Week 13 NFL Grind Down - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-30 15:55:04

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Arizona Cardinals						Atlanta Falcons
Sun – 4:05 PM						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	44.5	23.5				2.5	44.5	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.8	18	14	29		Offense	23.8	12	10	20
Defense	23.8	12	10	20		Defense	21.8	18	14	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	22	32	25	9		Arizona Cardinals	6	2	23	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	69	46	2	658		Jones	118	72	4	980
Floyd	59	26	4	454		White	88	56	5	662
Brown	71	37	5	529		Douglas	32	21	1	223
Carlson	45	26	1	279		Toilolo	35	19	1	189

Quick Grind

•Terrible matchup for the Falcons passing attack
•Excellent matchup for Cardinals rushing attack

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

Why didn’t the Cardinals just rest Ellington when they had the chance? He just isn’t the same player since his initial injury. Ellington stumbled against another tough run defense last week, recording his third straight sub-70 total yard performance. Ellington does draw the top RB matchup from a DVP standpoint this week though, as the Falcons allow an absurd 29.9 FPPG to RBs. The question is: can Ellington fully take advantage? I don’t think there’s any doubt that Ellington is a top-10 RB this week, especially on full PPR sites, but I worry about his upside. Ellington’s matchup and talent give him a theoretically massive ceiling this week, but use caution expecting the world from him given what we’ve seen over the last month plus.

Cardinals Receivers

The Cardinals WRs should be in play this week considering both their bargain prices and the matchup with an exploitable Falcons secondary. But… Drew Stanton is their QB. I simply can’t trust any of these WRs as anything more than a tournament play, even with the strong matchup. If Larry Fitzgerald sits, it should mean more opportunities for both Michael Floyd and John Brown, but neither player is a consistent performer, nor runs reliable chain-moving routes like Fitz does. The benefit to taking one in a tournament (especially Floyd) is that you can really create an absurd lineup around them, and you’re punting with a player that can still be a strong performer. The risk is undeniable though. Brown and Floyd are the definition of low-floor/high-ceiling plays this week.

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

I added last week to the ‘When Game Plans Go Awry’ table of Julio Jones’ game logs above, and it paints the same picture as all the rest. Don’t expect much to change this week against stud CB Antonio Cromartie. Cro has reclaimed his position as an elite cover corner this season, and is the size/speed prototype counter to Julio’s own size/speed freakiness. Am I saying Cro will fully shut down Julio? I most certainly am not. But with the way the Falcons offensive line has been imploding for months, and the effect it’s had on the passing game, the odds are good that Julio is limited like he has been repeatedly. Your elite WR dollars are better spent elsewhere this week.

WR Roddy White

Roddy has gone 6-72-1, 8-75-1, 9-96 the last three games… but I fear that production comes to a screeching halt this week against the coverage of Cards CB Patrick Peterson. There’s not much else to say: priced as a top-15 WR on certain sites, there’s limited upside to rostering White this week. He’s a contrarian play only under the watch of Peterson.

QB Matt Ryan

Ryan is becoming sooooo cheap across the industry, but it’s a result of him being sooooo ‘meh’ for the last several games. With his top 2 weapons about to face an extremely tough duo of CBs, I would avoid Matt Ryan for another week. He is a super-contrarian tournament play at best.

RB Steven Jackson

Just don’t.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

New England Patriots						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 4:25 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	58.5	27.75				-3	58.5	30.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.5	1	5	14		Offense	32.2	2	3	15
Defense	32.2	2	3	15		Defense	32.5	1	5	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	13	17	24	15		New England Patriots	15	23	2	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	102	70	2	695		Nelson	106	68	9	1066
LaFell	79	48	5	674		Cobb	79	58	10	837
Amendola	19	11	1	95		Adams	43	28	3	296
Gronkowski	90	58	9	812		Quarless	32	21	3	230

Quick Grind

•Game of the Week? MASSIVE Vegas total, but concerning defensive matchups on both sides
•Use caution with Packers passing attack
•Will the Patriots focus on their rushing attack to limit the Packers offense?

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski had a ‘down’ game last week with 5 catches for 78 yards. A DOWN game. He is a matchup-proof freak of nature, who know faces a defense that has allowed at least 45 yards to the last 5 #1 TEs they’ve faced. Gronk will feed this week. He’s the top TE play.

QB Tom Brady

Tom Terrific faces a tough test this week against a surprising Packers pass defense that allows just 237 pass yards per game, and grades out as the 7th-best coverage unit. Like Aaron Rodgers on the other side, other elite QBs are better options that Brady this week. Brady is best used as a tournament play that will likely be underowned.

WR Julian Edelman

We called Edelman a sneaky play here in last week’s #GrindDown, and Edelman came through with an impressive 11-89 on 15 targets. I don’t expect nearly as strong of a performance against the strong slot coverage of Casey Hayward this week. If you’re stacking Patriots, I would stick to pairing Brady with Gronk instead of Edelman. I don’t think Edelman will be Brady’s preferred target unless the Pats go 2 TE and Edelman matches up with outside CB Tramon Williams.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen is coming off an 8-catch, 48-yard performance in Week 12, and has been his usual modest receiving threat the last few weeks. With the other Pats passing threats facing tough matchups, this could be a game where Vereen is leaned on more than usual. He is an interesting upside tournament play, especially on full-PPR sites.

Large Patriots RBs

There’s a good chance we could see a game-plan repeat of the Patriots/Colts game this week, where the Pats focus on a clock-killing power-run game to both limit the Packers possessions and exploit their biggest defensive vulnerability. That would mean lethal doses of either newly resigned RB LeGarrette Blount, or hero-turned-goat Jonas Gray. The problem is we don’t know who it will be. The Pats seem to love Blount for whatever reason, so it seems that preference would go to him. But would it surprise you if the Pats went right back to their treasured undrafted rookie? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me. Consider either Pats big back in tournaments, and adjust your rosters accordingly if you think the Patriots will focus on the run this week.

WR Brandon LaFell

LaFell’s matchup with Packers CB Sam Shields makes him the least favorable of the Patriots WRs this week. He’s best restricted to tournament play.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

I don’t think Rodgers has access to his usual ceiling this week given the likely matchup problems his top 2 weapons will see from the Patriots secondary. He’ll still rack up production and will outscore the vast majority of his peers, but at his price, you’re likely better off pivoting to a QB with a more favorable matchup in cash games. In tournaments, Rodgers makes a fine play, and should be slightly underowned this week due to the matchup.

WR Jordy Nelson

First, let me clarify that I think Jordy is one of the NFL’s best WRs, and that it’s nearly impossible for any defense to fully contain him. That said, I think the Patriots have a great chance of limiting Nelson’s impact on this game with a combination of press-man coverage from Brandon Browner, and safety coverage over the top. Nelson could still overcome this coverage, or even coverage from Revis if the Pats take that route, but know that Nelson’s perpetually high ceiling now comes with the risk of a low floor this week.

WR Randall Cobb

If there’s a member of the Packers passing attack you should take this week, it’s probably Randall Cobb. The Cobb-Rodgers connection has been otherworldly this season, and I’m not entirely convinced that anyone can fully contain Cobb when he’s working from the slot. There is a worry here, though. It makes the most sense to me that the Pats will shadow Cobb with Darrelle Revis. The risk of Revis alone likely risks Cobb as a contrarian, tournament-only play.

RB Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy rumbled for 100+ yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings for the second time this season last week. He might need to do the same to the Patriots if their defensive scheming is able to lock down the Packers elite WRs. Lacy has the matchup in his favor here, as the Pats are allowing the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs this season, despite some stiff run-defense of late. I would rather avoid the Packers entirely then take a guess with rostering Lacy, but on paper he certainly seems like their best option for offensive success.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 8:30 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1.5	49.5	25.5				1.5	49.5	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.2	5	1	18		Offense	23.7	13	27	2
Defense	23.7	13	27	2		Defense	30.2	5	1	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	11	6	8	14		Denver Broncos	27	9	14	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	124	82	9	1192		Bowe	67	44	0	551
Sanders	105	76	7	1079		Avery	24	14	0	156
Welker	47	34	2	282		Hammond	9	3	0	38
Thomas	54	40	12	426		Kelce	54	41	4	542

Quick Grind

•Chiefs not huge underdogs – do they have a chance?
•Injury to Chiefs secondary means opportunity for Broncos WRs
•Keep an eye on Broncos TE Julius Thomas’ injury status

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

The Chiefs allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to QBs, but Peyton still chopped them for 3 TDs back in Week 2. He should again see little resistance as the Chiefs scramble to realign their secondary in Eric Berry’s absence. Manning is a top-3 QB play.

Broncos WRs

The Chiefs have never had an answer for the Broncos WRs. That Emmanuel Sanders’ 9-108 and Demaryius Thomas’s 5-62-1 were actually a letdown says a lot about the talent and expectation of this ridiculous duo. With an inevitable shift in the Chiefs secondary due to the absence of safety Eric Berry, the Broncos WRs retain their usual elite upside. Demaryius is arguably the top WR this week, with Sanders firmly a top-10 WR play as well – deploy them both confidently in any format.

RB CJ Anderson

Mr Anderson LIT the tough Dolphins run defense for nearly 200 total yards and a TD last week. As I discussed on the Expert Roundtable, Anderson is the one Broncos RB without weakness in their backfield, and he is maximizing his opportunity as the (only) Broncos RB. Don’t get scared off of the Chiefs DVP ranking as the 3rd-stingiest against RBs – they still allow 105 rushing yards per game. Anderson will be just fine, but he might be the odd man out this week as Peyton always manages to rip apart the Chiefs secondary.

Broncos TEs

Julius Thomas is again questionable this week. As usual: Thomas is a top-3 TE if he plays, and Jacob Tamme is NOT a viable option if Thomas is Out.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

There have only been two games this season where Charles hasn’t been his absurdly elite self, and the worst one was against these Broncos in Week 2. Charles had just 3 touches for 12 yards before being knocked from the game with an ankle injury. Expect a MUCH different approach this week. The only concern here is if the Chiefs can commit to the run for long enough. HC Andy Reid is a mercurial leader, and has shown before that he’ll curiously go away from Charles in favor of throwing to future hall-of-fame WR talents such as “Junior Hemmingway” and “Frankie Hammond”. There’s little reason to risk Charles against this tough Broncos run defense, and unfavorable game script, but that does make him an interesting contrarian tournament play in a game where he is the Chiefs Obi-Wan Kenobi.

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce had his first impressive game of 2014 against these Broncos in Week 2, a 4 catch, 81 yard performance. Since then, the Broncos have been whipped by a few stud TEs (Gronk, Gates), and even not-so-stud TEs (Mychal Rivera). The Broncos are basically completely depleted at LB and their safeties have frequently been liabilities in coverage. Fire up Kelce as a top-5 TE this week.

WR Dwayne Bowe

In his 2014 debut, Bowe managed just 3-40 against the Broncos. I wouldn’t expect much more this week. Avoid him.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Miami Dolphins						New York Jets
Mon – 8:30 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	41.5	23.5				5.5	41.5	18
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.9	10	13	11		Offense	15.8	31	32	10
Defense	15.8	31	32	10		Defense	25.9	10	13	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	32	7	22	30		Miami Dolphins	2	14	6	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	87	48	7	592		Decker	68	43	4	450
Landry	66	49	5	450		Harvin	53	39	0	307
Hartline	49	31	1	360		Kerley	55	26	1	237
Clay	58	39	2	346		Cumberland	31	15	1	154

Quick Grind

•Concerning low Vegas total
•Avoid the Jets!

Miami Dolphins

WR Jarvis Landry

Between Landry and ODB, the rookie LSU WRs I write up every week are seriously making an impact in both the NFL and in DFS. Landry is actually the most expensive WR in this game (on DK), largely due to his extremely impressive 7-50-2 against an elite Broncos secondary. Landry racked up 5-44 on shutdown CB Chris Harris (though Harris also had an INT), while his 2 TDs came against burnable rookie CB Bradley Roby and coverage scapegoat Rahim Moore. Landry is getting peppered with targets in general and in the red-zone, and needs to be viewed as the Dolphins most consistent option at WR. Against this horrid Jets secondary, Landry is definitely in play as your final WR.

WR Mike Wallace

Don’t forget about Mike Wallace this week. The buzz on Wallace has basically faded since Jarvis Landry burst onto the scene, and Wallace and Tannehill have yet to establish any sort of connection or chemistry on deep passes. HOWEVER, if there was ever a week for Wallace & Tannehill to combine for an aerial assault, it would be against the Jets no-name secondary. Wallace’s price is also becoming too low to ignore, making him an ideal tournament play.

RB Lamar Miller

Miller had just 67 total yards last week against a tough Denver run defense, but also had 2 possible TDs vultured by his backup and his QB. There’s little need to roster Miller this week against a still-Elite Jets run-defense that consistently grades as the top run-defense squad on PFF, and allows just 79 rushing yards and the 7th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. It’s worth noting that all-world DE Muhammed Wilkerson might miss this game, but I don’t anticipate Miller becoming suddenly becoming an outstanding play as a result. Look elsewhere for your #2 RB this week.

New York Jets

WR Percy Harvin
Last week the Jets faced a ruthless Bills pass rush that completely disrupted the passing game. This week the Jets face a ruthless Dolphins pass rush that will completely disrupt the passing game. Harvin needs mass opportunities to produce, and he wasn’t able to get them last week when the offense was crumbling. It would be very risky to roster him expecting a different result this week.

WR Eric Decker
It was Decker taking the deep responsibilities and producing last week, but his team-high 8 targets and 4-63 is all you need to know about the Jets passing attack in Week 12. Like Harvin, is would be an especially risky and contrarian play to roster Decker with the horrible matchup and uncertainty at QB.

QB Geno Smith/Mike Vick (analysis sponsored by the Miami Dolphins Defense)
I’m mentioning the Jets QB duo here because I wouldn’t be surprised to see BOTH QBs used in this game. The QB situation is arguably the worst in the NFL, with neither player having any semblance of job security thanks to both ineffective play and the Coach/GM/Owner power struggle. Don’t get cute here and take a Jets QB, but DO be smart and roster the Dolphins Defense. The sack and turnover upside is immense.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!