Week 14 TNF Grind Down: CHI vs. DAL

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-07 02:47:55

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Dallas Cowboys						Chicago Bears
Thu – 8:25 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	51.5	27.5				3.5	51.5	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.2	9	9	5		Offense	21.1	20	11	25
Defense	21.1	20	11	25		Defense	25.2	9	9	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	31	13	26	31		Dallas Cowboys	19	19	8	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	110	67	10	952		Marshall	102	58	8	660
Williams	54	30	6	482		Jeffery	107	67	7	854
Beasley	30	22	1	250		Wilson	9	3	0	21
Witten	65	44	4	469		Bennett	93	65	5	737

Quick Grind

•One of WK 14’s highest Vegas totals & two inferior defenses = plenty of fantasy goodness
•Crucial game for Cowboys playoff hopes
•Target playmakers for both teams
•Squeaky Wheel Alert: Bears RB Matt Forte

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

Key Injury Alert: CHI LB Lance Briggs is OUT

I think the Eagles technically ‘shut down’ Murray last week – but the NFL’s top RB still cracked them for 113 total yards and a TD on a healthy 26 touches. Murray was again Fortesian in the passing game as well, with 6 catches for 40 yards (his 4th 6-catch game of the season). Murray takes his efficient, high-volume game to Chicago this week, and faces a Bears team that was just thumped for 107 total yards and 2 TDs by Detroit’s Joique Bell last week. I often talk about how strong the Bears are in run defense this season compared to their historic badness last year, but I think they’re on the verge of unraveling now that LB Lance Briggs was put on IR. Despite his age, Briggs had graded out as a top-5 4-3 LB against the run, and also brought an unquantifiable boost to the defense as their vocal leader. Of course, you didn’t need any _extra_reason to roster Murray, but hey, knowing the Bears are without their TOP run defender sure makes him even more enticing, doesn’t it? Murray is arguably the top RB in play this week – and rostering him is an excellent reason to play the Thursday slate.

WR Dez Bryant

I honestly didn’t know it was possible for Eagles CB Cary Williams and Co to actually contain a stud WR… but that’s exactly what they did to Dez on Thanksgiving. We’ll move on quickly from that tragedy of a performance, because Dez has an even sweeter Thursday matchup this week against the Bears tattered secondary. You know, the squad that Calvin Johnson ravaged for 146 yards and 2 TDs? Yeah, those guys. Calvin was just the latest in a long line of monstrous WRs to torment the Bears…. as you might remember from last week’s ‘Monstrous WRs vs the Bears’ table, which now has another row of data!:

Don’t you think Dez’s name would fit nicely right under Calvin’s in the table above, with triple digit yards and a TD or 2? So do I. Dez has some massive upside against this ‘secondary’, and is a top-5 WR this week.

QB Tony Romo

Rostering Tony Romo this week is going to be tough for anyone who watched the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The oft-criticized Romo managed just 199 yards and added a pair of INTs in both his worst fantasy performance of the season, and one of the few times a QB hasn’t seen a box score bump from facing the Eagles. Thankfully Romo now faces the Fantasy Elixir known as the Bears ‘pass defense’. Allow me to submit for your approval the game logs of the last 5 QBs to face the Bears:

The Bears surrender massive games to opposing QBs, and aside from Bridgewater, allow most every QB they face at least a solid performance. On the season, the Bears allow the 4th-most FPPG to QBs, and grade out as PFF’s 5th-worst coverage unit. That’s incompetence we can trust. Romo is a high-upside QB this week, but injury limitations keep him from being a must-play.

TE Jason Witten

Witten has been a much more valuable blocker than receiver this season. And in certain weeks (like last week), he’s completely overlooked in the passing game. While it’s hard to trust a TE who is fresh of a 1-8 performance where he saw just TWO targets, Witten does have a strong paper matchup on deck. The Bears allow the MOST FPPG to opposing TEs – though they have limited similarly underutilized TEs in recent weeks (MIN, TB, DET, etc.). Witten doesn’t have a very high ceiling, but he doesn’t come at a high cost, either. He’s a viable salary relief TE this week given his matchup.

WR Terrance Williams

Terrance Williams has sucked for basically the entire second half of the season. His game logs are just depressing. Over the last 3 games, Williams is averaging less than 3 targets per game, and has had less than 20 yards in 2 of his last 3. Williams has theoretical upside due to his big-play ability – but it seems like a distant memory. If there were ever a game for him to flash again, it would be against this horrid Bears secondary, but there are surer upside WRs to play instead this week.

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

Squeaky Wheel Alert!

Forte was the victim of a disastrous Trestman game plan on Thanksgiving, as the Bears COMPLETELY avoided running into the teeth of the Lions elite run defense. The only thing that went right for Forte was his receiving, as he produced exactly the 6-catch, 50+ yard receiving line I projected. Forte’s misuse last week will be our gain this week, though, as the Bears RB was especially critical of the Week 13 game plan and called for a refocused rushing attack. Expect some Squeaky Wheel Treatment this week, just in time for a matchup with an exploitable Cowboys run defense. While the Cowboys don’t appear to be a good matchup in terms of DVP, they still allow 105 rushing yards per game to RBs, and grade out as PFF’s 10th-worst run-defense squad. And check out their run D impotence over the last month:

The foolish will avoid Forte based on his letdown last week – but we know better. With a sneaky matchup and some squeaky wheel treatment on deck, Forte is a top-5 RB play.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Alshon again benefitted from Jay Cutler sincerely not giving a F who was covering him, as he overcame a tough matchup on the outside to produce 9-71-2 vs the Lions on Thanksgiving. The biggest takeaway from Jeffery’s usage last week though was his prominence in the screen game. Even though Jeffery is a bit slow to accelerate, he’s a bear to tackle, and also benefitted from effective outside blocking from his WR peers. The screen game is an excellent complement to Jeffery’s vertical big-play potential, and makes him a viable red-zone threat as well. This week Jeffery’s size and usage should pose a problem to the Cowboys, and CB Brandon Carr in particular, who has been devoured for 18-254-2 by Odell Beckham Jr and Jeremy Maclin in his last two games. Jeffery is a much different type of receiver to those two, but should still rip the Cowboys secondary apart. He’s a top-10 WR this week.

WR Brandon Marshall

Sometimes in DFS you have to acknowledge that there are players you just can’t seem to get right. Marshall has been one of those players for me this season. The mercurial WR had his second straight EXCELLENT slot matchup last week, and responded with his second straight bust. The frustrating part is that at times it looks like he isn’t even trying. When that Marshall shows up, rostering him becomes risky. The Bears season is lost, the offense has been struggling, and Marshall has clearly been frustrated by both it and his recurring injuries. Coupled with his matchup with the Cowboys top DB, it seems like a good week to fade Marshall. Which of course means he’ll go berserk instead. There’s no doubt Marshall is a weekly top-10 option based on talent and opportunity, but he’s simply too risky to trust outside tournaments where you don’t take Jeffery instead.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett was the unquestioned top TE of the Thanksgiving slate last week – and he acted like it, ripping the Lions for 8-109 on 11 targets. A matchup with the Cowboys inept TE coverage – they allow the 2nd-most FPPG to TEs – should mean another strong outing from Bennett. If you aren’t paying up for Gronk or Graham, Bennett is a strong alternative.

QB Jay Cutler

Bears HC Marc Trestman game planned like he was playing Madden instead of a real NFL game last week – abandoning any semblance of a balanced attack and dialing up a ridiculous 48 passes (compared to just 8 rushes) for his risk-taking gunslinger of a QB. And as he does basically every week, Cutler put together some strong drives, stacked up 280 yards and 2 TDs… and another 2 backbreaking INTs. At this point, Cutler’s main role in DFS is just to maintain the value of his weapons – he’s entirely too volatile to trust. With elite QB options above his salary and punt/matchup plays below, I would only use Cutler as part of a contrarian tournament stack this week.