Week 13: In Which It's Okay To Make A Mistake
“It’s okay to make a mistake.”
I was standing in the upstairs hallway of the house in which I grew up – tears pouring out of my eyes. My mom was standing in front of me. “Say it again, Jordan.”
“It’s okay to make a mistake,” I said. I probably choked back my snot and cleared the tears from my eyes. “It’s okay to make a mistake! It’s okay to make a mistake!”
We went through this sometimes, back when I was a kid. I would mess up in some big way or another (or…you know, in what felt like “some big way or another” at the time), and I would be so freaking livid with myself that my mom would make me repeat that – over and over again. “It’s okay to make a mistake. It’s okay to make a mistake.”
Yeah. Sometimes, being a perfectionist is not particularly fun.
This was an important lesson to learn when I was a kid. Had I not learned it, I would have gone through life beating myself up over every little misstep and mistake I happened to make (not that I make any missteps or mistakes, of course – I’m simply saying, if I ever did). In fact, I was (am?) such a perfectionist that if I would get in trouble for something in high school (unless it was for something big – which never happened, of course, because I was an angelic, law-abiding high schooler – just like you), my parents would not even punish me for whatever it was I had gotten in trouble for. My mom always felt that I punished myself enough – I was hard enough on my own self – that there was really no reason for her to pile extra punishment onto that.
Sounds kind of nice, right? You get in trouble for something and don’t even get punished? I’m sure it would be nice…if my mother’s assessment of the situation were not accurate. But her assessment was accurate: truly, I punished myself so much on my own that any additional punishment from anyone else would have just been sad.
I’m happy to report to you that I am better now. I mean, traces of my perfectionism remain (traces? – okay, maybe more like streaks…or blotches), but I do a much better job these days than I used to. I do a much better job dealing with mistakes than I would have done if my mom had not made me repeat that, over and over again: “It’s okay to make a mistake.”
But here is the worst part of it all – the heaviest burden the perfectionist must carry in the fanny pack that they wore because they meant to wear it (not because it was a mistake)…
The reason I cried when I had to stand there and say, again and again, “It’s okay to make a mistake”? I did not cry because I had made a mistake. I cried because, by saying those words out loud – by forming those words in my mouth and releasing them for the world (or…for my mom) to hear – I was making a clear admission that I had, in fact, made a mistake. A mistake! Oh, the shame…
By saying those words – “It’s okay to make a mistake” – any last hope I had of maybe being able to sweep the mistake under the proverbial rug vanished. By saying those words, I was not admitting to or agreeing with this idea that mistakes were totally okay to make. No. By saying those words, what I was actually saying was: I admit it…I made a mistake.
So now – now that I learned my lesson when I was a kid (or…learned it as much as I could, I guess) – I say to you:
I made a mistake.
I say: “It’s okay to make a mistake.”
In case you missed last week’s article, I took the (surprisingly well-received) approach of sharing with you my notes on the way in which I saw each game playing out. I figured, as I made the decision to take that approach with the article, that many of you would ultimately feel this new approach had, in fact, been a mistake! The article was about twice as long as normal, after all, and it did not have silver-plattered picks: “I like these five guys, and you should, too.” Instead, the article simply contained my comprehensive assessment of how I saw each game this last weekend playing out, and of who I liked and disliked as a result.
On Monday, as I began to make notes on the Week 13 games, I went back to that article and perused it…and I was truly amazed and (if I may say so without sounding too terribly self-congratulating) impressed with how accurate I had been, overall, in my assessment of how each game was likely to play out, and of how I saw players shaping up from a fantasy standpoint as a result.
One incorrect prediction did, however, stand out to me. It was my assessment of A.J. Green, in which I stated, quite unequivocally, that I would not be going near him.
Now, the foundation in which I planted his firm statement was just fine: I pointed out that the Texans had a stronger secondary than most gave them credit for, I pointed out that the game was likely to be fairly low-scoring and something of a dog-fight, and I pointed out – most importantly, in my mind – that A.J. Green, for all his talent, was really not getting more than 7 or 8 targets per game. This was sound reasoning. In fact, before Week 12, the most targets Green had received in a game was 9 – which had happened once; in half his games before Week 12, he had received exactly 8 targets. In other words, it was not a bad assessment on my part – it was not (if we want to resort to such primitive labeling tactics) a “mistake.” There was no way to predict – without edging out onto a limb too thin to hold you, at least – that Green would receive 15 targets, and would have twice as many catches as he had recorded in any game all season.
It was not a mistake.
Furthermore, my WR of choice in that same price range on Sunday – the WR I had on all four of my rosters – was T.Y. Hilton, who scored 26.7 points…a mere 0.4 shy of what A.J. Green scored. So not only was it not a poor assessment (a “mistake”) on my part, but even if it had been a mistake, it did not have any negative impact on my teams. If I possessed the gift of logically sizing up anything in my life that could be even remotely perceived as a “mistake,” I would have realized that right away – no problem. To be honest with you, I did not even realize that the A.J. Green miss (not “mistake” – come on, now, that’s an important distinction!) had lodged itself into my mind.
But then, I was composing my notes on this week’s games – putting onto paper the way in which I envision each of this week’s games playing out. And when I got to the Buccaneers-Bengals game, I started to come up with reasons why A.J. Green was a poor play this week. You know, that Tampa 2 coverage scheme that limits deep passes, and that relegates teams to underneath routes – the sort of routes more suited to Sanu than to Green. I was in the midst of researching stats (stats such as “Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings pegs the Bucs as the #30 pass D,” or “Pro Football Focus grades the Bucs as having the #27 coverage unit,” or “The Bucs rank 29th in opponent QB rating,” or “the Bucs rank 30th in passing yards allowed per game,” or (underneath passes?) “the Bucs allow the 5th-highest yards per passing attempt in the NFL”) – in short, all the stats and facts that would…you know, back up my claim that A.J. Green was a clear fade once again, when it hit me:
I was trying to cover up what I perceived to have been a mistake. The crazy thing is, I wasn’t even trying to cover it up from you, or from anyone else. Instead, I was trying to cover it up from myself(!) – was trying, as hard as I could, to prevent myself from admitting I had made a mistake.
All the data and research this week, of course, points to A.J. Green being a premium play. If you play him this week and he has a poor or mediocre game, you cannot be upset with yourself, as he is – quite simply – one of the WRs this week likeliest to have a huge game. And if you fade A.J. Green based on some crackpot “Tampa 2 coverage” logic and he ends up having a poor or mediocre game away from your lineups, it was still poor logic that led to you keeping him off your team. From a removed-from-self perspective, I can see that quite clearly. But because I chose (via sound reasoning, mind you – and without it negatively affecting my teams at all) to intentionally and explicitly stay away from A.J. Green in Week 12, I felt a strong, subconscious desire to fade him again this week in an obviously great spot, simply in order to prove to myself that I had not made a mistake in fading him the week before.
“Wait. What? JM, are you crazy? Because, seriously, that makes no sense…”
You think that’s bad? Hey, at least I caught it! At least I realized that the reason I was digging around for any defense – no matter how certifiably absurd – for fading Green this week was because I felt I needed to justify and stand behind my decision to fade him the previous week. Right? At least I caught this…
…because there have been other times this season when I was not so fortunate. Let’s take a little trip, back to Week 2 of this 2014 NFL season.
I have never been a big fan of the idea of Gio Bernard as a true, workhorse running back; frankly, I would much rather see him in a Vereen-type role, with 5 to 7 carries per game and a lot of pass-game work. After watching as much film as I could get my hands on at the time of this rookie running back out of LSU named Jeremy Hill, however, I started to really grow fond him. I started to hope for Hue Jackson to mix this guy in. I wanted to see what Hill would do between the tackles if given an opportunity. In fact, I went so far as to recommend Hill in my Week 2 article, and he rewarded my faith (and my bold recommendation) by ripping off 74 rushing yards on 15 carries, catching a couple passes, scoring a touchdown, and notching over 17 fantasy points on DraftKings, for a price of $3600. Wow.
The next week, I recommended him again at a price of $4000. Yes, Gio was still there. Gio had still out-touched Hill in Week 2 (by 15 touches, no less!). Gio was still the starter. But I knew Hue Jackson’s reputation as a talent maximizer, and I truly felt Hill was (and is) the most talented running back on that team.
Now, let’s fast-forward to Week 9. I had all my DraftKings teams fully built that week – completely set and ready to be left alone until kickoff on Sunday – when it was announced that Gio Bernard would be inactive that Sunday. Jeremy Hill would be starting – as in, getting all the carries. The opponent? The Jacksonville Jaguars. The price tag on Hill? $4000. Yup. That’s right. That’s the same price tag at which I had recommended him in Week 3, when Gio was still there to eat up most of the touches. And now, at that same price tag, Hill would be receiving all the touches for himself. It was what I had been waiting to happen for nearly two months, right? Finally…right?
But I didn’t want to change my teams. My teams were already set. So even when Mike Clay (whose opinion I respect as much as anyone’s) bumped Hill into the top 10 in his rankings, I left Hill out of my lineups. And even when Bryan Fontaine (whose opinion I respect as much as anyone’s) let me know he was on Hill, I left Hill out of my lineups.
If you’ve been playing daily fantasy football since Week 9 or earlier, of course, you know what happened: Hill ripped through the Jags’ defense for over 160 all-purpose yards, two touchdowns, and – most importantly for all of us, of course – for 32.1 fantasy point. All for a price tag of $4000.
Now THAT, my friends, was a mistake. That was not, “A.J. Green is, logically, unlikely to get more than 8 targets, and it’s a tougher matchup than most people are thinking…but I like T.Y. Hilton a lot this week, so I will use him instead.” No, this was a flat-out fumble on my part. This was, “This guy who I already know is super talented – this guy I’ve been hoping since Week 2 would get a real shot at some extra carries – is going to be the all-out starter, against a run defense that grades out poorly, in a game in which his team is likely to be leading (and running) for much of it, and he only costs $4,000…but I’m not going to use him, because I don’t want to tinker with my lineups.”
But that’s not the worst part. The worst part was not that I failed to use Hill. Yes, that was bad – that was a mistake.Whatever, we all make mistakes. Whatever, it’s okay to make a mistake. Whatever, learn from it and move on. Right?
No. The worst part was this:
I refused to acknowledge that I had made a mistake. The Jaguars, I reminded myself after Hill’s epic performance, had not allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than a year. Everyone who started Hill – I told myself – had really just gotten lucky, because when it came down to it, it was not the smart play.
Yeah. Sometimes, being a perfectionist is not particularly fun.
Sometimes, being a perfectionist is not particularly profitable…
Because two weeks later, in Week 11, I had a chance to atone for my previous mistake. In Week 11, it was announced that Arian Foster would miss the game against the Cleveland Browns and their swiss cheese run defense. In Foster’s place, Alfred Blue would be starting. Alfred Blue cost the minimum salary. Oh – wait, did I say I “had a chance to atone for my previous mistake”? Sorry – scratch that out. What I meant to say was (you know, because I hadn’t made a mistake in Week 9 – I made the right decision, and everyone else made a mistake in picking Hill and just got lucky), I had a chance to prove once more that it had been smart to fade Hill in Week 9. And, of course, the best way to prove that fading Hill in Week 9 had been the right move was by fading Blue in Week 11.
Yeah.
Thirty-seven carries and 156 yards later…
And then, Week 12 rolled in. And I recommended Isaiah Crowell in my article. But everyone else was recommending him also, and he only cost $3800. “That’s that danger zone for salary,” my subconscious reminded me. “That’s the price Hill and Blue were – and everyone just got lucky last time around picking those guys, even though it was the wrong move. You don’t want to jump on board with everyone this week when these constant ‘wrong moves’ are sure to catch up with them, do you?” And so, on the team I had in the Thunderdome and in the Qualifiers – a team that had LeSean McCoy, T.Y. Hilton, Josh Gordon, and Josh McCown – I went with Frank Gore (what?), Steve Smith Sr., and the Eagles D…instead of going with Isaiah Crowell, Odell Beckham Jr., and the Colts D. Once again, of course, everyone made a mistake in selecting Crowell and just simply got lucky. Once again, I had not made a mistake…and for that, I was suffering dearly.
And the craziest thing of all was: I did not even realize what I was doing until I started digging around for data to support my firm stance that A.J. Green was a must-fade in Week 13, against the Buccaneers and their bottom-ranked-in-everything pass defense. I did not realize that the only reason I wanted to fade A.J. Green was to prove to myself I had not made a mistake in fading him the week before.
The only reason I faded Alfred Blue was to prove to myself I had not made a mistake in fading Jeremy Hill – and then, I faded Isaiah Crowell to prove to myself I had not made a mistake with Hill or Blue.
And if I had more space, or if you had nothing better to do but sit there all day and read my ramblings, I would tell you about at least two other such “non-mistakes” I made this year.
But I don’t have more space (okay, I do, but let’s get to my thoughts on this week already!), and you do have better things to do than to sit there and read my ramblings (at least…I sure as heck hope you do), so I’ll wrap up this lengthy, layered anecdote with this:
Each week in DFS is a new week. Do not allow your previous week’s winnings or your previous week’s losses to affect the way you approach this new week. Do not carry decisions from one week to the next. And for heaven’s sake, do not try to “prove to yourself” that you did not make a mistake when you did, in fact, make one!
Every week, at the conclusion of the DFS slate, you should assess your teams – with a completely honest eye – and determine what you did well and what you should have done differently (and remember: just because a player on your team had a good game does not necessarily mean you made the right move in picking them…and just because a player on your team had a bad game does not necessarily mean you made the wrong move in picking them! – instead, it is all about the process and the research that led to these decisions, and this is what you should assess at the conclusion of each weekend). And please, do yourself a favor: if you made a mistake, don’t try to “cover it up” or “defend it” by making that same mistake again. Instead, acknowledge it as a mistake, and figure out how you can learn from this mistake. That’s how you improve in daily fantasy sports. That’s how you get better.
And anyway, who cares? After all, it’s okay to make a mistake.
Note: Due to public demand (or…at least, the vocal portion of the public), we are sticking to the same format in this article as last week: Breaking down my game-by-game thoughts, and indicating along the way who I like and dislike as a result of the matchups and the manner in which I see each game playing out. I got a bit stat-nerdy this time around. Hopefully that’s all right by you!
Editor’s Note: Sign up to ScoreStreak through our links and play $25 worth of games, and we will ship you a Free RotoGrinders Tee Shirt or Hat. Click here for details.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are my (overly-thorough) thoughts on how I see each game playing out in Week 13.
(Once more, you may need a cup or two of coffee to help you get through all this. Get settled in; get comfortable; and let’s get going!)
Patriots at Packers
I don’t think I can get on board with any of my Patriots in this one. I think they’ll win, of course(!). But it’s going to be a close game, and I don’t know where the points will come from. More than likely, the Patriots’ plan will be to attack the Packers on the ground, as this is where they are most vulnerable (they have a very good secondary). With that said, if the Patriots went “big back,” we would have no way of knowing if that “big back” will be JONAS GRAY or LEGARRETTE BLOUNT – and honestly, since the Packers will be expecting them to go “big back,” I could see the Pats shaking things up and using SHANE VEREEN, but running him on traditional run plays more often than normal. One item worth noting: the Packers are not great against TEs. ROB GRONKOWSKI could have a big game vs them. However, last time the Pats went run-heavy, Gronk ran fewer pass routes because he was blocking a lot (finished with 4 catches for 71 yards and a TD). Again, that makes him a risk here. This does seem like a very good game for JULIAN EDELMAN to keep up his recent hot streak. The problem is, he’s not a “big play” guy, which makes him a somewhat weak tournament option…and his price keeps going up with all these solid games. TIM WRIGHT could also be a consideration. He played 61 of 81 snaps on Sunday – but his highest snap total before that was 22, so I don’t know if the Pats are finally getting him more involved, or if it was simply game-plan-specific (I’m guessing the latter). Still, this seems to be the sort of game where the Pats will run up the middle and make throws over the middle. That’s where Edelman and Wright thrive. But with how much the Pats spread the ball around and with how difficult it will be to predict their game plan for this week, I’ll almost definitely be staying away.
I’ll go ahead and say I am pretty certain the Pats will shadow JORDY NELSON with Revis. Arrington has been very good in the slot lately and can probably stick with RANDALL COBB (he was one-on-one with T.Y. a lot against the Colts). And DAVANTE ADAMS will be no match for Browner when the Packers go three-wide (as they do most of the time). If the Packers went 2-TE again, like they did vs Chicago (Pats LBs are liabilities in coverage), this could put Cobb on the outside more, squaring up with Browner, who could have trouble with him. If that were the case, though, the Pats might shift Browner to Jordy and give him safety help, and let Revis stick with Cobb. Either way, I don’t want to get involved on this side of the ball. It’s not like AARON RODGERS is going to have a bad game, but we’ve seen it three weeks in a row now with Peyton, Luck, and Stafford: QBs have a lower ceiling vs this pass D than they do in other games. Rodgers’ ceiling is still high, but not as high as normal. Why pay up for him, then? Even with this game’s super-high over/under, I’d rather look elsewhere for QB points. As for EDDIE LACY, he is finally getting very consistent touches again, and the Packers use him a lot of different ways. The Pats run D has shown up really strong in recent weeks, but Lacy could be a focal point for the Packers’ O, making him a strong consideration.
Redskins at Colts
Editor’s Note: The Redskins have benched Robert Griffin III in favor of Colt McCoy.
This would be a great spot for ALFRED MORRIS – if I didn’t think the Redskins will be behind by about 4 touchdowns right away! Arthur Jones is back on the Colts’ line, so they’re not as miserable as they were when they played the Pats and Jonas Gray shredded them, but they’re still vulnerable to strong running up the middle. The risk in using Alf is very high, however, as he pretty much disappears when the Redskins are playing catch-up. In fact, ROY HELU could be a sneaky play if you really believe (as I do) that the Colts will go up big fairly quickly. As for ROBERT GRIFFIN III – no thanks. Not against Vontae Davis, with the threat of an in-game benching looming over him. The Colts won’t be able to put a ton of pressure on RGIII, but I still don’t see him having a breakout game. This leaves his pass catchers and their inconsistent nature off the board for me as well (although, if I were to roll with one for garbage-time-goodness, I’d take DESEAN JACKSON, as both his price and his ownership have appropriately dwindled by now, and he is always a threat for a few big plays; also worth noting: the Colts really struggle at covering TEs, so JORDAN REED (if he plays) or NILES PAUL could also be factors; in a close game against the 49ers, Gruden basically took the ball out of RGIII’s hand, but he will not be able to do that against the Colts, and since RGIII will have to pass, those passes will have to go to someone).
Screw Pro Football Focus! I don’t care how low of a rating they give the Redskins’ run D…their run D is good. I know I should not have used Gore against them last week, especially with Cofield back on the Redskins’ D-line (hey, Gore had been getting 20 carries and a couple targets per game, and I thought he would be low-owned; turned out he was – in fact, I was the only person who owned him in the Thunderdome – but he scored 2.6 points…so that ended up being something in the range of “not very good for my team”), but for some reason, PFF has the Redskins rated as a bottom-3 unit. Anyhow, they’re good, and the Colts can’t run, and the Colts like passing deep into games anyway. Paying up for QB has seemed to get me into trouble lately, but this is a very good spot for ANDREW LUCK to have a massive game – especially coming off back-to-back disappointing outings. DONTE MONCRIEF got on the field more this last week (finally!), but that may have been because Hilton was off the field more than normal (after having been up all night with his wife as she birthed a human being). I still can’t trust Moncrief until, say, news comes out during the week that he’s going to get the start in three-wide sets. REGGIE WAYNE would be a solid cash game play, but he’s not explosive enough for tourneys. And COBY FLEENER – in spite of everyone’s apparent confusion heading into last week – is not a very good football player. You could really justify going Luck with no handcuff, since he spreads the ball around so much, but I do like using T.Y. HILTON, too, against a D that frequently gets burned for big plays (they give up the 7th most passing plays of 20+ yards, and the Colts have the third-most passing plays of 25+ yards).
Titans at Texans
The Texans have a perfectly mediocre run defense. They also rate as a perfectly mediocre pass D, although they frequently get torched by opponents’ #1 WRs (see A.J. Green this last week). Of course, the problem this week is: Who is the Titans #1 WR? I think this Texans D is more than talented enough to shut down JUSTIN HUNTER and KENDALL WRIGHT. The Texans are also tremendous against TEs (of course…the Eagles are good against TEs, and they got smoked by DELANIE WALKER this last week). Also, the pass rush on ZACH METTENBERGER could cause mistakes (as it did this last week vs Philly). I don’t think there is any reason to risk any Titans players on anything but the largest of tournament fields with, maybe, a 15th or 20th lineup (I still like BISHOP SANKEY’s talent, but the Titans cannot seem to get him going; I guess the potential volume of carries and the matchup make him a consideration, but it would be a leap of faith, to be certain). I expect the Texans to win, but I also expect them to control the clock, which – unlike a game against Philly – will not allow for a ton of catch-up, garbage-time opportunities. Vegas has the Titans projected at 18 points – tied for the lowest projection of the week (lower, even, than the Jets against the Dolphins). Not worth searching for points here, in my opinion.
The Titans grade out on both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus (and on the eye test, for that matter) as the worst team in the NFL vs the run. And they play ARIAN FOSTER this week. If Foster is healthy, he would have a chance of quadrupling his salary even at $10k. Seriously. Not to say he will quadruple his salary ($8800), but I think this is about the safest “pay up for a RB” spot we have had in a while. I’d be surprised if he stopped at just 120 yards and no scores. 150 and a couple TDs is easily within reach in this game. As for the WRs…their prices keep dropping, and it’s getting really tempting to jump on board before the prices soar again. But it doesn’t seem the Texans have a desire to open up the offense unless they have to (for example: a game in which they are down by a lot). And I don’t see this as one of those games. ANDRE JOHNSON is still a solid WR (and he has 21 targets the last two weeks!), and DEANDRE HOPKINS is legit – I just don’t see these dudes getting enough usage in this game, even at super-suppressed prices. (Note: I am out of town for Thanksgiving, and am therefore writing this article late Monday night, before any news has been released on who will play QB for the Texans this week. No matter who plays QB, it does not change the fact that I don’t want to use these WRs this week. Also, worth noting: I would be perfectly content rolling with ALFRED BLUE if Foster is out.)
Browns at Bills
The Bills are extremely stout against the run. They are top 10 in yards allowed and yards per carry allowed, they’re the 6th highest-rated run D unit by PFF, and Football Outsiders has them as the #8 team vs the run (schedule-adjusted). That takes ISAIAH CROWELL and TERRANCE WEST off the table for me. As for the Bills secondary: neither of their corners is very good, but with their pass rush and the coverage schemes Jim Schwartz has in place, the pass unit as a whole is top-10 in all of the following: PFF rating, Football Outsiders DVOA, passing yards per game, and yards per attempt. The Bills do allow a high completion percentage – mostly short passes – so the Browns could try to get JOSH GORDON going with screens and quick slants. Still, as good as Gordon is, there are probably better weeks to pay up for him. Then again…it’s Josh Gordon. And BRIAN HOYER gave him 16(!) targets on Sunday. Tough call here. Worth noting: the Browns do have a top-2 pass-blocking unit. Maybe they could give Hoyer enough time to find Gordon?
Cleveland is a top unit against the pass, and surely Haden will stick to SAMMY WATKINS and make the Bills’ passing “attack” very one-dimensional. The Browns are, however, a bottom-barrel unit against the run (3rd-worst in YPC and yards per game, and 4th-worst Football Outsiders DVOA ranking). The problem? The Bills can’t run this year. They’re 25th in yards per game and 21st in yards per carry, and they have graded out as a bottom-3 run blocking unit. Weakness against weakness? I don’t want to entrust my money to the legs of FRED JACKSON, BRYCE BROWN, or ANTHONY DIXON, but yeah – it is at least worth noting that Cleveland is bad against the run. In all, I see this being a low-scoring game that comes down to the wire, with probably some fantasy points on the Bills side from guys like ROBERT WOODS, SCOTT CHANDLER, and CHRIS HOGAN. After all, it’s not like the Bills won’t throw. If KYLE ORTON racks up 220 yards and only about 50 go to Watkins, that leaves some yards to be picked up by everyone else. Even still, it’s worth remembering that this is projected to be a low-scoring game and is not at all a “must-target” for fantasy plays. What’s more, the Browns allow the lowest QB rating in the NFL, and it’s not exactly like Orton is good.
Chargers at Ravens
The Chargers have a very poor O-line, and the strength of the Ravens’ D is their D-line. This is a similar situation to the game on Sunday against the Rams, and the Chargers countered the Rams’ pass rush with lots of quick passes. I could see them taking the same approach here (the Ravens also have a very good run D, making RYAN MATHEWS unappealing – again, especially with how few touches he has been receiving), so there is nothing here that makes me excited to test the waters with PHILIP RIVERS. Basically, this whole offense is going to be hands-off for me on Sunday, especially as they are traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast and are playing the early game (the same situation they were in against Miami; remember that game?) I guess ANTONIO GATES could be worth a look for a possible bounce-back – although the Ravens defend the TE well; KEENAN ALLEN would be fine in cash games, but even with the TD this last week, he’s not running the sort of routes you want a tournament play to be running; the targets are there, but the opportunities for a huge game are not.
San Diego’s pass defense stats look solid, but these are the QBs they have faced this year, in order: Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, E.J. Manuel, Chad Henne, Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Alex Smith, Peyton Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Shaun Hill. Peyton is the only elite guy on that list, and there are a lot of bad QBs on that list as well (including three who have been benched as the starters of their teams, and another – Shaun Hill – who lost his job for a while before they realized his backup is even worse than him!). Because of their schedule, they are rated as a somewhat middle-of-the-pack coverage unit by PFF, but Football Outsiders adjusts them to the #31 unit. I had STEVE SMITH SR. in a lineup this last week, with the expectation his old-man legs would be rested after the bye and he would be able to make some noise against the Saints poor secondary; this week, I am intrigued by the idea of pivoting to TORREY SMITH, who has been much more involved in the offense lately. The Chargers are also average against the run, and the Ravens have the NFL’s highest-rated run blocking unit (PFF), making JUSTIN FORSETT an obvious consideration here after back-to-back 2 TD weeks. If the game is competitive, Forsett could be involved in both the run game and the pass game. If the Ravens take a big lead, he could get plenty of chances to run out the clock. (San Diego has been good against TEs this year, so I’ll stay away from OWEN DANIELS.)
Giants at Jaguars
The early line has the Giants as very slight, low-scoring favorites. I expect a similar game plan in this one to the game plan the Giants used vs Dallas: use RASHAD JENNINGS some, use ANDRE WILLIAMS some…and throw to ODELL BECKHAM a ton. The Jaguars have really been improving lately – and their pass rush is a definite concern for ELI MANNING and his mistake-prone ways – but I don’t see the Jags being able to contain Beckham. Eli seems to have finally realized that RUEBEN RANDLE isn’t very good, and LARRY DONNELL has sort of faded into a role of extreme inconsistency. Given the pass rush of the Jags, I don’t like the idea of trusting Eli as a QB on my team, and the Giants seem to be trying to shift to Williams as their between-the-tackles guy, which could mean he gets a lot of the carries if the Giants get up big (thereby leaving Rashad to touch the ball less), which makes me slightly concerned about using Rashad. (Of course, Vegas has this projected as a close game, so maybe the Giants won’t get up big.) In any case, Beckham is the only guy who really stands out, but I definitely don’t hate the idea of Rashad – assuming the game remains closely-contested.
Man. I wish BLAKE BORTLES wasn’t so bad. This would be a great spot for the Jags, vs a team that can’t cover WRs and can’t stop the run (Giants give up the 3rd most yards per passing attempt in the NFL, and they give up the second most yards per carry). Even as is, this is a great spot for some sneaky upside from the Jags’ offense. Although the Jags are not projected to score a lot of points, I kind of like the idea of rolling with DENARD ROBINSON. He still got 14 carries in an eventual blowout vs the Colts, and perhaps even more importantly, he had 4 catches (he hasn’t been a big part of the passing game up until this last week). With game flow potentially working in his favor for once, he could have a very solid game as an under-owned play. I also like ALLEN HURNS this week (on the field more than MARQISE LEE, and more explosive than CECIL SHORTS). I didn’t use him against the Colts, and I sort of hoped he would have a poor game so I could use him this week against NYG. Still not 100% certain I will have him on one of my teams, but I like the big-play upside – especially against this secondary. In what could easily be a back-and-forth game, any Jaguars offensive player is just as much in play as any Giants offensive player – all at a cheaper price. Beckham is really the only guy on the Giants I see as a clearly preferable option to the Jags, and the Jags will cost you less. Also, I’ll make a bold prediction: I think the Jaguars will win this game. (Hmmm…that would be nice for Rashad Jennings’ value.)
Bengals at Buccaneers
What’s that? You say you skipped the intro? Okay, I’ll mention this again, then: Tampa is the #30 pass D according to Football Outsiders, the #27 pass coverage unit according to PFF, and they allow the 4th-highest QB passer rating and the 3rd-most passing yards per game in the NFL. Contrary to public opinion, the Bucs have not been awful vs the run this year (top half in YPC allowed, top half in Football Outsiders DVOA), but I could still see the Bengals attacking on the ground a bit – especially with this game being on the road. However, it would be difficult to stay away from A.J. GREEN this week, even at his now-elevated price. MOHAMED SANU is also a consideration, but it’s not quite like pivoting off Brandon Marshall to Alshon Jeffery, or even pivoting off Julio to Roddy. When Green is in, he is the very clear focal point of the offense, and Sanu takes a back seat (his seven targets this last week were his most since Green came back – and those only went for 48 yards, as he’s mostly getting underneath stuff). In all, I see the Bengals throwing early, and if I use pieces of their passing attack, I will hope the Bucs keep it close enough that the Bengals keep passing. (Side note: I am not on ANDY DALTON. So much of his volume goes to Green, he can support Green as an elite WR1, but he does not get enough volume himself to make him a worthwhile play – in my mind – in a game the Bengals could be leading the whole time. Also, if I were to go with a running back here – which I very well may do, as the Bengals could get a lead and run throughout the second half – I would absolutely be on JEREMY HILL over GIOVANI BERNARD.)
As for the Bucs. Well. By all accounts, the Bengals have a very solid coverage unit. And while their run defense has been bad for much of the year, they have started to look better lately. This is one of those unfortunate situations of weaknesses matching up with weaknesses, and strengths matching up with strengths. Although the Bucs have a decent run blocking unit, their scheme is pretty awful, and there is no telling who you should use at RB for fantasy purposes anyway (DOUG MARTIN or CHARLES SIMS?). But while the Bucs have been very effective through the air lately, this is where the Bengals are much more competitive. I guess one could safely assume JOSH MCCOWN will still rack up 250 yards or so, right? I mean, the game will still be played. The Bucs are projected at 20 points, and those have to come from somewhere. And most of those 250 yards will go to VINCENT JACKSON or MIKE EVANS – so even if it takes a lot of targets to get them there, one of them could pile up stats. Given talent, I don’t dislike either player. But given matchup and presumed price, there are other guys I would rather use. I guess I should also consider AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS, if for no reason other than the fact that he had a poor game for me this last week, and I learned during baseball that whenever I use someone heavily and they have a poor game, they’re going to go off in their next game (kind of like the fact that the guys I was on most heavily in Week 11 were V-Jax, Keenan Allen, and LeSean McCoy; thankfully, I used McCoy again in Week 12, but I did not use the other two as they went out and did what I thought they were going to do in Week 11!). Is that enough of a reason to use ASJ? Seriously, though, the dude is super talented. He left the game on Sunday with a back injury, but if he’s back in, he could be (yet again) a sneaky, cheap, high-upside play – with the added bonus that the Bengals have had a tough time this year vs TEs (2nd most receptions allowed to TEs), and the Bucs could fall behind in this game, and V-Jax and Evans may be covered, leaving McCown to look to ASJ.
Raiders at Rams
I know the big temptation here will be to use the Rams D vs the Raiders, but honestly, DEREK CARR takes very few sacks (How few sacks does he take? Try this – Peyton Manning is the only QB in the NFL who has taken fewer sacks this year than Carr), and while he does throw some picks, the Rams are actually near the bottom of the league in interceptions; where they excel is pressure and sacks. Of course, I could be wrong. Any defense could have a big game on any given Sunday, and the Rams have looked really good the last four or five weeks. But I just wanted to throw those stats out there for you. As to the game itself: the Raiders are seven-point underdogs, and are tied with the Titans for the lowest projected point total of the weekend. I am interested to see how this game plays out, as the Rams generally have a very solid run D, and the Raiders have horrible run blocking, all of which should lead to the Rams being able to bottle up LATAVIUS MURRAY (assuming he gets cleared from his concussion and the Raiders are finally smart enough to give him all the carries). That would then leave the Raiders “attacking” through the air, and this pass game is so inconsistent, I really do not want to try to guess who will get the targets (or, I should say, “who will get the yards,” because JAMES JONES always gets the targets, but he might as well be called Edelman-West for how few yards he’s getting). The fairy dust wore off MYCHAL RIVERA last week at last, and the Rams are excellent against tight ends, so I don’t like the idea of using him. Surely, there will be a low-cost guy on the Raiders who will have a solid (or even good) game, but it would be quite a risk to try to project who it will be, especially since their low projected total indicates that it is unlikely they will have multiple receivers with solid games.
Oakland’s run D is giving up the 7th most yards per game, but that’s a bit misleading. They are actually the 7th best run D in the NFL by yards per carry allowed, and Football Outsiders has them as a middle-of-the-pack run D (#14). The reason the stats against the Raiders look so gaudy is because teams usually have the ball plenty, and have a lead, so they keep it on the ground. With TRE MASON still available for only $4600, I will strongly consider using him, as he should get plenty of carries with the Rams likely to either have the lead or be in a close game; this team likes to run the ball when they can, as they don’t want to trust SHAUN HILL to win them games (can you blame them?), so it should go without saying that I do not like Hill, nor do I like KENNY BRITT – far too inconsistent. STEDMAN BAILEY has looked really good in back-to-back games, but he’s still not on the field enough. A thought that just came to mind, however (speaking of not being on the field…) – I wouldn’t hate the idea of taking a flier on TAVON AUSTIN in a large-field tourney. He’s not getting any big gains, but they’re trying to get him 4 or 5 touches each game. If you did decide to pick the Rams D and you paired them with Tavon, you would get double-points if he returned a punt TD, and – if you guessed right on the week he finally breaks off one of these big plays – he could prove to be a big value. I highly doubt I’ll try that myself, but I figure it’s worth mentioning. One final note: JARED COOK had 9 targets on Sunday. He only caught 3, and the Raiders are actually tough on tight ends, but it’s worth mentioning.
Saints at Steelers
It is hard to shake the fact that DREW BREES has continued to be less than impressive away from New Orleans. Just something to think about (although, with him sitting at second in the NFL in drop-backs, he does still manage to pile up fantasy points on the road). The Steelers are sub-mediocre against both the pass and the run, and I do not expect the Saints to deviate from what they have been doing for weeks. It does not look like the reappearance of KHIRY ROBINSON is anywhere in sight, so I’m sure the Saints will give MARK INGRAM about 20 carries, will throw to JIMMY GRAHAM about 10 times, and will otherwise spread the ball around plenty. KENNY STILLS makes for an intriguing option after he truly was featured on Monday night in something resembling Brandin Cooks’ old role – and his price (as pricing came out before that game) is still low. I don’t want to roll with MARQUES COLSTON in a tournament (nor do I want to rely on him in cash games). In what should be a shootout, Brees has appeal, and Jimmy is the most obvious play on this side of the ball, but Ingram and Stills are definitely options as well.
New Orleans has a bad defense. They’re bad against the run. They’re bad against the pass. The Steelers have a good offense, especially at home. (Also, the Saints will be going on the road, on a short week.) I think the Steelers will come out ready for a shootout (no Chargers/Chiefs/Cowboys “clock control” tactics – I think it’ll be gunslinger against gunslinger). Obviously, LE’VEON BELL is in for a huge workload (keep in mind that he has no clear backup right now – which means he should remain on the field for most of the game – making him one of the only true workhorse backs playing this weekend, as Marshawn, DeMarco, and Forte play on Thanksgiving), so he may be just as much worth the price as Foster. ANTONIO BROWN should, of course, have a huge game – as always, he has the highest floor of any WR in the NFL. MARTAVIS BRYANT is still not getting enough targets for my liking (and he has still been on the field less than MARKUS WHEATON), but his price ($4700) is far lower than I expected it to be. He’s always a threat for a few huge plays, and given the likely nature of this game and its shootout potential, I don’t hate the idea of sacrificing my beloved “opportunity” for the explosiveness Bryant provides (after all, even with the low playing time, we can pretty much bank on a minimum of 5 targets for the guy). Finally (of course), BEN ROETHLISBERGER is definitely in play. The Steelers D will probably be unable to slow down the Saints (I imagine this game will start out slowly…but once the points start showing up, they will come quickly) – and that means a lot of passes for Big Ben to his lethal weapons, against a very poor secondary.
Panthers at Vikings
Even with the Panthers coming off bye, the Vikings could be a sneaky defense play in GPPs. While they are susceptible to the run, they have a very good pass coverage unit and an excellent pass rush. They are 4th in the NFL in sacks, and they are in the top 10 in interceptions. With the Panthers grading out as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL (and with them giving up among the most sacks in the NFL this year), and with CAM NEWTON being so mistake-prone under pressure, this could be a great place to roll with the Vikings – something I doubt many others will be doing. Now that we have that out of the way: onto the Panthers. Obviously, the way to attack the Vikings is on the ground, but the Panthers are bad on the ground. I imagine this game will stay fairly close, and the Panthers will have a standard mix of runs and passes. If Cam healed up a bit during the bye, they could call some designed runs for him – which could help to get the offense going a bit – but it did not sound, heading into the bye, as though his ankle ailments are going away anytime soon. KELVIN BENJAMIN is always in play because of playmaking ability and volume, but I would rather use him against a less stingy pass defense, especially given his propensity for drops. As the pass rush may force more throws to be off-target, we would really want him to be able to catch the passes that are on target…instead of, you know, dropping over 11% of the catchable passes thrown his way (which is what he has done so far this year). As for GREG OLSEN: the Vikings are #3 vs TEs according to Football Outsiders DVOA. He is an excellent player, but I’d rather look elsewhere this week.
As for the Vikings: I am excited for CHARLES JOHNSON this week. In case you have not been paying attention: Johnson got into the game two weeks ago against the Bears when JARIUS WRIGHT and GREG JENNINGS both got injured, and put his freak athleticism on display by turning 7 targets into 6 catches for 87 yards. I said in my Vikings-Packers breakdown last week that I hoped the Packers secondary could hold Johnson back so we could target him this week against the Panthers. Well, Johnson got the start in 3-wide sets against the Packers and played almost the entire game, turning in a pleasant 3 catches for 52 yards and a TD…but that came on a whopping 12 targets! He should be under 5% owned and could be a difference-maker in tournaments this week against the third-worst-rated coverage unit in the NFL. Onto other guys on the Vikings: I have no interest in TEDDY BRIDGEWATER – he is far from putting up a 300-yard, 3-TD day. JERICK MCKINNON is an interesting guy to take a flier on against a subpar run D. One of these days he is going to break a long run for a TD. And every week that he doesn’t, more people get off him. I doubt I will use him myself (especially with him sharing the same price tag as Tre Mason), but just throwing that out there. As for Jennings and CORDARRELLE PATTERSON: Jennings doesn’t have enough big-play upside, and Patterson’s floor is far too low for my liking. Yup. That’s about all from this game.
Cardinals at Falcons
This game is projected to be low-scoring (Vegas has it around 23-21, Cardinals), because the Cardinals offense sucks, and the Cardinals defense is good. The prevalent thought here, I think, will be to target ANDRE ELLINGTON because the Falcons are “so bad against the run” – but in truth, they’re pretty much just exactly average. They have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL, but otherwise, they’re middle of the pack in YPC allowed, and while they’re 9th in yards allowed on the ground, they’re also 6th in rushing attempts against them. On top of that, the Cardinals have the lowest yards per carry of any offense in the NFL, as their run blocking is atrocious and Andre Ellington is still dealing with his foot issue (and will be dealing with it all year). The two pieces of good news, if you are leaning toward Ellington, are that he is averaging exactly 22 touches per game, and more than 4 of those per game are coming via catches (which is huge for DraftKings’ PPR scoring). I may end up moving toward Ellington as the week goes on, but my hope right now is that the Falcons do what the Seahawks did: stack the box and dare DREW STANTON to throw. That would be tremendous against this secondary, and while MICHAEL FLOYD is obviously the “big-play guy” (and his price is incredibly tempting this week at $3600), I love the idea of rolling with JOHN BROWN if LARRY FITZGERALD is out again! Even if Fitz starts, Brown gets about 40 to 45 snaps per game – but he could destroy the Falcons secondary if he’s on the field the whole game. Right now, it is looking highly unlikely that Fitz plays, so while others jump on board with Floyd against Atlanta, I’ll be all over John Brown. This game should be close/competitive throughout, requiring the Cardinals to keep mixing up their passes and runs – which would keep Brown involved all game. (I’m not on Stanton, in case you were wondering. Not enough consistency, and – like Bridgewater – very far away from a 300-yard, 3-TD game.)
As for the Falcons…obviously, the running game is hands-off against the stout front-seven of the Cardinals. This leaves it where it’s supposed to be: in the hands of MATT RYAN, JULIO JONES, and RODDY WHITE. Antonio Cromartie has been extremely good this year in coverage, as has Honey Badger (playing about 65% of the snaps). The Cardinals starting safeties – Tony Jefferson and Rashad Johnson – have turned things around since a poor start to the season, so really, Patrick Peterson (you know, the highest-paid corner in the NFL) has been the only weak link. And while the Cardinals give up the 4th most passing yards per game in the NFL, they’re 17th in yards per attempt. In other words: it’s like the Jets – the Cardinals’ run D is so good, teams just pass on them instead. Except the Jets secondary is awful, and the Cardinals secondary is above-average, and possibly even good. With all that said: That still leads to the same end result, which is that the Falcons will be passing. The Cardinals are in the bottom-10 in the NFL in sacks (which is great for Matt Ryan and his woebegone offensive line), and they give up an average of 263 passing yards per game – and that’s with a schedule that has included Eli, Kaepernick, Cousins, Carr, and Austin Davis. It won’t be pretty, as Ryan will probably throw 45 times (heck, speaking of averages, he’s averaging nearly 39 throws per game), and there will be one or two interceptions and perhaps a completion percentage under 60%, but I bet he’ll also top 300 yards, which gets you the 3-point bonus on DK to make up for the assumed turnovers. If he adds a pair of TDs to that, he could be a great value play (by the way: I wrote the first draft of this article before pricing came out; then pricing came out; Matt Ryan at home for only $5900? – are you kidding me!). As for who he will throw to: obviously, the options for stacking would be Julio or Roddy. Cromartie and Peterson play sides (not shadow coverage), and Julio and Roddy move around a lot. Julio will probably match up with Cromartie slightly more, but – of course – he’s also more dynamic than Roddy. Julio has only 4 games all season at less than double-digit targets (his lowest target total is 7, and his last three games have been 11, 10, 11), but Roddy had been in double-digits two straight games, and he runs high-percentage routes that turn into a lot more catches. I planned, originally, to use this space to simply write about why I would not be using the Falcons passing attack, but as I started digging in, I began to really like it. Ryan could be a great, affordable QB option this week, and his WRs are definitely worth considering in this spot.
Broncos at Chiefs
Man, I hate the Broncos… Okay, now that I got that out of the way. In Week 2, against the Chiefs, PEYTON MANNING threw only 26 times (his lowest total of the season), going 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 TD. Now, that was in Denver, and the Chiefs had just lost to the Titans. This is a very different-looking Chiefs team (so I say right after they lost to the Raiders), and it will be in Arrowhead. Right now, the forecast in KC is a high of 41 – and the game is at night, so it should be colder than that. That’s worth noting simply because Manning is never quite as good in cold weather. Now, obviously Manning is always in play, but it is worth noting that A) the Chiefs give up the fewest passing yards per game in the NFL and the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, and B) they give up the most yards per carry in the NFL. It kind of sucks, honestly, that C.J. ANDERSON shredded the Dolphins’ elite run D (and not just because Anderson was 30% owned and I had none of him), because this would be a great spot to use him if he were low-priced and low-owned. It’s still a very good spot, but $6900 makes it “less good” than it would have been! Add “assumed high ownership” to the mix, and he becomes significantly less appealing. With that said, I’m trying to do better about removing personal biases. I could very well roll with C.J. Anderson on my Optimal Team. Of course, Manning loves his stats and loves throwing, so it’s not like the Broncos will come in with a run-heavy game plan, but in his last three games, Anderson has had touch-totals of 17, 17, and 31 (averaging over 5 catches per game to boot). Obviously, as always, DEMARYIUS THOMAS, EMMANUEL SANDERS, and JULIUS THOMAS (if he plays) could all have big games as well. But against this secondary (and this run D), Anderson is the best bet for production.
The Broncos rank as the #2 run D by Football Outsiders DVOA. However, JAMAAL CHARLES’ last 4 games before Oakland were against Seattle (4th-ranked), Buffalo (8th-ranked), the Jets (5th-ranked), and the Rams (6th-ranked). Against those teams, he averaged (averaged!) 25 DraftKings points per game. Of course, a large part of that was the 6 TDs he scored in those four games, but even if you take away all 6 TDs, he still averaged 16 points per game against those four elite run defenses. I have been fading Charles every week because of the matchups, and every week he is low-owned, and is providing huge rewards to the small percentage that owns him. Vegas has the game projected at about 26-24 Broncos, and if anyone is getting points for the Chiefs, Charles is the one most likely to get them. Elsewhere, there are no WRs to consider (WRs still have 0 TDs for KC this year – an incredible stat), but I do think TRAVIS KELCE is a fine play. Denver has allowed the second-most catches to TEs this year, and are in the bottom-10 for TDs given up to TEs. With Chris Harris and Talib (assuming he is back from his hamstring injury) shutting down the outside (and the Chiefs having no outside threats anyway), I could see the TEs becoming vital to their ability to move the ball. Kelce is fairly cheap yet again ($4300), and he has as much upside as anyone.
Dolphins at Jets
RYAN TANNEHILL is worth considering if you want to save some money. The Jets have PFF’s highest-rated run D and give up the third-lowest yards per carry in the NFL, but they also allow the highest QB rating in the NFL. The one big problem is that the Jets have seen the eighth-fewest passing attempts in the NFL. (In a bizarre twist, they also have seen the eighth-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL – and they are just barely over 50% in time of possession on the season, so it’s not as if they are hogging the ball all game themselves. Pretty much, Jets opponents get the ball and just let the play clock wind down throughout the game so they can get things over with and move onto a real team the next week.) Anyhow, if the Jets can make a game out of it and force Tannehill to actually have to throw in order to win, he could put up a solid day. Worth noting: he has not topped 300 yards in a game all year, so that hurts. But he does pick up some rushing yards each game. No Dolphins RBs are worth targeting, of course. JARVIS LANDRY has the lowest aDOT in the NFL (average depth of target – in other words, he’s closer to the line of scrimmage when he catches the ball than any other WR in the NFL), so even with all the catches, he’s not a great tournament play, and MIKE WALLACE and Tannehill cannot seem to connect on deep throws. His most yards in a game this year? – 81. He hasn’t topped 8 targets since Week 3, and he hasn’t topped 60 yards since Week 6. If I went Tannehill, I’d probably roll him out there with no stack.
As for the Jets…really, this seems like an easy fade to me. Even at home, they’re only projected at 19 points (the second-lowest projected point total of the week, ahead of only Oakland and Tennessee at 18), and the Dolphins D is really, really good. Especially after getting embarrassed by Peyton, I think they’ll be on a rampage. PERCY HARVIN can be considered, simply because of the targets, but his opportunities to do something after the catch will be severely minimized. And as good as the Dolphins’ corners are, they sometimes have a more difficult time with big WRs. Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas are the two guys they’ve really had trouble with this year, and it’s not like ERIC DECKER is in that size (or skill) class, but he is a bigger guy, so it’s worth at least bringing up. In all, however, I’d prefer to just stay away from this offense completely.
That’s everything, fellas. Best of luck this week – and be sure to give me a follow on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle) for my late-week thoughts and your late-week questions!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to…wait, hold on just a second! I think I smell turkey.