Week 15 TNF Grind Down - STL vs. ARI

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-14 00:02:33

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Arizona Cardinals						St. Louis Rams
Thu – 8:25 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	39.5	17.5				-4.5	39.5	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.2	21	15	29		Offense	21.9	17	24	16
Defense	21.9	17	24	16		Defense	21.2	21	15	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	12	9	23	6		Arizona Cardinals	10	4	17	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	78	50	2	692		Britt	59	30	3	542
Floyd	76	35	4	592		Austin	37	27	0	197
Brown	80	39	5	569		Bailey	31	22	1	322
Carlson	49	29	1	318		Cook	76	41	3	534

Quick Grind

•This game is the perfect example of a full Thursday FADE
•Both offenses greatly overmatched by the opposing defense

Note: This is possibly the least DFS-friendly Thursday night game of the season. If you’re playing Thursday slates, consider fading the entire game.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals RBs

RB Kerwynn Williams

It’s that time of year where injuries and lost seasons thrust new players into starting roles each week – and that means the #GrindDown is going to have more names you’ve never heard of before. Like Kerwynn Williams, for example.
Last week Kerwynn became the answer to the trivia question: ‘who is the only Cardinals RB to rush for 100 or more yards this season?’ That’s right, it wasn’t the playmaking Andre Ellington, it wasn’t last week’s starter Stepfan Taylor – it was Williams who cracked the century mark and now owns the season-high rushing total for Cardinals RBs. Unfortunately even with Andre Ellington out for the year, we can’t simply anoint Williams the Cardinals top RB. Bruce Arians never makes it that easy. Arians is up to his usual Arians BS this week and has declared the Cardinals RB situation will be decided by the dreaded ‘hot hand’. Commonly also referred to in DFS as ‘stay the hell away from this backfield’. It looks like Stepfan Taylor will start again this week, with both Williams and RB Marion Grice in play as well. Taylor ‘starting’ is kind of like Trent Richardson ‘starting’ for the Colts though: it’s just a title, and Taylor seems likely to again be out-touched and out-played by Williams this week.

Unfortunately the uncertainty of Williams’ carries this week is made worse by a tough matchup with the resurgent Rams defense. They’ve got stud DE Chris Long back, and have been clamping down on both the run and pass. On the season, the Rams grade out as Pro Football Focus’s 10th-best run defense squad, and they allow the 8th-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. The Cardinals had been a horrid run-blocking team prior to last week, and now face this dominant defensive line with a possible timeshare of RBs… It’s not a recipe for success. If you must take a Cardinals RB this week, it’s Williams you want. He provides the most upside, and most people won’t even have a clue who he is. Williams also offers substantial salary savings, but the risk of the matchup and the ‘hot hand’ backfield mean you should only be using him in tournaments this week.

The Cardinals WRs

Weekly Reminder: Drew Stanton is a horrible quarterback.

The Cardinals passing attack is essentially hamstrung from the get-go with Stanton at the helm. But despite his inaccuracy, Stanton still slings it often (especially compared to other limited passers like Geno Smith), and the Cardinals haven’t abandoned their vertical risk-taking, either. This mix means we can’t expect much consistency with the Cardinals WRs, but they can be tournament targets on the merit of big-play potential. Michael Floyd is the top Cardinals WR to target in tournaments, and is coming off a 4-85 showing against the Chiefs. The closest cash game target is Larry Fitzgerald, who returned from injury last week and had a team-high 9 targets. Either WR would appear to have a favorable matchup this week, given that the Rams have allowed the 7th-most FPPG to opposing WRs. However, with their pass-rush dominating, and a healthy secondary, the Rams have done a good job limiting below-average passing attacks in recent weeks (OAK, WSH). With Stanton at QB, the Cardinals certainly qualify. The Cardinals WRs are risky bets as usual this week.

St. Louis Rams

RB Tre Mason

Everyone’s favorite Week 13 RB predictably returned to earth last week. Mason cranked out 20 carries for the 2nd time in his last 4 games, but turned them into just 66 yards on the ground. The offensive line was the culprit as usual. This week Mason may not find much more room against the Cardinals, who grade out as a top-12 run-defense squad on PFF. Even after Jamaal Charles cracked them open for 111 yards and 2 TDs on just 12 touches last week, the Cardinals still allow the FEWEST FPPG and just 66.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. Not a great situation for Mr Mason. I love Mason’s talent, but he’ll be unnecessarily high-owned due to the Thursday factor, and doesn’t offer ‘can’t miss’ upside in this matchup.

Shaun Hill’s Old-Man Arm and the Theoretically Scary Rams Passing Attack

In some ways Shaun Hill is the opposite of Drew Stanton. He has limited arm talent. But he can also at least run an offense, and deliver throws within the same zip code as his receivers. His traits mean he supports the value of his receivers differently than does Stanton – whereas Stanton and the Cardinals scheme allow for semi-regular big-play upside because of downfield shots, Shaun Hill’s lack of arm strength and lack of throws overall limits his WRs upside. That said, Hill has been taking a few deep shots to Kenny Britt (more on that in a sec) lately, but his arm strength limitations have often been the difference between monster TDs and just chunk plays/PI calls. Tavon Austin’s usage adds another interesting wrinkle, but at the same time limits the opportunities for the Rams WRs we might actually use. The Rams passing attack wants to be dynamic, but they don’t have the QB play to make it happen. Just something to keep in mind.

TE Jared Cook

Cook is arguably the top matchup play in this game. Coming off his best game of the season, a 4-61-2 Jared Cook classic, we should probably assume that Cook will now lumber back into hibernation for the rest of the season. But this is the Cardinals we’re talking about. They’re allowing the 11th-most FPPG to TEs. They gave up 2-84-1 to Cook on just 3 targets back in Week 10. And they still flinch when they hear Cook’s name based on what he did to them last season. If you’re planning on avoiding Gronk/Graham at TE this week, you might get a jump on the competition by taking Cook as a punt option in this game.

WR Stedman Bailey

The theoretical high-floor Rams WR is Stedman Bailey. If this were a Sunday game few would be on Bailey thanks to the 2-47 egg he laid last week, but the Rams as a whole just didn’t need to pass in their stomp of the Redskins. This week should be different. As I’ve written in past weeks, Bailey isn’t a prototype talent like teammate Kenny Britt but he does have an intriguing skillset that helps him win on short and intermediate routes; that should lead to high-floor viability in DFS. The other factor working in Bailey’s favor is that Cardinals starting CB Antonio Cromartie is day-to-day with an ankle injury. If you could have only one Rams player, and even only one player from this entire game, I would choose Stedman Bailey.

WR Kenny Britt

On the other side of the WR spectrum is Kenny Britt. Britt has Jared Cook-ian explosive game potential, but also has demonstrated the same Jared Cook-ian ability to go into hibernation for several weeks in a row. Just check out Britt’s game logs after his 4-128-1 blasting of the Broncos in Week 11:

Pretty uninspiring. But here’s the thing: Britt has been getting targeted deep downfield. It seems like the Rams have no problem dialing up the YOLO Britt Bombs even with Shaun Hill’s limited arm strength (that has turned easy TDs into chunk plays, PI calls, or just incompletions). There’s no doubt Britt is the riskier of the two viable Rams WRs, but he also has the higher upside.

WR Tavon Austin

Pairing Austin with the Rams Defense gives us the rare Returner/Defense correlation play: if Austin brings a kick back, you’ll be able to ‘double-dip’ the TD points by rostering both him and the Rams DST. The added benefit here is that the Rams are in one of their ‘get the ball in Tavon Austin’s hands’ moods. The tiny draft bust had 7 touches for 58 total yards last week. It’s a VERY risky play, but with the Rams Defense already a solid option Austin becomes less weird in a tournament.