Week 5 DFS Grout: Jennings Stands Out
So, first a little background on myself and my history in Daily Fantasy. I’m apart of TeamKillaB (KillaB2481). Brett Hartfiel is the main mind behind the team, but I’ve been helping him the past two seasons. You can hear Brett talk more about Team KillaB in this RotoGrinders podcast interview with DB730.
Why the DFS team? When you are trying to manage five sites, nearly 4,000 entries, and over $100,000 in volume per week, it gets a little large for one man. That’s why Brett has me (and one other). We all bring our ideas to the table, argue and debate, and from it, our lineups are born. If you have any questions on this, let me know in the comments below! I’m stoked to be bringing this weekly column to RG, on behalf of Team KillaB. Maybe I’ll enlighten more on our team in the coming weeks, but for now, enough of the background info. — Onto the column!
Realistically, you start your lineup each week with the DeMarco Murray’s and Calvin Johnson’s of the world. However, it is those value guys that can really win a large tournament for you. Their low cost allows you to afford the major salary chunks that the studs cost. When they go off at those low salaries, it wins GPPs. It’s these guys whom we will be focusing on, week in and week out: The Fantasy Grout.
Yes it’s just Wednesday morning or early afternoon. But it doesn’t stop there. A lot of these “value” plays come from role changes and injuries, and most of that is solidified later in the week. As such, I will be lurking in the comments, ready and within my rights to amend or out-right change any picks, at any time!
DraftKings’, er, Unique Pricing This Week
One more thing before we get started. We should discuss DraftKings’ pricing this week. I have two possible explanations for how loose pricing is. My first guess is that DraftKings wants to be the top site, and that means drawing in more and more casual fantasy players. These people are just doing this for fun, more or less, and no one thinks having to put Jeremy Kerley in your lineup is fun. Not even Jeremy Kerley’s mom, and she’s an avid player. To appease the masses, they have loosened the pricing, so everyone can have a super-team. For instance, this week, I’m starting Darren Sproles sitting on Jimmy Graham’s shoulders at flex, and I still don’t need a minimum priced running back!
The more plausible explanation is that in an effort to get prices out quick for their big Millionaire Maker event, the normal process of adjusting was skipped. There’s no other reasonable answer for why Kelvin Benjamin would have gone down a grand in price, after 5 for 76 and a TD on 9 targets. Let’s just hope they get their house in order next week (Copyright: Roger Goodell).
Quarterbacks
The threshold to be a Grout QB is $6,500 or less, which makes this week a milestone. Thanks to prices not fully adjusting, this is the last week that Tom Brady isn’t a Grout QB ($6,600). It’s about to get a lot more attractive in these parts!
Leaving Brady off the list, we’ve got 10 choices, or at least 10 teams of which we can pick their QB. Whoever ends up under center in Minnesota, Tennessee, St. Louis and Tampa Bay will all be cheap enough to make the cut. I’m not going to lie, it’s ugly. Still, a RotoGrinder’s got to do what a RotoGrinder’s got to do.
Austin Davis @ PHI – $5,600 – Jeff Fisher is still saying Shaun Hill is his starter when healthy, but if you google “Jeff Fisher Radio Troll,” there’s a gif imbedded on the top hit, Turf Show Times, that just might call that into question. If things change, you might find me in the comments section, doing the same.
As to the pick, it starts with Austin Davis having not been terrible, so far. He went for 327 and three TDs the last time he took the field, and now, with a bye week and a great matchup versus Philadelphia, I expect more not terrible things. His weapons aren’t bad either; with Brian Quick handling the possession stuff, both Kenny Britt and Chris Givens sufficing as deep threats, and Jared Cook lingering in the middle of the field, it could be worse. Yes, “Not terrible,” “aren’t bad,” and “could be worse,” are my ringing endorsements of Austin Davis.
Also, if the cornerstone investing principle is “Buy Low, Sell High,” the fantasy equivalent is this, “Junk time counts.” To quote Meghan Trainor, Austin Davis has got “All the right junk in all the right places.”
Left in the Bucket:
Mike Glennon @ NO – $5,500
Running Backs
With the pricing as it is, there is a cornucopia of attractive running back plays this week, and that permeates from Top-Top price point all the way down to the grimiest of $5,500-or-less running backs. For this week, I might just mentally scratch “FLEX” off your DraftKings roster and replace it with “RB”. There’s just no reason to go feeling around the dark for wide receiver targets when you get this crop.
Rashad Jennings v ATL – $5,500 – It may seem a little obvious to just take the guy at the very top price of the Allowable Running Backs list. Maybe it is, but given that I’d consider him, even at the price point of “All the Dollars,” Jennings being available down here is a steal.
I read precisely nothing into the Giants, off a short week and lambasting the Redskins, giving Jennings a “light” workload of only 13 carries and two targets last Thursday. Before last week, the minimum he touched the ball was 20 times. Now, he draws Atlanta at home, who are the stone nuts running back matchup. If he goes for 100 rush yards, three receptions and a TD, it is a disappointment, and that would be still be 4 PT/$K.
Chris Ivory @ SD – $3,100 – I’ll say this about his price: At least they priced him above the minimum! The Jets’ backfield has been shifting the last couple weeks. Ivory has looked like the best back, and the workload has started to reflect that. In a tough match-up versus Detroit last week, he got 17 of the team’s 23 running back totes, and he was good for 4.9 yards per carry. He has also been the recipient of 10 targets over the last two weeks, which is perfect versus San Diego, who gives up just shy of nine running back receptions per game. I predict he’ll be over 3 PT/$K, on receiving alone, and the rushing is just gravy. Listed at 222 and likely much bigger than that, Ivory gets a lot of gravy.
Khiry Robinson v TB – $3,000 – The real problem starting a running back against the Bucs is that it is so easy to throw on them that running backs take a back seat. Still, the Saints have run it in the red zone a decent amount. In the red zone, the Saints have six passing touchdowns to five rushing touchdowns, and if they get in close, it’s their big back who will be taking it into the end zone. Or, as it will soon be known, Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood.
Left in the Bucket:
Ahmad Bradshaw v BAL – $4,000
Jeremy Hill @ NE – $3,000
Bishop Sankey v CLE – $4,700
Wide Receivers
Unfortunately, most of the real steals come just above the $5,000-or-less wide receiver price limit, but that’s nothing new. When you are assembling a roster entirely comprised those “hold the lineup together” guys, it’s going to be slim pickings.
Kelvin Benjamin v CHI – $4,800 – Did I mention he went had five receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown last week on nine targets, and then his price dropped a thousand dollars? I did? Let me say it again anyway. He had five catches. 76 yards. One TD. Nine Targets. And his price dropped four figures! As if you needed more excuses to roster the guy who is currently ninth in targets per game, he’s playing the team, Chicago, who just gave up 100 yards and two TDs to two different wide receivers, IN THE SAME GAME! I like to make a joke to finish these little paragraphs, but here, this is the best I can come up with … Kelvin Benjamin v CHI – $4,800.
Markus Wheaton @ JAC – $3,300 – This is a safe space, so we can all be honest with each other. Truthfully, I was a little disappointed in Wheaton’s 4 for 57 on six targets last week versus Tampa Bay. While that was slightly over 2 PT/$K at his $4,200 price from last week, it’d be good for nearly three at his price this week. I expect Heath Miller to share a little more of the non-Antonio Brown targets, and with Wheaton, it really only takes one anyway.
Also, I think we need to start being more positive about the Jaguars. All we seem to say is that they are terrible stopping quarterbacks, and running backs, and wide receivers, and tight ends. What about all the positive stuff? They have crazy two-toned helmets! Fancy people pronounce their mascot “Jaguar,” with an extra syllable! They might not be the worst team in Florida! (Well, they probably are.) Oh, I’ve got it. Their owner, Shahid Kahn, has this mustache.
Brandin Cooks v TB – $4,700 – Do you remember what I said the bad thing about owning a running back against Tampa Bay was? Yeah, me too. The nice part about Cooks is his floor. Because he’s the guy getting most of the short stuff, he’s averaging 7.5 targets per game. I expect him to take one of those short ones a long, long way versus this abysmal Tampa secondary. Why wouldn’t I expect that? He ran a 4.33 40 yard dash at the combine. Don’t we have a better word than “dash” when the time is sub-4.35? 40 yard bolt? 40 yard vapor trail? Something.
Left in the Bucket:
Golden Tate v BUF – $4,800
Terrance Williams v HOU – $4,400
Sammy Watkins @ DET – $4,800
Tight End
This is one place where the elites didn’t have their price pushed down. In fact, the top five tight ends, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, and Larry Donnell, are all more expensive than the last time they took the field. Fortunately, that’s all the more reason to splash around down here, at the sub $4,600 price point. Come on. Jump in!
Delanie Walker v CLE – $4,300 – Open up the tab of your standard scoring, season-long league. I’ll wait. Click “Players” and then “TE” and availability of “All”. That guy, third one down. His price dropped $600 after last week, where he was fourth highest scoring tight end for the week. Oh, and he’s third in TE targets per game, averaging eight per contest. Yeah, I’m recommending that guy. If I’m looking for one negative, it is this: if you close your eyes and imagine what a person named “Delanie” looks like, it’s probably a white girl. Other than that though, all signs point to Delanie Walker succeeding as your value tight end for the week.
Left in the Bucket:
Heath Miller @ JAC – $4,000 – Remember, the mustache, Jag-u-ar fans! Remember the mustache.
