Week 2, In Which Peyton & I Are Working Through Some Things
What is the opposite of a love affair? No, seriously, it’s not a rhetorical question – I genuinely do not know the answer. What is the opposite of a love affair?
You don’t know, either? Crap.
Well, whatever is the opposite of a love affair, that’s what I have with Peyton Manning. To clarify: it’s a one-way thing. Peyton doesn’t feel the same way about me (at least, I don’t think he does, although maybe he’s secretly really into literature in the offseason and has read and hated my novel and therefore DOES feel the same way about me; if that’s the case, no one in Peyton’s camp has reached out to inform me, so for now we’ll assume it’s a one-way thing). And to clarify further: I respect him as an athlete and think he’s a tremendous (regular season) quarterback – one of the best ever (maybe THE best ever). I just don’t like him. Part of it is the way he parts his hair, I’m sure, and part of it (surely, just a small part…) is, you know, the fact that I grew up just north of Boston and am a lifelong Patriots fan (that whole “who is the better quarterback” argument – an argument that, uh, admittedly feels a bit silly after Week 1, but hopefully we can adjourn until January and have a better counter argument then). But more than anything, these days, the reason I don’t like Peyton is because he ruins fantasy football.
Oh, what’s that? You used both him and Julius Thomas on DraftKings last week and therefore do not think he ruins fantasy football? Good for you. As you may have guessed, I did not.
These days, I see Peyton as the equivalent of stacking players at Coors Field in DFS baseball: it’s just so stinking obvious, you have to look for other players instead to feel any good about what you’re doing. At least, I think that’s why I pretty much used no Broncos this last Sunday…
Oh – this just in: The other reason I pretty much used no Broncos on Sunday might actually be, simply, because I have that whole “whatever is the opposite of a love affair” thing going on with Mr. “Cut That Meat!” himself.
See, here’s the thing: last week, as I sorted through tight ends, I completely skipped over Julius Thomas. I mean that – no exaggeration. I saw Jimmy at $7200. I saw Gronk at $6700. And I jumped right past old Orange Julius at $5800.
You know what’s funny about that? (Funny in an “I cried into a bowl of chocolate ice cream for hours that night” sort of way…) Julius Thomas entered Week 1 with the same ceiling as Graham and Gronk. I dare say, in fact, he had a much higher floor than Gronk as well. And he was priced far lower than them. This more than made him a tremendous DFS play…it made him a practically unavoidable DFS play! It made him exactly the sort of play we are aiming to uncover each week in this article – a guy about whom we can feel very safe that he will reach 3x his price, and a guy with the upside to reach 4x his price and up (as high up, apparently, as that cry-into-my-chocolate-ice-cream-until-the-night-bleeds-into-morning level).
And yet, I skipped right over him because I don’t like the way his quarterback parts his hair.
Every week, we enter the DFS slate with preconceived notions, and one of the most difficult things is letting go of these preconceived notions as we set our rosters. I did not even look at Julius Thomas last week, simply because Peyton Manning annoys me in the same way my neighbor’s four bulldogs (yes, four) that bark all night annoy me.
I also did not use Andrew Hawkins on any of my teams last week, even after suggesting in my article that you use him. Why? Because he only had 15 catches last year and is 5’7” and got his shot at the NFL on Michael Irvin’s reality show. Even though everything was lined up for him to be a low-cost, low-owned target monster (exactly what you want in DFS GPP play!), I talked myself into believing it was a risky pick because “he’s too small and inexperienced to make a major impact.”
For a variety of reasons (what I mean to say is: For a variety of laughable reasons with no foundation in concrete fact or logical thinking), I also had no exposure on my teams to these other players I suggested last week that you use: Andrew Luck, Knowshon Moreno, Donnie Avery, Zach Ertz. All of these guys except Luck more than quadrupled their salaries – and Luck was a Top 3 QB on the week!
My point? As you build your roster each week, let go of your preconceived notions about players, usage, talent, opportunity, and so on (and listen: this goes for the guys you SHOULD be using just as much as it goes for the guys you SHOULD NOT be using! – too often, it is easy to use a guy we have no business using at their price simply because our preconceived notion is that they are surely in for a great game!). It’s time, instead, for you to let the reality of each player’s situation guide you. The question is: Which players are actually in the best position to succeed this week? The question is not: Which players do you think are the best options based on some dream you had about a hot dog turning into that player scoring a touchdown? (Okay…if the dream is that specific, I might listen to it. But otherwise…)
The goal, in this article (as mentioned last week…and as we will probably mention every week, because some of you have something called a “job” and a “life” that occurs between each Friday when this article comes out) is to find players who have a good shot at quadrupling their price (a player who costs $8k, for example, should have a good shot at scoring 32 points). Furthermore, we want to make sure all these players are safe bets to reach 3x their value, even if they fall short of that 4x mark. In building such a team (with a $50k DraftKings budget), we will always be in a position to have a floor of 150, with a ceiling over 200 – thereby giving us a legitimate shot at cashing in (150 points) or winning (200 points) any GPP we enter! Remember: success in daily fantasy sports is not about finding the players who will score the most points; instead, it is about finding the players who will score the most points per dollar spent!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are my picks for this week’s best values by position:
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$8800 – PEYTON MANNING vs Chiefs
Well, now this is awkward. Hi, Peyton. Sorry for saying you ruin fantasy football. I didn’t mean it. (Okay, I did…but I didn’t mean it exactly how it sounded. I just meant…oh, never mind.) Look: Peyton costs $8800 this week. $8800. Don’t ask me why – I don’t have an answer. But Peyton threw for more touchdowns last year than any quarterback in NFL history, and after Week 1 of this season there is no reason to believe much will be different this year…and yet, Peyton costs less than he has in any week since Week 1 of last year, when he was coming off multiple neck surgeries and had been replaced in Indianapolis by a glorious neck beard. Don’t get cute with your lineups this week looking for “great value” at quarterback. Peyton is $8800. That’s your great value.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$8400 – ANDREW LUCK vs Eagles
Hi, neck beard. Nice to see you down here again in the “five more guys” section. Sorry I talked myself out of using you on any rosters last week. Maybe I’ll do better this week. (I will – I promise.) Let me break down the quarterback position in Week 2 like this: the price gap between guys like Peyton and guys like Fitzpatrick (for example) is far too small for it to be worth trying to save money at this position. There are TONS of great values at the lower price points at other positions; instead of trying to find the ultra-low-priced-QB-who-will-go-off-this-week, you will be better served simply asking yourself, “Which QB do I think will have the best game of all the QBs this week?” It is then worth noting that Eagles vs Colts on Monday night has a very good chance of being the highest-scoring game of the week. This means Luck has a chance to be the highest-scoring QB.
$8300 – DREW BREES vs Browns
This is a riskier pick than you might imagine, and it’s not about those “Brett Favre Redux” Wrangler commercials; it’s about the fact that Brees tends to be less impressive away from the Superdome. I put Brees at the top of my list last week anyway, as I have always considered it to be more an issue of how this team plays on turf than an issue of the Saints missing their morning beignets away from New Orleans, but the truth is, Brees’ highest score away from home last year was 26 points. The Browns’ passing D looked shoddy against the Steelers, and Brees still has as high of a ceiling as any QB, but if you roll with Brees, understand that it comes with risk if “the highest score of the week” is what you are chasing.
$8100 – NICK FOLES vs Colts
For Philadelphia fans, the first half of last week’s game was a “boo Santa Claus and throw snowballs at the opposing team” sort of half. The second half was a “boo Santa Claus and throw snowballs at the opposing team while smiling” sort of half. Look, Foles is still Foles. The magic did not wear off during the offseason. In later weeks, we may have concerns about the injuries and absences on the O-line, but the Colts have similar concerns up front on defense, so it shouldn’t be an issue this week. Foles has as good a chance as any QB of being the top scorer this week.
$7900 – AARON RODGERS vs Jets
I cannot recommend Rodgers as Play of the Week, because Peyton’s price is too stinking low to justify using anyone else there. But Rodgers is my favorite play of the week (and I can promise, it has nothing to do with the newest iteration of the State Farm commercials, which make me feel weird when I watch them). The Jets have a stout front 7, but their secondary is suspect, and I expect Rodgers to torch it – especially with a longer week of preparation and the added motivation of having been embarrassed in Week 1 (which is probably not how professional athletes actually think, but it is how I think, so I’ll ascribe that thinking to Rodgers anyway). Best of all, I expect Rodgers to be lower-owned than he should be, as A) he had a poor Week 1, B) people perpetually assume the Jets have a scary defense, and C) other people probably feel weird as well when they watch the new State Farm commercials. Low-owned + potential to be the highest-scoring QB of the week = fantasy goodness.
$7100 – JAKE LOCKER vs Cowboys
This is a tough one. Yes, Jake Locker against the Cowboys at a mere $7100 is a steal. If this were last week, when Manning was over $10k and Brees was close, I would feel a lot better about using Locker. He provides tremendous value at the price (think about it: last year, Ken Wisenhunt managed to find a Philip Rivers lookalike who could actually throw a football, then he convinced everyone it actually was Philip Rivers; imagine what he can do this year with the real-life arm talent of Jake Locker), and the Cowboys pass D is downright bad. Locker has an outside chance of being the highest-scoring QB of the week, and you could save $1k to $2k of budget by using him. But using Locker with Manning, Brees, Rodgers, etc. priced so low is a risk, as the rest of your players will not be distinctly better than teams rolling with the more obvious QB plays. If Locker booms, you’ll be in great shape, but if he busts, most of your competition will have a top QB on their roster. I will probably have no exposure to Locker, but I can guarantee you that a lot of very smart and consistently profitable DFS players will be using him, and I certainly would not blame you if you used him also.
Sweepstakes Pick:
I cannot, in good conscience, recommend a Sweepstakes Pick at QB this week. Again: if Peyton, Rodgers, Luck, Foles, and Brees were all priced at or above $9k, I would strongly recommend looking at a guy like Ryan “Will Hunting” Fitzpatrick at $5k. As I said last week, Fitzpatrick’s noodle arm will probably secure a handful of 300 yard, 3 TD performances this year, and – again – this is a matchup in which he could do that. If you roll with him and he hits those marks, you have a lot of extra salary to work with! But do you really want to risk submarining your team on a week when Peyton, Brees, Luck, Foles, and Rodgers are priced so low? I am only one man (as far as I know), and this is only one man’s opinion. But this one man’s opinion is that you should pay up at QB this week.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$7000 – ARIAN FOSTER vs Raiders
Old Man Arian had 27 carries last week. Twenty-seven! Is that Gary Kubiak in Bill O’Brien’s pocket, or is he just happy to…Okay, seriously though, Foster’s YPC was only 3.7 in a semi-plus matchup, but he actually looked like Arian Foster, which is very good. There are several tremendous RB plays in this price range (and I would not discourage you from finding a way to fit in two of them on your rosters), but Foster is my favorite of the bunch. He’s going up against a non-scary Raiders D that gave up 6.2 YPC to the Jets (yup – those Jets), and any back with his level of talent and this workload against a subpar D is almost impossible to justify keeping off your lineup.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7400 – JAMAAL CHARLES vs Broncos
Do you have time for a story? It’s a short story, I promise. And it’s worth it…I think. You ready? Okay, here it is: I have a season-long league I have played in with my buddies from college for over 10 years now. We put up no money in the league, but we do have what we call the Ring of Shame: lowest point total each week has to shave a visible ring of hair off their body (preferably forearm or calf, but we’ve also had rings of hair shaved around the head and across the chest). It’s one of those leagues that exists less for the competition and more for the history, the camaraderie, and the stories – and often, I care more about my performance in that league than I care about anything else (uh…anything else in fantasy, that is…at least, I think that’s what I mean). In 2009, my team was in rough shape at running back, and I picked up some backup running back for the Chiefs that I kept hearing good things about. His name was Jamaal Charles. A couple weeks later, Larry Johnson was cut from the team (this was back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, of course), and Jamaal Charles burst onto the scene. In 2010, I made it a point to “reach” for Jamaal in our draft in that league (I believe I got him in the 3rd round), and – surprise! – he finished the season as a Top 3 back. In 2011, I tried to trade up in our draft so I could grab Jamaal again, but I was unable to pull off the trade. Jamaal was drafted by someone else, and what happened? He had a mediocre Week 1, then he shredded his knee in Week 2. In 2012, our league switched to an auction draft, and I got Jamaal for far less than he should have cost because of concerns surrounding his knee.
Of course, he finished the season as a Top 7 back, and I paid up for him again in 2013, when he finished as the #1 overall back. That brings us to this year, when – for the first time since 2009 – I made no effort to get Jamaal Charles onto my team in that league. I’m not really sure why (I think maybe I was trying to be unpredictable; also, there was the whole thing about “drafting in the Bahamas two nights before some fantasy baseball tournament from DraftKings with $1 million to first place, and being slightly more focused on that”). But whatever the reason, I miss Jamaal already. This week, at the ridiculously low price of $7400 – on a week in which some people will stay away from Charles because he had such low usage last week, and in which I believe he will have a good 25 touches to make up for his low usage last week – I will try to fit him onto all my lineups. Maybe I just miss him…but maybe, instead, it is impossible to justify NOT using this talent at this price.
$7200 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Chargers
Lynch does not catch a ton of passes, but his touches, yards, and touchdowns more than make up for that. Everything I said about Arian Foster regarding talent, usage, and matchup goes for Marshawn as well. He could easily be the top RB this week. Also: Skittles.
$6300 – GIOVANI BERNARD vs Falcons
I am slightly concerned about Jeremy Hill eating into carries this week. You’re not? Good for you, but I trust Hue Jackson to maximize the talent on his offense, and part of that will be getting the ball into Hill’s hands – and in a game in which you want to control the clock and keep the other team’s QB on the sideline, Hill could be a big part of the game plan. With that said, I still think Gio’s floor for touches is 15, and he can do a lot with 15 touches – especially against this “defense.” I’d have a hard time using him at 15 touches with Marshawn, Jamaal, and Arian (not to mention Adrian Peterson against my Patriots) priced only a few hundred more than him, but if you think Gio will get 20+ touches (he very well could!), $6.3k is a tremendous value.
$5900 – SHANE VEREEN vs Vikings
When I was a kid, my parents sometimes took me to a soft-serve ice cream place where they dipped the ice cream in chocolate (actually, it was more like a black wax that sort of tasted like chocolate). The best times were always when they double-dipped the ice cream. This week, we are double-dipping on Shane Vereen (and it tastes so good…or, something like that). Last week, at a DraftKings price of $6,000, the Pats had Vereen on the field for 61 of 86 snaps, giving him seven carries (including three goal line carries) and throwing to him eight times. This week, his price has dropped another $100. Yes, please. Thank you. I will enjoy this ice cream cone.
$5000 – TOBY GERHART vs Redskins
When the Jags have scoring opportunities, Gerhart will have a great chance of benefitting. Hey – what’s with the smirk? Oh, you think “Jags” and “scoring opportunities” is a funny combination? You may be surprised! The Jaguars still lack true talent on defense, but they have a tremendous, defensive-minded coach guiding them, and they are playing the “enter at your own risk, we’re still under construction” project known as the Redskins offense. I can see the Jags operating with a few short fields on Sunday, and teams will learn quickly that the trio of Hurns, Lee, and a healthy Shorts deserves respect – even if Henne is shooting ducks out of his arm toward them – which should open some extra room for Gerhart. He probably won’t be much more than a 4.0 YPC back this year, but this is a plus matchup with a good chance for both 100 yards and a TD. If he’s healthy, he’s a safe bet to triple his salary, with a good shot at quadrupling.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3600 – JEREMY HILL vs Falcons
Remember when I mentioned Jeremy Hill up there? Yeah. I could see him getting 10 to 12 carries, including a few chances near the goal line. He’s not going to get you a hundred yards and two touchdowns, and it’s certainly a risk to roll with him in a lineup, but if you choose to roll with him, you open a lot of salary for other positions, and there is a very good chance Hill could end up quadrupling his salary against a soft Falcons defense.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$7000 – DEMARYIUS THOMAS vs Chiefs
Now, that’s just silly. $7,000? Come on. For real? Best of all, this could be similar to the Aaron Rodgers situation described above: Demaryius does not have any bad commercials scaring people off using him, but his poor stats from Week 1 will chase some people away…even though he had 11 targets, and even though he’s still Demaryius. He and Calvin Johnson are 1-A and 1-B this week for the top WR option. Demaryius costs $7,000, while Calvin Johnson costs $8,500. I will have Demaryius in every lineup. This is too much talent to pass up at this price.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6600 – JORDY NELSON vs Jets
If you order Rodgers as your main course, you need to also order Jordy or Cobb as your side dish. This week, I’ll take a healthy helping of Jordy on my teams (including even teams without Rodgers). The matchup against this Jets secondary is too good to pass up, and Jordy’s potential for a huge game with one or two long scores is appetizing.
$6400 – ANDRE JOHNSON vs Raiders
There are a lot of wide receivers I could mention in this price range, and you cannot really go wrong with any of them: Alshon Jeffery (if he plays) at $6200, Roddy White at $6100, Jeremy Maclin at $6100 (a must-start if you run Foles out there in your QB slot), and Michael Floyd at $6000 all come to mind. But Andre at $6400 is my favorite of the bunch, as Fitzpatrick and O’Brien should continue to rely on him against a beatable Raiders defense. In PPR (hint: that’s what DraftKings is), Andre has clear Top 5 potential. Finding him at $6400 is almost criminal.
$5300 – REGGIE WAYNE / $5000 – T.Y. HILTON vs Eagles
A wise man named Mitch Hedberg once said that there is no such thing as “two in one,” as two is too big to fit into one. We will test the validity of that theory with a “two in one” recommendation of Colts wide receivers. Now, I should mention: I certainly see it being a viable strategy to fade offensive players from this game, as it is getting hyped up a ton and nearly everyone will have a piece of the action. However, if you choose to fade Colts and Eagles on Monday night, you better know what you’re getting yourself into: a long Monday of knowing your team is finished when everyone else in your GPP has about 300 minutes of football left amongst all their players! I love both Colts wide receivers in this game, but I’d recommend T.Y. over Reggie in tournament play. While Reggie is going to be the more consistent producer of the two, T.Y. is the one with the potential to put up a 40-point game.
$5000 – VINCENT JACKSON vs Rams
People are unlikely to be using Vincent Jackson this week. And remember: it’s always beneficial to own players who are on hardly any other rosters (amendment: it is beneficial to own low-owned players IF those players put up big games!). Jackson is sliding under the radar after the poor showing from the Bucs offense in Week 1, but keep in mind that McCown made defenses look silly last year with two big targets he could toss the ball to in Chicago – and that’s exactly what he has in Tampa as well. Jackson comes with a risk of inconsistency, but he has the potential to be the #1 wide receiver on any given week. I don’t think he will quite reach those heights this week, but I do see a big game from him – one in which he more than pays off his salary!
$4300 – JUSTIN HUNTER vs Cowboys
You’ve read the hype. Now it’s time to buy into it. In tournament play, you are looking for guys with the potential to absolutely go off. Justin Hunter has that potential. And the Cowboys secondary is willing to help him get there. This pick does not come without a bit of risk (he is, after all, technically their “#3 receiver,” and he will run fewer routes than Wright or Washington), but if you are looking to maximize your team’s ceiling, look no further than this dude in a matchup with the softest defense known to man.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – JARRETT BOYKIN vs Jets
You know who had as many targets last week as Jarrett Boykin? You did. The difference between Jarrett Boykin and you, however, is that he had zero targets while playing 60 minutes of professional football (he also, presumably, got paid more for his zero-target performance than you got paid for getting zero targets while watching him). What you may not have realized, however, is that this was intentional. Because Richard Sherman plays sides (rather than shadowing one receiver), the Packers left Boykin on Sherman’s side all night in order for free up Jordy and Cobb. I can see the Packers making a point of getting the ball to Boykin early and often in this one, and I want a piece of the action when they do.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$3200 – CHARLES CLAY vs Bills
Don’t be fooled by his poor showing last week. This guy is still an integral piece in the Dolphins offense, and he should get plenty of looks – including near the goal line. It’s safe to assume seven or eight targets for him; if he turns this into just five catches for 46 yards, he triples his salary. And I fully expect a touchdown to show up for him this week as well. He has the potential to provide huge value at a very low price.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7000 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Browns
If I am going to hype Demaryius Thomas at $7000, I have to mention Jimmy Graham at $7000 as well. One of the best things about daily fantasy sports is that people tend to focus far too much on the previous week’s stats. Because of that, you may see lower ownership numbers than you should see from guys like Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, and Jimmy Graham (who, of course, was not exactly disappointing last week, but did not do anything to stand out and implore people to buy). This is not Space Jam. No aliens came down to Earth and sucked the talent out of these guys. They are just as good of plays as they were coming into the season; in fact, they’re better, because their price has dropped!
$3900 – KYLE RUDOLPH vs Patriots
Last week was weird for Kyle Rudolph. And I don’t mean good weird. In a Norv Turner offense, you expect to see the tight end featured a lot more than Rudolph was featured last week. As such, I expect to see Rudolph featured a lot more this week. He makes a very strong play at his price, as he should rack up targets and have one or two opportunities near the goal line.
$3800 – JASON WITTEN vs Titans
This game is going to be a shootout. Okay, yes, that could be said of every Cowboys game, because Jerry doesn’t think it’s cool to save salary cap space for defense. But that does not detract from the fact that it is true for this week, and Witten’s price is very low. I like Rudolph and Cameron (see below) more at this price than I like Witten, but I would not be surprised if Witten proved me wrong.
$3800 – JORDAN CAMERON vs Saints
Yes, Norv Turner is gone. But what else is different for Cameron this year? Last year, everyone was making mix tapes for the guy, and suddenly no one is even picking up the phone when he calls. Cameron is one of the focal points of this offense (such as it is), and he’s a superior talent. If he suits up this week, he’s well worth getting into your lineup.
$3100 – NILES PAUL vs Jaguars
How much do we know about Niles Paul, really? Well, how much do we need to know? If Jordan Reed is out, Paul will step into what has become checkdown heaven. He may or may not be a superior talent, but it may nor may not matter given the potential opportunities and the low price tag to boot!
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – TIM WRIGHT vs Vikings
Last week, in this spot, we went with talent over usage, recommending Travis Kelce. This week, we are doing the same thing. Tim Wright is not yet an integral piece of this offense (and may never become one), but he has an immense amount of talent, and the Patriots tend to do a great job of maximizing talent. He is a much riskier pick than Charles Clay (at a near-negligible savings of $200), but he also has sneaky upside for a huge game. As of yet, I am undecided on whether or not I will roll out any lineups with Wright, but for all the risk involved, the upside is certainly appealing.
This week, try letting go of your preconceived notions and instead build your teams based on research and numbers!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go build a team with no Broncos, and with none of the well-researched players I listed above…