UFC Vegas 47 Props — Monkey Knife Fight Preview and Picks
This weekend the UFC returns to the Apex Center for a middleweight main event showdown between Jack “The Joker” Hermansson and rising contender Sean Strickland. Monkey Knife Fight has a daily fantasy games that offer unique opportunities to target the main event as well as other fights on the card. Depending on how you envision the main event playing out, there could be tremendous value on the over or under on projected strikes landed in the main event.
UFC Vegas 47 Monkey Knife Fight Preview
Current projections for the main event are 132.5 total strikes landed for Sean Strickland vs. 84.5 total strikes landed for Jack Hermansson. If you anticipate that this fight will end in an early finish on either side (particularly an early Jack Hermansson SUB) then the value on the under for Strickland’s high strike total would seem obvious. However, if like me, you anticipate this fight will play out over four or five rounds on the feet and mostly at distance, then you would be looking towards the OVER on strike totals for Sean Strickland.
According to UFC Stats dot com, Sean Strickland landed 221 total strikes against Uriah Hall (over 5 rounds), 106 against Brendan Allen (less than 2 completed rounds), 109 vs. Court McGee over 3 rounds, and 113 against Alex Garcia over 3 rounds. Sean Strickland is very likely to throw and land at a very high clip if this fight stays on the feet because he is a jab first fighter with solid pace, a come-forward style, and a willingness to exchange in the pocket. His lowest number of strikes landed in his recent middleweight run was 84 strikes landed on 182 attempts over three rounds against Krystof Jotko. Usman and Ponzinibbio were the only fighters who were able to effectively mute Strickland’s volume over the course of a 3 round fight, but it was also much earlier in his career.
On the other side, we have Jack Hermansson, a historically tough and durable middleweight with an elite top game and a dangerous arsenal of submission threats and ground and pound. However, Jack’s game is largely tied to his wrestling attack; when it is successful, he tends to be successful. When his wrestling fails, his volume striking approach is typically insufficient to keep his opponents off of him.
Despite landing 139 strikes on 365 attempts against Marvin Vettori, he was out-landed by more than 60 strikes (Marvin was 202/376). Against Jacare Souza in 2019, Jack threw a baffling 496 total strikes en route to landing a career high 256 strikes over five rounds. In both of his scheduled five round fights that saw the five round distance, Jack landed 50+ strikes more than projected in this fight, including in the losing effort vs. Vettori. I can see this fight playing out largely the same way, where Sean is able to prevent takedowns and force Jack into a high volume striking battle with a high rate of exchange. If that is the case, I think both men can easily clear their striking total barring an early finish on either side.
Lately we have been seeing main events go the distance more often than not, and Strickland despite being a 2 to 1 favorite is not known for being an exceptional finisher. Despite appearing to have finishing opportunities vs. Uriah Hall, Strickland opted to continue the fight, peppering him with low power shots and simple punching volume. I have seen Jack get busted up by the same approach from Vettori, so I expect Strickland to tailor his approach towards keeping Jack upright and at the end of his active jab.
The picks:
- Over 132.5 strikes landed for Sean Strickland
- Over 84.5 strikes landed for Jack Hermansson
Bonus
I think that Carlston Harris is a proven finisher with solid grappling, passable wrestling and dangerous, powerful striking. His current fantasy point projection is shockingly low at 28.5 points projected given that he has secured two first round finishes in the UFC. His opponent is a hyped prospect with solid skills but a relatively unproven game with potential liabilities in the clinch that favor an opportunistic club and sub-threat like Carlston Harris. I have interest in this fantasy score over 28.5.
Also, a lot of people expect Punahele Soriano to find the KO this weekend when he takes on the relatively untested Nick Maximov. If you support that line of thinking, then there may be value on the Under 68.5 strikes. In Puna’s three UFC bouts, he has failed to cover this projection. He landed 26/46 vs. Piechota, 32/69 vs. Dusko Todorovic, and 66/149 vs. Brendan Allen in his last loss.
Bottom line here is that when Puna is landing, he has the power to shut someone’s lights off and end the fight early. However, he has also shown some propensity to slow down (no surprise given the muscular frame) and that is also a path to him failing to cover this strike total. The only fighter he covered this number against was Jamie Pickett on Contender Series in a wrestling heavy performance. Against a seasoned grappler like Maximov, it is less likely Puna will be striking readily if he is in top position. If he ends up in the bottom position, his numbers are also likely to be muted.
Bonus Picks:
- Carlston Harris over 28.5 Fantasy Points
- Punahele Soriano Under 68.5 Strikes landed
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