WM Phoenix Open Weather Report and Forecast
We are headed to Scottsdale, Arizona, for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this week, and right out of the gate on the first day, we get the most interesting golf weather forecast I’ve ever had the privilege of making.
As usual in my PGA weather forecasts, we’re focusing more on wind than rain. While rain can halt play if it’s heavy enough, it also helps soften and slow the course, which helps as much as it hurts.
With wind, there’s no helpful side; it’s all negative impact. And the impact can lead to dramatic differences in scoring. My goal is always to try to highlight the time frame with the lightest winds and the time frame with the strongest winds to see if there’s a cumulative advantage for one wave over another. You can then use this to your advantage when making your DFS and sports betting picks.
WM Phoenix Open Weather Forecast
Thursday, February 5th
There’s a lot to digest here, partly because the weather itself is fascinating on Thursday, and partly because the weather on all of the other days is essentially irrelevant and quiet. If you want the generic forecast, it’s “winds are highest in the late morning and are significantly lower by the late afternoon.” If you want the full nitty-gritty forecast details and analysis (which I think is fascinating), read on: There is a big split on what forecast models and various weather forecast sites are showing for the first round of this tournament, so let me lay out what I think is happening. Global forecast models with slightly lower resolution (GFS, Euro, etc.), which are also used on sites like weather.com and AccuWeather, are showing breezy conditions, but nothing all that alarming… and they are showing that the wind is fairly uniform across the greater Phoenix/Scottsdale area.
Higher-resolution forecast models (the HRRR and the NAM) are working with greater detail, and those details include showing a microclimate impact of higher winds in certain locations. Specifically, with winds out of the east, we are funneling wind through the higher elevation mountains and mountain passes east of Scottsdale. Where those winds come out, we are seeing powerful wind gusts of around 40 mph on Thursday morning. I don’t know for certain if those microclimate winds specifically impact the course or not, though my guess based on these high-res forecast models is that they do indeed.
My second key takeaway: I think regardless of whether the strong winds reach the course or not, the general idea in the forecast remains the same: Winds are highest in the morning, especially the late morning, and they taper off fairly dramatically by the afternoon, especially the late afternoon. So, whether they see the 40+ mph wind gusts from the nearby mountains or not, the weather pattern still favors a Thurs PM / Fri AM build, and the only question is the extent of the edge that it gives you. If global models are correct, it will give you a slight edge. If higher-resolution forecast data is correct in that the winds do indeed reach the course, the advantage is fairly significant. The later you can golf on Thursday, the better off you are; everything else is largely irrelevant.
Friday, February 6th
With all the fun stuff out of the way, we are back to what we typically see here for this tournament: great golfing weather. Winds should be between 5-10 mph all day and gusts around 15 mph.
Saturday, February 7th
Another great day, warm temps, no rain, and winds between 5-10 mph sustained with slightly stronger gusts.
Sunday, February 8th
Closing it out with more great weather, winds hold in the 5-10 mph sustained range.
WM Phoenix Open Weather Thoughts
It’s all about Thursday. We could see very stout winds in the late morning with lighter winds in the afternoon, or we could see breezy winds in the late morning and lighter winds in the afternoon… either way, the key point is “lighter winds in the afternoon.” I think a Thurs PM / Friday AM build is preferred; the later you can golf on Thursday, the better off you are. Make sure you follow some of our PGA DFS experts for their favorite picks, and don’t forget to check out our PGA DFS optimizer, LineupHQ, to make the most of your builds!
For the latest info as the WM Phoenix Open forecast changes, stay tuned to @KevinRothWx on Twitter/X or check my main forecast page.
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Image Credit: Imagn