Watson’s Winning Edge: Week 15
Whats up Grinders! Thank you for all your great responses to the article last week. There are so many intelligent writers and analysts on RotoGrinders, so to be able to contribute in any fashion is a great honor.
I hope you all had a great Week 14. With the exception of the New Orleans Saints, the picks made last week returned very nice value, and I hope that all of you who read my article utilized them.
Let’s now move on to Week 15 of the NFL season. Here are a few players that I will be targeting when putting together my lineups for cash games (50/50) and GPPs (guaranteed prize pools).
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck ($10,100 FD, $9,800 DK): With Aaron Rodgers playing against an above-average defense and Peyton Manning operating a run-heavy offense, Luck becomes your top option if you want to spend up at the quarterback position. To put it simply, Luck has had an amazing season. This week he faces off against the Texans, who he dominated earlier this year for 370 yards and 3 TDs, and I expect more of the same this week. Luck is very expensive but is a reliable option for your cash games.
Ben Roethlisberger ($8,700 FD, $7,900 DK): Big Ben has been on fire the last two weeks, amassing 785 yards and 5 TDs. He now gets an early Christmas gift and gets to face an Atlanta Falcons defense that has given up 24 fantasy points per game to the position in the last five weeks. Even though he hasn’t been as productive on the road this year, this matchup against the Falcons, who have no pass rush, is too good to pass up. If you do not want to spend up for Luck, Big Ben is a great option.
Jay Cutler ($8,600 FD, $7,900 DK): Cutler has been one of the most frustrating players to watch in recent memory. His tendency to implode and overall bad attitude make him very hard to like. However, I love Cutler’s matchup this week, as he faces a New Orleans defense that just let Cam Newton march all over them. They are giving up over 25 points fantasy points per game to the position, and this game features the highest O/U of the week at 54.5. While the interceptions are frustrating, I expect Cutler to throw a lot in this matchup, so he makes for a high upside GPP play.
Eli Manning ($7,500 FD, $6,400 DK): Eli has had a subpar season for the most part, but back in Week 3 he carved up the Redskins for 4 passing TDs and a rushing TD. The Redskins secondary has been giving up 281 passing yards per game and they now possess the worst coverage grade in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. I think this is another favorable spot for Eli and I’m expecting another productive outing. He is a great GPP play this week.
Mark Sanchez ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK): Sanchez looked terrible against the Legion of Boom last week, but gets a much friendlier matchup against the Cowboys. They have given up the 18th most fantasy points per game to QBs and Sanchez looked great against them on Thanksgiving. If you’re not paying up for Luck or Big Ben, I like Sanchez as a value play for cash games.
If Julio Jones plays this week, Matt Ryan makes for a great value play as well
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell ($9,600 FD, $9,600 DK): This has been an amazing three-game stretch for Bell (200 total yards and at least one TD in each outing). He possesses a great combination of patience and decisiveness and is compiling one of the greatest seasons a running back has had since the days of LT. He now gets to face the most generous run defense in the Atlanta Falcons, who just gave up over 200 yards to Eddie Lacy and James Starks last week. He is very expensive but should be a building block when formulating your cash game and GPP lineups.
Matt Forte ($9,000 FD, $9,000 DK): If you do not want to pay up for Bell, Forte represents a great pivot. With Brandon Marshall done for the year, Forte is going to be leaned on in both the run and passing game. The Saints are giving up the 5th most points to running backs, and with an O/U of 54.5, I can definitely see a multiple-TD game coming from Forte.
Justin Forsett ($7,700, $7,400 DK): While the Jaguars pass defense has improved in recent weeks, they still haven’t found a way to stop opposing running backs. The Ravens offensive line has been a main contributor in the rise of Justin Forsett this year, and I do not see that changing against the Jaguars, who rank in the bottom of run defense in the NFL. Fire him up and sleep like a baby.
Isaiah Crowell ($6,500 FD, $4,900 DK): Crowell’s rushing total last week (54 yards) was a little disappointing considering the matchup, but he was able to run in a touchdown to salvage his day. I think the Browns coaching staff was still a little concerned with the hip injury, because the touches between West and Crowell were distributed evenly. A great benefit for Crowell is the QB switch to Manziel – having a mobile QB helps the running game run more effectively. As of today, Crowell is practicing in full and I’m expecting a much bigger workload against the Bengals, who have been giving up 33 fantasy points per game in the last five weeks. Now, let’s all say it together: FEED THE CROW!!!
Chris Johnson ($5,300 FD, $3,600 DK): As a Jets fan, it has been very disappointing watching Chris Johnson, as well as everyone else on the team this year. However, this week Johnson gets to face his former team in a classic “revenge game”. Rex Ryan has always been known as a player’s coach, and last week against the Vikings, Geno Smith force fed the ball to Percy Harvin in his “revenge game”. While the revenge factor doesn’t hold water in most cases, I feel that it applies here. Johnson had 18 touches last week and will be given every opportunity to exact revenge on his former team. I would only use him in GPPs if you want to fit another stud into your lineup.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown ($9,100 FD, $8,700 DK): Over the last two seasons, I have considered Brown to be the “Rodney Dangerfield” of wide receivers, because he doesn’t get the respect and recognition that other top receivers in the NFL get. He is approaching his second straight season of 100+ receptions and looks unstoppable doing it. He faces the Falcons, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Just like last week with Jordy Nelson, his matchup against Trufant doesn’t scare me at all. Brown is as safe as they come in cash games.
Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500 FD, $8,400 DK): ODB was featured in the article last week and didn’t disappoint, going 11/130/1. He has totaled 28/366/3 in his last three games and has looked unstoppable doing it. He faces off against Washington, who have allowed the third-most receiving TDs to wide receivers and are rated as the worst secondary, according to Pro Football Focus. Expect another monster performance from ODB.
Alshon Jeffery ($8,400 FD, $8,200 DK): After Brandon Marshall’s unfortunate injury last week, Cutler peppered Jeffery with targets the rest of the game. I expect the trend to continue this week against a lackluster Saints defensive unit. It is likely that Keenan Lewis will be shadowing Jeffery, but Lewis has been banged up all year and Cutler is going to look for him in this matchup. I like Jeffery in all formats.
Sammy Watkins ($7,200 FD, $5,600 DK): After being hobbled by injury in his previous outings, Watkins ripped the Broncos for 7/127 and looked healthy while doing it. His price is very reasonable around the industry, and he gets to face a Green Bay secondary that just got lit up by the Falcons on MNF and are giving up over 45 fantasy points per game in the last five weeks. I like Watkins in this beatable matchup.
Jordan Matthews ($7,200 FD, $5,600 DK): Matthews is the exact same price as Watkins on both FD and DK and might arguably have an even better matchup. Despite his underwhelming performance against Seattle, Matthews has developed a great rapport with Sanchez under center. He scored a TD his last time out against Dallas and I fully expect him to take advantage of this matchup. Use him in all formats.
If Reggie Wayne and Julio Jones are declared inactive, Donte Moncrief and Harry Douglas become must plays in your cash games. If Wayne plays, I still like Moncrief as a GPP play.
Tight Ends
With Rob Gronkowski’s expensive price and Jimmy Graham’s lingering shoulder issues, I think this is a good week to save at TE.
Martellus Bennett ($6,200 FD, $5,900 DK): The absence of Brandon Marshall is going to open more opportunities for the rest of the Bears offense. Bennett cashed in for 12 receptions against Dallas last week and now faces New Orleans who just plain can’t stop anybody. He makes for a great play in your cash games and GPPs.
Travis Kelce ($5,400 FD, $4,600 DK): After 13 weeks of frustration for the most part, Andy Reid finally utilized Kelce the way we all thought he would all season. Kelce sliced up the Cardinals effortlessly for 7/110 and showed that he is the most talented option in the Chiefs passing game. Kelce gets the Raiders this week, who have been bad at defending the tight end position, giving up 14 fantasy points per game to the position. I like Kelce as a GPP play again this week.
Delanie Walker ($5,300 FD, $4,400 DK): Walker was disappointing last week due to poor QB play. It looks like Jake Locker is going to get the start this week, which bodes well for Walker, as Locker heavily targets him when he gets a chance to. Walker faces the Jets, who have allowed 12 TDs to opposing tight ends this season – he makes for a great GPP play.
I always recommend going cheap at Kicker and Defense, so this week I will be using Connor Barth and the Chiefs Defense.
I really hope that you all enjoyed the analysis, and I wish you all the best of luck this weekend.