Week 3 NFL DFS Low-Owned Tournament Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

For three weeks, we’re gonna take a look at early ownership data to find plays to add leverage to our lineups. We’ll simply look through various projection models to see who’s projected highly or maybe even pick on something that projections might be missing at low projected ownership.

“Low” is can be under 5%. It can be under 10%. It can be low on rankings of ownership tiers. Context will be added if necessary.

For detailed projections and projected ownership, refer to our NFL Lineup HQ.

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson at Vikings (DK)

QB ownership is pretty jumbled up into tiers, but there’s a noticeable drop-off on DK from the top-12 or so to Russell Wilson. That Wilson is manning a team with an implied total of over 28 points is deserving enough of some ownership over 5% for an average QB. For an elite QB like Russ — cookin’ or not — to not get love is a ripe opportunity for us. Russ has only dropped back 64 times through the first two games, but volume doesn’t matter for Russ because he’s among the most efficient in the history of the game. And if we’re living on a two-game sample: he has 10.02 IAY/PA this season, so he’s slingin’ it.

And it’s not like we don’t know what to do with him. Stack him with DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (not both because they negatively correlate) and bring it back with your choice of Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen. This is one of the highest-scoring games on the slate, so it’s not like the opportunity cost is high.

Ben Roethlisberger vs Bengals

Like Russ, Ben Roethlisberger projects not great, but not bad at all. His team total is lower, but without Diontae Johnson, he’s can lean on someone for high efficiency. And if this is the close game Vegas is calling, there’s a lot of room for Ben to be what opens this game up.

There’s a lot of leverage in this play, too.

The field is largely gonna be playing the Steelers by one-off’ing Najee Harris and maybe a little Chase Claypool. We can pivot off the Harris chalk by saying, hey, if the Steelers win a competitive game with decent scoring and this chalk we’re not playing doesn’t come through, then, the Steelers win through a Ben-Claypool stack.

This isn’t sexy now, but we’re talking about 40 efficient dropbacks at 3% ownership and a fair price. We can find space in our portfolios for Steelers stacks.

RUNNING BACKS

Nick Chubb

So, the Browns are gonna crush a team by a touchdown or more in a game where they might not even throw 20 times, and we don’t want the lead back? If there’s a time to gamble on Nick Chubb, it’s Week 3 at home against the Bears with a rookie making his first start on the other side. This game is exactly the game where we actually want Chubb: highly positive gamescript with a high implied total. He’s currently coming in at around 5% on FD and around 3% on DK. The other teams with wider spreads than the Browns are the Cardinals, Broncos, and Ravens. You want any of those situations over Chubb? Or the tighter games where the RBs are more likely to get deflated?

Sure, Kareem Hunt exists to cuck us all, but there will be games where Hunt takes the back seat to Chubb. This is exactly the gamescript for that to happen.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Adam Thielen vs. Seahawks

Is this a white thing? Because I can’t explain how Adam Thielen so consistently goes underowned. His 21.6% target share is on the low side to start the season and there’s nothing sexy about his 5.65 aDOT, but this is a guy who was third among all WRs in red zone targets in 2020 with 19 and inside the ten with 13. And he has two TD catches inside the ten this season through two games. He’s the security blankie of Kirk Cousins in a two-receiver offense in a near-pick-em game with a 55-total.

We can play Russ-Lockett-Thielen and basically not give a crap about ownership for the rest of the lineup as we’ve got a triad that almost no one is playing. Play whoever you want, as a wise man many times said.

For three weeks, we’re gonna take a look at early ownership data to find plays to add leverage to our lineups. We’ll simply look through various projection models to see who’s projected highly or maybe even pick on something that projections might be missing at low projected ownership.

“Low” is can be under 5%. It can be under 10%. It can be low on rankings of ownership tiers. Context will be added if necessary.

For detailed projections and projected ownership, refer to our NFL Lineup HQ.

QUARTERBACKS

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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