Watson’s Winning Edge: Wild Card Weekend
What’s up Grinders! I hope that all of you had a very profitable Week 17 (Thank you, Eli and ODB!). It is hard to believe, but the NFL regular season has come to an end and we now move on to one of the most exciting weekends in all of professional sports: Wild Card Weekend.
Although I play more cash games (50/50) during the regular season and regard them as an essential bankroll builder, I tend to gravitate more to GPPs during the playoffs mainly because of the overall excitement factor. Both of my major GPP wins came during the playoffs last year and nothing can ever beat that level of excitement and fun. Also, I am comfortable playing more GPPs because I have built enough bankroll in cash games to the level where I am comfortable if I do lose most of my entries. Success in GPPs does not come easy, so only play more if your bankroll can handle it. I cannot stress that enough.
I tend to use 3-4 lineup variations when entering different tournaments. Instead of outlining particular players to target, here is one lineup that I will be using this weekend along with the reasons why I am targeting these players on FanDuel.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck ($9,700): This game features an O/U of 49.5 and has the potential for massive levels of production from both teams. In order for the Colts to win this game, they have to rely on the arm of Luck because their running game has been nonexistent and the Bengals have one of the worst passing defenses in the entire league. It also doesn’t hurt that Luck is at home in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. With a potential shootout looming and Luck’s incredibly high ceiling, he is my QB of choice this weekend.
Running Back
Giovani Bernard ($6,900): Although Jeremy Hill makes for a great cash play, Bernard’s ownership levels will be a lot lower because he isn’t operating as the featured back anymore. Since healthy, he has been the running back of choice on passing downs and faces the Colts, who have given up a ton of receptions to running backs this year. He is a high upside play for me this weekend.
Reggie Bush ($5,600): I considered using Dan Herron in this spot, but I do not like pairing up a QB and RB on the same team. Bush is my off-the-board pick this week and could easily win a GPP for you. I do not expect his ownership to be high at all, and I expect the Lions to be playing from behind, which means plenty of passing situations for Bush to get the ball in space. With a low number of teams playing, you sometimes need a dark horse like Bush to win a GPP.
Wide Receivers
TY Hilton ($8,600): I am pairing Hilton with Luck because they have the highest ceiling of any QB/WR combo this week. Hilton is close to being 100% healthy and will most likely be lining up against Terence Newman, who has a poor coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus. Luck has to win this matchup through the air and will rely heavily on the explosiveness of Hilton. Be prepared for the best fireworks display of the entire weekend.
Calvin Johnson ($9,000): I was torn between Megatron and Antonio Brown for this spot, but after last week’s torching of the GB secondary, Megatron looks healthier than he has been all year long and comes at a $200 discount to Brown. I expect Stafford to target Megatron close to 15 times against a very beatable Dallas secondary. He is my #1 receiver this weekend.
Terrance Williams ($5,300): Williams represents your typical boom/bust play. He is either going to get you a donut or catch a 70-yard TD pass. Also, I expect more people to be on Cole Beasley (is it me or does he remind you of Steve the Pirate from the movie Dodgeball?). Williams’ long scores can give you the upside to win a large field GPP and it certainly does help that the Lions secondary has been giving up 2 TD’s per game over their last 5 games.
Tight End
Heath Miller ($5,000): It is looking very bleak for Le’Veon Bell to play this weekend and I think that Miller benefits the most from this. He should relied upon as a primary checkdown option for Big Ben and should have a bigger presence in the red zone. I do not love the Steelers offense without Bell this weekend, but Miller’s opportunity with Bell’s absence and price point make him very hard to pass up.
Editor’s Note: Bell has since been officially ruled out.
Kicker
Mike Nugent ($4,600): I have never advocated paying up for a kicker so I am not going to start now, no matter what format I am playing. Nugent has been fire on lately with 7 field goals in his last 3 games and gets to kick indoors in a high scoring matchup. He should be heavily owned but has the opportunity to register double digit points.
Defense
Carolina Panthers ($5,300): I usually do not pay up for defense, but Carolina’s matchup really stands out to me. The Panthers have been one of the top defenses recently, and get to face Ryan Lindley, who isn’t exactly Joe Montana. With the Cardinals only expected to score 16 points, this is a great spot for the Panthers.
Thank you guys again for all your positive feedback on these weekly articles. If you would like to contact me on Twitter, my handle is JoeyWats19. Best of luck to all of you this weekend.