Week 5: In Which He Couldn’t Cover Himself
His senior year of high school, he led the state of Oklahoma in receiving yards. And receiving touchdowns. And receptions. He was also a darn good cornerback. I helped coach that team, and one time I asked him if he felt he was better at wide receiver or at cornerback. His response went something like this: “I’m pretty sure the only person in the state I couldn’t cover is me.”
He was also about 5’10”, with marginal speed and marginal athletic talent. Part of what made him as good as he was, of course, was the amount of hard work he put into football. But another part of what made him so good was the absurd amount of confidence he had.
I’ve spent time around a lot of high-caliber athletes, and almost all of the best athletes I have spent time around have possessed that same high level of confidence – that level of confidence that leads them to believe they are, truly, the absolute best.
This idea of ‘confidence increasing one’s capacity for success’ is not confined to athletics, either. Stephen King once said, “Fear is at the root of most bad writing.” When I write fiction, I do so with the absolute assurance that I have the capacity to be the best, and I try to allow this confidence to lead me forward.
And when I pick teams for daily fantasy football, I do the same thing. Or, at least, I try…
Every week, on DraftKings, I make one “optimal team” that I put into every GPP I am entering. I then make a second-optimal team and a few other potential-optimal teams. Some weekends, these four or five teams are all I use (entering just one or two teams – the “optimal team,” and at times the “second-optimal team – at the higher buy-ins, and proceeding to enter multiple teams as the buy-ins go down). Other weekends, I’ll also mix and match my favorite plays of the weekend to create a number of high-upside dart throws for the lower buy-in, large-field tournaments. But always, that “optimal team” is my flagship, so to speak.
Last week, I created my “optimal team” on Tuesday. I created this team with very little research; I created this team, simply, because it stood out to me as a nearly perfect team. I decided, upon creating that team, to keep it as my optimal team, no matter what.
The team looked like this:
Matt Stafford
Lamar Miller
Eddie Lacy
Donald Brown
Randall Cobb
Alshon Jeffery
Golden Tate
Travis Kelce
Dolphins D
I held strong until Friday. Then, I started changing things. The Lions D was a better play than the Dolphins (net loss on this change: 10 points). Fewer people would be on Cutler, and he had the same ceiling as Stafford (net loss on this change: 6 points). Michael Crabtree was the same price as Cobb, and a lot of people whose opinions I respect liked Crabtree a lot more than Cobb (net loss on this change: 24 points). Another person whose opinion I respect had brought up the fact that, with all the attention on Steve Smith Sr., the Panthers were probably going to game plan to take him away at all costs; this gave me the bright idea of dropping from Golden Tate (my Play of the Week at WR last week – and a guy who ended up returning 5x his salary!) to Torrey Smith (net loss on this change: 9 points). Basically, I began to second-guess everything I had put in place (and felt great about) at the beginning of the week, and instead of scoring a more-than-respectable 179 with my optimal team (which would have been good enough for the top 10% in just about every GPP), I ended up with a semi-embarrassing “optimal team” that barely cracked the top 50% of most GPPs.
I have a buddy who just started playing daily fantasy football this season; he is currently a micro-stakes player, but I expect that to change as his bankroll continues to grow. He’s very good at fantasy football, and he has been very good at daily fantasy football so far. Last Friday, he and I talked about some of the changes he was wanting to make to his team based on the things he was reading/hearing from people he and I respect. And I told him, “These guys know their stuff, for sure, but you know what? You know your stuff too. I’d say stick to your own research.”
My point in all this? You need to have a research strategy! Perhaps that research strategy each week will include certain articles on RotoGrinders, or perhaps it will include the valuable thoughts others are sharing in the RotoGrinders forum each week. Perhaps your research strategy will include the aggregate rankings on Fantasy Pros, or the rankings of the “most accurate experts” on Fantasy Pros. Perhaps your research will include Pro Football Focus’ premium stats, or perhaps you will log into Game Rewind and watch the games you were not able to watch on Sunday. Whatever it is, though, you need a research strategy! – you need something about which you can feel good, something in which you can feel confident.
And then? You need to stick to your guns. What if you’ve done your research and put together a team you love, only to discover that someone whose opinion you respect does not like a player you picked? Who cares! Sure, this person whose opinion you respect knows their stuff, but guess what? You know your stuff too!
Have confidence in your picks, my friend. Have confidence in your team. Stick to your guns. And I’ll do the same. We’ll both be happy we did.
TWO IMPORTANT NOTES ON THIS WEEK’S PICKS:
1) I’m typing this on a plane, as I fly to Boston to hang with my folks for the weekend. I also slept only one hour last night. Why? Firstly, because I was finishing some freelance writing work that needed to be done before I left. Secondly, because I was wrestling with my research, and with my Optimal Team. I finished putting together my Optimal Team – a team about which I feel absolutely tremendous (and which I will hopefully not change over the weekend!) – at about 5:30 a.m. I had to leave the house at 6:30 a.m. to reach my flight on time. As such, I will tone down my typically overlong descriptions and explanations of each player; I’ll still give you the facts and stats behind each pick, but I’ll leave out the more-miss-than-hit attempts at humor you will usually find down there. Maybe that will enable me to get a bit of sleep before a long, fun weekend.
2) This week is DraftKings’ “Millionaire Maker” tournament: 92,000 entries, with $1 million to first place. It should be noted that the prize structure is extremely top-heavy. Like…ridiculously top-heavy (as in: typically, the top 20% in a GPP get paid out; in this tournament, it’s more like 16%; furthermore, you have to finish in the top 8% just to double your entry fee, as opposed to normal GPPs, where – again – the top 20% cuts it. So basically, there is no need to shoot for any semblance of “safety” with your teams in this tournament. Sure, you want a solid floor if you can get it, but do you really want an Edelman-type of player in a tournament like this? – a guy who is usually a solid bet for 15 to 20 points, but really has no shot at scoring more than that? Absolutely not! Someone is going to enter a team in this tournament that will notch about 30 points from every single position player, and will win $1 million as a result. Will that someone be you? It could be! Sure, it’s a long shot…but it could be. Because of the unique situation this weekend presents, the picks this week will veer slightly away from what we typically do here. While we usually aim to find guys who are a fairly safe bet to triple their salary, with a shot at quadrupling their salary (and giving you an overall score of 200 – and a win in most any GPP – as a result), we will instead be using this week to look for guys who have the talent, matchup, and opportunity to be able to put up a 30-point day! A lot has been said already about the low prices on DraftKings this week. You could waste time and energy complaining about it, or you can realize that this makes it easier than ever to fit in a full team of players with 30-point potential! If you can build an 8-man team at 30 points apiece, you have 240 points…and then, you simply need to cross your fingers and say a Hail Mary and hope you got lucky and picked the right defense that will win you a million dollars.
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are some of the players at each position with the best chance of throwing up 30 points this weekend and carrying you to $1 million!
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5200 – BLAKE BORTLES vs Steelers
“But…what about the Steel Curtain?” Yeah – no such thing. The Steelers’ secondary is beat to bits. They have been one of the worst passing defenses on the season…and one of the few passing defenses that have been worse than them is the Jaguars. This game is likely to be a shootout, and between Bortles’ arms and legs, he is a very safe bet to quadruple his salary. After that, 30 points is not far out of reach. His potential for 30 points is nearly as high this week as any of the other QBs listed below, and you will save a large amount of salary space by rocking him in your lineup.
Five More Guys – Other Top 30-Point Plays of the Week:
$8700 – ANDREW LUCK vs Ravens
Two things work in your favor choosing Luck: 1) People continue to overlook Luck, as if he is simply lucking his way into these big games (“Good one, JM!” – “Thanks, buddy!”), and 2) People still think the Ravens have a fearsome defense. Luck is the #1 fantasy QB so far this season, and he may very well finish the season #1 as well. And while the Ravens provide some resistance to the run, their secondary is torchable. This is another game that should be high-scoring, and Luck should benefit in a big way.
$7600 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Redskins
I like this pick less than most others seem to like it this week, but it is worth mentioning nonetheless. The Redskins have shown decent resistance to the run this year, and their pass defense continues to be a weak spot. While I do not expect Russell to have to air it out, he is still a good bet to rustle up some points (Ha! – did it again!) while the game remains close. Thirty points may be out of reach, but he also offers one of the highest floors of all the guys on this QB list.
$7500 – ELI MANNING vs Falcons
Like Luck, people tend to overlook the lesser Manning. Maybe Peyton casts a long shadow over both these guys, but while it’s tough to trust Eli with how mistake-prone he has been over the years (and with how awful he looked in the preseason and in Week 1), this new offensive system was put in place specifically to lessen those mistakes. This passing offense – in fact, this offense as a whole – has looked really good over the last three games, and Manning has been a part of that. Once again: this is a game that shapes up to be a shootout, and the Falcons can be burned by the weapons Eli has at his disposal.
$7400 – BEN ROETHLISBERGER vs Jaguars
For the third week in a row, I am recommending a QB against the Jags – and this time, it does not come with the caveat that was in place the last two weeks for Luck and Rivers (that they may get out to such a big lead that passing is no longer necessary). I fully expect this to be a close game – seriously (that’s not me trying to be funny). And that will mean plenty of time for Big Ben to attack the weak Jaguars secondary.
$7000 – PHILIP RIVERS vs Jets
Wait…what? The pricing in some areas on DraftKings is downright silly this week, and in no place is this more true than with Philip Rivers. Rivers has been a Top 5 QB this season. He should remain a Top 5 QB this week against a team that cannot be run on, but that can be passed on (and passed on, and passed on). And he only costs $7k. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5500 – RASHAD JENNINGS vs Falcons
I want to not believe in Jennings. I want to pretend that Andre Williams will take carries away from him (no, not because the Giants lightened his load on a Thursday night game, four days after he’d had 34 touches, but instead because Jennings has never had over 135 carries in his career, and the Giants know they need to manage his reps), and I would even like to believe that the Falcons are a tougher matchup than you might think, as Pro Football Focus has rated them as a middling run defense, rather than rating them as downright awful. I want to believe Jennings is not actually talented enough to dominate the fantasy scoreboard…but all evidence points to my beliefs being wrong. Even as the Giants strive to lighten Jennings’ load, you should still be able to bank on 20 touches. And the Falcons have been the worst team against the run so far this year – Pro Football Focus ratings be damned. At $5.5k, with the potential to be a Top 5 back this week (and the corresponding potential to rack up 30 points), he’s almost too good to pass up. Yes, he’ll be highly owned. Yes, fading him is a viable strategy. But there is a very real chance he scores 30 points, and if he does so at this price, you want to be on board.
Five More Guys – Other Top 30-Point Plays of the Week:
$7800 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Rams
LeSean McCoy did not “lose it.” He still has it. What he no longer has, however, is the best offensive line in football. This week – with Lane Johnson finally back, and with a matchup against a bottom-barrel run defense – I expect Shady to have a big game. I would not blame you for leaving him off your roster (after all, his price has not exactly gone down to reflect recent performance!), but I will have some exposure to him this week. There are enough awesome WR options in the $5k range that I’ll be paying up for at least one running back on each team (at least one! – yes, that means in some spots I’ll be paying up for two high-end running backs), and I like Shady among the group of guys with a good shot at 30 points.
$7500 – DEMARCO MURRAY vs Texans
Well. Really. What is there to say? This guy has been the Cowboys’ offense AND defense so far. The O-line has been awesome, the threat of Romo-to-Dez keeps some running lanes open, and Murray has done the rest. Oh, and it also helps that the Texans have one of the worst run defenses in football. Thirty points is not far out of reach – not far out of reach at all.
$7300 – LE’VEON BELL vs Jaguars
I’ll be honest with you: I will be largely fading Bell this week. I think this game plays out one of two ways: 1) It’s a close game throughout, and Bell gets fewer carries as the Steelers turn to the pass; 2) The Steelers blow the doors off the Jags, and they bring in Blount to close out the game and keep Bell healthy. I could be totally wrong, but I don’t think Bell will have the big game most are expecting. Twenty points is almost a given, but on a week like this – when 30 should be the goal – I don’t think Bell is your guy. He has to be mentioned here, because you need to know that all the numbers point in his direction. But…yeah. I won’t be on board.
$7200 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Redskins
Now, here’s a guy that others will not be using! He doesn’t catch passes? Fine! He does score touchdowns. Lots of them. You cannot use Marshawn and Russell on the same team, of course, but you could certainly justify squeezing one of them on your roster. When the Seahawks get in close, they’ll run with Lynch to score. And I expect them to be in close several times in this game. A hundred yards and a pair of touchdowns would get Lynch to 25 points (remember: 3 point bonus on DraftKings for a 100-yard game), and an additional couple catches with the subsequent yards could push this man up to 30. (Plus, it’s just more fun to be hoping for a player to do something for you on Monday night than to be hoping for players to NOT do something!)
$4700 – BISHOP SANKEY vs Browns
When I was a kid, my dad told me that some old-school NFL players would take ballet lessons during the offseason to improve their balance, body control, and – presumably – ability to look good in tights. Maybe this is what Wisenhunt feels Bishop Sankey is missing, with all this talk about the rookie’s “footwork” not being right. I don’t know – it’s a theory. It may or may not be right. But in any case, I expect Sankey to get 15 carries this week. And maybe another 5 targets. His snaps continue to go up each week, and I feel this is the week he breaks out. If you are only putting together one roster this week, leave Sankey off of it. But if you are putting in multiple lineups, I would risk Sankey on at least one. The upside – via the paths of talent and matchup – is tremendous. If this is the week he gets the ball, 30 points is well within reach.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4800 – KELVIN BENJAMIN vs Bears
He’s near the top of the NFL in targets. And catches. And yards. And touchdowns. And he costs $4.8k. Need more? He’s playing a very poor secondary. He’s scored all three of his touchdowns from 25 or more yards out, which means he has not even tapped into his (6’5”, 240 pound) potential as a red zone threat. As with Rashad Jennings, you fade him at your own risk. He’ll be highly owned, but how much does it really hurt those who own him if he has a mediocre (4 catches, 60 yards, 10 fantasy points) game? Because he costs so little, there are still plenty of places for those who – on the off chance it happens – miss with Benjamin, as they’ll have plenty to spend in other areas. But if he goes off and you do not have him, it will be tough for you to make up ground with the salary disadvantage you have given yourself!
Five More Guys – Other Top 30-Point Plays of the Week:
$7400 – DEMARYIUS THOMAS vs Cardinals
Scared of Patrick Peterson? Don’t be! Who could say why, but he is having a down year. A very down year. Like, so far, he has graded out as one of the worst corners in football. Now, I do expect Peterson to turn it around, but I also suspect that the Broncos used the bye week to figure out ways to get the ball into the hands of their best weapon. I expect Demaryius to have a really big game here – to have, in fact, the best game of all the WRs priced over $7k. (A side note: I like Emmanuel Sanders a lot, too. Even at his ultra-low price of $5.1k, some will be off him on the assumption he is not a threat for TDs. You know what? Sanders is in the top 10 in red zone targets this season! I have at least a couple teams this week on which I am using both Demaryius AND Sanders, without even rolling with Peyton at QB. I like these guys to feast, and there is enough food on the table for each of them to notch 30 points this week.)
$5900 – VINCENT JACKSON vs Saints
I know, I know, you hate rolling out a player who has such a low floor. I do too! But the Glennon-to-VJax connection is real, and the Saints are a team against which it can click. This game should be a high-scoring affair, with the Bucs having to pass a lot. With Mike Evans out, this leaves plenty of targets for Vincent. Sure, he could end up with a 4-34-0 line, but he could also end up with 7-160-2. I won’t use him on my core teams, but he will be all over the place on my other teams. I like this to be a good week for the boys from Tampa.
$5600 – JEREMY MACLIN vs Rams
Maclin has become a target monster. Not a catch monster, mind you…but a target monster. There are very few players in the NFL who have as much big-play upside as Maclin, and he gets as many targets as any player in football. Big-play upside with lots of short, intermediate, and deep passes, against a poor pass defense? Yeah, that adds up to as good a chance as anybody of notching 30 points. For this price? It’s tough to pass that up!
$3900 – RUEBEN RANDLE vs Falcons
There are a few more guys in the $5k to $6k range who could also be listed and detailed (Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, just to name a few.), but I want to also give you a couple low-priced guys with a shot at 30 points. Obviously, these final two guys have a lower floor than the WRs listed above, but I really like each of their ceilings this week. Starting out: Rueben Randle. Randle is among the NFL leaders in red zone targets, and has also been among the NFL leaders in overall targets over the last three games. He and Eli are clicking, and in a game that should be a shootout against a poor pass defense, Randle’s upside is immense. If you are looking to save salary at WR, he is one of the best bets to approach that 30 point mark.
$3300 – MARKUS WHEATON vs Jaguars
I love Wheaton this week. Wheaton does not offer the target upside of anyone else on this list (everyone else listed is pulling in 8 to 12 targets per game, while Wheaton is likelier to settle into the 6 to 7 range), but he has HUGE big-play potential, and he is facing the pass defense ranked dead-last in the NFL. His potential to break off a couple big plays is as high as anyone in the league. Take a look at him at this far-too-low price. I’ll let you in on a secret: I have Wheaton on my Optimal Team.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$7600 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Buccaneers
I am predicting nine catches this week for Jimmy, for 114 yards and two touchdowns as the Saints aim to get their offense back on track in the Superdome. Will I be right? We’ll see. But I’m going to be on board just in case. There is not a lot of analysis required here, and I’m trying to ditch my attempts at humor at the moment, so we will leave it at this: he’s the best tight end in the NFL, and he’s playing a poor defense. The end.
Five More Guys – Other Top 30-Point Plays of the Week:
$5700 – LARRY DONNELL vs Falcons
Early in the year, I ignored Donnell. I had not had an opportunity to watch him play, and experts (both of the fantasy and of the NFL variety) who had watched him play could only talk about how slow he was. Yeah. Then I watched him play. Those hands? And the way he uses that big body? This guy is for real. Yes, his price has gone up, but it is not outside the realm of possibilities that he could replicate (or at least come close to replicating) his game from last Thursday night. Donnell has as much upside this week as anyone at the TE position.
$5300 – GREG OLSEN vs Bears
Before his dud last week, Olsen was notching about 20 points per game. As a tight end. And he is priced at $5.3k. And he is playing a poor pass D. And he’s one of Cam’s favorite targets. You do not need to know more than that!
$4300 – DELANIE WALKER vs Browns
Wait, he’s priced at what? You gotta be kidding me! There are two tight ends in this game worth using (I’ll give you zero guesses as to who the other one is – I’ll just tell you; it’s Jordan Cameron), but I like Delanie a little bit more. With the way this could turn into a running battle and the unpredictable nature of Jake Locker’s arm, this is a riskier pick than others on this list, as Delanie’s floor is somewhat low. But his ceiling is also 30 points – especially against this defense – and his price is ridiculously low.
$3500 – ANTONIO GATES vs Jets
I love Gates this week! He’s my primary “stack with Rivers” option this week, as I think the Chargers are going to purpose to get him involved after back-to-back down weeks. We saw in Week 2 what Gates can do against a good pass defense; now, he’s playing a poor pass defense. We have seen, of course, just how low his floor can be, but it’s almost impossible to find a higher ceiling at this price.
$3000 – TRAVIS KELCE vs 49ers
Yes, I said it’s ALMOST impossible to find a higher ceiling than Gates’ at this price. Look, we’ve found it! Kelce is, of course, in danger of putting up a lower-than-expected total this week, as the 49ers are excellent against tight ends. But you’d still start Gronk or Jimmy at this price against the 49ers, and it won’t be long before Kelce finds himself at that level. I have put him on this list every week of the season, I believe, and have used him on nearly every daily fantasy team this season as well. Even in his “down games,” he has been quadrupling this low salary he keeps being slapped with, and I do not expect that to change this week. Thirty-point upside with a practically guaranteed floor of four-times his salary? That’s a tough deal to pass up!
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to land in Boston and not think about my teams the rest of the weekend, and not make one single change…God, help me.