Watson’s Winning Edge: Week 14
Whats up Grinders! I’m very honored to be writing my very first article for RotoGrinders. Thank you for making me a part of this winning team.
Most of you know me from the FanDuel commercial as Joe Watson, Joeywats19, or the guy who buttons his top collar button. Mark my words, it will become a trend.
Before I start my analysis for Week 14, I wanted to take this time and thank my beautiful wife Kerri for believing in me and my endeavors, and most importantly for making me a better man. I could not have done any of this without your love and support. I also wanted to thank my family and friends for always being there for me and for being a great support system. Love you all.
Now, let’s get to Week 14 of the NFL. Week 13 of the NFL season was one of the highest scoring weeks to date and I expect that trend to continue into this week. Here a few players that I will be targeting when putting together my lineups for cash games (50/50) and GPPs (guaranteed prize pools).
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers ($10,400 FD, $9,800 DK): Rodgers is having one of the more amazing seasons in recent memory with a 32:2 TD:INT ratio. He now faces off against an Atlanta defense that is giving up an average of 285 passing yards per game. With an O/U set at 56, I expect Rodgers to carve up this Atlanta secondary, and he should easily pay off his high price tag. For your cash games, just pencil Rodgers in and enjoy the Monday Night fireworks.
Russell Wilson ($8,500 FD, $7,700 DK): If you do not feel like spending up for Rodgers, Wilson is your next best option. He has been a model of consistency lately, averaging 70 rushing yards per game over his last four contests. He gets to face the Eagles this week, a team giving up 23 fantasy points per game to the position. His upside and price are too hard to ignore in this matchup, and I like him as a nice pivot from Rodgers if you want to pay up at another position in your cash games.
Cam Newton ($7,800 FD, $6,700 DK): This pick could certainly blow up in my face and I might be banned from writing on RotoGrinders, but I like Newton as a GPP play this week. His ownership is not going to be high because of his dud of a performance last week. Cam should be able to rush for over 50 yards against this porous New Orleans defense, who are giving up 21.5 FP/G to the QB position. Pairing Cam up with Kelvin Benjamin could pay off nicely in large field GPPs.
Running Backs
Arian Foster ($8,700 FD, $9,300 DK): After sitting out the last two games with a groin injury, Foster got back on track with a 19-point fantasy performance last week. He looks to be healthy and gets to face the Jaguars, who have allowed the 5th most rushing yards per game this season. With 9 TDs over his last 6 games, Foster is must start for cash games.
Mark Ingram ($7,700 FD, $6,500 DK): After a couple of forgettable seasons, Ingram is finally starting to put together a great season. It couldn’t have come a better time, being this a contract year. His 122-yard rushing performance against the Steelers last week gave Ingram four 100-yard rushing performances on the season. He now gets to face Carolina, a team he torched earlier this year for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Fire him up with confidence.
Dan “Boom” Herron ($6,400 FD, $5,400 DK): Although Herron’s touches last week were disappointing, he sure made the most of them by busting a 49-yard TD run. Although Trent “I run for 3 yards” Richardson is still involved, it is clear that Herron possesses superior skills and has a lot of upside, which Richardson does not. I expect his touches to increase, and he gets a Cleveland defense that ranks among the bottom in run defense. Fire up Herron as a high upside GPP play.
Isaiah Crowell ($6,500 FD, $5,000 DK): Crowell showed up on the Wednesday report with a hip injury, but has since resumed practicing. It is no secret that the Browns are very frustrated with Terrance West’s fumbling issues, so this opens this door even further for Crowell to become the Browns’ bell cow back. The Colts have had issues defending the run all season, so I believe the Browns coaching staff will continue to Feed the Crow. I love him as value play on both FD and DK.
Wide Receivers
Jordy Nelson ($8,900 FD, $8,100 DK): Some might be scared of using Nelson because of his two-reception performance last Sunday and his upcoming matchup against Marcus Trufant, but I won’t be. Nelson showed you what he can do when he beat Revis last week on a 45-yard TD catch. Atlanta is the 27th ranked defense against wide receivers this year, and I expect Nelson to win his individual matchup against Trufant. It also doesn’t hurt that this is the highest expected point total of the week (56). He is my #1 wide receiver this week.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,200 FD, $7,700 DK): ODB has played amazingly in his rookie campaign. In his last two games he has 17 receptions for 236 yards. He now faces a Titans secondary that is just plain atrocious. They actually made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like Dan Marino last week and have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than running backs, even with that terrible run defense. ODB’s price has decreased by $300 and I fully expect him to carve up the Titans secondary. Expect a monster performance.
Kelvin Benjamin ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK): Benjamin’s performance was mediocre last week, but what I did like is that the targets are still there every week. He gets to face New Orleans secondary that is very generous to wide receivers, and having Keenan Lewis banged up all year doesn’t help their cause. I like Benjamin more for GPPs this week than cash games, and if you are going that route, I would definitely pair him up with Cam Newton to maximize the upside in this matchup.
Kenny Stills ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK): Since the injury to Brandin Cooks, Stills’ role in this offense has increased dramatically. He had 5/162 and a TD last week and 8/98 in Week 12. That is massive production from a wide receiver who was off the grid a few short weeks ago. His price has increased a little this week, but he faces a Carolina secondary that is ranked 24th overall and clearly will not be able to stop Drew Brees and the Saints offense. If you need to pay the bills, play Kenny Stills.
Cheaper plays I like include Jarvis Landry, Mike Wallace and Marqise Lee.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham ($7,100 FD, $6,500 DK): I know he put up a big fat donut last week, but I don’t think we are going to see another game where Graham doesn’t even have a target. I expect Graham to be peppered with targets this week and put up a monster performance. He also comes at a big discount in comparison to Rob Gronkowski. Plug him in to your lineups and move on.
Travis Kelce ($5,300 FD, $4,500 DK): Nothing has been more frustrating to me this year than Kelce’s usage in Andy Reid’s offense. I am so sick of of watching Anthony Fasano vulture Kelce’s TDs. On that note, he did see over 80% of the snaps last week and he gets to face Arizona, who give up 15 fantasy points per game to tight ends. I’m expecting a bigger role this week, because the pathetic lounge singer act of Frankie Hammond and Junior Hemmingway are just not getting it done. Kelce is better suited for GPPs this week.
I always recommend going cheap at Kicker and Defense, so this week I will be using Shayne Graham and the Broncos Defense.
I really hope that you all enjoyed the analysis, and I wish you all the best of luck this weekend.