Week 13 NFL Grind Down

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-04 19:45:34

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

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Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns						Buffalo Bills
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2.5	41	19.25				-2.5	41	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	16	23	6		Offense	18.2	27	22	31
Defense	18.2	27	22	31		Defense	22.0	16	23	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	7	4	19	10		Cleveland Browns	5	16	18	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Gordon	16	8	0	120		Watkins	84	45	5	649
Austin	63	40	2	482		Woods	64	36	2	361
Hawkins	87	50	2	694		Hogan	31	25	2	307
Cameron	31	13	1	250		Chandler	45	26	1	307

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total of the non-Thanksgiving games
•Use caution rostering Sammy Watkins against Browns CB Joe Haden
•Target Browns WR Josh Gordon

Cleveland Browns

WR Josh Gordon

Josh Gordon is who we thought he was. One of the big positives of Week 12, Gordon electrified in his regular season debut. The Browns dynamic WR and marijuana enthusiast lit (see what I did there?) the Falcons for 8 catches and 120 yards. He was also peppered with a whopping 16 targets. Gordon’s performance and usage reaffirms what we assumed last week, and he should be in consideration as an elite WR for the rest of the season. This week Gordon will tangle with a Bills defense allowing the 10th-most FPPG to WRs. The Bills outside CBs have been inconsistent in coverage, but Gordon is arguably matchup proof due to both talent and target volume. Gordon is a top-10 WR this week and is suitable for all formats.

RB Isaiah Crowell

If you want to watch a young RB that just oozes with talent and potential – go check out some clips of Isaiah Crowell. He displays a unique blend of prescient vision and explosive, violent running; it’s awesome. Crow stormed the Falcons for 12-88-2 last week, but remains in an unnecessary time-share with RB Terrance West. The split caps Crow’s upside – as does the unfortunate matchup with defense that grades out as the 6th-best run-defense squad in the NFL. The Bills hold opposing RBs to just 71 rushing yards per game and the 5th-fewest FPPG. Crowell’s price tag makes him a salary relief option, but there are other punt RBs with better matchups this week.

WR Andrew Hawkins

I wrote up Hawkins as a sneaky high-floor play last week but also suggested we exercise caution rostering the lil lightning bug until we saw him coexist with Josh Gordon. And just as we thought, Hawkins saw far fewer targets but still was able to turn them into 5-93. If Baby Hawk is only going to get 5 targets a week, there won’t be much to like here, but I think his elite elusiveness and high-percentage usage plays well as a complement to Gordon. On full PPR sites, Hawkins is a possible salary relief WR.

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

Yikes. After his 3-35 in Week 12 (against the Jets, no less), Watkins has now been held to 4 or less catches and less than 36 yards in each of his last 3 games. I don’t think we’ll see Watkins get just 5 targets again this season, but the game was an absolute stomp, so Watkins basically took the night off. Unfortunately Watkins now will be tasked with overcoming the coverage of Browns shutdown CB Joe Haden. It’s one of the worst matchups for an NFL WR right now, and although the Bills do move Watkins around a lot, he’s an awfully risky option. Watkins’ crazy athleticism and versatile usage makes him tournament-viable as a super-contrarian #2 WR, but I would simply look elsewhere.

WR Robert Woods

While Sammy Watkins took Week 12 off, his WR partner Robert Woods was busy ripping the Jets for 9-118-1 and winning someone a million bucks on DK. I’ve been a fan of Woods since his days at USC and have written him up in past #GrindDowns both as a punt and as a sneaky alternative when Watkins faces a lockdown CB. Woods’ mention this week fits the latter criteria – with Haden on Watkins, Woods should mainly see CB Buster Skrine, who I literally can’t think of any more insults for after we’ve targeted him for basically all of his 6 allowed TDs. Woods isn’t the ideal matchup hammer, but is a route-running technician who should be a solid-floor salary relief WR while Watkins tangles with Joe Haden.

The Stable of Bills RBs

The Bills RBs FINALLY get a favorable matchup this week… but now they’re all seeing work, and destroying each other’s value in the process. Both Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon saw 13 touches last week; Dixon led the Bills with 62 total yards and a TD, while FJax managed 45 total yards and a TD of his own. Bryce Brown saw just 6 touches. Hopefully the blowout was the reason we saw such a split between FJax and Dixon, as Dixon is a very pedestrian talent. If rostering one Bills RB this week, I’d go back to Ol’ Faithful Fred Jackson due to his versatile usage, but use caution rostering Bills RBs until we see FJax reclaim a larger share of this backfield.

Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts

Washington Redskins						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	51	20.75				-9.5	51	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.7	22	21	9		Offense	30.3	4	2	17
Defense	30.3	4	2	17		Defense	19.7	22	21	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	20	28	9	29		Washington Redskins	30	5	21	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon						Wayne	91	50	2	605
Jackson	72	42	4	858		Hilton	97	63	4	1083
Roberts	57	28	2	294		Nicks	48	24	3	243
Reed						Allen	40	26	7	374

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total with Colts heavy favorites: target Colts playmakers
•Depth Chart Update: Redskins will start QB Colt McCoy this week
•Use caution with Redskins players

Washington Redskins

QB Robe… Colt McCoy?!

With RG3 looking like the Monsters from Space Jam stole all his game, the Redskins will now turn back to Colt McCoy at QB. McCoy has clear physical limitation and resorts to mainly check downs and short throws – although he did take some encouraging downfield shots to DeSean Jackson in his Week 8 start. The Colts have been eviscerated by the pass at times this season, but did just hold Blake Bortles to 170 yards. Don’t get too cute: avoid McCoy.

RB Alfred Morris

Morris has been the one constant positive on offense for the Redskins, recklessly rumbling regardless of the team’s starting QB. He surprisingly cracked open a tough 49ers defense for 125 rushing yards and a TD last week. Morris a Colts defense that is just two weeks removed from getting pasted for 199 yards and 4 TDs by Jonas Gray and the Patriots. With a new QB at the helm, expect the Redskins to funnel the offense through Morris – he’s a volume-dependent top-15 RB this week.

WR DeSean Jackson

DJax’s production didn’t suffer when Colt McCoy last started, as the noodle-armed QB still made a few downfield heaves that Jackson was able to haul in. Even with Djax’s usage somewhat intact, the QB situation makes him a riskier play than normal. DJax is still a high-ceiling option, but should be restricted to tournament play this week.

TE Jordan Reed/Niles Paul

Colt McCoy is a fan of throwing to his TE, as evident in Jordan Reed’s 7 targets back in Week 8. Reed is still hampered by a hamstring injury though, so be sure to monitor his status; if Reed can’t go, Niles Paul will again start in his place. Either player would be a viable salary relief alternative against a Colts defense that allows the 8th-most FPPG to TEs.

WR Pierre Garcon

Garcon didn’t see much action in McCoy’s last start, though he did have a long TD in the game prior. Garcon has largely been an afterthought this season, and doesn’t figure to be a popular target this week either in the lockdown coverage of CB Vontae Davis. Avoid him.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Luck surprisingly had his worst game of 2014 against the Jags last week, as he was held under 300 yards for the first time this season, and threw less than 2 TDs for just the second time. He did stop the bleeding a little for his DFS owners with 49 rushing yards, but it was definitely not what folks were expecting when they rostered him. Luck shouldn’t have much trouble bouncing back this week against the Redskins: the Skins grade out as PFF’s 2nd-worst coverage unit and also allow the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs. It’s a recipe for DFS goodness. Luck is arguably the top QB this week.

WR TY Hilton

Hilton was one of the lone bright spots for the Colts last week as he blazed the Jaguars for 4-122-1. Hilton goes from facing one horrid secondary to facing one that grades even worse in coverage. I wasn’t sure how the Redskins corners would be able to slow down 49ers WR Anquan Boldin last week (he went on to drop 9-137-1 on them)… and now I’m REALLY not sure how they’ll contain TY. I don’t think they have a chance. Hilton is a high-upside top-10 WR.

WR Reggie Wayne

Unlike Hilton, Wayne was a total bust last week, managing just 3 catches for 10 yards despite seeing 9 targets. He should immediately be in play on full-PPR sites this week against the Redskins unimpressive slot coverage.

TE Coby Fleener

Coby Fleener failed to capitalize on having the TE gig to himself last week. His 2-28 didn’t help anyone, but at least he offered substantial price savings on certain sites. Fleener will see another favorable matchup this week against the Redskins, who allow the 9th-most FPPG to opposing TEs. Fleener is a top-10 TE this week, and should be underowned after lighting so many people’s wallets on fire last week.

RB Trent Richardson / BOOM Herron

Richardson was a predictable bore last week, but also was surprisingly out-touched by Dan Herron. Herron racked up 96 total yards to Richardson’s more pedestrian 42, and appears to have forced a split of the RB work going forward. Neither RB is an ideal play this week against the Redskins stifling run defense. If you’re taking one, I would roster Boom Herron, who contributes more in the passing game and should provide more savings.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Tennessee Titans						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43	18				-7	43	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.5	29	20	26		Offense	22.0	16	29	8
Defense	22.0	16	29	8		Defense	17.5	29	20	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	16	19	32	7		Tennessee Titans	9	26	12	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	74	44	4	501		Johnson	104	58	1	667
Washington	44	24	1	410		Hopkins	82	51	4	803
Hunter	64	27	3	480		Posey
Walker	72	43	4	667		Graham	28	18	1	197

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total with the Texans a healthy favorite
•Target Texans WRs as tournament plays
•Avoid the Titans

Tennessee Titans

TE Delanie Walker

Delanie Walker went ballistic against the Eagles last week, getting huuuuuge chunks of yards on his 5 catches and finishing with 155 yards. The performance was a complete surprise. Walker is clearly a trusted target for QB Zach Mettenberger and will face another tough test in the Texans, who allow just the 7th-fewest FPPG to TEs. Walker is an intriguing top-8 TE play.

WR Justin Hunter

Hunter had one of his better games of the season last week, with 4-64-1 against the Eagles. It’ll be interesting to see if the Texans opt to shadow Hunter with CB Jonathan Joseph this week, as most of the production contributing to the Texans allowing the 4th-most FPPG to WRs has come away from Joseph’s coverage. Given the chance he’ll see the Texans inferior corners, Hunter is worth consideration as a cheap tournament WR.

QB Zach Mettenberger

Mettenberger was the latest QB to benefit from facing the Eagles last week, as he racked up 345 yards and 2 TDs. While the Texans pass defense should offer a stiffer test, it’s worth noting that Mettenberger did cut them up for 299-2-1 back in Week 8. He’s in play as a salary relief alternative at QB.

RB Bishop Sankey

Sankey had a pedestrian 51 total yards last week and now has 38 rushing yards or less in 3 of his last 4 games. He isn’t worth considering.

Houston Texans

GTD: The Story of the 2014 Texans RBs

It sounds like Arian Foster may be able to return from injury this week. You know the drill: if Foster plays, he’s a top RB option. If he doesn’t play, consider Alfred Blue as a salary relief RB.

Texans RB Arian Foster teased us with another week of Game-Time Decision status last week and ultimately wasn’t able to go. In his place, though, Alfred Blue excelled (beyond what I think anyone anticipated). Blue battered the Browns for 156 yards on 36 carries in Week 11. With Foster a GTD decision AGAIN and another weak run defense on deck, Week 12 feels eerily familiar. So treat it the same way we did last week: Foster is a top-5 RB play if he’s able to go, and Blue will be a strong salary relief option if Foster is out.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins gets the call as a #GrindDown Matchup Hammer again this week as we again target horrid Titans CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson. BWW now owns PFF’s 10th worst coverage grade among CBs, but will be a good bet to add to his 540 yards and 5 TDs allowed this week. Hopkins is a top-20 play with matchup upside.

WR Andre Johnson

I was excited with Andre 1000’s prospects with Mallett at QB, but the return to Fitzmagic does temper my enthusiasm. Like Hopkins, Johnson should see some targets against BWW, but will also see top Titans CB Jason McCourty. I don’t have much analysis here: Johnson is an uninspiring play, best used as your final WR in tournaments.

QB Ryan Fitzmagic

The Beard Returns. The uber-sharp Adam Levitan talked about The Amish Rifle on Friday’s Expert Roundtable, and also featured him in this week’s Levitan’s Leverage – check out both for a full breakdown of The Bearded One’s merits. The gist is that Fitzmagic checks in at minimum price on FD (and near minimum on DK), and that means he really doesn’t need to produce much to meet value. Considering the plus matchup his WRs will have against #2 CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, and 10-30 rushing yards he provides each week, Fitz is a near-lock to hit his value number.

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