Watson’s Winning Edge: Week 17
What’s up Grinders! I apologize for not being able to write an article last week. My wife and I welcomed our beautiful daughter, Adriana Joia, into the world. She came a few weeks early but is healthy and perfect in every way, and my wife and I could not be happier.
Now let’s move on to Week 17 of the NFL. Since most of you have finished your season long leagues, this is a great opportunity to delve into the world of DFS and experience it for the first time. The most important thing to remember about Week 17 is that you want to focus on players that have something to play for, whether it is a playoff berth, division title, or the #1 overall seed. The Colts, for example, have clinched a playoff berth and cannot move higher up in seeding, so there is a good chance they are going to rest their starters. I would avoid these types of situations and focus on other matchups.
Here are a few players that I will be targeting when putting together my lineups for cash games (50/50) and GPPs (guaranteed prize pools).
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan ($8,800 FD, $7,700 DK): Ryan has been on fire in recent weeks, throwing for 300+ yards in four straight games and totaling nine TDs. The Falcons now get to face off against the Panthers in an “epic showdown” for the NFC South title. With Steven Jackson recovering from a quad injury, Ryan will be relied upon heavily in this matchup, especially with a healthier Julio Jones in the fold again. Although the Panthers are only giving up 16 fantasy points per game in the last five weeks, I expect Ryan to excel in this matchup and throw for two or three TDs.
Cam Newton ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK): Newton finds himself in the same position as Ryan: win and in. In his last five games against Atlanta, Newton has averaged a whopping 29 fantasy points. Despite a car accident that caused him to miss Week 15, he has played very well in the second half of the season, and now, in a winner-take-all matchup, I’m banking on a great outing from Superman. Use him in all formats.
Eli Manning ($8,200 FD, $7,100 DK): It’s hard to believe, but Eli has been one of the hottest QBs in the NFL in recent weeks. While the amazing play of ODB has attributed to a lot of his success, Eli’s pocket presence and overall efficiency have been reminiscent of his Super Bowl days. There is nothing Eli wants to do more than torch his division rival in the worst way this week, especially after having a poor showing against them earlier in the season. I see a nice game from Eli in this beatable matchup.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell ($9,400 FD, $9,500 DK): Bell was held to under 100 total yards from scrimmage last week, but he is averaging an astounding 34 fantasy points per game over his last four contests. He torched the Bengals a few weeks ago for 50 fantasy points, and with a division title at stake, I expect another monster performance and feel that Bell is worth paying up for.
C.J. Anderson ($8,300 FD, $7,000 DK): If you do not want to pay up for Bell, Anderson comes at a nice discount, especially on DK where he is a must play. He gets to face the Raiders, who have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and have been giving up 28 FPG over the last four weeks. The Broncos are going to lean heavily on Anderson in this matchup, especially with Peyton Manning operating at less than 100%. Use him with confidence.
Jonathan Stewart ($6,600 FD, $5,700 DK): Since the injury to DeAngelo Williams, Stewart has looked great operating as the feature back, running for 352 yards and two TDs. The Falcons just cannot figure out how to stop the run, as they are giving up the most fantasy points per game to RBs. It does look like Williams is going to return this week, but it will not stop me from using Stewart, because Williams was largely ineffective even before his injury. With a division title/playoff berth on the line, Stewart gives the Panthers the best chance to win, and I think he’ll run all over Atlanta.
Matt Asiata ($6,400 FD, $5,000 DK): It is very hard to believe, but Asiata now has the third most rushing TDs in the NFL. He has become automatic at the goal line and now gets to face the Bears, who rank near the bottom in run defense and are giving up over 30 fantasy points per game in the last month. Bank on 80 yards from scrimmage and a rushing TD. Mark it down.
If Steven Jackson is declared inactive this week, Devonta Freeman ($5,100 FD, $3,600 DK) becomes a nice cheap option, a pick that would allow you to fit another stud into your lineup. He looked much better than Jacquizz Rodgers last week, rushing for 80 yards and a TD, and I think we’ll see him get a larger uptick in snaps if Jackson is out.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,200 FD, $9,600 DK): This is my third article for RotoGrinders and the third time that ODB is included. He is the hottest receiver in the NFL and no team can stop him right now, especially the Eagles, who give up more big plays than any other team. Plug him in and move on.
Julio Jones ($8,700 FD, $8,100 DK): Despite not being 100% last week, Jones ripped the Saints for seven receptions and 107 yards, and he consistently shows why he belongs in the elite category of NFL receivers. Even though the Panthers rank in the middle of the pack at defending the WR position, Julio is going to be relied on heavily in this matchup and should produce at an elite level. Pairing him up with Matt Ryan is a great option for GPPs.
Mike Evans ($7,600 FD, $6,100 DK): Evans’ lack of production in recent weeks has led to a small price decrease on both FD and DK, and it could not have come at a better time. The Saints rank 25th at defending the pass and do not have anyone that can stop Evans. I expect his ownership to be low, so I think he makes for a great GPP option.
Kelvin Benjamin ($7,400 FD, $6,200 DK): Benjamin was underwhelming last week but still led the team with 12 targets. Atlanta is giving up over 40 fantasy points per game to the WR position over the last month, and I look for Benjamin to be heavily targeted in this must win matchup for the Panthers.
Other receivers I like this week include Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Stills, Charles Johnson, and Marqise Lee.
Tight Ends
Antonio Gates ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK): Gates erupted last week against the 49ers for 7/92/2, keeping the Chargers’ playoff hopes alive. Although KC has been good at defending the TE position, this is a must win for the Chargers, so I expect Philip Rivers to heavily target his most dependable receiver in Gates. That being said, I would use him more for GPPs this week.
Greg Olsen ($6,400 FD, $5,900 DK): Despite having a bad outing last week, Olsen is having his most productive season in the NFL and is becoming one of the more reliable TEs in the league. I believe he’ll flourish in this matchup and that he’s a great bet to hit pay dirt this weekend. I love him for both cash games and GPPs.
Delanie Walker ($5,200 FD, $4,400 DK): With the Colts clinching a playoff berth and unable to move up to a higher seed, all signs point to Pagano resting his starters at some point in this contest. The Colts have been very generous to the TE position, and if the first unit sits, Walker should have a field day in this matchup. His price is very affordable, meaning he should be considered for all formats.
I always recommend going cheap at Kicker and Defense, so this week I will be using Shayne Graham and the Dolphins Defense.
I really hope that you all enjoyed the analysis, and I wish you all the best of luck this weekend.