UFC Vegas 43 Preview: Tate vs. Vieira Odds, Picks, and Prediction
The UFC returns to the Apex Center after three tremendous Saturday’s in a row of high-level mixed martial arts action. UFC Vegas 43 will be headlined by a women’s bantamweight clash between former Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha “Cupcake” Tate and number seven ranked contender Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira. This main event is something of a regression to the mean after-fight fans were treated to three weekends of elite-level main events. However, this fight has massive stakes and potential title implications within the thin women’s bantamweight division.
UFC Vegas 43: Tate vs. Vieira Odds
Miesha Tate returned from a near five-year layoff to a relatively soft landing against Marion Reneau, a 44-year-old physical education teacher with a 9-7 professional record who entered the bout on a four-fight losing skid. Tate has now gotten her feet wet in the division, stopping Reneau with strikes at the beginning of the third frame. Ketlen Vieira on the other hand made her first UFC appearance one month before Miesha began her extended hiatus. While Miesha was away, focusing on building a family and serving the ONE Championship organization in an executive capacity, Ketlen has been accruing a 5-2 record in the organization and training full time with Nova Uniao in Brazil.
When oddsmakers opened betting lines on this main event, Vieira received the favorite distinction at a price tag of -160 (~61.5% implied) while the come back on Miesha Tate was +140 (~41.7% implied). Currently the market average price on Ketlen Vieira has dropped to -117 (~53.9% implied) while the market average price on Tate has shortened to -105 (~51.2% implied.) The best market price available for Ketlen Vieira is -110 (~52.4% implied) on Caesars Sports Book, meaning the price is down about 9 percentage points from the market opener. The best market price on Miesha Tate at present is +100 (50% implied) on Draftkings Sportsbook.
I believe there are several factors that have caused this price to move so significantly since the market opened. Firstly, I believe recency bias may be a significant part of this price discovery. Ketlen lost her last fight against Yana Kunitskaya (13-5) via Unanimous Decision as a significant favorite (>70% implied win probability). Conversely, Miesha is coming off of a decisive victory over Marion Reneau. These recent results are almost certainly part of the public rationale for backing Miesha Tate at dog odds. The second factor influencing this line is the perceived cardio advantage on the side of Miesha Tate. Tate has not been scheduled for five rounds since her 1st round loss to Amanda Nunes (12-4) at UFC 200 in July of 2016. Vieira has never been scheduled for a five-round bout, and has shown a propensity to slow down in the third round of several of her UFC bouts. Finally, I believe that Miesha Tate is a fan favorite, a well known commodity, and the biggest star on this fight card. For perspective, Tate has 2.1 million followers on Instagram compared to fewer than fifty-thousand followers for Vieira. Whenever the public is significantly more aware of one quantity than another, it makes them more likely to support the name they know, especially with an underdog price.
The reason this is a compelling matchup is because of the stylistic dynamics. Vieira is probably the faster starter of the two, liking to get in her opponent’s face, throwing committed straight punches and overhands as single strikes and big hooking combinations to the head and body when her opponents cover up. She also likes to crash the pocket, force clinch situations, and press opponents into the fence. Ketlen can find takedown opportunities both proactively in the clinch and reactively when opponents crash in to clinch with her as Miesha may want to do. Vieira has a background in Judo (evident in her fights), a Brazilian national-level championship pedigree in wrestling (2009), and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Ketlen also has the more natural and powerful striking game of the two in my opinion.
Miesha Tate is a primary wrestler and grappler with a wide variety of takedown finishes (elevating singles and doubles, running the pipe on the high crotch, duck-under back takes, etc.) and a somewhat functional clinch striking game. She has fairly solid ground and pound and guard passing. Her range striking is not very lethal, but she has decent evasive movement and in and out blitzing entries that help disguise her level changes at range. The single biggest perceived advantage for Miesha in the matchup has to be cardio, as she has more five-round experience and was able to secure a late finish in her most recent UFC outing.
Analysis
The UFC made this matchup to stress test two possibilities as far as I am concerned. In Ketlen Vieira, they see some raw potential and athletic gifts, but I am sure the organization felt similarly to the fans regarding the disappointing performance against Yana Kunitskaya. This represents a chance for Ketlen to get her career and contendership status back on track with a win over a marquee name and a former champion. Conversely, Miesha Tate was given a soft landing in her return to the organization, but she will now have to sink or swim with the division that she absented herself from for 5 years. Tate showed off some improvements technically and tactically in her victory over Reneau, but the style matchup benefited her tremendously. Now she is being given one of the most “winnable” fights in the top ten of the division, but Ketlen may be able to match Tate in her normal comfort zones within the fight (i.e. the clinch, wrestling & grappling exchanges) and challenge her in her areas of typical deficiency (striking, especially defensively). If anyone is to find an early finish in this matchup, I would suspect it would be Ketlen Vieira, who has fairly powerful (albeit a bit sloppy) combination striking and a competent submission offense. Vieira is a sneaky grappler who will attack from guard if she is stuck underneath; she will also dive roll for leg entanglements, which could create problems for Miesha who favors standing passing when she has a grounded opponent. The longer the fight lasts, the more likely that Vieira will slow down, giving Tate a chance to rally in Rd. 3, 4, and 5. Much of Tate’s win equity in this matchup is tied to a late finish or a DEC victory in my opinion.
I expect that Ketlen Vieira will enter the weekend a relatively unknown prospect, and emerge a women’s bantamweight contender. Miesha Tate feasted on a very beatable opponent in her last bout, but she is still something of a relic from a bygone era in the sport. Tate’s only relevant win over a modern contender at women’s bantamweight is Holly Holm in March of 2016. Jessica Eye, Sara McMann, Marion Reneau and Liz Carmouche are no longer relevant UFC contenders, but they represent the bulk of Tate’s professional wins since 2014. Meanwhile Ketlen Vieira has been fighting ranked bantamweight contenders throughout Tate’s absence, accruing wins over Cat Zingano (who defeated Tate in 2013), Sijara Eubanks, and Sara McMann (SUB2). When the fight begins, I expect Vieira to be more active and confident striking at range. I expect Tate to try to force her way into grappling exchanges, at which point I expect Vieira to counter her with judo throws into top position. From there, I would not be surprised to see Vieira control from top or advance positions towards a finish.
Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Ketlen Vieira defeats Miesha Tate via Finish in Rd. 2 (either positional ground and pound or a submission). I believe Ketlen will have the more modern, effective Brazilian jiu jitsu game, and may be able to catch Miesha in a leg entanglement or in a scrambling transition.
Best Bets: If you like Miesha in this spot, I think the best way to target this fight is to bet Miesha 4/5/DEC on Fanduel Sportsbook at +160 (38.5% implied). Vieira has only been finished one time in her professional career by a stiff left hook from Irene Aldana in the first round of a back and forth striking affair. Miesha has a propensity for late finishes, recording 6 out of her 11 career finishes in the 3rd round or later. If you want to cover all your bases, I would bet Miesha Rd. 3 @+2600 for a small poke and Miesha 4/5/DEC as the core play.
If you’re like me and you like Ketlen Vieira in this spot, I would try to hold tight and wait for a plus money figure to appear by her name before locking in action. It is possible sharp action will prevent Miesha from becoming a large favorite, but I think the public action on Miesha will be significant this weekend. When Miesha last fought the public moved the line 40.6% in her favor according to best fight odds. Ketlen at -115 is already about 20% drop from the market opener. I expect that as fight time gets closer, Ketlen’s money line will get more and more appealing.
In terms of Vieira props that catch my eye, FanDuel Sportsbook is holding Vieira Rd. 1/2/3 at +310. Vieira Inside the Distance is at +260 market wide, and I don’t hate that price tag. I think Vieira SUB is most likely but at +500 there is a lot less meat on the bone than I would like.
Sneaky Props:
- Fight Ends by SUB +280 via FanDuel Sportsbook. (both ladies primarily submission finishers; danger is both should be defensively responsible when fresh).
- Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance is market wide at plus money. (Have to acknowledge the trend of main events going the distance, especially women’s 5 round fights. However, I think the cardio concerns on the Vieira side and lack of recent data on Tate vs. credible fighters leaves FDGTD an interesting poke at plus money.
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