Week 5 DraftKings Primer
Welcome to the DraftKings Week 5 Primer, brought to you by RotoGrinders. This column will evolve as more 2014 regular-season data becomes available, and will highlight of a number of our tools that we feel are the best predictors of success on any given week. Now that the first four weeks of the regular season are in the books, most teams are already a quarter of the way through the season and it’s time to start putting value in 2014 numbers. Although a four-game sample size doesn’t seem like much, remember that we’re dealing with a 16-game schedule. Week 4 was full of scoring, and if you missed on the WR trio of Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown, it was tough sledding to get back into the hunt. Week 5 brings a new set of challenges, so let’s dive into it!
Market Watch
We’ll start with a look at our Market Watch page, which tracks the movement of player salaries week-to-week. It’s a great way to get a sense of who is coming off of a good or bad week, but most importantly it allows you to find solid buy-low candidates available below at depressed price tags. I wanted to start with this tool because DraftKings salaries are a little wacky this week, which is likely a result of the Millionaire Maker taking place on Sunday. Salaries were released earlier than usual this week and DraftKings seems to have geared towards softer pricing in an effort to appeal to a larger group of users. As a result, there are more options in play this week, and a large number of players have dropped significantly in price since Week 4.
Drew Brees – The $400 price drop isn’t much considering he’s still the second most expensive QB on the board (third if you count Thursday), but anytime Brees’ salary drops before a home game, I take notice. New Orleans has been flat out awful on the road, losing six straight away from home, including an embarrassing loss in Dallas this past Sunday. However, the Saints are a different animal in their own house. Brees takes on a Tampa Bay defense that has been gashed by the pass this season (third most passing yards allowed per game), and his lack of production at this point isn’t concerning (yet). I still don’t completely understand the road struggles, but Brees remains a safe option if you are paying up at QB.
Running Backs – Since there is so much to get to at this position, it warrants it’s own section.
Chris Ivory – His price has fallen $2,200 all the way to $3,100, just $100 over the minimum. He’s not someone I’ll be rostering in cash games, but the GPP appeal is pulling me in. He’ll likely find his way onto a handful of my tournament teams.
Ahmad Bradshaw and Khiry Robinson – I’m not really sure why, but both of their prices have plummeted $1,800. At $4K and $3K, both of them are very solid $/point plays.
Rashad Jennings – Here’s the guy I’ll be targeting most heavily at RB in cash games this week. Jennings’ price has dropped $1,000 after a slow statistical night on Thursday against Washington. He was playing on a short week (just four days after receiving 34 carries against Houston), so it’s understandable why the Giants didn’t deliver him a heavy workload. The Falcons just got toasted by the Vikings RBs; don’t get cute here, make sure you have some exposure to Jennings. More on him later.
DeMarco Murray – An $800 price drop after becoming the first RB in Cowboys history since Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett to record four straight 100-yard games? Yeah, I don’t get it either. Murray would be the top pick in season-long drafts if they took place today and he’ll likely make it five straight 100+ yard games against the Texans this week. He deserves to be the top priced back on DraftKings, but he sits fourth this week (with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte in front of him).
Le’Veon Bell – Bell is in a very good spot this week against the Jaguars, and his price has fallen $100 from last week (when he was still under-priced). If the Steelers control this one like they should, Bell will get his.
LeSean McCoy – His price has actually climbed $800 after two consecutive games with no more than 2.2 FPs on DraftKings. McCoy will benefit from Lane Johnson’s return and I actually think he has a nice game here, but I cannot justify paying his $7,800 price tag considering the numerous options available below him.
Wide Receivers – If you thought there were too many RB price drops to exploit, there are even more options at WR. It’s going to be a fun week to build GPP lineups on DraftKings.
Jordan Matthews – His price has dropped more than any other WR ($2,000), and he now sits at $3,500. By no means is he in play for cash games, but if you’re rolling out 15-20 GPP lineups, he’s worth sprinkling in.
Andrew Hawkins – A player with double-digit targets in each of his games has just dropped $1,400 in price? More on him in the Value Town section.
Allen Robinson – Another rookie WR with size available for cheap, Robinson’s price has dove $1,400 down to the minimum $3,000. With Cecil Shorts already ruled out for Sunday’s game, Robinson has a good chance at at least matching his target total from last week (seven), with upside for more. If Marquis Lee doesn’t return Sunday, Robinson could be a potential cash-game punt play. Ace Sanders’ status is worth tracking as well.
Kelvin Benjamin – Keeping the rookie theme going, Benjamin’s price has dropped $1,000 to $4,800. That’s far too cheap considering the upside he’s shown thus far, and he’s actually been a consistent producer to this point in the season.
Victor Cruz – After two straight 100+ yard receiving games, it’s odd to see his price fall $1,000. Take the discount against a very poor Atlanta defense that is very capable of being beat deep.
Markus Wheaton – Sure, I’ll take the GPP plunge on Wheaton thanks to his matchup with the Jaguars secondary and $900 discount. The Jacksonville defense does not have much talent at cornerback or safety, and will be one of the best defenses to target with QBs/WRs throughout the year.
Jeremy Maclin – Coming off of a game where he caught just five passes, he might be overlooked with a number of viable options in his price range. The good news is that Maclin saw 15 targets in Sunday’s game against the 49ers, and remains the Eagles top receiving target. Exploit his $700 price drop.
Brandin Cooks – He’s going to have a very nice season, especially in home games with the way the Saints have been trending. He was too cheap last week at $5,300, but the value is even better here at $4,700.
Tight End – And the value just keeps pouring in…
Antonio Gates – After a 3-for-30 game against the Jaguars, Gates could very well be overlooked this week. His price has fallen $900 to a silly $3,500, and it’s not like the Chargers are going to deploy a run-heavy approach against the Jets. Gates should bounce back on Sunday.
Owen Daniels – Dennis Pitta’s injury has opened up opportunity for Daniels to roam, and this would be a nice week for him to blow up with his price falling $800. He’s a guy I’ll have mixed into some GPP lineups, although I’m not considering him in cash games.
Travis Kelce – After his Monday night explosion, he’ll be one of the most popular plays at TE now that he’s priced at the minimum $3K. I can’t really explain the $700 drop in price, but it almost forces you to have some exposure to him.
Delanie Walker – The Browns have been gashed by Jimmy Graham already this season, and Walker sees a very similar usage rate, including in the red zone. Regardless of who is at QB, they’ll be looking Walker’s way.
Greg Olsen – His $500 drop almost makes sense after his down game against the Ravens. Olsen is a key cog (along with Kelvin Benjamin) for Cam Newton and that will stay consistent week-to-week. Look for him to get back into the action with his former team coming to town.
Let’s now take a look at a few things that stand out from our Targets page, where you’ll find a breakdown of touches, targets, red-zone targets and percentage of workload, among other stats. It’s an invaluable tool that can help you find players who are in the best positions to succeed; it’s no secret that you want players on your fantasy team who are heavily involved in the offense, especially those that are also key cogs in the red-zone.
T.Y. Hilton – Would you have guessed that Hilton is currently fifth among WRs in total targets through four weeks? Heading into this season, I would have bet the house on that not being the case, but he’s been utilized differently this year compared to seasons past. His target count week-to-week looks like this: 11, 11, 6, 10. In an offense that boasts a large number of viable playmakers, it’s surprising to see him so involved on a consistent basis. The great thing about this is that Hilton still has the big-play upside and if he’s seeing high-volume targets regularly, it will not be long before he hits on one. The Ravens defense is ranked 24th in terms of opponents passing yards, and has already struggled with lesser passing attacks this season (Cleveland, Cincinnati).
Emmanuel Sanders – We all knew he’d benefit from Peyton Manning throwing him the rock, but I don’t think many people expected him to be involved at this level. He’s currently third among WR’s in targets per game with 11, which equates to 30% of Peyton’s attempts thus far. He’s also seen four red-zone targets through three games, which is a nice bonus for someone not thought of as a red-zone threat (Wes Welker’s presence will likely eat into his looks near the goal-line). Patrick Peterson will likely spend the entire game defending the left side of the field (he’s played 177 snaps at LCB, while seeing just 10 snaps on the right side of the field), but the good news is that the Denver WRs move around in formations quite a bit. Sanders will have to deal with Peterson at times, but I still really like his Week 5 outlook considering the target volume and $5,100 price tag on DraftKings.
Martellus Bennett – Bennett has clearly earned the trust of Jay Cutler, especially in the red zone. He’s second among TEs in terms of total red-zone targets (eight), and is tied for second with Julius Thomas in red-zone targets per game (two). When Cutler throws in close, 29.63% of those looks go to the big tight end. Outside of Jimmy Graham, Bennett leads all TEs in total targets (38), targets per game (9.5), and is third in POW-Tgt (24.36%). The matchup with Carolina isn’t ideal, but he’s shown enough this season to warrant strong consideration this week at $6,000.
We’ll conclude the priming with a look at this week’s Vegas Odds. They don’t tell the whole story, but studying these closely throughout the week (including as they move) will give you an edge over your opponents. Our NFL Vegas Odds page provides a full breakdown of each game on the schedule, and also includes a player props section.
Falcons at Giants (NYG -4.5, 49.5 O/U) – This one has the highest Week 5 total, but I’m not sure it’s a game I’d want to stack with both sides. I am a fan of the Falcons aerial attack in general, but they face a very tough Giants secondary that boasts two impressive corners in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara. Trumaine McBride has played surprisingly well to this point and Antrel Rolle is an above-average safety, so I don’t think it’s a week to heavily target the Atlanta passing game considering the matchup with the Giants on the road. Julio Jones is a nice GPP option that will be under-owned because of the steep price tag ($8,000), but I don’t see any of the Falcons as legitimate cash-game plays. As far as the Giants side goes, that’s a different story. I’ve mentioned Rashad Jennings already and he’ll get a closer look in the Value Town section, but I’m fine with a variety of options in the Giants pass attack. Eli Manning is reasonable for tournaments at $7,500, but I’ll be going a bit safer in cash games. Victor Cruz at $5,800 looks to be a bargain and I’m also a fan of Rueben Randle for $3,900, especially in tournaments. Larry Donnell is in play as well at $5,700, since he’s been heavily targeted to this point in the season and showed his red-zone prowess this past Thursday.
Vikings at Packers (GB -9, 47.5 O/U) – Since I haven’t touched on the Thursday night game at all, I figured this was a good spot to do so. I’ll start by saying my Thursday league strategy (a large majority of the time) is to avoid each and every Thursday night player and let my opponents fall into that trap. It doesn’t always work out, but it’s proven to be the +EV play. Especially on a late-swap site, you don’t even have to put any thought into the lineup you construct on or before Thursday; you can edit it freely as Sunday kickoff approaches. I’ll be very aggressive with my selections on Thursday and will adapt my strategy based on injury news and the success (or lack thereof) for the Thursday night players. If the Thursday night game happens to be a shootout I missed out on, I’ll probably go with a high-ceiling/low-floor approach to make up ground. If the Thursday players crash and burn, I’ll likely employ a safer strategy if the field targeted the game heavily.
This week is a little tricky, as there are some viable targets on both sides, but I’ll likely play the fade as usual. The Green Bay defense could be a very nice target if it turns out that Christian Ponder ends up starting for Teddy Bridgewater, considering the short practice week and the Pack having their home crowd behind them. As far as tournaments go, I’ll be sprinkling in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb sparingly. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB and Nelson is the league leader in targets, so it’s hard to avoid him completely. Randall Cobb is a nice target at $6,900, but there are so many options with similar (or greater) upside priced below him. On the Minnesota side, I’ll be limiting my exposure running game as long as Asiata and McKinnon are in a relative timeshare. The price on both is very reasonable on DraftKings, and Asiata could prove to be one of the biggest traps of Week 5. $4,700 seems like a reasonable asking price for him, but he’s so touchdown dependent that I can’t justify pulling the trigger outside of a GPP lineup or two. McKinnon is the upside play at $3,400, but he’s by no means a cash-game play at this point, especially considering the immense value available this week. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are also in play at their current DK price tags, but it’s very hard to trust either due to the weak nature of the Vikings passing game.
Value Town!
Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. Here I’ll highlight a few players with price tags that don’t add up to their level of talent and/or matchup. You won’t find the Peyton Mannings of the world here, but rather players towards the bottom of the salary chart that have the upside to produce at an elite level. Most of these plays are geared towards GPPs, but some of them will be playable across all game types if the price is right.
Quarterback – Mike Glennon
Things weren’t looking good for Tampa Bay as the two-minute warning struck in the fourth quarter, but the Bucs were able to force the Steelers into punting with about a minute left in the game and Glennon took advantage. His late touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson left him with a respectable 302 yards and 2 TDs on the day, and he’ll look to build on that against a Saints defense that was just thrashed by the Cowboys. Tampa’s running game clearly doesn’t warrant the type of respect that DeMarco Murray does, but Glennon will likely be forced into airing it out 40+ times once again and I see that being enough for him to pay off his modest price tag. Rob Ryan’s defense has had little success stopping opposing QBs, as they are currently 28th in pass defense through the first four games. Pairing Glennon with Vincent Jackson is a viable GPP strategy, but if you want to look even deeper, Louis Murphy (who was big on the Bucs final drive, and saw 11 total targets) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (who played 71-of-71 snaps in Week 4) are very sneaky targets. Mike Evans is expected to miss 2-3 weeks, which will open up opportunity for both Murphy and Seferian-Jenkins.
Also Receiving Consideration – Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer, Austin Davis
Running Back – Rashad Jennings
After Jennings rough Week 4, his price has plummeted back to just $5,500, and it’s time to pounce. His struggles in Week 4 are understandable; he had picked up 34 carries just four days prior to the game, and Washington’s run defense has looked very solid early in the season. The Giants also got out to a big lead and were able to work in Andre Williams at that point. Jennings Week 5 opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, just allowed over 100 yards from scrimmage to both Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon this past Sunday, and it’s clear that defense is porous. Jennings should be the focal point here and with his pass-catching ability, he’s my favorite $/point cash game play at the RB position on DraftKings this week.
Running Back – Khiry Robinson
I was very surprised to scroll to the bottom of the RB pool and see Robinson’s name at the very bottom of the list. $3,000 for a starter in a strong offense? Sign me up. Robinson has yet to post a big stat-line since Mark Ingram’s injury, but his price is far too low and the opportunity should be there yet again this week. The good news is that Robinson was able to turn ten touches into more than 100 yards from scrimmage in Week 4, but the Saints were playing from behind most of the night and were forced into going pass-heavy. Up next in Week 5 is a Tampa Bay defense that just held Le’Veon Bell in check (19 carries for 63 yards), but I’m not letting that sway me from using Robinson this week. Gerald McCoy being back in the fold for Tampa doesn’t help Robinson’s outlook, but the price/opportunity here is a little too good for me to pass up. If New Orleans controls this game like they should, he should see twice as many carries as he did in Week 4. Robinson is a viable target in any format at minimum price.
Also Receiving Consideration – Ahmad Bradshaw ($4,000 is an absolute bargain), Chris Ivory ($3,100 is a price point that will force me to roll him out in a few tournament lineups)
Wide Receiver – Allen Robinson
I’m not sure why, but Robinson’s price has fallen to the minimum on DraftKings. With Cecil Shorts already ruled out for Sunday’s game with Pittsburgh, it’s looking like Robinson and Allen Hurns should see most of the work at WR, although Marquis Lee and Ace Sanders could return this week. Regardless, the $3K price tag is simply too good to pass up now that Robinson has Blake Bortles at his disposal, a QB that is much more willing to throw the ball downfield. To be fair, Robinson didn’t do much in Bortles’ first start; he needed garbage time to rack up his pedestrian five catches for 38 yards. His seven targets was second on the team in Week 5, so Bortles seems to be aware of Robinson’s size/leaping ability and as far as pure talent goes, he’s the best healthy WR Bortles has. Allen Hurns is also going to be talked about quite a bit heading into Week 5, but I prefer Robinson considering the $1,500 price difference between the two.
Wide Receiver – Andrew Hawkins
I could not believe my eyes when I saw Hawkins priced at $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s seen double-digit targets in each game this season and remains the #1 WR in Cleveland, so I’m going to have quite a bit of exposure to Hawkins this week. Taking the price tag into account, I think this breakdown should sway you towards the speedy WR: Hawkins trails only Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders in targets per game among WR’s (Hawkins is averaging 10.67), and he trails only Nelson in terms of percentage of workload (32.99% for Hawkins, 37.98% for Nelson). Hawkins is a premier cash-game play at this price, but I’ll have exposure to him across all game formats.
There are numerous receivers at ridiculously low price tags, so I’m going to through a few more quickly here. Emmanuel Sanders, who I discussed in the Targets section, sits at just $5,100 this week. Kelvin Benjamin, who has lived up to the hype so far this year, is criminally underpriced against a Chicago team that was just dominated by Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. To be fair, Cam Newton is certainly not Aaron Rodgers, but the $4,800 price tag on Benjamin is too good to pass up. DeAndre Hopkins has caught a TD in three of four games and is coming into his own despite less-than-stellar QB play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brandin Cooks also looks like the real deal and should bounce back nicely against Tampa Bay at home; $4,700 represents extreme value for him. Looking further up the salary chart, Jeremy Maclin, Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen are steals in the mid-$5K range.
Tight End – Travis Kelce
I’m not one to put too much stock into one big game, but Kelce looked great on Monday night. The fact that he’s priced at the minimum $3K this week forces my hand here. I don’t love the matchup with San Francisco and Kelce will be very up and down this season with the style of the Kansas City offense, but I’ll want some exposure to the freak athlete at minimum price. His main competition for targets lies with Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles, so it’s not like he’s surrounded by a ton of talent. The problem is that Kelce’s ownership percentage for Week 5 took a huge spike with his Monday night performance. If you’re looking to go against-the-grain and want a minimum priced TE, Austin Seferian-Jenkins played every snap for Tampa Bay this past weekend and he should benefit from the injury to Mike Evans, which is expected to keep the first round pick out of action for two or three weeks.
Tight End – Heath Miller
He blew up this past weekend with 10-85-1 against Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defense, and steps into another prime matchup this week against the Jaguars. His opportunities will likely not be as plentiful in Week 5, but the Jags remain among the worst in the league at defending TEs (Jacksonville ranks 30th out of 32 against TEs, per our Defense vs. Position page) and the $4K price tag is a bargain. Miller’s target numbers have been relatively solid week-to-week considering his slow start prior to the meeting with Tampa Bay, so I like him this week as a safe cash game play. The Jaguars defensive backs are also a sieve, so any one (or two.. or three) of the Pittsburgh pass-catchers could have a big week.
Defense/Special Teams – San Diego Chargers
After a cakewalk in Week 4 against Jacksonville, the Chargers defense remains a very safe target against Geno Smith and the Jets. If you’ve watched Smith and company this season, it’s pretty clear that turnovers will remain an issue, and the lack of talent in his receiving corps doesn’t hurt the Chargers outlook either. Add in the fact that the Jets are traveling across the country this week to play in San Diego, and you have an elite cash-game option at $3,100.