Vikings vs. Rams Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Vikings vs. Rams Odds
| Vikings Odds | -3 |
| Rams Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 48 |
| Date | Thursday, October 24th |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 8 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams from SoFi Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Vikings as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Sam Darnold is only 2-6 SU in his career on short rest. Worse yet for Minnesota fans, undefeated teams after suffering their first loss of the season SU, in Week 8 or later, are 22-28 ATS in their subsequent game. The trends are pro-Sean McVay on Thursday Night Football as well, with him being 13-6 ATS on short rest, including 5-1 ATS with Matthew Stafford as his quarterback in these instances.
Minnesota Vikings Preview
Darnold, Vikings offense coming back to earth?
From Week 1 to Week 4, Minnesota’s offense ranked 8th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate. However, since Week 5, they rank only 22nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. This past weekend against Detroit, Minnesota managed 383 yards of total offense, but that was driven almost exclusively by big plays. This unit was far less successful on a down-to-down basis, ranking 27th out of 30 teams in Week 7 in offensive success rate.
Perhaps the most alarming takeaway from the last 2 weeks is that Darnold hasn’t been great from a clean pocket. According to Pro Football Focus, Darnold was only 13-for-22 with no touchdowns and 1 interception in Week 5 against the Jets from a clean pocket. Against the Lions, Darnold was 17-for-21 but once again had a costly interception and no touchdowns in those situations.
Cashman ruled OUT
Minnesota’s star LB Blake Cashman has been ruled out, which will mark his 2nd consecutive absence. It’s difficult to overstate the importance of Cashman to this Vikings defense. Prior to getting hurt, Cashman was the team’s No. 1 tackler and tied for the team lead in passes defensed. He ranked 13th out of 72 qualified players at his position in coverage grade, playing a significant role in Minnesota’s ability to limit damage done by opposing tight ends and running backs.
Cashman was missed in Week 7 against the Lions, a game in which the Vikings’ defense allowed 7 receptions and 83 receiving yards combined to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery out of the backfield. That game marked the first time this season that Minnesota had allowed more than 32 receiving yards to any individual running back. Even after that poor showing, the Vikings’ pass defense still ranks 5th in DVOA against opposing backfields, but it’s a near certainty that they will regress in this area if Cashman doesn’t return to the field soon.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Kupp likely to return to the field in Week 8
WR Cooper Kupp was a full participant at each of the Rams’ practices this week and is expected to play. This will be the first time the Rams have Kupp on the field since he left the Week 2 game early due to injury.
In only about 5 quarters of football to begin the season, Kupp had already managed 18 receptions on 27 targets for 147 receiving yards and a touchdown. In his absence, the Rams’ offense has lacked big-play ability, ranking 24th in EPA/play, but they have still been pretty good on a down-to-down basis, ranking 9th in success rate. Kupp only further elevates this unit in both regards. He should be able to make an immediate impact for this group.
Reeder ruled OUT
Earlier this week, LB Troy Reeder was placed on injured reserve, making him unavailable for tonight’s primetime affair. Reeder isn’t a superstar in the middle of the field by any means, but he ranks 3rd on the Rams’ defense in tackles this season and has played at least 51 snaps in each of the team’s first 6 games. He is a notable loss.
In his absence, the Rams could turn to rookie Omar Speights. Speights went undrafted out of LSU this past summer and has been used primarily on special teams during the first half of the season. LB Jake Hummel, undrafted out of Iowa in 2022, is another option, though Hummel has been primarily used on special teams as well.
Vikings vs. Rams Prediction
It certainly doesn’t feel right, betting on a 2-4, injury-ravaged team on a short week, especially when they are facing a 5-1 opponent that is a field goal away from still being undefeated. However, there are reasons to believe that Minnesota has been punching above their weight class to begin the season, and it’s more than a little bit concerning that Sam Darnold and company have regressed so sharply in offensive success rate in recent weeks. The Rams offense should look significantly better with Cooper Kupp back on the field, and the absence of LB Blake Cashman for Minnesota is significant. Taking the home team with the points makes sense here. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rams pull an outright upset to begin Week 8.
PICK: Rams +3 (-119, DraftKings)
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