Week 17: In Which Some People Don’t Want To Work
It’s the Holidays. I’m sitting in an old, colonial-style house in New Hampshire, surrounded by family, fresh snow, and acres of land.
Yesterday, we went skiing.
This morning, we played in the snow (sledding, snowball fights, snowmen, etc.).
Tonight, we’re having a big dinner and watching Christmas movies.
The one thing I do not feel like doing right now, naturally, is working…you know, like sitting in this upstairs bedroom and typing this article as the voices of my family drift up through the floor. I understand Rex Grossman’s decision to turn down the Browns and stay home with his family this week; who wants to work at a time like this!
At the end of this article, you can judge whether or not it was as good as normal. You can tell me, if you’d like, whether or not the article was up to snuff.
Before you make that decision, I will say this: Whenever I commit to doing something, I aim to do my best. I am writing this article with every intention of making it as good as I can make it. But there is a chance that a percentage of my attention has been left downstairs with my family, and that – in spite of my best intentions – this article will not quite be as excellent as I always aim to ensure that it is. There is a chance that I will be like an NFL player in Week 17 who has nothing left to play for, and has therefore turned his attention to the beach vacation he will be taking next week to give his body and mind some rest at last after six grueling months of work.
You see where this is going?
Week 17 of the NFL season is always a bit weird. Some teams have already locked up a playoff spot but cannot really do anything to improve (or worsen) their playoff position. Other teams are out of the race completely. And, of course, other teams are in what are essentially pre-playoff games – which can cause previously-poor defenses to tighten up, or can cause some elite players to excel while other elite players fold under the pressure.
Now, from the outside perspective all of us have, it is impossible to predict with 100% certainty which teams will rest players and which playoff-eliminated players will play with half their mind on their postseason vacation. What we can understand, however, is that one of the best things we can do in daily fantasy sports is eliminate as much uncertainty as possible. We can understand which teams have their minds fully on their games, and which teams may be at risk of resting players or playing with less than 100% focus.
This week, I am going to go game-by-game once more, but with less of a focus on “matchups,” and more of a focus on the manner in which I see teams (and players) approaching the games. As such, I am separating things more fully into “team by team,” and am largely ignoring teams I feel are too risky to use. Realize, of course, that my thoughts are not the be all and end all of what you should be doing yourself; this is simply my opinion on the players I feel are too risky to use given the way I see this week going.
Most weeks, I write this article on Wednesday, after having spent a large chunk of Monday and Tuesday building teams and getting a solid feel for what I like and dislike that week. Oftentimes, my early-week biases therefore bleed into my game-by-game assessment.
This week (with Wednesday being Christmas Eve, and with Monday having been a ski day and Tuesday morning having been set aside for snow-play), I am writing this article on Tuesday afternoon, with hardly any team-built-biases in my mind. This may, in fact, make this breakdown even more valuable than usual (for both you and myself), as I am writing this without trying to justify – in my own mind – the players I have chosen early in the week to use and to fade. This is, instead, my honest, off-the-cuff assessment of how I see each game playing out, based on not only the matchups, but also based on what these teams have to play for (or not play for).
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro, we congratulate the Patriots on locking up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and we wish all readers of this article Holiday cheer and good luck in this sure-to-be-wacky Week 17. Let’s get to it.
BILLS at Patriots
The Bills have had nine consecutive losing seasons. They have already locked up a non-losing season, but I am sure they would love to gain their first winning season since 2004. With no true QB under center for this team all year, it would be a great testament to the coaching of Doug Marrone and Jim Schwartz, and it would be even sweeter for them to secure that winning season against the Patriots. As such, I imagine this will be a motivated team. I typed all that before realizing it doesn’t really matter. Even if this were a mid-season game, there isn’t anyone on this offense I would care to use against this Patriots defense.
PATRIOTS vs Bills
Bill Belichick never rests players. Unless someone is seriously hurt and could use the extra week of rest, this entire team should be playing. With that said, the Bills pass defense has been tremendous this year, and there may be some players on the Patriots who are less focused and motivated than they should be, now that they have locked up home field advantage. As a Pats fan, I would almost prefer to see a letdown in this game, as this would presumably reinforce for the team that they need to bring their best effort to practice every single day leading up to their playoff game. Maybe my perspective on this game is clouded by that, but in any case, I see this game being very close, with the Patriots either barely winning or barely losing. I do not expect either offense to do a ton of damage.
BROWNS at Ravens
I would love to use JOSH GORDON this week, given his price, but relying on a practice squad QB is always a dangerous proposition – especially when you are talking about a player whose motivation and preparation was called into question even when his team was still in the running for a playoff spot. The Ravens have a tremendous run defense, rendering both ISAIAH CROWELL and TERRANCE WEST uninspiring options, and I do not want to risk a flier on JORDAN CAMERON, as his usage continues to be spotty. In all, this team is tough to get a read on, as their offense has been dysfunctional lately and they will be playing a very motivated team. If the Browns come to play – and if Connor Shaw can get enough time in the pocket to pick apart this pass defense – Josh Gordon could be a huge bargain. If they do not come to play, using Gordon could blow up in your face.
RAVENS vs Browns
JOE FLACCO – come on, man. That was downright bad against the Texans, and I certainly don’t want to bet on him against the number 2 pass defense in football (Football Outsiders DVOA). This takes Ravens pass catchers off the board for me as well. JUSTIN FORSETT is an intriguing option at a suppressed price, in a game the Ravens need to win in order to keep their sputtering playoff hopes alive…but his knee and ankle do not seem to be close to 100%, which makes him a risky play as well. In all, this side of the ball – in spite of the Ravens “must win” situation – is bereft of appealing options.
COWBOYS at Redskins
If the Cowboys win and the Seahawks and Cardinals both lose, the Cowboys will pick up a first-round bye. This is an unlikely scenario, but it should be enough to ensure that the Cowboys come to play, which is good news for both those who want to use the Cowboys (as they are likely to put up points on this defense), and those who want to use the Redskins (as they will be forced to try to keep up). DEMARCO MURRAY is a bit expensive for how good the Redskins run defense is, but TONY ROMO and DEZ BRYANT are both very much in play against this passing defense. There is an outside chance that the Cowboys will still rest players for a chunk of the game, as their shot at a bye is not particularly promising, but if you can stomach the risk, those two core components of this passing offense are worth your attention.
REDSKINS vs Cowboys
The Redskins would love to keep up the late-season momentum they have built, and I fully expect both Gruden and ROBERT GRIFFIN III to be motivated in preparation and play for this game. Against this Cowboys defense (assuming the Redskins can have possession of the ball enough!), this could be a good place for RGIII to have a solid game. Same goes for ALFRED MORRIS against a run defense that is suspect when opponents actually have the ball enough to run. I could also see DESEAN JACKSON or JORDAN REED (remember, the Cowboys are atrocious against tight ends) being valuable in this one. But – of course – all of this comes with the caveat that this team has nothing to play for, and it is Week 17, and there may therefore be some players who are already checked out of this season.
COLTS at Titans
The Colts have nothing to play for this week besides momentum and the potential difference between the 3 seed and the 4 seed. Given the fact that Chuck Pagano has said he will be playing starters, and the fact that the Colts desperately need to get back on track, ANDREW LUCK, T.Y. HILTON, DAN HERRON, and possibly even COBY FLEENER (with DWAYNE ALLEN potentially out) could all be in line for great games against a poor defense. But realize, also, that just because a coach has said his players will be playing the whole game does not necessarily mean this is true. Taking Colts players brings with it the risk that these guys will not be playing a full game.
TITANS vs Colts
This team seems to have checked out of the 2014 season weeks ago. There is no one I want to take against the Colts in Week 17. I guess DELANIE WALKER is in play with CHARLIE WHITEHURST at the helm of the offense and the Colts having trouble against tight ends, but that’s about as far as I could stretch myself to go.
JAGUARS at Texans
Given the trouble the Texans have had shutting down explosive wide receivers, I could see MARQISE LEE being a potentially worthwhile play. That’s about it. The Texans need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and the Jaguars have never fully come around this year the way many of us expected them to. There is no one else on this side of the ball I would be comfortable taking a risk with.
TEXANS vs Jaguars
This is a great spot for using Texans. They need a win, they’re at home, and they’re playing the Jaguars. As a bonus, I’ll tell you I think the Texans defense is a great play this week. I also think the Texans will lean heavily on ARIAN FOSTER with CASE KEENUM still an uninspiring option under center. I could see taking a risk on ANDRE JOHNSON, as Keenum and Johnson have rapport from last year (in fact, I almost switched off Torrey Smith this last week for Johnson – at the same price – and I spent a chunk of the afternoon wishing I had done so, until Torrey caught fire at the end of their game), but given the price drop on Foster and the strong need the Texans have to win this game, I think Foster will be the focal point, and could easily be one of the best plays of the week.
CHARGERS at Chiefs
Here we have another team that needs a win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive (in fact, this is the simplest scenario in the AFC: the Chargers win, and they’re in!). With that said, they are playing the Chiefs. This is not a great spot for PHILIP RIVERS or his beleaguered pass catching corps (DONTRELLE INMAN could be an interesting flier at a very cheap price, but it is still a tough test against the Chiefs), but I do like BRANDEN OLIVER, as he has become far more affordable than he was earlier in the year. If RYAN MATHEWS is out again (and I expect he will be), Oliver will still have to contend with RONNIE BROWN, and DONALD BROWN (heaven help us all) for touches, but I think we could bank on 14 or 15 touches for Oliver, which could be enough for him to put up a big game against this questionable run defense.
CHIEFS vs Chargers
The Chiefs also need a win here, as a win and a bit of help could enable them to sneak into the playoffs. The Chargers are better against the run than they are against the pass, and I think they will sell out to stopping JAMAAL CHARLES. That is not to say I think they will be successful in this aim (and Charles is certainly worth considering at his price), but I do think this means Alex Smith will have to pass some. I’m also going to make a bold prediction: Smith will throw a touchdown to a wide receiver on Sunday! With the Chiefs presumably having to pass, and with the Chargers doing a great job defending tight ends, I could see a big game from ALBERT WILSON (whom I almost used last Sunday on a few teams, but on whom I could not quite bring myself to take the jump!). Wilson has 19 targets over the last three games, and I could easily see another 7 or 8 targets in this one.
JETS at Dolphins
The Jets have nothing to play for besides pride and a win against a division rival. That’s not enough to make me want to take anyone from a dysfunctional offense in DFS.
DOLPHINS vs Jets
The Dolphins have no shot at a playoff spot, but I still expect them to compete as they chase a winning record, and this means (as is always the case against the Jets) that we therefore have to give serious consideration to all the passing game components. RYAN TANNEHILL could finish the season on a strong note in this one, CHARLES CLAY could have another big game against a team that is awful at defending the tight end, JARVIS LANDRY should – as always – have another seven or eight catches (can he finally top 100 yards?), and MIKE WALLACE will remain a red zone threat and an option for a couple missed deep balls from his scattershot QB. I don’t love the Dolphins as an option, given the way things have gone for them lately, but they certainly have to be considered.
BEARS at Vikings
Does JAY CUTLER care? We could very well see Good Jay this week, as he tries to prove himself after his benching. Or we could see Bad Jay (what we could perhaps call “Standard Jay” at this point), as the season is over and he could very well go all “IDGAF.” MATT FORTE is my favorite play from this game against the weakness of this defense, although I am a bit concerned the team may give KA’DEEM CAREY some extra looks to close out the season. And although the Vikings have a stout pass defense, ALSHON JEFFERY and MARQUESS WILSON have to be considered if you give Jay a look. Same goes for MARTELLUS BENNETT, although the Vikings are excellent against tight ends. Basically, it all comes down to whether or not you believe Forte will get a full complement of snaps, and whether or not you feel Cutler will choose to care.
VIKINGS vs Bears
I love TEDDY BRIDGEWATER in this game, and I also love CHARLES JOHNSON. As the Vikings have been out of contention for a while and have continued to play hard and improve, I have faith that Mike Zimmer can keep them focused this week, even though this game means nothing for either team, and this could lead to a very good game for this passing offense against the #29 pass defense (Football Outsiders DVOA) in the NFL. CHASE FORD or KYLE RUDOLPH could be interesting dart throws at TE, and GREG JENNINGS could be an interesting dart throw at WR in spite of his lack of explosiveness, but I certainly like Bridgewater and Johnson the most on this side of the ball.
EAGLES at Giants
I know the Eagles want to close out the season on the right note, but I do fear that there will be a letdown as they are coming off three consecutive losses and have been shockingly eliminated from the playoffs before the start of Week 17 after a 9-3 start to the season. The Giants have been coming to play (having won three in a row as the Eagles have been floundering) – tightening up all aspects of their team. I could therefore see the Giants giving the Eagles offense a tougher test than expected. This makes me scared to use any elements of the passing game, and I could easily see Chip Kelly giving CHRIS POLK more touches at the expense of LESEAN MCCOY in the last week of the season. McCoy is probably the one guy on this side of the ball I really like, but the Giants have been better lately against the run, and McCoy may not get the 20+ touches we are used to seeing.
GIANTS vs Eagles
The Giants have played like a team on a mission lately. Oh – and they have ODELL BECKHAM JR. I still cannot see spending up so much for one player, but Beckham continues to justify his price each and every week. I can certainly see buying a piece of Beckham by investing in ELI MANNING, who could easily have a field day against this passing defense (at a very affordable price), and I would not mind taking a risk on RUEBEN RANDLE, with the assumption that he has finally figured things out. But – as is the case with any teams that are in a completely meaningless Week 17 game – you will be taking a risk by investing in the Giants offense.
SAINTS at Buccaneers
I give up. I can’t figure out this Saints team – and you can’t, either. A few weeks ago, I advised people to stay off the Lions passing attack against the Bucs, citing all the ways in which the Bucs pass defense had been improving. Then, Stafford and Megatron had monster games and made me look bad. After that, I got back on the “recommend passing games against the Bucs” train…only to be shown that the game against the Lions was an aberration. Ouch. In this one, I could see a motivated DREW BREES ripping apart a defense that has become better through coaching but has not gained any more talent than it had earlier in the year…but I could also see the Saints being a massive disappointment in a game in which they surely feel borderline-depressed after having been embarrassingly eliminated from the playoffs. I probably won’t be on anyone in this game, as the Saints have too many weapons to try to predict who will be the best ones to use, and they may come out flat anyway.
BUCCANEERS vs Saints
This is another team that will be difficult to predict. If the Bucs come to play, MIKE EVANS and/or VINCENT JACKSON could be great plays. For that matter, JOSH MCCOWN could be an excellent option at near minimum price. But on the other hand, this team has nothing to play for, and is playing in a meaningless game – a game in which they cannot even play the role of spoiler. It’s risky to try to predict how this game will go, and while the talent of Evans/Jackson could pay big dividends for your team, the putrid state of this offense may cause these picks to blow up in your face.
PANTHERS at Falcons
There we go! In this game, we have an offense that has been coming around, squaring off against one of the worst defenses in football. Now, we saw last week what a poor defense can pull together to do in one of these pre-playoff games, so it is not safe to assume this is automatically a great spot for the Panthers offense. With that said, the Falcons have been one of the worst defenses in football for a large chunk of the year, with very few positive flashes throughout. Outside of Weeks 7 through 10 (when his injuries were at their height, and he was running a lot less as a result), CAM NEWTON has graded out positively in Pro Football Focus’ ratings. This appears to be a great spot for him, along with his receivers. Obviously, KELVIN BENJAMIN is in play, as is GREG OLSEN (although it is certainly worth noting that the Falcons do a good job against tight ends). But in addition to these obvious names, make sure you do not overlook PHILLY BROWN, who has the talent to come up with a huge game and has played 40+ snaps in four consecutive weeks. His target totals in those games have been 4, 5, 6, and 3, but in a game in which Desmond Trufant could very well be assigned to Benjamin, Brown could get up to seven or eight targets and could do plenty with them. Finally, I would say pay very close attention throughout the week to see if any news leaks out regarding the Panthers backfield usage. If DEANGELO WILLIAMS steals carries from JONATHAN STEWART, Stewart could lose a lot of the value he has accumulated over the last four weeks (a span during which he has led the NFL in rushing). But if Stewart somehow is still in line for 20 or more touches, he remains a great value against this poor Falcons run D.
FALCONS vs Panthers
The Panthers have tightened up on defense quite a bit over the last few weeks, finally getting good cornerback play and putting pressure on the QB. With that said, this is an elite offense that is operating at peak efficiency at the moment. With the Falcons playing at home in a must-win game, I could see them stretching this Panthers defense pretty thin. It’s a risk, obviously, as you would be going against recent trends to stack up on players against this defense, but MATT RYAN, JULIO JONES, and RODDY WHITE are all very much in play. I’m not too intrigued by the Falcons backfield, but the passing game is definitely worth considering in what could end up being a fairly high-scoring game.
LIONS at Packers
MATTHEW STAFFORD is about as unpredictable as they come. In this borderline-must-win game (the Lions get a first-round bye with a win…and with a loss, they play in the first round, on the road), the Lions will likely give Stafford some opportunities to break the game open. After being unable to rip apart the Bears secondary, however, it’s tough to believe he will do anything big against the Packers. With that said, past performance is not always indicative of future performance, and this is especially the case for a quarterback like Stafford who has the arm talent and weapons to put up a huge game at any point. This makes CALVIN JOHNSON a potential beast this week, and it also makes GOLDEN TATE an intriguing option. I do not want to try to figure out this backfield, especially as I have no clue what game flow will dictate here, but I would not blame you for taking a shot with JOIQUE BELL or REGGIE BUSH if you think you know how this backfield will be deployed. In all, this game could end up being a high-scoring affair, or it could be a slugfest. I expect it to start out slowly, and for the pace of the scoring to increase as the game goes on.
PACKERS vs Lions
AARON RODGERS, JORDY NELSON, RANDALL COBB, and EDDIE LACY are all great options on any given week – especially in a borderline-must-win game (the Packers are in the same position as the Lions – a win is a first-round bye, a loss is a road game in the first round), but I also see this as being similar to the game last week between the Steelers and Chiefs: the prices of the Packers players are so high because of the high level of production usually found from these guys, but the matchup this week makes it difficult to justify these prices. I’m not saying these guys will have poor games; I’m simply saying it will be difficult – against this defense – for these guys to justify their prices.
RAIDERS at Broncos
The only player who truly intrigues me on the Raiders is the only player who should truly intrigue anyone: LATAVIUS MURRAY. I was skeptical about using Jeremy Hill this last Monday night against the Broncos, as I did not think the losses of Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan would be enough to turn the Broncos from one of the top 2 run defenses in football (Football Outsiders DVOA) into a team we would want to pick on. And honestly, outside of Hill’s 85-yard run, he scraped together only 62 yards on 21 carries (2.95 yards per carry). All that to say: this is a better matchup for Murray than it would have been two weeks ago, but it may still be a very tough matchup. Play him at your own risk, but I am certainly intrigued by him and am toying around with the idea of employing him this week (after all, any running back getting 25+ touches in two of his last three games is worth a good, long look!).
BRONCOS vs Raiders
The Broncos need a win in order to ensure themselves a first-round bye, which is probably the best thing that could have happened to this team, as it will force them to get their offense back on track before the playoffs begin. There is some consideration worth giving to the idea that the Broncos will try to get PEYTON MANNING back in rhythm with an opened-up passing attack, but the likelier scenario is that the Broncos continue to lean on their run game. I am somewhat terrified of relying on C.J. ANDERSON this week, as RONNIE HILLMAN should be back, and we seem to all be forgetting that Hillman was playing quite well himself before his injury. With that said, Anderson should be a Top 5 running back this week if his usage remains as high as it has been, which may make him worth the risk. I do not think Hillman will step in and get 10 or 15 touches…but I would not be surprised if he and JUWAN THOMPSON both got some work in order to bring Anderson’s touches back down to a more reasonable level. I’d have a hard time trusting DEMARYIUS THOMAS or EMMANUEL SANDERS (and JULIUS THOMAS is off the table for me until we see signs that he is truly healthy), as the Broncos are likelier to attack through the air for the most part, but Sanders in particular has seen his price drop enough that he has become a serious consideration.
CARDINALS at 49ers
There is nothing on this offense I want to use. Do I need to type more than that? Will I lose points in your grading of this article for typing so little? Should I tell you the story about my dad breaking his leg on the ski slopes yesterday? No? Okay – then yeah. That’s all that needs to be said here.
49ERS vs Cardinals
There really isn’t much story to tell, honestly. Basically just that my dad wiped out on the last run of the day and fractured his fibula and had two more bones come unattached from his knee cap. When we asked him if he needed to walk down the rest of the mountain, he told us he was fine to ski down. Then he stood up, and his knee bent sideways. It was crazy. He’s now spending Christmas on pain pills before having surgery on Friday. Oh – and yeah. There’s nothing I want to use on this offense against the Cardinals, either.
RAMS at Seahawks
I don’t have any more stories about ski injuries. But I can say that, right about now, I would not use any offense against the Seahawks. Let alone an offense as deficient of firepower as the Rams…in Seattle…when the Seahawks need this win in order to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I think Jeff Fisher will have his team ready to play, but I also do not think it will matter.
SEAHAWKS vs Rams
This St. Louis defense is so difficult to get a read on. I actually like RUSSELL WILSON a decent amount in this game, as he seems to run more in those games in which a pass rush forces him from the pocket (to that end: he had a 7-105-1 rushing line against the Rams in Week 7…good for 19.5 DraftKings points, before even factoring in passing stats). I also like MARSHAWN LYNCH, even though the Rams present a challenge on the ground; I will be surprised if the Seahawks do not lean on Lynch heavily in this one. That’s really the extent of what I like here. This game could be a blowout or it could be close, but either way, the offense will run through those two guys.
BENGALS at Steelers
The Steelers have one of those defenses that seems to be able to tighten up when it really needs to. With that said, this is a game that both teams would very much like to win, as a first-round home game is at stake here (with a first-round bye potentially being within reach for the Bengals, in the unlikely event the Broncos lose early to the Raiders). The Bengals will surely attempt to lean on their run game, making JEREMY HILL and even GIOVANI BERNARD valuable assets, but it is also worth noting that the way to attack the Steelers is through the air. Will ANDY DALTON be a worthwhile fantasy play this week? Probably not. But he’ll have to pass, and that means that A.J. GREEN (if healthy) or MOHAMED SANU (if Green is not healthy) are very much worth consideration. Sanu has fallen off a cliff lately, but he could get involved once more if Green ends up being out. And if Green plays (as is expected), he has the potential for a monster game. Ultimately, Hill and Bernard are the safest plays – as far as reliable talent and usage – but other pieces of this offense could end up paying off this week as well.
STEELERS vs Bengals
When BEN ROETHLISBERGER has been on this year, he has been tremendous. Of course, he’s had some unpredictable dips this season, and the Bengals present a difficult test for quarterbacks (in spite of what Roethlisberger was able to do to them in Week 14) – but at a surprisingly low price, playing at home, Roethlisberger is very much worthy of consideration. In addition to Big Ben, LE’VEON BELL had 21 touches last week…and that was a disappointment. That shows you how reliable he is. In cash games, it’s tough to do much better than Bell – but realize that you need about 35 points from him to justify his salary if you use him in a tournament. ANTONIO BROWN is also a safe, high-upside option, and HEATH MILLER (in spite of having no game-breaking ability) has become a high-floor option in recent weeks (7 or more DraftKings points in five consecutive weeks). As always, I don’t love MARKUS WHEATON or MARTAVIS BRYANT because they split reps and do not have reliable usage, but either could be in line for a big game. Ultimately, I expect this game to be decently low-scoring (something like 24-20), but anything could happen!
Let me know in the comments or on Twitter (JMToWin is the handle – I use Twitter to tweet late-week thoughts and answer questions!) how I did this week! And now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go watch Home Alone 2 with my family.