Week 13 NFL Grind Down - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-30 03:04:20

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	44.5	23.5				2.5	44.5	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.2	20	12	19		Offense	14.6	32	30	22
Defense	14.6	32	30	22		Defense	21.2	20	12	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	27	20	24		New York Giants	23	31	7	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham						Shorts
Randle	97	53	2	557		Hurns	60	31	5	488
Parker	36	23	1	288		Lee	29	16	0	193
Donnell	65	46	6	461		Lewis	15	9	1	101

Quick Grind

•Surprising Vegas line – do the Jags have a chance?!
•Target The Giants offense

New York Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR

Oh, hi, I didn’t notice you there. Busy finishing up my ODB lower-back tattoo.
Yeah, the Jaguars. Just roasted for 4-122-1 by TY Hilton. No chance of containing ODB. Top-10 WR. On we go.

RB Rashad Jennings

Jennings had a healthy 27 touches and 120 total yards last week, but also surprisingly ceded 11 touches to rookie RB Andre Williams. The Jennings/Williams split is certainly concerning from the standpoint that we demand our RBs see allllllll the touches, and that probably isn’t going to happen with the Giants. An added concern is that the Giants might not need Jennings to shoulder 25+ touches against a weak Jags team. However, this is the Jags we’re talking about, who, amid spurts of stout defense, have also managed to allow the 7th-most FPPG and 106.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. I like Jennings as a top-10 RB this week, but understand if Grinders want to look elsewhere for RBs that should see more work this week.

TE Larry ‘LEGEND’ Donnell

Larry Donnell knows a Legend when he sees one, and has respectfully taken a backseat to the emergence of King Beckham. Working in Donnell’s favor this week is the Jags, who seem content to let everyone produce against them; this includes TEs, who average a respectable 5-58 each week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Donnell match that average against the Jags lax coverage, with a couple red-zone targets to boot. Donnell is a top-10 TE play as usual.

WR Rueben Randle

There’s some concern among industry folk that the Jags will sell out to stop ODB. The rookie’s talent has basically brainwashed me into thinking that isn’t possible. However, if you disagree, Reuben Randle would hypothetically benefit from the Jags focus on ODB. The problem here is that Randle is not a good WR. He gets heaps of targets, including elite-level red-zone opportunities for most of the season, yet has done next to nothing with them. The Giants passing attack will likely be clicking against the Jags this week though, so I don’t mind Randle as a salary relief alternative if you want to be a little contrarian and fade ODB.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson

There’s seriously not much to like on the Jags these days, and it might even be a stretch to write up Denard Robinson after he managed just 72 total yards against the Colts limp run defense. I won’t stop recommending the man formerly and currently known as Shoelace, though – as his transformation from gadget-play novelty to legit #1 RB is, well, legit. Robinson gets another tasty matchup this week against a Giants defense that provides the 5th-most FPPG to RBs and has allowed 100+ total yards to 5 of the last 6 RBs they’ve faced. You always worry the Jags will let the game slip away and it will impact Robinson’s touches, but with a shining matchup I like Robinson as a steady and sneaky #2 RB this week.

WR Cecil Shorts

Listen, Blake Bortles sucks right now. But if he WERE to not suck, a big reason would be his reliance on and heavy targeting of WR Cecil Shorts. That’s really all there is here. Shorts is the hypothetical top ‘weapon’ in the Jags passing attack, but I wouldn’t risk a roster spot on such a volatile offense.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings

Carolina Panthers						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	43	20				-3	43	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.5	23	17	25		Offense	18.4	26	31	13
Defense	18.4	26	31	13		Defense	19.5	23	17	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	8	24	17	5		Carolina Panthers	28	25	27	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	98	52	8	768		Patterson	60	30	1	350
Cotchery	58	32	0	433		Jennings	67	40	3	501
Bersin	16	11	1	128		Johnson	30	15	1	199
Olsen	84	56	5	719		Rudolph	22	13	1	146

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total & two struggling defenses = yuck
•Injury Update: Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon is OUT
•Depth Chart Update: Matt Asiata & Joe Banyard should handle Vikings RB duties

Carolina Panthers

WR Kelvin Benjamin

We can sometimes forget about the non-elite players after they’ve had a bye week. This is a reminder to NOT do so with Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin is far from the most talented rookie WR this season, but he’s unique from a DFS perspective in that come hell, highwater, or garbage-time —- Benjamin will be getting his production. I’ve often mentioned Benjamin as the ‘Obi-Wan Kenobi’-esque Only Hope of this Panthers offense, which gives him a reliable high floor to go along with his perpetual 2 TD upside. This week Obi-Wan appears to have a tough matchup against a Vikings defense allowing the 8th-fewest FPPG to opposing WRs… but similarly monstrous WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery photon torpedoed the Vikings for 225 yards and 3 TDs in Week 11. Obi-Wan is a fine #2 WR this week, and he might see a bit lower ownership than usual to boot.

TE Greg Olsen

With his role as Cam Newton’s safety valve, and some of the highest target volume upside for a non-Gronk/Graham TE, Greg Olsen should always be in weekly consideration. The matchup with the Vikings looks tough – they allow just the 4th-fewest FPPG to opposing TEs – but the Vikings have also faced a string of ‘Who?’ TEs (GB twice, DET, BUF, TB, etc.), and their TE coverage personnel aren’t scary at all. Olsen will produce as he always does, and is a top alternative for those not paying up for
Gronk or Graham at TE.

QB Cam Newton

Use caution with Cam this week. As I’ve mentioned here repeatedly: Cam was far, far from being healthy prior to the team’s bye. A gimpy Cam is a low-ceiling Cam, because so much of his potential comes from the threat of designed runs and scrambles. The big question here is whether the bye week was enough to get Cam healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him jumpstart the offense with more QB runs if his ankle(s) are feeling better, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him again pounded into the dirt repeatedly. If you’re willing to take the risk, few will roster Cam due to his recent performance, and he has as much theoretical upside as any QB in the NFL. Just know that his upside is limited as a purely pocket passer.

Panthers RBs

This is just a warning that RB Mike Tolbert is on track to return this week. With all three of their RBs healthy, DO NOT try to get cute and roster one.

Minnesota Vikings

RB Matt Asiata/Joe Banyard/Ben Tate?!

The Vikings backfield gets even more annoying this week with Jerick McKinnon out. In all likelihood, that means that Matt “3 Touchdowns” Asiata will get most of the opportunity against the Panthers embarrassing ‘run defense’. We’ve targeted RBs against the Panthers all season, as they provide the 4th-most FPPG to RBs, and an average line of 115-1 on the ground. There are two worries here. First, to their credit, the Panthers have tightened against the run the last two weeks (though shutting down the Falcons isn’t much of a feat these days). Second, Asiata probably won’t have the backfield to himself. The Vikings have been using practice-squader Joe Banyard in Asiata’s place, and figure to do the same now that McKinnon is out. Also consider that the Vikings do have Ben Tate on the roster. While Tate did nothing last week, you have to figure he’ll be a factor once he’s familiar; he’s now easily the most talented healthy RB on the roster. Ultimately Asiata is easily the top option, but I do worry that the Panthers defense could shockingly step up this week and stifle the pathetic Vikings offense.

WR Charles Johnson

Chuck Johnson, late season savior? Every season we type angrily when our teams are out of the playoff hunt, yet refuse to get their young talents actual playing time. The Vikings have made a lot of new (fantasy) fans though by suddenly giving size-speed prototype WR Charles Johnson playing time. And not just some playing time, but HEAPS of playing time that’s coming over established Vikings WRs. Keyboard QBs everywhere have been having a collective nerdgasm over Johnson’s 9-139-1 the last two weeks. And now he gets the Panthers, who allow the 8th-most FPPG to WRs. We can only hope Chuck gets to face CB Antoine Cason, a frequent #GrindDown victim and owner of PFF’s 2nd-worst CB coverage grade, but ultimately I think he’ll be on the opposite side of the field. Nonetheless, Johnson is the only viable Vikings WR this week, and makes for a sneaky salary relief option.

TE Kyle Rudolph

Rudolph saw a jolt in snaps in his second week back from injury, and although he only went 3-50 against the Packers, I think he’s now safe to deploy in DFS again. The worry here is the matchup with the Panthers and rangy LBs Luke Keuecuehly and Thomas Davis, who are a big reason the Panthers allow just the 10th-fewest FPPG to TEs. Rudolph’s role should continue to grow though, and he’s one of the few red-zone passing weapons the team has. Compared to his peers at the position, Rudolph is more of a contrarian TE punt play.

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints						Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun – 1:00 PM						Heinz Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	53	24.5				-4	53	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.2	8	6	7		Offense	26.2	8	4	21
Defense	26.2	8	4	21		Defense	26.2	8	6	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Pittsburgh Steelers	14	11	13	20		New Orleans Saints	26	21	26	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Colston	62	38	2	618		Bryant	29	16	6	321
Stills	51	39	2	529		Brown	123	88	9	1161
Meachem	17	5	0	85		Wheaton	62	36	2	442
Graham	88	65	9	670		Miller	54	43	2	501

Quick Grind

• Gary Oldman Seal of Approval = Play Everyone!
•This game can be stacked with either or both teams

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

I got on a soapbox for Brees as a top QB last week and he obliterated the ravaged Ravens secondary for 420 yards and 3 TDs. Now he faces a pass defense that has allowed at least 2 passing TDs in each of its last 5 games. Brees is a no-brainer top-5 QB this week.

TE Jim Graham

Graham ravaged the Ravens for 6-47-2 last week, and now faces a Steelers defense allowing the 10th-most FPPG to TEs. It’ll be interested to see how the Steelers attempt to defend Graham, with multiple possible TE cover men returning from injury this week. Regardless, it’s more of a curiosity than a worry – it’s almost impossible to contain this guy. Graham is the #2 TE this week.

WR Kenny Stills

I was high on Stills on a tournament play last week, but even I was surprised the Saints basically turned to Stills and said, ‘Hey, Kenny, can you be Brandin Cooks now?’ That’s what his usage made it seem like at least. Stills set season highs in both targets and yards as a result. He will be an excellent cheap play in all formats until his price adjusts.

WR Marques Colston

To be fair to the elderly Colston, he also produced last week, with 4-82-1 and his best game in over a month. Colston will continue to be a top target for Drew Brees, but I prefer the upside of Kenny Stills.

RB #AngryIngram

I tried to warn people off messing with the Ravens run defense last week, and Ingram had his first flop since Week 7 with just 27 rushing yards. He should have a MUCH easier time against this AFC North team, although the Steelers are on track to return several key defenders this week, including stud rookie LB Ryan Shazier. I’m not terribly high on Ingram this week, but he’s still a viable #2 RB.

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

Another 9 catches, 90 yards, and a TD for Antonio “I’m the best WR in the NFL” Brown last week. Ho hum. This week he should SHRED the Saints, who already allow the 6th-most FPPG and have been eviscerated by top WRs the past few weeks. I do have some concern that top Saints CB Keenan Lewis will shadow Brown… but does that even matter at this point. Brown is simply matchup proof. He is a top-2 WR play.

RB Le’Veon Bell

Le’Veon Bell had 222 total yards and a TD in his last game.
The Saints allowed 190 total yards and 2 TDs to Justin Forsett in their last game.
You know what to do.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben has looked more like the mediocre-production Big Ben we’re used to over the last two weeks. But at home, against the defense allowing the 8th-most FPPG to QBs, Ben is a viable tournament QB.

WR Martavis Bryant

Bryant isn’t getting much hype this week, but will certainly benefit from defensive focus on Antonio Brown. The Saints #2 CB is one of the worst in the NFL and has been an exploitable matchup all season. Bryant is a high-upside tournament WR this week.

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