Week 2: Tale of the Tape
The second Sunday of the NFL season brought more surprises than the first, with injuries plaguing nearly every NFL team, and surprising stars coming out of nowhere to make and break daily fantasy lineups.So just like last week, let’s take a look at the tape for some early observations based on Week 2’s film in Tale of the Tape.
Is Bobby Rainey the Real Deal?
Doug Martin was held out of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the St. Louis Rams with a knee injury, allowing last year’s waiver-wire hero Bobby Rainey to start in his place.
And while Martin did face the Carolina Panthers defense, and Rainey got an easier task against the St. Louis Rams, the difference in these players based on a small sample size of film is astounding.
During the Carolina game, Martin was hesitant, failed to break any tackles, and showed poor vision, running into his own linemen and not seeing cutback lanes and possible bounce-out opportunities. Rainey, on the other hand, was explosive and creative, as I’ll show in the images below.
To provide some background for this image, Rainey has already exploded through the crease in the line on an outside run and found enough room to get a first down. But he’s not done.
Despite being surrounded by seven Rams defenders, Rainey manages to turn this play into more than 20 extra yards with some shifty moves and strong running. Doug Martin has been in this same situation on several occasions over the past three
years, and tends to use only power, while Rainey uses jukes and cuts in addition to his surprising strength.
Did someone say surprising strength? In the image above, you see Rainey with linebacker Alec Ogletree on his back. Play over, right?
Not exactly. Rainey may be short at only 5’7”, but he weighs over 200 pounds, and posted 24 reps on the bench press at his pro day coming out of college. He uses that strength and his excellent balance to shrug off his defender and stay on his feet.
Rainey wasn’t done, as he’d hurdle the defender he just threw off of his back, and would plow ahead for five extra yards. This is further proof of the rare speed/size combo that Rainey possesses, and shows why he’s really just an opportunity away from being a star in the NFL.
Because for all of Martin’s impressive NFL Combine metrics, including an excellent height/weight balance and good agility in the 3-cone drill, Rainey’s pro day numbers were better in nearly every way. It’s not unfair to say that Bobby Rainey is a better athlete than the Muscle Hamster, despite going undrafted out of Western Kentucky.The issue for Rainey’s fantasy football value is his head coach, Lovie Smith. Smith tends to be very stubborn about who he starts (“Rex is our quarterback. We’re going to win games with Rex.”), and he may insist on starting Martin despite Rainey putting better tape on the field so far this year.
As a writer covering the Buccaneers, I had a lot of faith in Doug Martin to bounce back and be a top running back this year. And while two weeks of film isn’t enough to say that Martin isn’t worthy of a starting role any longer, there’s enough evidence to say that Rainey should be the lead back and get every opportunity to make explosive plays for the Bucs.
He’s a better receiver than Martin, and he’s shown better vision so far this season in Jeff Tedford’s new offensive scheme. He’s also broken tackles, something Martin was unable to do in his first game this year. Broken tackles defined Martin’s 2012 breakout, but he’s been unable to recreate that magic since.The takeaway here is that Rainey is a very strong daily fantasy option when he starts, which will happen when Martin is injured, or when Lovie Smith breaks from his tradition and benches a starter on offense. So keep an eye on the Buccaneers’ injury report and on Lovie Smith’s press conferences, because you’ll want Rainey in your lineups every time he has the leading role in the Tampa offense.
That starts with Week 3, against Atlanta…
Why you should always target the Atlanta defense.
The Atlanta Falcons spent most of their offseason adding players to their offensive and defensive lines, hoping to be “more physical” this season. And after finishing with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, led by a pass-rushing unit that earned only 32 sacks, third-worst in the league, that was a wise decision. But through two weeks, those additions haven’t paid off.Atlanta remains the only team to not register a sack in 2014, and that lack of pass rush is exposing their defensive backs and linebackers in coverage. Here’s an example from their Week 2 game against the Bengals.
The Falcons are sending eight men after the quarterback on this play, meaning their coverage will be “Cover 0” with no safeties available behind the play. It’s the ultimate risk-reward for a defense.
It didn’t pay off. The Bengals were able to pick up most of the blitzers, and Andy Dalton stood tall in the pocket in the face of a free rusher and kept his hot read in view.
Zero-pressure, or sending blitzers and leaving no safeties back in coverage, is a risky defensive call that requires defensive backs to deny slants and in-cutting routes and force quarterbacks to make throws to the outside.The Falcons weren’t able to do that on this play.
Robert Alford did all he could on this play after falling behind Mohamed Sanu, but since he was unable to get inside leverage, a perfect throw is always going to beat him.
Had Alford been able to stay inside of Sanu, this play would never happen, but instead, he’s the last line of defense, and his heroic dive for the ball turned into the removal of the last line of defense, as Sanu had nothing but green grass ahead of him after Alford fell to the turf.
So why do the Falcons blitz? Because their four-man pressure doesn’t get to the quarterback. In the image above, we see Atlanta sending only four rushers. Gio Bernard helps out his interior linemen and picks up a rusher, and Andy Dalton has all day in the pocket.
And with no other options downfield, and after forcing the linebackers to drop deep to cover the routes as they develop, Dalton waits as long as he can and dumps the ball off to Bernard, who has no one within ten yards. He’s able to break to the sideline and pick up a big gain.The Falcons remain unable to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and while they do have talented cornerbacks, they’re not on a Darrelle Revis “island” level and cannot change the defense on their own.
Which is why you should continue to target the Falcons this year, as opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends should flourish against their lacking front seven.
Tampa Bay is their Week 3 opponent on a Thursday night game, which may not be an ideal situation for most daily players who prefer Sunday slates, but Minnesota and the New York Giants are the next two teams on the schedule, and their quarterbacks and receivers will make for interesting punt plays when the Falcons come to town.