Vikings vs. Rams Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Vikings vs. Rams Odds
| Vikings Odds | -2.5 |
| Rams Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Date | Monday, January 13, 2025 |
| Time | 8:00 PM ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NFL Wild Card Weekend will come to a close with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on ESPN and ABC.
The Vikings finished the regular season 14-3, but one of those defeats came at the hands of the Rams back in Week 8. The Rams won 5 of their final 6 regular season games, with the lone loss coming in Week 18 with the vast majority of their starters resting.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
Due to the ongoing fires in the greater Los Angeles region, tonight’s game will be played in Arizona at State Farm Stadium, not at Sofi Stadium, where the Rams typically play their home games.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Darnold seeing ghosts?
Did the Lions provide the NFL with a blueprint on how to slow down this potent Vikings offense? In Week 18, Sam Darnold completed only 4-of-18 pass attempts when under pressure. It was the most Darnold had been pressured in a single game at any point this season.
The key thing to note is that Darnold handled pressure relatively well during the regular season. Like every quarterback, he saw his numbers drop off when under pressure – Darnold had a 73.7% completion rate and a 22-to-7 TD-to-interception ratio when kept clean, compared to a 49.7% completion rate and a 13-to-5 TD-to-interception ratio when under pressure.
However, relative to his peers, Darnold’s production wasn’t bad at all. He ranked 3rd among qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt and 3rd in passer rating when under pressure this season. His turnover-worthy play rate also ranked inside the top 10.
In the first meeting between the Vikings and Rams this season, Darnold completed 7-of-10 passes for 95 yards when facing pressure. Notably, he also lost his starting left tackle midway through that game. All of this is to say, Darnold is capable of a bounce-back performance.
Pat Jones II ruled OUT
The most notable injury news for the Vikings remains the continued absence of Pat Jones II, who is 3rd on the team with 7 sacks and 9 tackles for loss this season. Jones suffered a knee injury in Week 17 against the Packers, forcing him to leave the game early. He hasn’t played since that point.
EDGE Dallas Turner has seen an expanded role down the stretch, but his production doesn’t match that of Jones. Turner has played 25+ snaps in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games but has only 2 sacks in that span.
Even more alarming for this unit has been their second-half regression in efficiency metrics. Since Week 13, the Vikings’ defense ranks 9th in EPA/play but only 23rd in success rate. On a down-to-down basis, they have been worse than the league average against both the run and the pass during that stretch. This is an area to watch against a Rams offense that ranks in the top half of the NFL in success rate on the ground and through the air in that same time period.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Stafford looking to build upon recent postseason success
Since joining the Rams in 2021, Matthew Stafford is 4-1 in the postseason, with his lone defeat coming by a single point on the road against the Lions last January. Stafford threw for 367 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in that loss.
In 5 playoff games with Sean McVay as his head coach, Stafford has yet to have a game with fewer than 2 touchdown passes and has only 1 game with fewer than 283 passing yards. He’s posted a 50% success rate or better in each of those 5 games.
Tonight, he has arguably his best receiving corps yet, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as his top two options. His ground attack is also superior to the one that helped him lead the Rams to the Super Bowl. This offense is rested after sitting their starters in Week 18 and should look very good against a declining Minnesota defense.
What to expect from Rams’ defense
The Rams’ defense mostly struggled during the regular season, allowing the 6th-highest rate of opponent drives to reach the red zone. However, once in the red zone, this unit allowed a touchdown only 50% of the time – the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
There is also some evidence to suggest that the Rams’ early-season defensive struggles against the pass are behind them. From Week 12 to Week 17, the Rams ranked a respectable 15th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate against opposing aerial attacks.
Still, they ended the regular season having allowed the 5th-most completions of 20+ yards. This will be an area to watch tonight.
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction
This matchup features no shortage of offensive talent. Darnold had the 6th-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season, helping Justin Jefferson amass the 2nd-most receiving yards in the league. On the other side of the action, Nacua had 990 receiving yards in only 11 games and is joined by a very capable WR2 (Kupp).
Neither of these defenses have been elite, by any measure, during the second half of the season. Both of these head coaches are offensive maestros who are likely to exploit some of those defensive vulnerabilities, and they have the personnel capable of executing their game plan. There might be an opportunity to jump in live at a better number, but the over should have a good chance to cash.
PICK: OVER 47.5 (-112, DraftKings)
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