Week 14: In Which I Have Patience
If only I had listened to my own advice…
When the guys at RotoGrinders asked me if I wanted to take on some football articles this season, I imagined that the most difficult aspect would be coming up with a topic for the intro each week. After all, most of my creative energies go toward my fiction writing, and on top of that I have my freelance writing, time with Abby, time with friends, time with family, and way too much time paying attention to the NFL and building daily fantasy football lineups. Would I have enough energy left over to come up with a worth-reading topic each week?
Much to my (pleasant) surprise, however, coming up with a solid intro topic each week has been about the easiest part of this article; every week, it seems, a perfect topic clicks in place with little effort on my part. In fact, I came up with this week’s topic early last week – “Week 14: In which I have patience.”
In order to see the conception of this topic (it’s not as smutty as that makes it sound…), we need to go back to Week 5 – my best week of the season. While I have had plenty of really solid weeks this year, Week 5 was one of those epic weeks you would tell your grandkids about if your grandkids weren’t going to be too busy flying around on their Hoverboards to listen or care. Not only did I finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the Game Changer that week, but I also finished 35th in the Millionaire Maker (a smaller payout than one would imagine, as that tournament is so top-heavy, but a cool feeling nonetheless), and for the second time this season, I nearly locked down a Qualifier as well (in fact, the team that finished 35th in the Millionaire Maker had originally been my “Optimal Team,” which I had in every Qualifier; had I not replaced that team with a new “Optimal Team” – the one that, still, finished 1st and 2nd in the Game Changer – I would have won two Qualifiers and locked down two seats to this week’s 50-person, $2.5 million King of the Beach Championship in Atlantis; speaking of Week 5, and of Atlantis, I did lock down a “Trip Only” package that week, which means that as you read this, I am lounging in the Bahamas for free – sucks to not be in the tournament, of course, but hey, it’s still tough to complain! – and that’s all from that epic Week 5). The coolest thing of all about that week, however, is that I did not touch my teams after Wednesday.
During the second half of that week, I was in Boston visiting my parents, and I had decided early in the week that I did not want to spend the entire weekend thinking about fantasy football and trying to put together teams; instead, I wanted to get everything out of the way early so I could fully enjoy my time with my parents. And so, I locked my teams into place by late Wednesday night, and I did not touch (or even think about) my teams for the remainder of the week. It was awesome! It was perfect…
And then, I tried to replicate that same thing the next week. And the following week. And the week after that. In fact, from Weeks 6 through 12, the latest in the week I completed my “final teams” was Friday. Seriously. And even though I had some good weeks in there (mixed in with more bad weeks than I am used to), I realized early last week that I had been making a mistake (thankfully, as we covered last week: “It’s okay to make a mistake!”).
The mistake?
I was locking myself into a team too early in the week. Of course, this would not be a big deal if I were willing to adjust these teams, but we all know how that goes, right? We’ve all built a “final team” in one sport or another, and have then changed that “final team” closer to lineups locking, only for the original team to play the role of the Rams, while the adjusted team plays the role of the Raiders. I learned my lesson in this regard fairly early (and still not early enough!) in baseball season: Once you lock your “final team” in place, you need to leave it alone.
Because football affords us the benefit of a full week of preparation, however, this then makes it important that we do not lock that “final team” in place too early! After all, if you lock your “final team” in place and then decide you are not going to touch this team no matter what, you essentially put yourself at a disadvantage compared to others, as you lose half of the available week of preparation. And sure, there are weeks (such as my Week 5 example) in which real life (which, contrary to popular assumption, is actually more important than fantasy sports) makes “locking in final lineups early” the right move. But in all other weeks, your best bet is to give yourself the full week to turn thoughts over in your mind, and to put yourself in the best possible position for success.
And so, I came to this realization early last week. And I decided that I would write about this realization in this week’s article. And what’s more, I decided that I would apply this realization to my own teams in Week 13 – I would wait until Sunday morning to lock anything in place.
If only I had listened to my own advice…
The plan was simple, really. I was not going to build any “official” teams all week. Instead, I was going to build lots of sample teams on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (as I always do), and then I was going to make a list of the players I liked the most and glance at this list every once in a while on Wednesday evening, Thursday, and Friday while enjoying Thanksgiving with Abby’s family. I also planned to not play the Thursday-only games, as I did not want to commit to that level of “lineup-locking” thought so early in the week; I wanted, instead, to just keep pondering players in the back of my mind, so that on Sunday morning I would be ready to build my teams at last.
Things went wrong on Thursday morning, when I woke up at 2 a.m….
My in-laws rented a large house in the hills of Arkansas in order for the whole family to have a place to stay together, and upon waking up in an unfamiliar bed, in an unfamiliar house, at two o’clock in the morning, I laid in bed for about two hours, unable to fall asleep. Of course, I used this time to think about all sorts of things, including the players I liked the most for Sunday. I got in some good thoughts. It probably would have been beneficial. But then, around 4 a.m., I realized: “Why am I just lying here doing nothing? While I’m up, I may as well build a team for the Thursday-only games; there are Qualifiers today, after all, and there’s really no reason to let those pass me by.”
Yup.
I built that team for the Thursday-only contests (even though I had decided earlier in the week to build NO teams for the Thursday-only contests) and closed my eyes to finally fall asleep, and as I closed my eyes, a couple ideas popped into my head for my Sunday teams. I picked up my phone again and put these ideas together to build a team. A “sample team”? A “practice team”? A “team to give me a better idea of what I like and dislike this week”? Nope. Not at all. It was a real team – a team I entered into contests. A team about which I then said, “Okay, this will be my main team on Sunday.” Uh…yeah.
The team I built for the Thursday-only contests did well – cashing in the Game Changer and finishing 4th in the Qualifier…all good things, right? I mean, it would have been all good things…except for the fact that I also built that team for the weekend right after I built that Thursday team. And since the Thursday team did well, that reinforced in my mind that I should absolutely, 100%, unequivocally, under no circumstances touch the Sunday team. It was locked in place, right? I should make sure I did not do something I would regret…right?
Patience? Psssh! Who needs patience!
Fast-forward, now, to Sunday morning. I was building my other teams (teams I would be entering in Qualifiers and in lower-buy-in tournaments – because, you know, I already built my Optimal Team for the higher-buy-in tourneys on Thursday morning!), and after my week of pondering players and having patience, things came together nicely.
I built 12 teams altogether, and these were my QBs on nine of them:
Andrew Luck (4x)
Colt McCoy (3x)
Matt Ryan (1x)
Ben Roethlisberger (1x)
I used Tre Mason on nine teams. I used Donte Moncrief on five teams. I had some Le’Veon Bell, plenty of Torrey Smith and DeSean Jackson, a good bit of Kenny Stills, lots of Vikings D, and even some Julio Jones and Jordan Reed.
In all, I used 28 players, and there were only a handful of duds in the entire mix.
Three of my 12 teams topped 200 points (I know, I know – me and everyone else, right?), and a few of my other teams came close. Good week, right?
Right.
Except…
Yeah. That “Optimal Team.” That team I locked in place on Thursday morning at 6 a.m. That team I refused to touch after that…and that I was adamant about using as my main team on the week.
I used Ryan Tannehill at QB on that team.
I used Michael Floyd as my salary-saving WR.
I used Charles Johnson as my sneaky, high-upside play.
I used Odell Beckham as my “sure thing.”
I used Arian Foster as my high-priced RB, instead of Le’Veon Bell.
I paid up for Rob Gronkowski.
But wait – it gets worse!
Because I had locked that team in place on Thursday morning and designated it as my Optimal Team…and because the other team I had locked in place Thursday morning (my Thursday-only team) had done well, I tried to incorporate as many of these Optimal Team players as I could onto the rest of my teams. “Hey,” I thought, “I locked this team into place right after creating that Thursday-only team that did well, so that probably means this team is good also; I should make sure I use as many of these players as I can on my other 11 lineups!”
And so, I used Charles Johnson on all 12 of my teams.
I used Odell Beckham on all 12 of my teams.
I used Arian Foster on seven teams, and only used Le’Veon Bell on two.
And on Sunday morning, when I was building my other 11 teams and decided I really liked Moncrief and Fleener, I refused to swap Floyd to Moncrief on my “Optimal Team,” because I didn’t want to “mess it up“…and I refused to switch off Gronk on my other teams, because he was on that Optimal Team, and it would obviously, therefore, be smartest to keep him on as many other teams as possible.
And so on.
Now, I’m not saying I would have finally won my King of the Beach seat if I had waited until Sunday morning to build all my teams (although…there were a number of combinations in the players I used – combinations that, uh, did not include Charles Johnson and Odell Beckham – that would have hit the $50k budget exactly and scored nearly 300 points!). I’m not saying I would have taken down first place in the Game Changer if I had completely waited until Sunday morning to build my teams (although…my second-Optimal Team – the team I would have been using in the Game Changer if not for the team I built on Thursday – would have taken down second and third in that tourney if I had double-entered that team, instead of double-entering that locked-in-place-on-Thursday team). And I’m not even saying I would not have come up with that exact same Optimal Team if I’d had patience and completely waited until Sunday morning (okay, that’s a lie – I am saying that!). But I am saying that I should have listened to my own advice. I should have waited to build my Optimal Team.
I should not have locked anything in place until I had given myself a full week of study, research, and pondering players.
I should have had patience.
And you know what? You should too.
Every week, in NFL, we have the advantage of a full week of preparation. And every week in which it is possible for you to do so, you should use the entire week!
That’s what I have for you: a preachy intro telling you that you should have patience.
And now, without further ado – for those of you who have been patient throughout this lengthy intro – we bid adieu to the intro. Here is (once more, by somewhat-popular demand) my thoughts on how I see each game playing out this week, along with indications of who I like (and dislike) on DraftKings as a result.
Anything you see missing? Anything you see differently from the way I am seeing it? Let us know in the comments! (And, as always, realize that the comments on this article usually stretch back a couple pages, so if you are wanting to see the thoughts others leave behind, or if you are wanting to see any responses I have from the sunny shores of paradise, you may have to scroll to the bottom of the comments and press “next.” Boom!)
Steelers at Bengals
Give Paul Guenther credit. The Bengals have a middling coverage unit, and they have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL (15 sacks through 12 games? – are you kidding me!), and yet, they have been one of the toughest teams to throw on this year. Where does that leave us, then, with one of the best passing offenses in the NFL going up against them? I doubt ANTONIO BROWN will have a difficult time getting open, but given the matchup, I have absolutely zero inclination to use him at his price tag ($9300). And although I’ve been preaching against MARTAVIS BRYANT for weeks (snap count and targets too low), his price is falling back into a comfortable range. Honestly, however, the way to attack the Bengals is on the ground – an area where they have tightened up a great deal in recent weeks. Given the price jump for LE’VEON BELL, then, I also do not see him being worth the salary cap hit this week. I expect a balanced attack from the Steelers (with perhaps a bit of an emphasis on the ground), and I expect this to be a fairly low-scoring affair (in the last three years, only one Steelers-Bengals game has topped 42 combined points). I see no strong plays on the Steelers side, especially given the price-hikes we are seeing as a result of the Steelers putting up gaudy stats lately (at home, where they have played much better this year).
The Steelers defense has been bad against the run, and they have been worse against the pass. This game should be close, which will likely lead to a balanced attack from the Bengals – and since we are talking about the Bengals, it should be noted that their idea of a “balanced attack” is “run the ball a lot, and limit the number of throws we ask ANDY DALTON to make.” In his last six games, Dalton is averaging under 30 passes per game (on the season, in fact, only five teams have attempted fewer passes than the Bengals). Also, a fun fact: over the last two years, A.J. GREEN has only one touchdown versus Dick Labeau’s defense (he is averaging 15.15 DraftKings points against the Steelers during that time – a respectable number, but nowhere near what you would want from him at his price). Because I do not expect the Steelers to get out to a big lead and force the Bengals to pass, my attention is primarily drawn to the running backs – and while their price tags have not dropped as much as I would like, both make for interesting plays. As has been documented in this space in the past, I prefer JEREMY HILL over GIOVANI BERNARD, but either could make for a solid, high-upside play, with the assumption each will receive around 18 touches. The return of Ryan Shazier and Troy Polamalu tighten up the Steelers run D a bit, but in an AFC North dog fight, I’d be fine rolling with a cheap, talented running back. MOHAMED SANU makes for an intriguing option as well, but betting on “talent” over “usage” is always dangerous, and his target totals the last four weeks have been 3, 7, 6, 7 – which means there are certainly better values at the price. In all, there is nothing that really jumps off the page on this side of the ball.
Rams at Redskins
The big question, if you wish to target Rams players, is whether you think the Redskins can keep this game close. Do not be fooled into thinking SHAUN HILL is a good quarterback…and the Rams have severely limited his passing attempts lately, which caps his upside, even against the Redskins. I cannot imagine I will be on Hill. Given the high percentage of targets STEDMAN BAILEY is seeing, however (27% of passes went to him last week, and 26% went to him the week before), he is very much worth considering at only $4300. He is only on the field about half the snaps, but that won’t matter if he gets another 7 or 8 targets. Given the Redskins strength against the run and TRE MASON’s price (and presumed ownership) jump, he’s an easy fade for me. Finally, JARED COOK intrigues me. He only received one target last week, but Hill’s previous two games saw target totals of 9 and 5 to Cook. Washington is very weak against the TE, making Cook a player worth examining at the minimum price.
I expect the Redskins to start this game aiming for a balanced attack, but after a few short drives in which they are unable to really run the ball with ALFRED MORRIS on this front 7, they will probably open things up a bit. Vegas has the Redskins projected at an ultra-low 21 points, and I don’t see the Rams creating any sort of garbage time opportunities, which means COLT MCCOY will have to do his damage in a competitive game. With DESEAN JACKSON’s price staying reasonable (and with McCoy loving him dearly), I could see him as a strong play (assuming his leg contusion does not keep him off the field), and I could see the pendulum swinging to PIERRE GARCON at last this week even if DeSean plays, as Gruden has stated he wants to get Garcon more involved (a worthwhile gamble at only $4k? – perhaps), but there is certainly nothing on this team in “must play” range. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Rams are excellent against tight ends, which makes JORDAN REED less appealing with his price and (presumed) ownership jump. In all, this should be a close, low-scoring game with a bit of fantasy goodness, but you will have to dig around a bit to find it.
Giants at Titans
Blidi Wreh-Wilson has allowed a QB rating of 112.4 on passes thrown in his direction. That’s not very good (in fact, only Aaron Rodgers has a higher QB rating this year, among all NFL QBs). This bodes well for the Giants passing offense. Another positive for the Giants passing O is that their defense stinks, which should enable the Titans to keep this game competitive and prevent the Giants from simply running out the clock. While I am tempted to recommend RUEBEN RANDLE with the assumption his targets will go back up (averaging 3.5 targets per game over the last two weeks), I think ODELL BECKHAM JR. is still the WR who deserves serious consideration here, even with price taken into account, as he should run about 40% of his routes at Wreh-Wilson, and even when he is matched up on Jason McCourty, it is not as if this is a difficult test. As bad as the Titans run D is, I see this being much closer to a timeshare than most people want to imagine. The Giants season is in the tank, RASHAD JENNINGS is banged up (and is under contract for three more years), and ANDRE WILLIAMS is the rookie who needs more playing time to keep getting better anyway. I’m not so sure rolling with Jennings is as obvious a play as one might imagine – and, of course, this is all assuming Jennings even plays. (If Jennings sits, I still cannot 100% endorse Williams as a GPP play, as he has not shown much explosiveness or upside, but he would make for a very solid cash game play given an assumption of 20 carries against a poor run defense.) As for the requisite “tight end afterthought” – I don’t hate LARRY DONNELL, but I don’t see ELI MANNING having to throw to him a ton, as he will have time and open WRs to pick up bigger chunks of yardage.
Hmmmm. In what should be a close game against a bad defense, there are some intriguing, low-cost options on the Titans – although, honestly, the fact that the game is likely to be close removes a large chunk of the predictability from the equation. The Titans are consistently failing to get anything going on the ground, which makes it tough to trust BISHOP SANKEY, even against a poor run defense (especially considering Sankey’s disappointing usage). And ZACH METTENBERGER should be able to get some things going…but at the same time, I have a hard time envisioning a blowup game from him – one that will make you wish you had used him. With Justin Hunter out for the season, KENDALL WRIGHT and NATE WASHINGTON are semi-intriguing options, but they are both far more expensive than they really should be (especially Washington at $4600). The most intriguing option on this offense, I would have to say, is DELANIE WALKER at a reasonable $4200. After he burned a lot of people last week, his ownership should be low, and the Giants are very poor against the TE – sitting at the bottom of the NFL in yards per catch allowed to the TE position.
Panthers at Saints
Oh, boy. I would love to recommend CAM NEWTON in this one. He is going to tempt me all week, as the Saints are awful against both the run and the pass, and we know that Cam has 40-point potential. What’s more, the Saints should put up a lot of points, forcing the Panthers to go into catchup mode. But even still, Cam has been surprisingly bad lately. Keep him in mind, but gauge your tolerance for risk and disappointment before moving forward with him on your teams. KELVIN BENJAMIN is obviously a strong play as the sole solid WR option on the Panthers, although he did get absolutely shut down (2 catches for 18 yards) when these teams met in Week 9 – in Charlotte, no less. The Saints are excellent against TEs, leaving GREG OLSEN as an unappealing option, and JONATHAN STEWART could be a high-upside play if DEANGELO WILLIAMS is out, but he would need the Panthers to keep this game close enough that he could get some carries…and anyway, the Panthers still try to limit his touches even when he’s the lead back.
He’s back! DREW BREES has looked very good the last couple weeks, and I do not expect that to change at home against the Panthers. His price makes him a more difficult play, especially considering how close he sits to Rodgers, and there is definitely concern that the Saints could turn this into a blowout and limit Brees to 30 or fewer pass attempts (which does not always turn into 5 TD passes – even if that did happen last week). But hey, if you pay up for Rodgers, you should be expecting a blowout in that one as well. Brees makes for a nice, lower-priced, (probably) lower-owned pivot. KENNY STILLS seems to be here to stay in this new role (he received 6 of Brees’ 27 targets last week; his low snap count can be attributed to game flow), and JIMMY GRAHAM will be extraordinarily highly-owned, given his low price ($6500) on DraftKings, but you still cannot fade him simply based off ownership; he’s a 25-point game waiting to happen. MARK INGRAM is an intriguing play this week, although he may lose a few touches with KHIRY ROBINSON back. If you are guessing Cam chokes yet again, I’d peg Ingram as the preferred play in this one; and if you are guessing the Saints defense will instead be the source of poor performance, Brees and his weapons become the plays to target instead.
Jets at Vikings
Let’s make this one easy: GENO SMITH and CHRIS JOHNSON are not good. CHRIS IVORY (or, at least, his offensive line) is not good enough to use in a game the Jets are likely to be trailing (although, if you were going to use anyone on the Jets, I would say Ivory – against a subpar run defense – would be the way to go). And PERCY HARVIN and ERIC DECKER (poor guys – this is a long way from squaring off against one another in last year’s Super Bowl) cannot be relied on for consistent enough usage (even with a “narrative street” angle taken into account for Percy). Yup. That’s about it.
The Jets pass defense has tightened up a bit in recent weeks, but I still see this as a solid opportunity to go back to the well with CHARLES JOHNSON. The one concern in this game, of course, is that the Vikings could once more get out to a big lead and take the air out of the ball; but because of the stout nature of the Jets run defense (even if they have been wearing down a bit lately), I think we will still see passes deep into the game from TEDDY BRIDGEWATER and company. And while I do not see Bridgewater as a viable play here, I do think he can make Charles Johnson a safe, high-upside option at a price of only $4300. KYLE RUDOLPH is intriguing as well, against a team that cannot cover the TE, but he has not been heavily involved yet since coming back from injury. And even with a couple solid games, GREG JENNINGS does not have the sort of upside I would like to see from a GPP receiver.
Ravens at Dolphins
Because of how good the Dolphins pass rush and coverage are, I expect that the Ravens will make an effort to control this game on the ground – establishing the run and using play-action off of it. Of course, after getting blown up by the lowly Jets run game, the Dolphins will place a heavy emphasis on stopping the run this week, but I still see JUSTIN FORSETT (even at $6900) as a guy worth considering, especially given presumed approach and the fact that the Ravens have the top run blocking unit in the NFL. I do not like JOE FLACCO, STEVE SMITH SR., or TORREY SMITH enough in what should be a low-scoring game without a ton of passing yards, and I certainly do not see anyone on the Ravens as a “must play,” but Forsett is well worth keeping in mind.
Well, that Dolphins-Jets game did not go according to plan, now, did it? The Dolphins will really have no chance of running on the Ravens defense, which will put the ball in RYAN TANNEHILL’s hands once more. I expect a much better showing against a Baltimore defense giving up the second most passing yards in the NFL, although – given the fact that Tannehill’s poor MNF performance is not factored into his price for this week, he is certainly not a jump-off-the-page option. MIKE WALLACE and JARVIS LANDRY are both very much worth considering – and given Tannehill’s deficiencies in throwing the deep ball, Landry and his league-low aDOT have just about the same upside as Wallace. The excellent Baltimore pass rush could create some problems for Tannehill, but he is certainly an intriguing option – and while I cannot see him throwing for 300 yards or topping 2 TDs, this is as good a week as any for him to reach those marks.
Colts at Browns
DANIEL HERRON. Right? Surely, the Colts are going to realize that this guy is better than TRENT RICHARDSON (although…they never quite realized this with Ahmad Bradshaw – something I still somewhat attribute to the Colts trying to limit Bradshaw’s workload, but something worth factoring in nonetheless). And if the Colts do choose to feed Herron the rock, he could be in for a big game against Cleveland’s poor run D. I do not envision this game being a blowout, especially with how good the Browns secondary is – and while ANDREW LUCK will surely still have a good game, this is probably not the matchup in which to use him, given his price. A T.Y. HILTON versus Joe Haden matchup definitely intrigues me, especially considering the trouble Haden has against Antonio Brown (about the closest comparison we have to Hilton). With the price on Hilton, however, he would be tough to use in this matchup, and with the price jumps on DONTE MONCRIEF and COBY FLEENER, they would be tough to use as well (especially given the likelihood that DWAYNE ALLEN returns this week). REGGIE WAYNE does not have the upside we look for in tournaments, and Trent Richardson is…well, he’s Trent Richardson. This is a game the Colts should win, and the Colts offense should put up points, but I do not see the sort of gaudy numbers you hope to find when paying up for players from a top offense.
There is a lot of fantasy goodness on this side of the ball – especially with Vontae Davis presumably out. If Davis misses, JOSH GORDON becomes one of the premier WR plays this week (the Browns should have to pass to keep up, and the Colts will have no one who can hope to cover him), but do not overlook ISAIAH CROWELL, either (also…if Crowell’s injury turns into something big enough to keep him out of this game, TERRANCE WEST becomes extremely appealing – especially in cash games). It really would not have mattered a whole lot who the Browns chose to roll with at QB this week – either way, the plan would be the same: keep the ball on the ground to exploit the weakness of this defense, and to keep Luck off the field. The Browns already have the third most rushing attempts in the NFL, and that is not going to change when facing a top offense and a poor run defense. The threat of Josh Gordon should force the Colts to stay honest, and will open lanes for the Crow to eat. This could be a big game for him (or for West, if he ends up being the starter). Honestly, I also like BRIAN HOYER at only $5200 this week. As much as the Browns will want to keep the ball on the ground, they will have to start passing in this one to keep up. Hoyer is not as bad as he has shown the last few weeks, and Pettine obviously believes Hoyer still gives them their best chance to win. I will, in fact, go so far as to say Hoyer is a solid cash game option. Oh – and if JORDAN CAMERON (remember him?) does come back, realize that he is minimum-priced(!!!) and the Colts struggle mightily against tight ends. Of course, Cameron is one big hit away from missing another four weeks, but it would certainly not be a bad risk to take.
Buccaneers at Lions
Boy oh boy. On the one hand, targeting MIKE EVANS (or even VINCENT JACKSON) against the weakest part of the Lions D (their corners) is an intriguing idea. On the other hand…will JOSH MCCOWN even have time for a three-step drop? I expect the Bucs to be playing from behind (not like they would be able to run on this defense anyway), and Evans’ price has fallen all the way to $6700 on DraftKings – a steal given his talent and (just as importantly) targets. But McCown has struggled to get anything going against the Bears and the Bengals the last couple weeks; this does not bode well for playing in Detroit, against a top-ranked-in-everything defense. Strongly consider Evans in this one, but also understand that he could very well be held to a disappointing stat line once more.
On the other side of the ball, we have the Lions taking on a Bucs defense that has been much better the last few weeks (in fact, they have graded out positively in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus each of the last three games). The WR position is far too volatile for me to want to pay up for any WR who costs $9500 (CALVIN JOHNSON), and while GOLDEN TATE’s price ($7500) is more appealing, his upside is limited by the presence of Megatron. On Thanksgiving day, MATTHEW STAFFORD topped 20 fantasy points for only the fourth time all season; he could certainly do that again in this contest, although I think there are better bets elsewhere at the QB position. Probably the best play of all this week on the Lions is JOIQUE BELL, who could get 20 or more touches as the Lions run out the clock – and his price did not jump a ton after his strong showing on Thanksgiving ($5500 this week – up from $4700 last week), making him a strong consideration in the mid-price RB range. The Lions should win this game handily, which is beneficial for the clock-killing RB.
Texans at Jaguars
Remember ANDRE JOHNSON? Yeah – he’s still out-targeting DEANDRE HOPKINS (which, frankly, is something akin to a punch-line at this point). The Jaguars are not awful against the pass, and I will certainly not be chasing points from RYAN FITZPATRICK’s career day, but Andre and DeAndre are still very intriguing at their respective prices ($5300 for Andre, $6600 for DeAndre). Andre Johnson has had double-digit targets in four of his last five games, and DeAndre has not been below 8 targets since Week 6. I could see the pendulum finally swinging toward DeAndre this week in targets, but even if that does not happen, he could put up big numbers once more. ARIAN FOSTER is obviously one of the top RB plays this week in a game the Texans should be leading, but his price is prohibitive. That’s about it for this offense.
The Jaguars will probably try to run the ball in order to protect BLAKE BORTLES from the Texans pass rush, but disappointing yardage totals in three consecutive games has left me a bit sour on DENARD ROBINSON. The Texans are somewhat weak against the run, so Robinson is not a bad flier – but considering his price only dropped $400 from last week, I think you can do better (keep in mind, also, that Robinson is not shouldering a full RB load; he has topped 40 snaps only once all season). None of the WRs are trustworthy enough, in my mind, to roll with them – not with Bortles tossing them the rock under pressure. In all, this is not a highly appealing game from a fantasy perspective.
Bills at Broncos
The Bills are projected to score around 20 points. Where are those 20 points coming from? I have no idea. The Broncos defense is solid in all respects, and the Bills offense is not. Your best bet is to hope for some garbage time passing stats against soft coverage – targeting a hopefully-healthy SAMMY WATKINS, an emerging CHRIS HOGAN, or a sometimes-dangerous ROBERT WOODS (KYLE ORTON – revenge game! – is out of the picture, in my mind), but the Bills defense could keep this close enough that there is no real garbage time. SCOTT CHANDLER could be a way-off-the-board pick, given the struggles the Broncos have against tight ends…but really, there is nothing on this side of the ball that I want to target.
It is easy for me to find reasons to fade PEYTON MANNING, given his price tag in this matchup and my dislike for him as a Patriots fan, but truly, Manning is always in play. I would rather pay up for Brees or Rodgers in softer matchups, but Luck/Manning could easily outscore either of those guys, and their ownership will be significantly lower. Given the solid run defense of the Bills and C.J. ANDERSON’s climbing price, I do not see this as a great spot to use him; however, he has proven to be a strong commodity, and I would not blame you for employing him, even in this spot. And of course, either EMMANUEL SANDERS or DEMARYIUS THOMAS could have a big game here; given the price and the matchup, I will surely look elsewhere myself, but Manning will probably top 300 yards and notch a couple TDs, no matter how tough this matchup is, and most of those balls will go to one of these two WRs. JULIUS THOMAS – at a price tag only $1300 below Jimmy Graham – is a no-go for me in this matchup…but, again, with Manning at the helm, anything can happen.
Chiefs at Cardinals
Here we go again – JAMAAL CHARLES faces a top 10 run defense…for the sixth time in the last seven games. His lowest point total in that stretch is 15.9 points (last week against the Broncos), so it’s not really as if you can downgrade the guy because of matchup! Given price, however (as is seemingly the case every week), there are more compelling options. The Chiefs will likely have to attack through the air in order to win this one, but when it comes down to it, the over/under on this game is a pathetic 40.5…and I would probably take the under. I do not see ALEX SMITH or any of his WRs doing enough to make them worthwhile plays. TRAVIS KELCE on the field for 90% of snaps against a team that has trouble covering tight ends is obviously worth considering…but really, that’s about it for options on this side of the ball (unless reports surface this week that DE’ANTHONY THOMAS will see more than the five freaking snaps he saw on Sunday; if he is closer to the 34 snaps he had the week before, he could be a high-upside, far-under-the-radar play).
Even if ANDRE ELLINGTON plays, how can you feel good about using a guy who has a hard time topping 3 yards per carry? The weakness of the Chiefs defense, of course, is on the ground, and given the state of the Cardinals passing “attack,” there is nothing to suggest that DREW STANTON, MICHAEL FLOYD, JOHN BROWN, or LARRY FITZGERALD (who should play this week) are worthwhile plays. This should be a back-and-forth game with very few points and a lot of solid defense. I will be looking elsewhere for fantasy football plays.
Seahawks at Eagles
As they always do, the Seahawks will look to pound the rock and control the game, but the Eagles do have a very solid run defense. There is no real reason to try to fade MARSHAWN LYNCH due to matchup, as he can certainly bust out against this team, but his price ($7700) does not make him terribly appealing against this solid unit. While I could see Marshawn having a solid game, a true blowup game seems extremely unlikely. RUSSELL WILSON at $7700 is actually a very intriguing play, especially if the Eagles are able to take a lead at home and force the Seahawks to call passing plays (I say “call passing plays” instead of saying “pass the ball,” of course, because what we really want is for Russ to drop back, find no one open, and take off with the ball). I do not want to tangle with DOUG BALDWIN or JERMAINE KEARSE (although either could become intriguing if this game becomes a shootout – with Baldwin probably standing out more than Kearse), but running Russ out there without a handcuff is not necessarily a bad idea.
Against the pass, Seattle is 5th-best in yards per attempt, and they are 2nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Against the run, Seattle is 4th-best in yards per attempt, and they are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. Of course, on the other hand, Philadelphia is 5th in both passing yards and rushing yards per game. Schematically, I could see Chip Kelly coming up with something that baffles the Seahawks…but at the same time, it is worth realizing that the Seahawks do not do a lot of fancy stuff on defense. For the most part, they play things straight-up, assuming that their talent is better than the offense’s talent. If the Seahawks players can stick to their assignments, who’s to say they’ll be baffled at all? Because JEREMY MACLIN runs 75% of his routes on the right side of the field (where he will square up with Richard Sherman), he’s easy to stay away from this week. That leaves JORDAN MATTHEWS running 93% of his routes in the slot, against beatable slot corner Jeremy Lane. I am not terribly interested in MARK SANCHEZ or LESEAN MCCOY in this matchup, but Jordan Matthews is definitely intriguing, as the Eagles will still put up yards, and a lot of those yards could very well go through him. Finally, realize that RILEY COOPER – for all his lack of talent – is getting six to seven targets per game. Squaring off against Byron Maxwell, he could very well be worth a salary-relief flier at only $3200 on DraftKings. Maxwell is no scrub, but if Sanchez stays away from Sherman, Cooper could receive one or two more targets than he normally receives.
49ers at Raiders
Quite frankly, this game is largely unappealing on both sides of the ball. While I expect the 49ers to take (and hold) a lead against Harbaugh’s future team, I figure a lot of the action from the 49ers will come on the ground…and I really cannot bring myself to trust FRANK GORE or CARLOS HYDE. If we knew the 49ers were going to take a 20-point lead and let Hyde close out the game while Gore rests, he would be worth a spot on a roster or two, but what indication has COLIN KAEPERNICK given that he is ready to stake his team to a 20-point lead? ANQUAN BOLDIN is the only other intriguing option on this side of the ball, but there are game flow concerns to consider. How much will the 49ers really be passing in this one if they take a big lead early? Just something to think about as you consider Boldin at a price tag of $5900.
There is nothing on the Raiders that appeals to me, as Vegas has them projected around 17 points, and even that may be high. The 49ers do not really have a “weakness” on defense, but they are more effectively attacked on the ground than through the air, making LATAVIUS MURRAY a moderate consideration. But the 49ers are still a Top 10 run defense, and the Raiders grade out on PFF as a bottom-3 run blocking unit. I honestly do not see the Raiders giving Murray more than 12 or 14 carries, and I do not think that will be enough to return value against this very good defense. DEREK CARR and the rest of the passing offense is not under consideration. Basically, the Raiders got their 2014 win already; it’s time to move onto next year.
Patriots at Chargers
The Chargers have become quite bad lately against the pass…and the Patriots will be looking to bounce back on national television from their tough loss to the Packers. I think the Patriots will come out firing the ball – looking to get in a rhythm early and set the tone with lots of passes and some shots downfield. I don’t feel entirely comfortable selecting a pass catcher to target on New England, as Brandon Flowers could very well be matched up on BRANDON LAFELL (Flowers is not a true shutdown corner, but he could certainly limit LaFell’s upside), and the Chargers do a good job defending the tight end, which could slightly limit ROB GRONKOWSKI’s upside. If JULIAN EDELMAN is healthy, he could be in for a big game against Chargers slot corner Marcus Gilchrist, and there is also a chance SHANE VEREEN is heavily involved in this one (although the Pats backfield is as unpredictable as ever at the moment). But even if I cannot accurately select a receiver with whom to pair TOM BRADY, I like Brady a lot – even as a standalone option – given his price, the matchup, and the likelihood that the Patriots put up a lot of points fairly quickly on the road in San Diego.
Even with that ugly TD Revis gave up to Jordy Nelson on Sunday, he has graded out as the top cover corner in the NFL over the last five weeks (PFF) – proving that he is back to his elite, shutdown form. Furthermore, Brandon Browner allowed only two completions in his direction on Sunday (for 17 yards). I think KEENAN ALLEN will have a very difficult time getting open in this one, and none of the other Chargers WRs receive consistent enough attention to be considered. RYAN MATHEWS could also find the sledding to be a bit tough against a quickly-improving Patriots run defense, and if the Chargers fall behind early, Mathews could see less of the field. As for PHILIP RIVERS – he is tempting at his still-depressed price, even in this tough matchup, but there are other options I like more than Rivers considering the lower floor a matchup such as this creates. And, as always, ANTONIO GATES is a strong consideration as a red zone threat, but realize that he will probably need a touchdown in order to reach value, as his after-the-catch abilities at this point in his career are basically nil.
Falcons at Packers
If Tom Brady and the previously-humming Patriots offense could not top 21 points in Lambeau, I do not want to take my chances with the Falcons. The Packers should have no problem taking an early lead, and MATT RYAN will – once more – have to drop back over 40 times. The one thing you could hang your hat on here – if you want to target the Falcons passing game – is a possible letdown by the Packers, but given the quality of the coaching staff and leadership in place on this team, I do not see this happening. JULIO JONES has, of course, seen his price go up after his big game last week, and RODDY WHITE can be quite unpredictable, health-wise, when he takes the field off an injury. I cannot roll with STEVEN JACKSON or any other running back on this team, even though the Falcons will probably attempt to establish the run early, as I believe game flow will get away from them – but if you do have faith in the Falcons passing attack (or in garbage time), I would not blame you for looking to Roddy White at only $6200. I am unlikely to go there myself, but it would not necessarily be an awful play.
AARON RODGERS, of course, is the premier QB play this week, with the big concern being that the Packers could take a big lead early and take the air out of the ball. Because of this concern, I am also extremely intrigued by EDDIE LACY, who is finally getting the touches to match the production he was notching before. In addition to being awful against the pass, the Falcons are awful against the run, and if the Packers get out to a big lead early, the run could become a big part of the game plan for them. This makes Lacy as appealing a play as any RB this week, in my mind, with a high floor and a high ceiling to go with it. As for the WRs…Desmond Trufant could shadow JORDY NELSON, but all this talk lately about Trufant masks the fact that – as good as he is – he is not an elite cornerback in the class of Vontae Davis or Darrelle Revis. At the same time, if you roll with Jordy, realize that you are paying for his proven production more than you are paying for the sort of “opportunity” that makes you feel good about rolling with a WR; in his last six games, he has topped six targets only twice. In fact, over those same six games, RANDALL COBB has topped six targets four times, and Cobb has seven more targets than Jordy during that stretch (and costs $700 less). The touchdown regression finally occurred for Cobb, but it could swing back in his favor soon, as he has not scored in three consecutive weeks and is obviously a preferred red zone target for Rodgers. As for DAVANTE ADAMS? His usage is a bit too “game flow specific” for me to feel great about using him. After all, with Cobb and Jordy likely to be open, I feel it is far less likely Rodgers will bother to look to his talented #3 receiver.
That’s what I have for you this week, my friends. Again: use the comments to let the rest of us know your thoughts on this week’s slate, and to let me know of anything I may have missed or overlooked!
Also, if you are on Twitter, be sure to give me a follow (JMToWin is the handle!). I use Twitter to tweet late-week thoughts and answer lineup questions.
Best of luck this weekend. Now, go out there and win some money!