Week 11: In Which We Find An Awesome Girlfriend
I made a list.
It was a short list, at first.
The list grew over time.
I kept this list in my “writing notebook” – the notebook I carried with me at all times…the notebook in which I kept my writing thoughts and story ideas. There was no real reason to keep this particular list in that particular notebook, as the list had nothing to do with my fiction writing. I don’t know. Maybe I kept the list in that notebook because I felt the list was as important as my writing thoughts…or, perhaps, I kept the list in my “writing notebook” because the list seemed like “fiction” itself.
The list was titled: “Things I’m looking for in a wife.”
There were maybe 10 items, maybe 15 items, on the list when I first put it together.
As I dated girls I did not particularly care for, I added to the list.
As I went through breakups with girls I did particularly care for, I added to the list.
As I went through seasons in my life with no steady girls, I added to the list.
By the time I met Abby (photographer Abby Tohline, that is – Abby_Tohline on Instagram, in case you want to fall for this shameless plug and add to her 51,000 followers), the list had grown to around 70 items – 70 things I was looking for in a wife.
I never told Abby about the list while we were dating, but on our wedding day, I gave the list to her as a gift. There was a checkmark next to every one of those 70+ items – a checkmark next to all 70+ things I was looking for in a wife.
In the comments section of last week’s article, RotoGrinders user Rope_a_dope said this:
“Also, a suggestion for your next article… ‘Week 11: In which we find an awesome GF.’ Cause I’m seeing other guys saying they have conversations with their GFs regarding DFS stuff and I’m quite sure the last time I tried with mine, she threw up in her mouth a little bit… So one of those would be AWESOME. Thanks again for your insight.”
I thought that was a good suggestion. So here goes:
Want to find an awesome girlfriend? Easy! Just make a list of all the things that encompass your idea of an “awesome girlfriend”!
If you want a girlfriend who is into sports, write this on your list. If you want a girlfriend who is willing to sit there and listen to you talk about DFS, write this on your list! If you want a girlfriend who is going to hop on Twitter and curse out David Price for ruining her daily fantasy roster with his bad start…well, you’ll have to talk to Notorious about that one (true story: I saw Noto’s wife do that on Twitter this past summer).
Once you have this list, you will know what you are looking for. You will be able to identify this “awesome girlfriend” when she crosses your path. And then, all that will be left is the task of wooing her with your charm, your wit, and your effortless manliness…
Trust me. It’s not a fantasy. You can find an awesome girlfriend.
It’s also not a fantasy to think that you can use these same principles to build great daily fantasy lineups (which will be helpful in ensuring that your girlfriend actually wants to sit and listen to you talk about daily fantasy sports, because – you know – even the girl of your dreams would much rather hear about daily fantasy sports if you are making money and taking her on dates with this money than if you’re losing money; see? – it all sort of goes together…).
One of the biggest mistakes daily fantasy footballers make is not knowing what they are looking for in the players they are choosing. This leads to a lot of confusion on a week-to-week basis – a lot of “trying to narrow things down from the 30 attractive players I’m seeing at each position” – and, ultimately, a lot more losing weekends than winning weekends. It’s like dating a girl simply because she’s attractive. Of course you’re not finding “the right girl for you”; you need more qualifications on your list than this!
Each week, you should know what’s on your “list of things I’m looking for,” and as a result of this you should be able to quickly narrow down each position to about 8 or 10 players you like the most.
If you remember as far back as my article from a few weeks ago, you will recall that the main things I look for are as follows:
Talent
Matchup
Opportunity
Price
I want the talented QB who is squaring off against a mediocre pass rush and a poor pass D, and who is likely to drop back 35 to 40 times.
I want the talented RB who is in a good matchup and is a near-lock for 20 touches.
I want the talented WR who is facing a soft secondary and is a near-lock for 10 targets.
I want the talented TE who is facing a linebacking unit that has trouble with TEs and is going to get 6 to 8 targets with consistent looks in the red zone.
I want the defense that has disrupters in the front seven, and that is facing a mistake-prone QB who is likely to be playing from behind – thereby increasing the likelihood of mistakes from this QB.
And I want to find the lowest-priced options available on DraftKings that fulfill all these things.
I don’t want to be “scared of missing out on a big game” from some big-name player, and end up spending up for that “big-name player” as a result (thereby causing myself to punt another position with a guy who fails to fulfill the “talent, matchup, and opportunity” elements). Instead, I want to identify the players who match my “talent, matchup, and opportunity” list…and then, I want to say, “Great, I like this guy; now, let’s go down in price and see if I can find anyone at a lower price who hits all these things to the same extent, so I can use them instead.” That’s how you find value in daily fantasy sports. And that, really, is what success in daily fantasy sports is all about!
One final note on this, before we get into this week’s picks: It can often be overwhelming to try to figure out exactly what you should look for in identifying “talent, matchup, and opportunity.” The good news? There are people out there who are a lot smarter than you when it comes to determining these things (and no, I’m not impugning your intelligence in this area – I am simply saying that these guys are really, really smart when it comes to this stuff!), and these people release their rankings every single week. The key, then, is knowing whose advice to listen to!
Honestly? This should be on your “list” of things you are looking for each week: you should be looking at the rankings of the top fantasy football rankers, every single week.
While there are a lot of voices out there in the realm of “fantasy football rankings,” Fantasy Pros makes things easy on us with their accuracy rankings.
Did you know, for example, that Matthew Berry has never been in the top 50% of “experts” (in terms of the accuracy of his rankings) throughout the six years during which Fantasy Pros has tracked accuracy rankings? (He’s an absolutely tremendous writer, no doubt. But a great fantasy mind? Yeah, try again.)
On the other hand, of the 129 “experts” whose rankings Fantasy Pros tracks, Bryan Fontaine of Pro Football Focus (yes, the same Bryan Fontaine who writes a weekly article right here on RotoGrinders under his username RookieBlitz) ranks 10th in accuracy – that’s 10th out of 129 experts (after ranking 12th last year and 7th the year before!).
Also from Pro Football Focus, Mike Clay ranks 9th this year, and he ranked 2nd among all fantasy experts EACH of the last two years. (He also ranks #1 in running back accuracy this year…after ranking #1 last year as well.)
Justin Boone of The Score ranks 1st this year in overall accuracy, after ranking 11th last year and 8th the year before.
The Sablich Brothers (New York Times), Kyle Wachtel (Forensic Fantasy), John Paulsen (4for4), Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus), and Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) have all graded out among the most accurate rankers for multiple years running as well.
Looking at the consensus rankings (as well as the individual rankings) from these rankers is on my “list of things I like to do each week” in determining which players I will use on my daily fantasy lineups.
As I’ve said multiple times in past articles, you should use the “thoughts of others” to supplement your own research, rather than as the basis of your own research, but every week – in looking at the rankings from these guys – I end up finding at least a couple players on whom they are all much higher than me, and to whom I need to give a closer look as a result. Sometimes, as with Shane Vereen this week, my “closer look” leads to me still being lower on that player than these guys are; other times, as with Brandon Marshall this week, my “closer look” leads to me realizing I should have been higher on that player all along!
With “talent, matchup, opportunity, and price” on the list of things you are looking for each week in narrowing down the field to the players you like the most, and with “the thoughts of (the right) others” on your list of additional research, you will find that it is much easier to narrow things down each week to the players you truly like the most, and to build winning daily fantasy football lineups as a result.
As for the things you should add to your list for “an awesome girlfriend“…well, I’m afraid you’re on your own with that.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here is a look at the guys who fulfill the things on my “list” this week!
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$6800 – PHILIP RIVERS vs Raiders
Philip Rivers has been a borderline Top-5 fantasy QB this year. He had one bad game two weeks ago (traveling from the west coast to the east coast, then playing the early game against an elite defense – something that would cause any QB not named Tom, Peyton, or Aaron to struggle), then he went on bye, and his price dropped as if he just had another kid. (Don’t get that joke? Come on, now! Remember two years ago when everyone was blaming Rivers’ downfall on the fact that he and his wife had just had, like, their 7th kid? Well, okay…) The Raiders have a bottom-10 coverage unit (PFF), and Rivers shredded them for 313 yards and 3 TD a few weeks back (in Oakland, no less). The only real concern, in my mind, is that the Chargers get up big early and take the foot off the gas (a concern exacerbated by the fact that the Chargers’ D is finally getting healthy). At $6800, however, that’s a concern I am very much willing to live with.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$8300 – DREW BREES vs Bengals
It’s a game in the Superdome, against a beleaguered defense, and although Brees is priced as the 5th most expensive QB (right about where he should be), there is a huge price gap between the top four guys and Brees. People still seem to be overlooking Brees this year, forgetting that he has just as much of a chance as any QB in the NFL to have one of those crazy 5 TD games that seem to have become the norm lately – and this matchup is a great opportunity for him to do just that. Heck, I’m nearly talking myself into switching off Rivers and moving to Brees on my Optimal Team!
$6700 – CAM NEWTON vs Falcons
I know, I know. Trust me, I know. But did you watch that game on Monday night? (Of course you did! Everyone watches the Monday night game, which is why Cam’s ownership will be incredibly low this week.) The big issue for Cam this year is the pressure his poor excuse for an offensive line is allowing (I almost pulled the joke of saying, “His ‘offensive’ offensive line” – you know, the ol’ double-meaning joke? – but then I realized it would be a true groaner; you’re welcome for not going there). Against an Atlanta D that does not have nearly the pass rush Philly has (Philly has a top-3 pass rush according to Pro Football Focus; Atlanta has a bottom-6 pass rush), Cam should have more time to work. If he had a good O-line, he’d be a QB that ought to be priced in the $8k to $8.5k range. This week, it could almost seem as though he has a good O-line.
$6400 – MATT RYAN vs Panthers
On the other side of the ball from Cam, we have a team with the same problem. This game should feel like a breath of 2011 for both these guys, as the Panthers have a bottom-10 pass rush themselves. There is always the concern of this offense not clicking nearly as well on the road as it does at home, but given the matchup (bottom-10 pass rush, and the lowest-rated coverage unit in the NFL), I see Ryan having as good a chance as any QB of quadrupling his salary this week.
$6300 – ROBERT GRIFFIN III vs Buccaneers
Finally, a QB whose O-line doesn’t suck! The Bucs have a decent pass rush and an atrocious secondary. When QBs have had time to throw against the Bucs, these QBs have embarrassed them. The only teams whose coverage units grade out worse than the Bucs are the Panthers and the Redskins themselves. This should be a shootout, and I expect Griffin to start looking like his old self in this game.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$6400 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Packers
I know, I know. Trust me, I know. But the weakness of this defense is on the ground, and I expect the Eagles to get McCoy far more involved this week. Same with Cam, people are likely to be off Shady because they all saw how little he was used on Monday Night Football. Realize, however: that has not been the norm. Before Monday night, LeSean had four consecutive games with 20+ carries, and his lowest yardage total in those games was 81. The only concern over the last four weeks was the low TD total (hey, at least that was remedied on Monday night!). This is a great week for Shady to get back on track, and his ownership should be far lower than it has been in weeks.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7200 – LE’VEON BELL vs Titans
He’s a Top 5 FLEX play this week (possibly a Top 3 FLEX play), and he’s priced as the #15 FLEX play. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
$6200 – MARK INGRAM vs Bengals
Ingram has looked tremendous as a feature back – a role he should have once more this week, as Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas appear unlikely to play yet again. Because the Saints know they can lighten Ingram’s workload later in the year when these other guys return, they’ve been riding him hard the last few weeks (carry totals of 24, 30, and 27 the last three weeks). I would be very surprised if that changed this week, and facing a bottom-3 run defense (PFF), he should be about as safe a play as you could possibly find.
$5400 – ALFRED MORRIS vs Buccaneers
Wow, the Bucs are bad. In addition to having a bottom-3 coverage unit, they also have a bottom-2 run defense (PFF). If the Redskins are able to keep the Bucs off the board enough to capture an early lead, we could see a lot of Alf…and that could lead to a lot of fantasy goodness.
$4500 – JEREMY HILL vs Saints
It appears that Gio will be out once again, which means you can get a 20-carry back (opportunity) facing a mediocre run D (matchup), at $4500 (price). Oh yeah, he’s also very talented (um, yeah – talent). He checks off everything on our list. He’s definitely one of our awesome girlfriends this week.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5600 – VINCENT JACKSON vs Redskins
I try to always make sure my “plays of the week” are not “chalk” picks – aiming to instead highlight guys I will be using on teams of mine (and again, keep in mind: I’m not a mass-entry guy; the most teams I ever create is around three to five), and who others may not be thinking of. That has led to some legendarily great “plays of the week” (with the best being the week Russ scored 40+ points as my QB play of the week, at less than 5% owned, while Sammy Watkins scored 36 points as my WR play of the week, also at less than 5% owned). But it also leads to some weeks like last week…with Percy and Owen Daniels (ouch!). This week, V-Jax is my most dangerous pick, for sure. However, let’s see if he could be one of our girlfriends: He’s still among the 12 or 15 most talented WRs in the NFL (talent), he’s 5th(!) in the entire NFL in targets per game (opportunity), he’s facing a bottom-3 secondary (matchup), and he costs only $5600 (price). I know you like Mike Evans more, but I will always take the guy who gets more targets and costs less. Are you with me?
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6000 – A.J. GREEN vs Saints
Another week, another A.J. Green dud. Of course, the concern is that the toe is bothering him too much for him to actually perform at an elite level. In this matchup, at this price, in a game that is likely to be high-scoring, however, I’ll take my chances.
$5800 – BRANDON MARSHALL vs Vikings
Ten targets. Ten targets. Ten targets. Oh, sorry, I was just tallying up Marshall’s targets from each of the last three games. If Marshall’s ankle is healthy this week, he’s practically a must-play at this price. (And if his ankle is not healthy, Alshon Jeffery is only $100 more. Just saying…)
$4500 – KEENAN ALLEN vs Raiders
Nine targets. Thirteen targets. Eight targets. Yup, tallying up Keenan’s targets from his last three games. Many of Keenan’s peripheral stats look similar to his “breakout campaign” last year. All that’s missing, really, is the TDs. He found the end zone in Week 8, before the whole team melted in Miami where the heat was on (all night on the beach till the break of dawn…). I like his chances of finding pay dirt again – and even if he doesn’t, you get a talented WR facing a bad secondary and receiving around 10 targets per game, all for $4500.
$3100 – JUSTIN HUNTER vs Steelers
With the pricing (finally!) a bit tighter on DraftKings this week, you may want to save salary in a spot or two. If you choose to, Justin Hunter is one place worth looking. Sure, it’s a risk, but it’s not often you can find a super (physically) talented WR who plays 94% of the snaps for a team that is always behind and is heading into a game against a banged-up defense…all for only $3100. This may be the week so many people have been waiting for from Justin Hunter. I will have him on one team as a salary-saving lottery ticket that’s not nearly as risky as it seems.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$7900 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Colts
Gronk is unlikely to return 4x value. Let’s get that out of the way right now. But there are really no TEs I like at their price this week, which means I like the idea of paying up for Gronk or Jimmy. I like them both. I like Gronk more. Mostly because there will be points scored on Sunday night, but I have no idea where these points will come from. The best way to have a piece of those points is with Gronk. So there you go.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7000 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Bengals
Of course, Jimmy is also a tremendous option. You can’t go wrong with either guy. I’ll have Jimmy on a team or two as well.
$5100 – GREG OLSEN vs Falcons
As I said – I’m paying up at TE. It’s not that I don’t like Olsen. I do like him. He seems like a nice guy. He’s also a good football player. I just like a lot of the WRs in the $5k range, and I like a lot of those guys to have a far better chance of reaching 4x value than Olsen or Gates. This is why I’m willing to pay up at TE this week to get one of the “sure things” in Gronk or Jimmy. Olsen simply does not see as many TD opportunities as I would like him to see, and that’s what keeps him off my roster this week at this price. However, he’s a tremendous player who is a big part of this offense, and I certainly don’t hate this pick if you choose not to pay up at TE.
$5000 – ANTONIO GATES vs Raiders
While Olsen doesn’t get enough TD opportunities for me to really love him, Gates doesn’t get enough outside of TD opportunities for me to really love him. However, he has been dominating in the red zone this season. He’s probably the best bet among the lower-priced TEs to score in the same range as Gronk and Jimmy this week.
$3300 – JORDAN REED vs Buccaneers
It has been very difficult to get a read on how the Redskins are using their TEs this year. Will Reed see nine targets or two? I really don’t know. As such, this becomes a riskier pick than it should be, given Reed’s talent, and if he gets the targets he should be getting, this price is an absolute steal! However, there is really no telling whether or not he will get the usage he should be getting. It’s a risky pick – but it is one that could pay off big-time if you guess right on this guy’s usage this week.
Qualifier Watch: No good this last week. In fact, for only the second time all season, I failed to cash in GPPs with my Optimal Team, which means my Optimal Team sure as heck had no shot at winning a Q (thankfully, the Cam-Kelvin connection in garbage time was enough to save my 50/50s!). Let’s get back on track this week. After a pair of 2nd place finishes in Qualifiers this year to go with a 3rd place finish and a 5th place finish, time is starting to run out. We’ll see if this week is finally the week!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go spend time with my awesome wife. I’ll be back later to chat with you in the comments or on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle! – I’m on there during the second-half of each week with late-week thoughts and answers to questions) – and to see if any of you with awesome girlfriends have some solid advice for others who are looking for the same!