Week 13 NFL Grind Down - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-29 23:53:24

Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams

Oakland Raiders						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 1:00 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43	18				-7	43	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.0	30	28	32		Offense	19.0	24	25	23
Defense	19.0	24	25	23		Defense	16.0	30	28	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	25	8	28	8		Oakland Raiders	17	29	10	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	82	54	4	545		Britt	53	27	3	477
Holmes	63	32	4	474		Austin	30	23	0	172
Moore	27	12	0	115		Bailey	23	15	1	175
Rivera	61	38	3	334		Cook	70	37	1	473

Quick Grind

•Rams favored for first time since 1999
•Avoid the Raiders

Oakland Raiders

DO NOT ROSTER ANY RAIDERS – THEY ARE REALLY, REALLY BAD

With RB Latavius Murray – my top call of Week 12 – unlikely to play this week, I have a really hard time finding any viable Raiders this week. Do we look to sneaky TE Mychal Rivera? TEs have done almost nothing against rangy LB Alec Ogletree and the Rams (9th-fewest FPPG to TEs). What about former #GrindDown crush Andre Holmes or garbage-time aficionado James Jones? You can do better. The Rams pass-rush has the potential to completely disrupt the Raiders offensive plans – I would look elsewhere for your rosters this week.

St. Louis Rams

RB Tre Mason

When a game features two teams whose offense we usually avoid, there’s often not much hope for viable plays. But as I discussed on Friday’s Expert Roundtable, I absolutely love Mason as a salary relief RB this week. Allow me to emphasize my point with a fancy table:

The moral of the story here: if you’re looking for salary relief, I recommend Tre Mason as your #2 RB.

The Rams Passing Attack

The Raiders can’t really cover anyone, but the Rams can’t really make anyone pay, either. It seems like WRs Kenny Britt and Stedman Bailey will trade flops and solid games – there just won’t be enough passing volume or quality QB play to support both. Usually we can at least justify our foolish decisions to roster Rams WRs based on WR/CB matchups, but this week I don’t mind either one. Britt offers a higher theoretical ceiling, but I would much rather take Tre Mason than hope for big plays from this neutered passing attack.

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

San Diego Chargers						Baltimore Ravens
Sun – 1:00 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	46	20.25				-5.5	46	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.3	15	8	28		Offense	26.8	6	15	3
Defense	26.8	6	15	3		Defense	22.3	15	8	28
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	19	1	29	6		San Diego Chargers	18	18	11	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	95	61	2	641		Smith	62	32	6	544
Floyd	55	36	4	604		Smith
Royal	52	34	5	451		Brown	14	11	0	107
Gates	59	40	9	491		Daniels	54	37	3	355

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total with the Ravens a healthy favorite
•Avoid the Chargers rushing attack

San Diego Chargers

WR Keenan Allen

The one Chargers play I can justify this week is Keenan Allen. Allen has finally started to emerge the last few weeks, culminating in a 6-104-1 line vs the Rams last week. The Ravens don’t have the personnel to contain Allen any more – expect Rivers to relentlessly target him regardless of the coverage. With Allen averaging 10+ targets over the last 5 games, he’s a high-floor WR play against the Ravens weak secondary.

QB Philip Rivers

Use caution with Rivers this week. There’s a LOT of talk (even from his own teammates) that he’s playing through a possibly serious rib injury. And now he faces a scary-good Ravens pass-rush that nobody hears about (unless they read the #GrindDown every week), but grades out as the top pass-rush unit in the NFL. On the flipside, the Ravens have been reduced to a Jets-esque squad of nobodies in the secondary. There is certainly opportunity here for Rivers and Co in the passing game, but it comes with substantial risk. Rivers is best used as a risk/reward tournament QB this week.

TE Antonio Gates

Gates has been irrelevant in both opportunity and production for the Chargers last 3 games. I don’t anticipate that changing against the Ravens stout TE coverage (6th-fewest FPPG to TEs). If you’re on Rivers, Gates is a fine contrarian stack partner, but otherwise I would rather pay up for Gronk or Graham.

RB Ryan Mathews

Mathews has looked VERY good since returning from his injury (to be honest I don’t think he even looked this good prior to his injury). He has 175 rushing yards on a ridiculous 6.25 YPC the past two games. Unfortunately he meets a SERIOUS buzzsaw defensive front in the Ravens this week. I’m going to resist nerding out about it, but seriously, just don’t mess with the Ravens run defense. Only ONE running back in the last 6 games has more than 58 total yards against them. They are just a bunch of monsters and heat-seeking missiles.

WR Malcom Floyd/Eddie Royal

Both of these guys are tournament-viable against the exploitable Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Contrary to what most might believe based on his 190 total yard, 2 TD demolishing of the Saints last week, Justin Forsett is not the best RB in the NFL – but he might have the best run-blocking offensive line. As I discussed on Friday’s Expert Roundtable, the magic starts up front for the Ravens, who have arguably the best duo of run-blocking guards in the NFL. Even with injuries throughout the year, the Ravens grade out as the 2nd-best run-blocking line on PFF. The line play makes Forsett viable in ANY week. He’s without doubt a top-10 RB this week, and should see plenty of work cementing the likely Ravens victory.

The Brothers Smith

Either of Torrey Smith and Steve Smith are in play this week, but there is some matchup concern here. One Smith will likely draw a strong matchup against CB Shareece Wright… but the other will see elite CB Brandon Flowers. The problem is that we can’t predict which Smith will see Wright most, because Steve is schemed around so much. There’s upside to taking a chance on either Smith, but the downside of a Flowers matchup is substantial.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals						Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Raymond James Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4	44.5	24.25				4	44.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.4	14	26	4		Offense	18.8	25	18	30
Defense	18.8	25	18	30		Defense	22.4	14	26	4
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	22	30	16		Cincinnati Bengals	10	30	5	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	65	41	4	629		Jackson	103	48	2	678
Sanu	87	50	5	719		Evans	82	49	8	841
Tate	20	14	1	159		Murphy	46	27	2	355
Gresham	57	42	2	322		Seferian-Jenkins	38	21	2	221

Quick Grind

•The Bengals passing attack should feast
•Tough matchup for Bucs passing attack
•Bengals backfield was a pure 50-50 split last week

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green

With an absurd, 16-target, 12-121 Week 12, AJ Green now has 18-248-1 in his past two games. He got open at will last week, and didn’t even need vertical chunk plays to pad his truly dominant performance. Against a Bucs defense allowing the MOST FPPG to opposing WRs… you know what to do. Give AJ the GREEN light in all formats this week.

WR Mohamed Sanu

I will continue to preach about Mo Sanu as a sneaky WR play even with AJ Green healthy. The Bengals #2 WR turned 7 targets into 5-48-1 last week and will basically make ANY defense pay for double-teaming AJ Green. Sanu will be a sneaky #2 WR again this week against the wimpy Bucs secondary.

RB Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard

The Bengals went directly into a 50/50 split of touches with Gio returning last week, with Jeremy Hill both more effective and converting the lone RB TD. That split should continue, and unfortunately will cap the upside for both RBs. I’ve been a constant Jeremy Hill supporter based on his talent, and he should remain the more efficient and effective committee member. With the Bucs allowing the10th-most FPPG and over 100 rushing yards per game to RBs, both Bengals RBs are top-20 options but are ideally suited for tournament play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson

While the Bucs Twin Terrors at WR present a matchup nightmare for nearly any defense, the Bengals have played strong pass defense all season and have seriously limited opposing WRs the last few weeks. For the season, the Bengals allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to WRs. An additional problem here, at least for Mike Evans, is his price; Evans is priced within the top-10 WRs on certain sites, which limits his value outside tournament play. Conversely, his partner VJax is modestly priced, and coming off one of his strongest performances of the season. Given the strong matchups for some of the top WRs this week, I don’t think you need to go out of your way to roster either Bucs WR, but both remain in play for tournaments.

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