Week 15: In Which We Look At Lyrics
One of these things is not like the others. See if you can spot it:
1.
Living is easy with eyes closed
Misunderstanding all you see
It’s getting hard to be someone, but it all works out
It doesn’t matter much to me
2.
Oh, a storm is threatening
My very life today
If I don’t get some shelter
Oh yeah, I’m gonna fade away
War, children, it’s just a shot away
3.
Been dazed and confused for so long it’s not true
Wanted a woman, never bargained for you
Lots of people talking, few of them know
Soul of a woman was created below
(This is going somewhere, I promise! – hang with me just another moment…)
4.
Forgive me, Lord, please, those years when I ignored you
Forgive them, Lord, those that feel they can’t afford you
Help me, Lord, please, to rise above this dealing
Help me, Lord, please, to love you with more feeling
5.
Every song’s like, Gold teeth, Grey Goose, trippin’ in the bathroom
Bloodstains, ball gowns, trashin’ the hotel room
We don’t care, we’re driving Cadillacs in our dreams
Did you catch it? Did you spot the one that was not like the others?
If not, I’ll give you another chance. Ready?
One of these things is not like the others. See if you can spot it:
1. John Lennon
2. Mick Jagger & Keith Richards
3. Jimmy Page
4. George Harrison
5. Lorde
Yeah.
Usually, when I work on my daily fantasy teams and write this article (which I typically do in conjunction), I listen to the sort of music that…well, frankly, the sort of music that you would not be embarrassed to say you were listening to while writing an article such as this: The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin, George Harrison, etc.
Today, however, I am listening to Lorde.
Now, on the one hand, I could try to justify this. I could point out that the tremendous production values and the catchy beats make Lorde what an old roommate of mine (who, incidentally, hated me) described Beyonce’s music as: An ice cream cone – a delicious treat, but one with no nutritional value. I could place Lorde’s music in the same category and point out that, hey, sometimes the mood is simply right for an ice cream cone.
Or, I could point to the imagery in Lorde’s lyrics and try to convince you that, truly, she is an impressive songwriter at times, especially for someone so young. Take, for example, this:
We’re never done with killing time
Can I kill it with you
Till the veins run red and blue?
We come around here all the time
Got a lot to not do
Can I kill it with you?
Or, another example, this:
I remember when your head caught flame
It kissed your scalp and caressed your brain
Well, you laughed, “Baby, it’s okay
It’s buzz cut season anyway”
No, I know – it’s no Bob Dylan. It’s no Jimi Hendrix. It’s no Paul McCartney. (It may not even be Rick Astley! Oh, wait…no, sorry – that was just my way of Rick Rolling you.) But hey – that’s still pretty good.
I could tell you all that. I could try to justify the fact that I am presently jamming out to Lorde – but let’s be honest: I probably won’t convince you. And that’s fine. Really, it is.
And you know what else is fine? It’s fine that I am listening to this as I write this article. It’s fine that these are the lyrics I am hearing as I type this (laid over a thumping bass beat)…
There’s a humming in the restless summer air
And we’re slipping off the course that we prepared
But in all chaos there is calculation
Dropping glasses just to hear them break
Why is it okay? Quite simply, because there is no “one right way.” You can listen to what you want to listen to – as long as it works. You can read what you want to read, watch what you want to watch, and do what you want to do – as long as it works.
And you can build a daily fantasy football team however you want to build a daily fantasy football team – as long as it works.
Of course, that qualifying statement is important in regards to daily fantasy football. After all, “as long as it works” – when said in regards to music, books, movies, etc. – acknowledges that each of us has different preferences. What “works for you” may not “work for someone else” – and that is absolutely fine.
In regards to daily fantasy football, however, something “works” only if it yields results. Right? That’s important to point out.
And yet, the fact still stands: there are different approaches you can take in order to reach results that work!
This week – with the pricing on DK becoming relatively soft once more, and with so many intriguing fantasy matchups on the board – I see a handful of distinct approaches one could take to roster construction…and there is a very good chance that all of these approaches will work!
As such, this week, I am going to use this space to take a closer look at the three distinct approaches I see (the three distinct approaches I will be taking myself) – digging into my thoughts on some of the main players that could make up a roster with each distinct approach.
As dedicated readers know: I usually create one or two “Optimal Teams” that I enter into every tourney – including the high-dollar tourneys – and I then add another three or four teams that I throw into some lower-buy-in tourneys. Every once in a while, however, I take an opportunity to throw some extra darts at the board. (A side note: this last week was one of those in which I chose to throw extra darts at the board. I went ahead and entered 50 teams in the Sunday Million Special. I had Eddie Lacy on 70% of my teams. I had Julio Jones on 40% of my teams. And 50% of my teams had either Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, or Matt Ryan at QB. And yet, I only managed to cash with 32% of my teams. Yeah. That shows how bad the rest of the players on my teams were. Ouch! The worst part? I left the jbeach in Atlantis an hour and a half before rosters locked to see if Rashad Jennings was active. Upon seeing he was, I took Andre Williams off 33 of the 35 teams on which I had him…largely replacing him with Bishop Sankey and – wait for it – Antonio Andrews. “Who the heck is Antonio Andrews?” you ask. He’s the #4 RB on the Titans, and with Shonn Greene inactive, I thought he was going to be what Kerwynn Williams ended up being on Sunday – the dude who came from nowhere to get all the carries and put up a big day while being owned by no one. Anyhow, that’s my sad story. I still managed to finish 78th out of 51,000 entrants in that tourney with one of my teams…but if not for my changes (yeah – I also swapped Jared Cook off a bunch of teams on Sunday morning, in favor of Jordan Cameron), I am pretty sure I had a team that would have finished in 3rd place, and I know I would have had several teams in the top 50. Suffice it to say: I wish I had simply stayed outside and continued enjoying the sun that morning!) Anyhow – I am using this week (the last week of the Millionaire Maker) to throw some extra darts at the board once more. On these teams, I will be mixing and matching the following approaches – using the following players!
Are there approaches besides the ones below that are also in play this week? Undoubtedly! But as these are the three approaches that stand out to me, I am going to attempt to give you a leg up with a closer look at the ways in which I see these approaches coming together.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here is my look at the lyrics that could lead to a hit for you this week.
Quarterback:
I am leaving this out of the “approaches you can take,” and am instead breaking down this position individually. The reason? I am only using one QB this week – across all 40 of the teams I am entering. See if you can spot which QB it is! There are, however, several QBs strongly in play this weekend, so I’ll take a look at a few of them:
DREW BREES $8400 v Bears
Given the state of the Saints, and the urgency surrounding the team – and given the leadership in place on this team – I am expecting a huge bounce-back from the Saints this next Monday. Yes, I know, it’s on the road. Yes, I know, weather may play a small part in the game. And I know I have recommended Brees plenty of times this year on “the wrong weeks.” But unless there is something physically wrong with Brees (and I do not think there is), this should be a big game for him.
BEN ROETHLISBERGER $7900 v Falcons
Roethlisberger has been much better at home this year, but the Falcons are unlikely to create much resistance regardless of where this game is being played. Roethlisberger has the fourth highest fantasy points per game on DraftKings this year, and while that is aided by his back-to-back 6 touchdown games, it also speaks to his ceiling. Against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, Roethlisberger is a good bet to put up a strong game this week.
JAY CUTLER $7500 v Saints
If you think Brees is going to have a good game, there is a very good chance Cutler has a similarly good game – at a lower cost. After all: If Brees is putting up points, Cutler will have to do the same, and the Saints defense is unlikely to provide much resistance (no matter how hard they are working this week to turn things around!). This game has one of the highest over/unders of the week, and the spread is only 3 points – which means it is expected to be a close, back-and-forth game. If you are considering Brees, you need to consider Cutler as well.
MATT RYAN $6600 v Steelers
Do you see a pattern? Here we have yet another game projected to be both close and high-scoring, with a pair of prolific offenses and extremely poor defenses. If this game were in Pittsburgh, it would be much more difficult to give a strong vote of confidence to the Falcons O (even with what they did in the second half in Green Bay), but with the game being played in Atlanta, the Falcons have a good shot at going punch for punch with the Steelers – giving Ryan just as high of a ceiling as Roethlisberger.
DEREK ANDERSON $5000 v Buccaneers
Derek Anderson gets a second start on the year…against the same team he had his first start against. In that game, Anderson put up 18.2 fantasy points on the road, and he could easily duplicate that at home in Week 15. Now, it is worth noting that the Bucs have improved recently (before a hiccup last week against the Lions), and it is no guarantee that Anderson shreds the Bucs pass D…but at a mere $5k, against what has been one of the worst pass defenses on the season, he is an extremely intriguing option, and he opens up a ton of roster flexibility elsewhere!
APPROACH 1: PAY UP AT RB, PAY DOWN AT WR
JAMAAL CHARLES $8700 v Raiders
The hope is that Charles is underutilized in daily fantasy based on his high price and his mediocre game against the Raiders last time around (and by “mediocre,” I mean “he scored over 22 points, and people were still disappointed). Charles has faced an absolute murderer’s row of run defenses over the last couple months, and he has held his own against (and, in some cases, absolutely shredded) all of them. Yes, Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, and even Arian Foster are all excellent plays given their respective talent, matchup, and opportunity, but do not overlook Charles at a discount on all of them, in what is perhaps the best matchup of the bunch to boot.
C.J. ANDERSON $7800 v Chargers
Keep an eye on practice reports this week – but if C.J. is starting and deemed mostly-healthy (which is expected to be the case), he should be in for the lion’s share of the carries/catches again. Anderson has proven that – at least in Peyton Manning’s offense – the matchup doesn’t matter…and it is not as if this matchup is particularly difficult anyway, as the Chargers are pretty much middle of the road against the run by all metrics (and they have a tough time keeping RBs in check in the passing game – another bonus for C.J.). Any back who has a chance to get 25+ touches is well worth considering, and Anderson has the talent to pay off this price with that sort of workload.
JUSTIN FORSETT $7400 v Jaguars
After three straight games of 20 or more touches, Forsett dipped to 15 last week. In a game in which I expect the Ravens to lead comfortably for a large chunk, I expect the usage to go back up again. The Jags have a below-average run D and the Ravens grade out on Pro Football Focus as the top run-blocking unit in the NFL. Pair that with a likely game-long lead from the Ravens, and you have a recipe for fantasy goodness.
DONTE MONCRIEF $4000 v Texans
It appears, as of this writing, that the Colts are not planning to rest Reggie Wayne this week, in spite of his injuries and recent ineffectiveness. That’s too bad. Even if that remains the case, however, Moncrief played 50 snaps last week to Hakeem Nicks’ 18 – signaling that Moncrief has finally passed Nicks on the depth chart. And while it hurts that he keeps seeing exactly 4 targets per game, any week could be “the week” in which Moncrief blows up again – especially if the targets begin to rise. At only $4k, you do not risk a ton by slotting him in your lineup, and his upside is immense.
MARQISE LEE $3600 v Ravens
Lee has emerged in recent weeks as a favorite target of Blake Bortles…and more importantly, he has started to indicate that he could be yet another name from this rookie class to pay attention to. He has averaged six targets per game over the last three weeks, and with the Ravens secondary in shambles (they just signed Antoine Cason, for heaven’s sake! – the same Antoine Cason who was getting absolutely embarrassed week in and week out with the Panthers for much of this season), this could be a great game for Lee to really pop off. At only $3.6k, it’s a worthwhile gamble – especially for the salary space it opens.
MARQUESS WILSON $3000 v Saints
On about half the teams in the NFL, Marquess Wilson would already be a well-known name. After dealing with a collarbone issue for much of the season, however – then being buried behind Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall – Wilson is just now getting his chance to shine. He’s the type of big, athletic WR that both Trestman and Cutler love, and he should be getting about 80% of the snaps this week with Marshall out. Remember when I said I expect this to be a shootout? Well, that means there is every chance Wilson is one of the guys who benefits greatly…and he costs the minimum salary.
APPROACH 2: PAY DOWN AT RB, PAY UP AT WR
LATAVIUS MURRAY $4000 v Chiefs
Well, I was certainly wrong last week. I said in my game-by-game writeup last week that I did not expect Latavius to receive more than 12 or 14 carries. That seemed to be the Raiders way. After I wrote that, my feelings seemed to be confirmed when the Raiders said they were not going to use Latavius as a workhorse. And then…they proceeded to give him 54 snaps and 23 carries. The Raiders are unpredictable, and they could easily decide it is necessary to mix in Darren McFadden and the ghost of MJD…but if Latavius gets 23 carries once more, he could shred this run defense (again!).
STEVEN JACKSON $3800 v Steelers
Yeah, it’s the Steven Jackson you’re thinking of. No, I’m not running a fever. Here are Steven Jackson’s touches over the last six weeks: 18, 18, 15, 19, 18, 18. It’s not easy to find a running back getting that sort of usage at only $3.8k. It’s also not easy to find a running back getting that sort of usage, at a price of only $3.8k, facing a sub-average run D. And while I do not expect a massive game from S-Jax, he could quadruple this salary with ease.
CHRIS JOHNSON $3600 v Titans
Yeah, it’s the Chris Johnson you’re thinking of. No, I’m not dizzy and in need of a visit to the hospital. The artist formerly known as “2K” has seen his price drop to about as close to $2k as you can get, and over the last two weeks, he has averaged 17 touches per game. This week, he is facing his former team, and Rex Ryan is exactly the kind of coach who would designate as “captains” the six players he had drafted in exchange for the draft pick that landed RGIII. In other words: I expect Rex to give CJ0K a chance to have a big game against his former team…and considering his former team is currently the most disastrous run defense in football, and CJ costs only $3.6k, this is a good thing. (Note: I also like Chris Ivory as a smarter/safer/non-narrative-driven play at $4.2k – but I’ll be using a lot more CJ than Ivory myself, because I think the usage will be there and the narrative is real.)
ANTONIO BROWN $8700 v Falcons
It’s Antonio Brown, against the Falcons. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
ODELL BECKHAM $8400 v Redskins
It’s Odell Beckham, against the Redskins. Sometimes…sorry, am I just getting lazy? Look, the Redskins have a solid run defense and an awful pass defense. ODB is tremendous. He’s also getting a ridiculous number of targets. Eli loves him. ODB has the ability to explode against this secondary.
JULIO JONES $7800 v Steelers
If Julio ends up missing this game, I also like Roddy White and Harry Douglas in this one (in fact, if Roddy’s ankle continues to be a problem, Douglas could be in for a huge game). But assuming Julio plays, it would be tough to go wrong here. And no – this is not “chasing points.” Instead, it is taking advantage of a tremendous matchup, and of a price that has not yet gone back up to where it should be. (Along those same lines – and at this same price – I also like Jordy Nelson against the Bills quite a bit.)
APPROACH 3: MID-PAY AT RB AND WR
LESEAN MCCOY $6600 v Cowboys
The price on McCoy is exciting to me. The lack of excitement others seem to be showing in McCoy this week is even more exciting to me! Last week, against a great run defense, a couple days after his cousin had passed away (and in a game in which he admitted he had a difficult time getting mentally focused because of what had happened in his family), McCoy had a poor game. McCoy is also a premier running back, and will want to come back out with a vengeance in this important divisional tilt. At a price of $6600? It’s almost too good to be true.
JOIQUE BELL $5900 v Vikings
It does require a bit of a leap of faith to believe the Lions will keep giving Bell the 20+ touches he has received the last three weeks…but if he does receive 20+ touches again, he can do significant damage against this Vikings defense that is vulnerable on the ground. Given the Vikings strength against the pass and susceptibility to the run, I expect the Lions to attack on the ground early. Then, I expect them to have a lead and to keep attacking on the ground. All of this should lead to another 20-touch game for Bell, and to another great fantasy outing as a result – all at a bargain of a price.
ALFRED MORRIS $5000 v Giants
Roy Helu is likely to miss this game, and the Giants are very vulnerable on the ground. In his last game against the Giants – back in Week 4, before Jon Beason got hurt and the Giants run D went in the tank (and without the running threat of RGIII at QB) – Alf notched 18 fantasy points. I could easily see a similar (or even better) fantasy outing coming from him this week – and his price of $5k makes him an extremely appealing option.
MIKE EVANS $6600 v Panthers
“Hi, my name is Mike Evans. I scored 20.5 fantasy points last week against the top defense in football, and I am averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game on the season. I have a game this year of 42.9 points and another game of 34.4. I’m a true game changer, and this week I face one of the worst pass defenses in football. Somehow, after my 20.5 point performance last week, my price dropped $100. I don’t pretend to have any clue what dictates DraftKings’ algorithm, but who cares, right? Just know that I’m a bargain, and that you need to seriously consider fitting me onto your rosters this week.”
JEREMY MACLIN $6100 v Cowboys
“Hi, my name is Jeremy Maclin. This week, I am facing a team that I torched for eight catches and 108 yards just a couple weeks ago. On the season, I am averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game – good for 8th in the entire NFL – yet, somehow, there are 17 wide receivers priced higher than me this week on DraftKings. People seem to think my new QB doesn’t like throwing to me, but before I was blanketed by Richard Sherman last week, I was averaging 9.7 targets per game over the previous three games. And anyway, I saw 6 targets against the Seahawks, and we only threw 20 passes, because we didn’t have the ball at all. That’s good for an elite 30% rate. All of this boils down to: give me serious consideration on DraftKings this week.”
RODDY WHITE $5800 v Steelers
As mentioned above with Julio: Roddy is an elite play if his ankle seems to be 80% or better, and if Julio is out. Even if Julio plays, however, Roddy could easily put up 20 or more fantasy points in what should be a high-scoring affair. Keep a close eye this week on Falcons practice reports, and react accordingly.
APPROACH “bonus”
You could also, of course, mix and match the approaches above! You could pay up at one RB spot and pay down at another. You could pay up for a WR, pay down for another, and “mid-pay” for another. You could mix and match the players listed above in a variety of ways…or, you could avoid the players listed above altogether and go with the guys who stand out to you! I certainly have a few teams with this “bonus approach” – although, honestly, Approaches 1, 2, and 3 are employed on the majority of my teams this week.
BUT, JM, WHAT ABOUT TIGHT ENDS?
I am only using one tight end this week. In my mind, there is only one tight end to use:
Jimmy Graham, at $6300.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But I genuinely see no reason to mention any tight end this week but Jimmy – at an absurdly low price, in an absurdly good matchup, on a week in which the Saints are doing everything they can to turn things around.
Before I leave you, here is one final test:
One of these Twitter handles is not like the others:
1. JMToWin
2. JMToWin
3. JMToWin
4. JMToWin
5. IreallydonotparticularlycareforJMToWin
If you guessed correctly (and do not feel that someone should have that fifth Twitter handle as their own), feel free to join me on Twitter, where I typically tweet late-week thoughts and answer late-week questions.
Best of luck this weekend!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to turn off Lorde. And eat an ice cream cone.