Week 3: In Which Polar Bears Cannot Swim
“Oh, the shame of the polar bear who fears the water. No wonder we are shunned by our fellow bear. Woe is us.”
Am I the only one who grew up watching ‘Balto’? Wait…what? You can’t seriously tell me I am!
Well, okay. In case you haven’t seen it…‘Balto’ was a cartoon about Balto the half-wolf living in Nome, Alaska. What happens to half-wolves? I’m glad you asked. The wolves want nothing to do with the half-wolf, of course, and apparently (if Dreamworks checked their facts before making the movie, at least) the humans and domestic dogs want nothing to do with the half-wolf either. Poor Balto. Poor, outcast Balto.
Actually, it turns out the story of Balto is true. Not the story shown in the movie (as far as I know, the real Balto did not speak in the voice of Kevin Bacon; that’s at least one inconsistency between the real-life Balto and the cartoon version). But in real life, Balto was the lead dog on the last leg of a sort of “life-or-death-sled-dog-relay,” in which a series of sled dog teams raced a shipment of diphtheria antitoxin to the town of Nome, in order to combat what would otherwise have been a deadly outbreak of diphtheria among the town’s children. Balto was not considered fit to lead a sled dog team, and had been overlooked until that moment when he was needed most – at which point he became both a hero and an international celebrity. (Apparently, the true story wasn’t cool enough for Hollywood, or for Kevin Bacon, so they turned Balto into an outcast half-wolf instead of just an overlooked sled dog. Cool story, Hansel.)
The original plan, of course – whether your history source is history itself or a cartoon with Kevin Bacon – was never for Balto to have any part in this triumph. But sometimes, the original plan is not always the best plan.
(There were two ways I could have gone with the intro this week, so I’ll let you in on a secret: I’m about to clumsily tie both intros together; each intro leads into the same theme – the whole thing about “veering away from the original plan” – and honestly, you can jump right down to this week’s picks if you’d like, but I still want to tell this other story…so, yeah. Stick around for Intro Two if it sounds like fun.)
For example (this paragraph opening of “for example” would make a lot more sense if it were coming right after that paragraph that ends with, “the original plan is not always the best plan” – so, you know, go ahead and just pretend that’s where this paragraph is situated), my original plan this last Monday was to head over to a buddy’s for Monday Night Football. Instead, my wife and I were driving to pick up some food, and I said to her:
“Do you want to go to Colorado?”
“When?” she said.
“I don’t know. Right now. Let’s leave right now.”
“Are you serious?”
“Yeah. Let’s go.”
We drove home and packed and hit the road. We arrived in Denver around 7 a.m. on Tuesday, I napped, then we spent the day hanging out in the city before walking over to Coors Field for a game that night. On Wednesday, we drove to Pike’s Peak and spent the day exploring, and on Thursday we had brunch in the city then made the 10 hour drive home.
No – that was not the original plan for the week. I still had to do a bit of freelance writing work each night, and my wife had to do some photo editing each night. I also have to do some work Friday night and Saturday to make up for what I missed while we were away. It was not the original plan…but you know what? It was perfect.
As fantasy footballers, we often have a set idea of what the “original plan” is (see how that all led to the same place? – very nice!). One example that comes to mind is the Sunday games in Week 1: Cecil Shorts was listed among the inactive players for the Jaguars on Sunday morning, and even though nearly everyone already had their “perfect rosters” set, a handful of savvy daily fantasy players realized they could use Allen Hurns and free up salary cap space to make their “perfect roster” even more perfect. Allen Hurns was not part of the original plan, but veering from the original plan enabled people to make their rosters even better.
This week, I think a lot of people will say, “The ‘original plan’ calls for me to always handcuff a quarterback to one of their receivers in GPP play to maximize upside, so I have to stick with that.”
I say: sometimes, the original plan is not always the best plan!
One of the greatest things you can do in daily fantasy football is remain flexible on a week-to-week basis, and on a situation-by-situation basis. Two weeks ago, a lot of people (myself included) saw the news about Shorts being inactive and thought, “I really ought to put Hurns in my lineup, but my lineup is already set and I don’t want to mess anything up.” Okay. Great. But sometimes, it’s necessary to “mess things up”!
And this week, a lot of people, surely, will have more dead spots on their roster than they should because they “have to” pair their Stafford pick with Calvin Johnson, or “have to” pair Aaron Rodgers with Jordy Nelson, or “have to” pair Brees with Jimmy Graham. But is that really what you “have to” do?
In an overall, throughout-the-season sense, I want to encourage you to remain flexible as you build your rosters. If your team is already in place and some injury news emerges on Saturday or Sunday that gives you an opportunity to improve your team even more, go ahead and shed the original plan! Improve your team even more.
And in a this-week-specific sense, I want to emphasize that it is sometimes okay to veer away from your preconceived notion of what the “original plan” should always be. Now that we are in Week 3, the pricing on DraftKings is becoming sharper, which means there are far fewer major-upside-bargains at the $3k price than there were in the first couple weeks of the season. This makes it harder to fit in several top-priced guys while still fielding a top-notch roster. And because Calvin Johnson is Calvin Johnson, and because Jordy Nelson went nuts last week, pairing either of them with their respective QB (each of whom is also top-priced) will make it tough for you to do anything but bargain-hunt elsewhere.
I may risk a few rosters this week with those QB-WR pairings, but for the most part, I am going to avoid handcuffing Stafford to Megatron and Rodgers to Jordy when I pick those QBs. No, it might not be what the “original plan” calls for, but it WILL put you in the best possible position to field a full roster of high-floor, high-ceiling players!
Every week, in this article, our goal is to find guys who have a good chance of tripling their price, while also having the upside to quadruple (or more-than-quadruple) their price. (For example: a guy who costs $5k should have a good chance of scoring 15, with 20-plus upside.) In this way – with a total DraftKings budget of $50k – you should always have a great chance of finishing in the money (150 points) or winning (200 points) any GPP enter!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are this week’s picks:
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$8900 – DREW BREES vs Vikings
He’s coming home! Pop the champagne. Crack open the humidor and grab a cigar (and for heaven’s sake, use a cigar cutter this time – don’t try to use the scissors!). It’s time to celebrate the statistical onslaught known as “Drew Brees at the I-still-just-call-it-Superdome.” This is the third straight week in which I have mentioned Brees, and I have been moderately wrong each of the other two times (not bad games, of course, but certainly nothing close to the top score of the week). The one concern in a game like this is that the Saints could take their foot off the pedal early if they get up big. But then…when have you known these Saints to do that? I like Brees as a strong bet for the top QB of the week – especially coming off two tough losses and playing at home.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$9200 – AARON RODGERS vs Lions
Pop quiz: which game has the highest over/under of the week? Did you guess Packers-Lions? Good for you! You get a cookie. (Not really. Well, I mean, you do if you want one, but you’ll have to get it yourself.) This game should be a shootout, and with the Lions’ strong run D, Rodgers could once again find himself passing, and passing, and passing, and passing. Really, he is just as good of a bet for #1 QB of the week as Brees. In fact, so is…
$8800 – MATT STAFFORD vs Packers
Matthew Stafford. Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees. No matter which guy you pick, you have a great shot at having the highest QB output of the week. I like Rodgers and Brees a little more than Stafford this week because of Stafford’s propensity for boneheaded mistakes, but I will have plenty of exposure to Stafford. I’d rather pay up for one of these three and save money elsewhere than bargain hunt at QB this week.
$7400 – CAM NEWTON vs Steelers
If bargain hunting is your thing, however, Cam is a great pick this week. He’s not quite a Building 19 bargain (anyone get that reference?), but his price is low enough to save you salary cap space elsewhere while still giving you #1 QB upside. So much was made this offseason of Cam’s poor receiving corps that we forget he’s always had a pretty poor stable of WRs to chuck the ball to…and, in fact, this may be his best group of receivers yet! Cam has 35-point upside every week, and against an underwhelming Steelers defense, this week could easily be one of those weeks.
$6800 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Broncos
Let the man throw! Every week, it seems, Russ gets more freedom in the offense, and this may very well be a week in which the Seahawks need him to have that freedom. I do not imagine this game will turn into a classic Broncos-style shootout – especially not with the game being played in Seattle – but I still think Russ will have to throw more than normal. He has scored right around 20 points on DraftKings each of the first two weeks – which would thoroughly justify this salary (heck, that’s what Drew Brees has been scoring! – thanks, Drew). And if he ends up having to throw more than normal, you may very well be spending some winnings on a Russell Wilson bobblehead.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$6600 – COLLIN KAEPERNICK vs Cardinals
I don’t love this pick. I could see this being something like a 15-12 game (I’m talking about the score in the real-life game; you do know that these are real-life games, right?). But Kaepernick is worth mentioning here because he’s probably a Top 12 QB this week, and if he performs at that level, this price is a decent bargain. Add that to the fact that Kaepernick has the ability to unexpectedly go off in any game, and it’s not a bad bargain to consider.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5200 – RASHAD JENNINGS vs Texans
I was a skeptic. I still am to an extent, in fact. But Jennings has looked good so far – and more importantly, he is getting a consistent workload. If you can bank on somewhere around 20 touches from a running back, he’s immediately worth more than $5200. If you can bank on 20 touches from a guy who has been playing well and is facing a middling run defense, $5200 becomes one of the best values of the day. Jennings should be a Top 10 RB this week – and at this price, that’s tremendous value.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7800 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Redskins
If you are paying up for a running back this week, you will notice that most of them are priced similarly to one another. As such, my pick this week would be LeSean. He is still getting a more-than-healthy (is that a thing? – more-than-healthy?) 25 touches per game, and he’s notching nearly 20 DraftKings points per game without yet hanging any huge runs or signature home run plays on his stat line. This is a great week to have a piece of LeSean, as the flashy Sproles statistics should keep LeSean’s ownership numbers down, and he has the highest ceiling of any RB in the league.
$5200 – DARREN SPROLES vs Redskins
Whaaaaaaaaat? Really, though. What? Last week, I flirted with the idea of putting in a number of teams with both McCoy and Sproles at RB. I decided not to, because it seemed to be statistically unreasonable to expect two RBs to consistently maintain a high level of production on the same team. But Chip Kelly is like those memes with a cat pushing a barrell out of a creek or something, where it says, “This cat is pushing a barrel out of a creek. Your argument is invalid.” Chip Kelly is that cat pushing a barrel out of a creek (or something). Concerns about statistical unreasonability are invalid. I’m a believer in Sproles at this price – no doubt about it.
$5400 – ANDRE ELLINGTON vs 49ers
This guy was everyone’s hype-pick to crash the Top 10 RBs. He goes and hurts his foot, follows it up with a pair of still-very-solid games (averaging close to 20 touches per game, no less), and his price is sitting at $5400 with pretty low ownership numbers to boot. Really? I’ll make this easy on you: the 49ers defense is not as scary as most people think, and Ellington’s foot is not slowing him down as much as most people think. This is a very good spot for Ellington to have a big game – especially with Dwyer out and the Cardinals bye week coming up in Week 4. I would not be surprised to see 22 to 24 touches for Ellington, and I would not be surprised to see him turn those touches into 20 to 25 fantasy points.
$3500 – DONALD BROWN vs Bills
Who led the NFL last year in Pro Football Focus’ Elusiveness Rating? If you guessed Donald Brown, you cheated. The Bills have a good defense, sure, but the Chargers have a good offense as well. I am stunned that Brown’s price is so low, and I am stunned that he is ranked outside the top 30 running backs this week pretty much anywhere you look. At $3500, Brown is as safe a bet as any player in fantasy football this weekend to triple his salary, and he probably has the best chance of any player in fantasy football of quintupling his salary as well. Sure, he could end up with a dud, but a solid game is far more likely, and a big game is not an unreasonable expectation.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$4000 – JEREMY HILL vs Titans
Last week, I suggested Jeremy Hill as a sweepstakes pick at $3000, explaining that I expected him to take away work from Gio. Yeah. I was wrong about him taking away work from Gio, as Gio had a borderline-absurd 32(!) touches – but Hill had 17 touches of his own (as in: as many touches as most “lead backs” get in a game), and he turned those into 17.6 fantasy points. This offense cannot sustain a combined 49 touches between two running backs, but they will scale Gio back to his regular range of 18 to 20, and they will continue to get the ball into Hill’s hands at least 12 to 15 times a game. With A.J. Green potentially out this week, they’ll lean on the run game even more, and Hill could easily hit 15 to 18 touches. That’s a lot of numbers to say: Hill is about as safe as it gets in this price range for guaranteed carries, and he has a ton of talent with which to turn those carries into points.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5400 – PERCY HARVIN vs Broncos
Percy had a quiet week last week? Perfect! This has driven down his price, and it will drive down his ownership numbers. Percy Harvin is a Top 20 FLEX play this week, in a game in which the Seahawks may have to pass a good 35 times (gasp!) – and yet, he is barely priced in the Top 50 FLEX options. He comes with “boom or bust” risk, but it’s a safer pick than you may be thinking, and the ceiling is immense.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6600 – DEMARYIUS THOMAS vs Seahawks
Calvin Johnson. Think about that name. Think about the images of football awesomeness that name evokes. Now, ask yourself this: If Calvin Johnson were priced at $6600, would it matter to you who his opponent was? Would it matter if Darrelle Revis were shadowing him all game? At $6600, the answer is probably that you would not care at all – at $6600, you would fit Calvin Johnson into your lineup regardless. So I’ll make this simple: if that’s what you would do for Calvin Johnson, you should do the same for Demaryius. Are they equal players? No – not yet, at least. But they’re close. And Demaryius has Peyton. And Richard Sherman is not Darrelle Revis. And even if he were, he will not be shadowing Demaryius Thomas all game. Demaryius’ ownership numbers will probably be lower than they ought to be, and you can get a big boost over your opposition by having him in your lineup.
$5800 – PIERRE GARCON vs Eagles
“But, Cousins didn’t throw to him at all last week.” True. But let me ask you this: What happened last year when Kirk Cousins played? Oh, that’s right. He found Garcon a ridiculous amount. As the saying goes: You can’t trust a Gruden (what? – that’s not a saying? – well, we ought to make it one), but Brother of Chucky will have to dial up a lot of passes in this one, and that means a lot of opportunities for Garcon to rack up points.
$5800 – MIKE WALLACE vs Chiefs
You don’t trust Mike Wallace. That’s all right. I don’t trust him either. (I also don’t trust Santa Claus, but that’s a story for another day.) But this year is different. Those two touchdowns in two games are not a fluke. Tannehill still looks a bit scattershot at times, but Lazor is scheming the ball into Wallace’s hands, and – perhaps even more surprisingly – Wallace is closing his hands around the ball when it comes to him (also known as a “catch”). It won’t be long before Wallace’s price starts climbing. Get the production at this price while you can!
$4800 – KELVIN BENJAMIN vs Steelers
There were three wide receivers we could have placed here at $4800, but our two-in-one pick of Hilton and Wayne proved last week that two is, in fact, too big to fit into one, so we certainly should not risk the potential side effects of a three-in-one prediction. As such, we will leave Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald out (brief analysis on those: Floyd and Fitz are much better NFL WRs than Benjamin at this point, but I do not want to put my trust in Stanton and his “throw somewhere near the receiver and hope something not-bad happens” approach; if Palmer does start this week, I would nudge Floyd into the spot above, over Benjamin, and if Stanton starts and you want to use a Cardinals WR for who-only-knows-what-reason, I would go with Fitz). This leaves us with Kelvin Benjamin and his sky-high ceiling against a beatable Steelers secondary. Benjamin has the ability to put up 30 points in a game. Realize, however, that choosing a rookie WR in his third career game could also lead to a score of 0. Benjamin is a really solid tournament play given the affordable price, but just make sure you know the risk before you put your eggs in his basket.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – PRESTON PARKER vs Texans
Look, I had to pick someone here, right? Seriously, though, Parker is an intriguing pick for me. There is always the chance Corey Washington gets most of the snaps in the slot this week, but Tom Coughlin tends to value reliability over talent, and right now Parker is the more reliable, veteran option. If Jernigan could look fantasy relevant in Week 1 (and if Donnell could look fantasy relevant for two consecutive weeks), why not Preston Parker? It’s a risky pick, but it’s also one with high upside – and you can be certain it will have extremely low ownership numbers across the board!
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4200 – KYLE RUDOLPH vs Saints
Not only is Rudolph a Top 6 or 7 TE this week, but he’s also a Top 40 or 50 FLEX option. And yet, he is barely priced in the top 100 FLEX options. It’s as simple as that. There are very few values across the board this week as big as this one.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$5900 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Raiders
On the one hand, this price is a bit ridiculous. On the other hand, when I say that, you may be left wondering whether I mean “ridiculously low” or “ridiculously high” – which pretty much illustrates the issue here. Gronk is clearly a Top 3 tight end if he’s playing, but how much will the Patriots need him to play in this one? If the Pats jump out to a big lead early, I could see them holding Gronk out for much of the game to continue getting him healthy. But with that said, Gronk on the field for 25 plays is still probably worth this price! He’s a risk, but he’s a risk that comes with a ton of upside.
$4400 – DENNIS PITTA vs Browns
Steve Smith Sr. Owen Daniels. What the heck, Flacco! Honestly, Flacco is tough to trust right now, but Pitta is the superior talent in the TE corps on this team, and he will have more opportunities for production than Daniels as well. I would not blame you for being scared of picking Pitta, but he does, genuinely, have some of the highest upside at the position.
$4200 – JORDAN CAMERON vs Ravens
If he plays, you ought to find a way to play him. It’s not complicated! There’s a clear Top 3 for tight ends in the NFL (Jimmy, Gronk, and Julius), but Cameron could very well turn that into a “clear Top 4.” He’s that good. If he can make it onto the field this week, $4200 is a steal.
$3400 – JARED COOK vs Cowboys
Oh, fancy seeing you here, Jared. I thought you passed away after Week 1 last year. What’s that? Oh, how nice for you – you’ve just been taking it easy. Must be fun! Well, I’m not sure if you heard, Jared, but you’re playing the Cowboys this week, and they’re really bad on defense. If you could, it would be nice to see you turn your typical “4 catches for 50 yards” into something more like “6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown.” You think you could do that for us? I know your quarterback is something called Austin Davis, but I think he can get the ball to you this weekend. You just go ahead and take care of the rest.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – DEREK CARRIER vs Cardinals
Have you heard the one about the Cardinals? It’s this joke called “trying to cover a tight end.” I don’t know – lots of people laugh about it, but maybe you just have to see it to understand. Look, if Vernon Davis is out this week, someone on the 49ers tight end depth chart is going to have a big game. Carrier is the best pass catcher of the bunch, and is the one likeliest to be used to exploit the one major weakness of this defense. He’s a risky pickup, but he is a risky pickup that could pay off in a big, big way.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go create an original plan so I can scrap it later!