Watson’s Winning Edge: Divisional Round
Whats up Grinders! I hope that everyone had a very profitable Wild Card Weekend. Most of the players from last week’s article had a very nice showing in GPPs, especially Terrance Williams, who was only 7% owned in the FanDuel Million. It is the boom/bust plays like Williams that are so crucial to cashing in the upper tier of these large field tournaments.
This is the last significant week for daily fantasy football, so make those entries count! Just like last week, I will be playing mostly GPPs this weekend. I tend to use 3-4 different lineup variations when entering different tournaments.
Instead of outlining particular players to target, here is one lineup that I will be using this weekend in the FanDuel Saturday Million, along with the reasons why I am targeting each player.
Quarterback
Peyton Manning ($9,100): It’s hard to believe, but Peyton is actually priced below Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck this week and can also be considered a “contrarian” play. During the last month, the Broncos have relied heavily on the legs of C.J. Anderson and have been operating as a run-first offense. As great as Anderson has been, I feel the Broncos are going to let Peyton shoulder the load and open up the offense. The Colts have been better at defending the pass in recent weeks (they completely shut down Andy Dalton last week), but this defense is hardly a match for one of the best QBs the NFL has ever seen. This game also features an O/U of 54 and is likely going to be a lot closer than most people believe. I believe Peyton will be the highest scoring QB this week and will be essential to a winning GPP lineup.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch ($8,900): Due to his high price and less-than-stellar matchup, Lynch is going to be overlooked by most grinders, making him a great GPP play. Even though the Panthers have defended the run well, Lynch has shown that he can run over most defenses in this league, and he always seems to shine when the bright lights are on him. Although I also like Eddie Lacy against the Cowboys, I feel that Lynch has a much higher ceiling than Lacy and will be lower owned, therefore making him the more attractive GPP option.
Shane Vereen ($5,200): Vereen hasn’t done much of anything in recent weeks and has had a disappointing season overall. While the Ravens have defended the run well, they are giving up over four receptions per game to the RB position and have been putrid at defending the pass all season. I expect Brady to exploit this matchup and feature Vereen in the passing game.
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas ($9,100): I am pairing Demaryius with Peyton because I feel that they have the highest ceiling of any QB/WR combo this week. His matchup against Vontae Davis is a little worrying, but Demaryius is the one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL and can break off a big play at any time. His explosiveness and big play ability make him my #1 WR this week.
T.Y. Hilton ($8,400): Hilton put up 6/103 against the Bengals last week, but he dropped two potential TD passes, preventing him from having a monster score. He has shown the ability to make big plays (essential to winning a GPP ) and has become Andrew Luck’s go-to guy all season. Hilton will be relied upon heavily in this matchup, so I like his chances for a huge performance.
Cole Beasley ($5,300): Although Beasley put up pedestrian numbers (4/63) against the Lions, he has become an integral part of the Cowboys passing game and has shown he can make big catches in key pressure situations. He faces the Packers, who have given up eight TDs to the WR position in the last five games. With Dez Bryant likely to draw double coverage all game, Beasley will get plenty of opportunities to produce in this matchup.
Tight End
Richard Rodgers ($4,600): The Cowboys’ main defensive deficiency all year has been defending the tight end position. They are giving up an average of eight receptions per game to TEs, and while I don’t love Rodgers’ particular skill set, he has the ability to pay off his low price with a short red zone TD. He is your typical boom/bust play.
Kicker
Connor Barth ($4,700): While I usually advocate the selecting the lowest priced kicker, I am making an exception for Barth. To put it simply, he has been on an absolute tear, kicking 15 FGs in his five games played. Kicking at home in the high altitude, Barth is an easy bet to get you double-digit points.
D/ST
Green Bay Packers ($4,700): The Packers defense has been mediocre all season, but they have shown the ability to sack the QB and make big plays on special teams. While the Seahawks represent the #1 overall play, the Packers’ price and potential for a special teams TD makes them a high upside play at home.
It has truly been an honor writing these articles this season. Thank you to RotoGrinders for the amazing opportunity, and thank you to the readers for all your great comments and feedback. If you would like to contact me on Twitter, my handle is JoeyWats19. Best of luck to all of you this weekend.