Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Vikings vs. Broncos Odds
| Vikings Odds | +2.5 |
| Broncos Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 19 |
| Time | 8:20 PM ET |
| TV | NBC |
The Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos will meet on Sunday Night Football this evening in a matchup of surging teams. Minnesota enters play on a 5-game winning streak, which has catapulted them to a 6-4 record. Denver has won 3 games in a row and can improve to .500 with a win in Week 11.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Broncos as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 41.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Minnesota Vikings
What to expect from Josh Dobbs
Josh Dobbs is 2-0 since being acquired by the Vikings prior to the trade deadline, having completed 43-of-64 pass attempts for 3 touchdowns. In those 2 games, Dobbs ranks 7th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 10th in success rate. However, his 7.1 air yards per attempt ranks 22nd, with the team placing significant emphasis on the short passing game as Dobbs gets acclimated to a new playbook.
Dobbs has run for at least 44 yards in each of his 2 games with the Vikings, giving Kevin O’Connell’s offense a dual-threat signal caller for the first time during his tenure as head coach. Denver’s defense figures to limit Dobbs’ ability to make plays with his legs, having held Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to 33 total yards rushing across the last 2 weeks. Still, Dobbs has handled pressure well in recent weeks and has done a good job protecting the football. He has a high floor for tonight’s matchup against the Broncos.
Minnesota defense playing at a high level
From Week 6 to Week 10, Minnesota’s defense ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 10th in success rate. The Vikings have been particularly strong against the pass, ranking 6th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate against the pass. According to The Athletic, defensive coordinator Brian Flores has called Cover 0 at the highest rate in the NFL in 2023, which is likely to give Russell Wilson issues. Only Jalen Hurts has a worse EPA per dropback against Cover 0 this year than Wilson.
The primary weakness of this unit is their inability to consistently stop opposing ground attacks, ranking 27th in success rate against the run. Javonte Williams has received 48 carries across his last 2 games and figures to be plenty involved once again on Sunday night.
Denver Broncos
Sean Payton taking the air out of the football
Since Week 5, Russell Wilson has not averaged more than 6.8 yards per pass attempt in any individual game. Following a disastrous 70-20 defeat against the Dolphins, the Broncos have converted to an extremely conservative offensive approach, emphasizing the ground game and the short passing attack.
During that stretch, Wilson ranks 31st out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in air yards per attempt. Facing a tough Minnesota defense on Sunday, it is likely that Wilson will be on a short leash once again.
Denver defense making life tough on opposing quarterbacks
Following a disastrous beginning to the season, the Broncos’ defense has played well across the last month of action. From Week 6 to Week 10, Denver’s defense ranked 10th in EPA/play. In that span, the Broncos allowed the 3rd-fewest points per game in the entire NFL (16.8) and were tied for the league lead in fewest touchdowns allowed (6). Opposing offenses have found the end zone on only 6-of-42 drives since Week 6, which ranks 4th-best in the NFL, according to PFF. Expect this unit to be well prepared again on Sunday.
Vikings vs. Broncos – Picks & Predictions
Since Week 6, Russell Wilson has the fewest air yards per pass attempt of any qualified quarterback in the NFL. In 2 games since joining the Vikings, Josh Dobbs ranks 21st in air yards per attempt. Both of these defenses have played extremely well in recent weeks. The Broncos have allowed only 16.8 points per game and a 14.2% touchdown rate since Week 6. During Minnesota’s 5-game winning streak, their defense ranks 3rd in EPA/play. Points are likely to be hard to come by for both teams in this matchup, making the under a worthwhile risk.
PICK: Under 42 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)