Week 4, In Which A Bike Ride Would Be Nice
It would be better to go for a bike ride. Maybe stop for a picnic with some sandwiches and chocolate-dipped strawberries and a bottle of wine. Perhaps go see a movie in the evening, then have a nice dinner at night. All those things would be better than watching football on Sunday.
Oh – sorry, I was just sort of thinking out loud…
You see, I typically watch the Patriots game pretty exclusively each Sunday, then I watch other games or the Red Zone channel when the Patriots game is not being played. This last Sunday, however (partly because – not really sure where this assumption came from, honestly – I gave this Patriots team too much credit and mistakenly assumed their game against the Raiders would result in a blowout), I went to a buddy’s house to watch the games: Six guys, the Red Zone channel on one big-screen television, and eight games at once on another big screen television. All of us had players going in daily fantasy and in season-long fantasy, and all of us had plenty to cheer for, yell about, celebrate (cry about, et cetera).
At one point (on a 3rd and 3 from the 10-yard-line, with…oh, I don’t know, roughly 13 minutes and 32 seconds remaining in the game), Rams’ tight end Jared Cook dropped a touchdown pass from Austin Davis. I’m not sure if you saw it, but the pass clanked right off his hands…then it clanked off his hands again as he tried a second time to catch it…then it clanked off his hands again as he tried a third time to catch it. It was a play worthy of the Not Top 10 – and if I had not been watching football that day, I would not have seen it happen. But I was watching football that day. And I did see it happen.
Several of us had Jared Cook on daily fantasy teams, and we jokingly (haha – so funny!) singled out that play at the moment.
“I wonder how much that drop is going to cost us.”
“Yeah, haha, I bet that play comes back to hurt us.”
“Jared Cook, you silly goon.”
Oh, so funny!
Then Monday ended. Daily fantasy scores went final. And it turned out, I had a pretty darn good weekend! My picks weren’t perfect, but they were about as close to perfect as you could get this last weekend. In fact, my picks were close-to-perfect enough that – guess what! – if I’d scored a mere 3 more points, I would have won a King of the Beach Qualifier on DraftKings (you know, the contest in which the winner gets a free trip to the Bahamas and a 1 in 50 shot at $1 million). Oh, and even better, I was a mere 3 points shy of finishing first place in the DraftKings NFL Sunday 400 Grand (yes, THAT NFL Sunday 400 Grand – the one that pays out $100,000 to first place; that’s “one hundred thousand dollars,” in case reading numbers isn’t your thing).
That Jared Cook drop? It cost me eight points.
Yeah. A bike ride would have been nice.
As I tried to avoid thinking about that play on Tuesday, it occurred to me that we as fantasy footballers tend to do that. “If only this guy had stretched for two more yards; if only that play had been ruled a touchdown on the field; if only Jared Cook had caught that pass.” But you know what? Those things did not happen. (Lord knows, they did not happen…) What DID happen, however, is we made the picks we made. And that, my friends, is the key – that is the one thing we can control.
If I look at the team that finished three points shy of a $100,000 pay day, I still feel good about all the picks I made. I would make those same picks again and feel great about them if given another chance.
The team that finished three points shy in the King of the Beach Qualifier? I chose the Panthers defense. They cost the same this last weekend as the Bengals, and as good as the Panthers defense is (uh…in theory, at least), the Bengals were a better play on Sunday. The Bengals are the defense I should have had on that team.
When we have a close call in daily fantasy football (a close call for finishing in the money, or a close call for a big score), it’s easy to get caught up in the game of, “If only this player had done this.” But it’s important to realize: thinking this way helps nothing! All that will result from thinking this way is that you will find yourself overthinking your picks the following weekend and second-guessing everything. Sadly, you cannot predict whether or not Jared Cook will catch a perfect pass that hits both his hands in the end zone, but you can predict the likelihood of him having opportunities to catch a lot of passes and make a lot of big plays.
At the end of each weekend, you should examine your teams – in fact, you should also study the teams from the top players, and from the top finishers in any given tournament – to see what you could/should have done differently. Sometimes, you will finish just shy of a big score and say, “You know what? I made the right picks on this team – it just didn’t work out this week. If I keep making right picks like that, however, I’ll keep having opportunities for good things to happen.” Other times, you’ll examine a team and say, “What the heck did I do that for? [Perhaps, depending on how bad the picks were, you will use much more colorful and entertaining language than this!] I need to make sure I avoid that mistake next time.” In this way, you will continue improving your teams, and will continue to give yourself opportunities for those big scores you are chasing.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are this week’s picks for the best values of the week – the guys I feel have a solid floor of 3x their salary on DraftKings (at a $50k DraftKings budget, this would give you a score of 150 – enough to finish in the money in nearly any tournament), and who have the potential to quadruple their salary ($50k times four = 200 points: enough to have a shot at winning nearly any tournament!).
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$8000 – MATT STAFFORD vs Jets
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before (not literally – because, you know, I’m writing this before you’ll actually read it, so it will be impossible for you to stop me…) – The Jets have a great run defense and an awful pass defense, so teams pretty much just pick on them through the air. As others cry and complain about how Stafford burned them last week, it’s a perfect time to run him out there in your lineup. He has a great chance of being the highest-scoring QB this week, he’ll be fairly low-owned, and he’s priced much lower than he will be for most of the rest of the season.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$8300 – MATT RYAN vs Vikings
If you make this pick, keep in mind that Matt Ryan outdoors against a Mike Zimmer defense is different than Matt Ryan indoors against the Bucs. In spite of his time spent battling brutal New England weather at Boston College, Matty Ice has melted a bit (see what I did there? – nice!) in the NFL in outdoor games. That’s the risk. I mention it because it’s worth mentioning. The upside, however, is immense. Ryan could easily put up a game similar to what he did last Thursday night.
$8200 – AARON RODGERS vs Bears
I could make a joke here about sacking Rodgers and celebrating, but I won’t. Not because I am trying to be sensitive to Stephen Tulloch – I’m simply not making a joke because I cannot come up with one. That’s all. Moving on…This week, Rodgers advised Packers fans to relax, and you should take his advice as well. We saw in Week 2 what Rodgers is capable of. With his price dropping and a matchup coming up against a banged-up Bears secondary, there is every reason to believe Rodgers is in for a big game. Did he burn you last week in that nasty Lions-Packers game? Great! He burned a lot of others as well, and many of them will not pick Rodgers this week as a result.
$7700 – PHILIP RIVERS vs Jaguars
I don’t want to pick on the Jaguars. I like Gus Bradley, and Shad Khan causes me to fear for my life (something about that mustache strikes terror in my heart). However, it must be noted: the Jaguars defense is not good. In fact, they’re pretty bad. In fact, they’re really bad. In fact, they’re downright awful. Rivers has looked good this year, and there is every reason to believe he will put up hefty numbers in this one. The only concern worth expressing is the same concern I voiced in this space last week regarding Luck: the Chargers could take their foot off the proverbial pedal if they get an early lead, which could limit Rivers’ upside. That did not end up being the case for the Colts last week, but that does not lessen the concern, either. The best case scenario would have Blake Bortles bringing his lightning rod onto the field and catching lightning with said lightning rod and using said lightning to light up the scoreboard and keep this game close. If all that does not happen (and if Bortles fails to find a way to light up the scoreboard without a lightning rod and lightning, and so on), there is a real risk Rivers’ upside will be capped.
$6700 – TONY ROMO vs Saints
Speaking of “upside being capped,” that’s a concern for this game as well. The stout Cowboys defense could shut down that wimpy Saints offense, and the ‘Boys could find themselves running out the clock for, like, the last two and a half quarters of this game. (That’s an example of me kidding.) Honestly, though, the Cowboys do continue to pound the rock on the ground in order to protect their defense, and because they continue to do a good job of this (and because they are playing the Saints offense), I do not expect it to change. Romo finally began looking better on deep shots last week, leading me to believe his back is starting to feel better. The Cowboys will need to put up points one way or another in this one, and a chunk of the responsibility for that will land on Romo. He may have a lower floor than the other QBs listed, but his ceiling is just as high, and his price makes him an attractive option.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$5800 – BLAKE BORTLES vs Chargers
Hey, guy. Remember when the Jaguars said they were going to hold you out all season? That was funny. Welcome to the starting lineup! What is this, Week 4? Well, how ‘bout that. A matchup against the Chargers is a great way for Bortles to begin his career as a starter. He is sure to make a few mistakes, but the Chargers are grading out negatively on all areas of defense. I will be surprised if Bortles is the number one QB of the week (which is what I tend to look for at the QB position), but I would not at all be surprised if he managed to return the highest point-per-dollar score of all QBs this weekend. There is immense risk involved in relying on a rookie QB in his first NFL start, but there is a lot of upside here as well.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5600 – EDDIE LACY vs Bears
My wife does not watch chick flicks. For this, I am grateful, as this means I do not have to watch chick flicks either. In fact, she and I have very similar tastes in movies (mostly the sort of stuff hipsters would call “films” – because, you know, it’s too mainstream to call those types of movies “movies”). There are, however, a few movies she likes that would be categorized as “chick flicks,” and one is the Zooey Deschanel and Joseph Gordon-Levitt movie (cough – I mean, “film”) “500 Days of Summer.” Have you seen it? It’s actually a really good flick. If you haven’t seen it, suggest to your girlfriend or wife or that girl whose friend zone you are in that you two see it. She’ll think you’re awesome. Which, let’s face it, you probably are. Especially if you’re reading this article. What was I saying? Oh, that’s right…I wanted to talk about Eddie Lacy. Okay – there’s this scene in “500 Days of Summer” where it shows a side-by-side version of Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s “expectations vs reality” (with his expectations of how things will go on one side of the screen, and his reality of how things are actually going on the other side of the screen). This week’s Eddie Lacy versus Bears matchup could go very much like that. The expectation – based on what we all think we know – is that Lacy is truly a Top 5 NFL running back, and that he has simply underperformed because he has faced three of the toughest run defenses in the NFL. We also know that the Bears have a very poor run D, and that the Packers have a serviceable O-line. The reality, however, is that the Packers O-line has truly been downright bad so far this year, and the Bears run defense has graded out slightly above-average according to Pro Football Focus. This needs to be mentioned, as Lacy may not be as “obvious” of a pick as he seems at first glance, in this matchup, at this price. With all that said, however: I do expect Lacy to have a very big game. I expect him to be a Top 5 back this week, easily. And at this price, with his talent, I cannot pass him up.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7800 – MATT FORTE vs Packers
Last week, I told you in this space that if I were paying up for a running back, my preference would be DeMarco Murray. This week, my money is on Matt Forte among the high-end options. He continues to get looks in the passing game, and his ownership numbers should be low after turning in some disappointing outings. He has a great shot at being the #1 RB play this weekend.
$6200 – LAMAR MILLER vs Raiders
Miller is priced right about where he should be, given talent (including O-line talent), matchup, and opportunity. And being “priced right about where he should be” is not really what this article is about. (This article is about trying – and mostly failing – to be funny. Oh, and it’s also about finding the best values on a point-per-dollar basis each week.) Two things that make this pick stand out to me, however, are the following: 1) Miller has logged exactly 5 targets each week so far; the Dolphins are making sure to create opportunities to get the ball to Miller in the passing game, which raises both his floor and ceiling in DraftKings’ PPR format. 2) I expect the Dolphins to lean more heavily on the run this week than they have in recent games, and this benefits Miller; if the Dolphins lean more heavily on the run (and why shouldn’t they? – I mean, do they really want the fans in London to think Ryan Tannehill is what our country has to offer at quarterback?), Miller could go from being “priced right about where he should be” to being a tremendous value at this price.
$5400 – DONALD BROWN vs Jaguars
Thirty-one. That was my football number in high school. It’s also a prime number. It’s also the number of carries Donald Brown had last week. Thirty-one. That’s a lot. And against the Jaguars bottom-ranked run defense, that could be a lot of fantasy points! I do not expect 31 runs (he had 36 touches in all last week!) from Brown, as his legs might fall off if they keep that up. But even 27 or 28 touches should be more than enough for him to quadruple this price.
$3900 – DEANGELO WILLIAMS vs Ravens
I don’t love DeAngelo Williams. Do you? He seems like a nice guy and all – don’t get me wrong. I just don’t love the idea of using him in daily fantasy football. I mean, he’s 31 years old, and whatever Fred Jackson has been drinking to still play like a 27-year-old, he hasn’t been sharing it with DeAngelo. But the Panthers love to run the ball. And they’re not letting Cam run at all as he heals up. And Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert will both be out this Sunday. That leaves DeAngelo as the clear #1 back – the clear 20-carry guy – and at this price, that makes him an excellent play. He’s about as close as you can get to a “sure thing” for quadrupling his salary, and you cannot ask for much more than that.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – KYLE JUSCZYK vs Panthers
Can’t pronounce his name? Don’t worry about it. Don’t even know who he is? Well, I can help you there. Jusczyk is listed as a fullback for the Ravens, but he played more of a TE/H-back role at Harvard, and he is likely to be the one picking up the slack with Dennis Pitta out. Now, I know Owen Daniels is an attractive option on the surface this week, but Owen Daniels is currently dealing with an illness known as “a complete inability to create separation from defenders.” Honestly, I’m unlikely to use either Daniels or Jusczyk this week, as the Panthers D – in spite of what they did to me on Sunday night – is legit. But if I were using one of these guys, I would use Jusczyk. He’s a viable option for your FLEX, with a solid shot at quadrupling his salary.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4700 – GOLDEN TATE vs Jets
You already know I like Stafford this week. It should come as no surprise, then, that I also like one of his wide receivers. While Megatron is obviously the preferred target, I see Tate as the WR far more likely to quadruple his price. I never like paying up for high-priced guys who will be highly-owned, as those high-priced guys have a much harder time quadrupling their salary. If you fade them and they quadruple their salary, you’re still in great shape if you are quadrupling your salary elsewhere; and if you fade them and they have a “good but not elite” game (like Megatron last week – pushing nearly 50% owned in many leagues on DraftKings, and scoring under 15 points), you gain a huge edge on the field. I certainly would not fault you for using Megatron against the Jets this week, but I like Tate as a sneaky, high-upside, low-owned play.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7200 – JORDY NELSON vs Bears
On the other hand, I am always happy to pay up for high-priced guys if I think A) they have a good chance of quadrupling their salary, and B) they will be low-owned. Given the Packers offensive woes, I could see Jordy’s ownership numbers slipping this week (just as his price has slipped – hooray, us!). He has more targets than any WR in the NFL so far, and he’s always a threat for multiple TDs. To be totally honest, I actually like Cobb this week even more than Jordy, but it would be irresponsible for me to recommend him over Jordy, as all logical signs point to Jordy having a bigger game than his less-targeted counterpart. Cobb is more of a gut call on my part, but you are really unlikely to be able to go wrong with either guy!
$5300 – KEENAN ALLEN vs Jaguars
Sorry again, Jaguars. And sorry to any of you who made the reasonable assumption that last week was finally the week to buy low on Keenan. Clearly, it was not. If you were burned by him last week, I encourage you to go to the well once more. If you were not burned by him last week, go to the well a first time. The water should be good.
$5300 – BRANDIN COOKS vs Cowboys
There is an assumption, it seems, that Cooks is going to be inconsistent all year. This assumption presumably stems from his being a rookie, and from his 17-yard Week 2. What that assumption fails to take into account, however, is this: Even in his disappointing Week 2 showing, Cooks had six targets and two carries. He has 24 targets in all, and – between targets and carries – has received 9 opportunities per game. Only 13 WRs have received more opportunities-per-game, and none of those 13 WRs can say Brees is their QB and the Cowboys are their Week 4 opponent (well…I guess other WRs could say that, but they would be lying, so that doesn’t really count). You know who can say that? Brandin Cooks. Kazaam! (Remember Kazaam? Man, what a mess. Let’s start using that as an exclamatory statement. I like it.)
$5100 – VINCENT JACKSON vs Steelers
Time for trivia. Who was the Bucs’ QB last year? Okay, that was an easy one. It was Trent Dilfer, of course. (What? Oh, crap!) Last year, Vincent Jackson averaged 16.15 fantasy points per game when Glennon was under center. That would be good for the 14th best average so far this year. V-Jax is the 25th highest-priced WR this week, in an excellent matchup. Obviously, with V-Jax, you are relying somewhat on the big play, which brings inconsistency into the mix. But if you can stomach the lower floor, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. (A side note: I also like Mike Evans a lot this week – lower floor, but his ceiling is just as high, and his price is only $4200!)
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – NATE WASHINGTON vs Colts
I don’t like this pick any more than you do, but Charlie Whitehurst will have to throw to someone if he starts (heaven help us all), and even though Washington’s production has been absent, his targets have largely been there, and he has still been on the field running pass routes. If you have to punt someone at WR this week, Washington is a great bet to snag five or six short passes in a plus-matchup, in a contest in which the Titans may have to throw a lot.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$3700 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Patriots
Kelce’s targets were down last week. That should be good for his ownership numbers remaining low. Kelce’s snaps were up yet again last week. That should be good for him increasing his production. Kelce is playing my Patriots, whose LBs are all alergic to pass coverage. That makes Kelce a practically unavoidable play.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$4500 – VERNON DAVIS vs Eagles
As a community, daily fantasy footballers tend to have very short-term memory. Vernon Davis did not play last week (as such, he did not have a big game last week). This takes him off the fantasy radar for many daily fantasy footballers. And this means he becomes even more valuable to you! In what is likely to become something of a shootout, Vernon Davis will have 100-yard, 2-TD upside. If reports have his health at 100% come Sunday, this price makes him a tremendous value.
$4400 – ANTONIO GATES vs Jaguars
Last week, Antonio Gates had one target. It was weird. I expect things to go back to normal this week, and I expect most daily fantasy footballers (you know, the ones who chased his stats from Week 2 this last week, in spite of his price going up way too high!) to stay away from him this week. Hello, high-upside and low-ownership; it’s very nice to meet you.
$4000 – ZACH ERTZ vs 49ers
Ertz is the one guy who could take that “Play of the Week” spot from Kelce. I like Kelce’s matchup a little bit more, but each player is similarly talented and similarly priced. I would not blame you for choosing either one – and really, I would not blame you for choosing both! Each guy has a great chance to quadruple his price this week.
$3300 – CHARLES CLAY vs Raiders
Charles Clay may actually be playing injured, which limits his upside. Until I see him create more downfield plays, I see him as more of a cash game play. However, I do see him as a tremendous cash game play! Most of the advice in this column is pretty GPP-specific, but Clay is worth mentioning as a guy who gets very consistent targets, and who is always a threat for a TD. He does not have the same upside as Ertz or Kelce, but he nevertheless has plenty of upside, and his floor is generally very high as well.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS vs Steelers
I’ll be honest: I will probably have zero exposure to Seferian-Jenkins this week. I’d like to see the rookie play a full, healthy game before sticking him in a lineup. At the same time, the guy is an absolute beast. If he’s healthy this week, his ownership numbers should be miniscule, and he has the upside of a top-end TE. With Kelce and Ertz priced so low this week, I probably won’t be pulling the trigger on Seferian-Jenkins, but the dude is a stud, and anyone who does play him will probably be happy they did.