Week 6: In Which Camels Are Thirsty
Camels drink a lot of water. Like, a lot. As in 20 gallons at once.
Sorry – I’m getting ahead of myself. Let me go back a bit…
As regular readers know, I was in Boston this last weekend visiting my folks (no, my folks are not camels; give me just a moment, all right – I’m circling back around to that aspect of the article!). On Sunday morning, I went with my parents to the church in which I grew up, and my old pastor was telling the story of Rebecca, who married one of Abraham’s sons. According to the story, Abraham sent his servant to find a wife for his son, Isaac – a daunting task to be sure (although, scholars are still divided on whether Abraham’s servant or a random dude in today’s era heading into a bar to pick up a girl had a more difficult task before them), so when Abraham’s servant arrived at the town in which he hoped to find a bride for Isaac, he basically said this: ‘Hey, God, I’m sort of clueless here – don’t really know what I’m looking for. Let’s do this: I’ll stop at the well, and when the women come to draw water, I will ask them for a drink. Whoever says to me, “Not only will I draw a drink for you, but I will also water your camels” will be the right woman for Isaac.’
Well, whaddaya know – here comes Rebecca, and when the servant asks her for water, she says exactly that: “Not only will I draw a drink for you, but I will also water your camels.” That’s CAMELS – plural. And not just a couple camels, either – a whole string of them. At 20 gallons per camel. And look, it’s not like this girl was just flipping a spigot and filling a bucket for these beasts; she was pulling the water up from a well, carrying it to the camels, and starting over again (and again, and again).
Once Rebecca was finished, the servant presented her with some gifts (you know – gold and stuff…that is to say, the sort of stuff you better give to some stranger after she spends hours watering all your freaking camels), and he traveled with her to her house, where he presented her with more gifts and proposed to her…on behalf of Isaac (man, the guys had it easy back then; rich dude with a servant, and you simply send the servant off to find you a wife? – nice!).
My old pastor brought up this story as a sort of parable to convey the benefits of generosity. Surely, this incident with Rebecca – with her offering to spend hours of her day filling someone else’s 20-gallon camels – was not an isolated incident; presumably, she was simply a generous person…and as a generous person, good things happened to her. Good things like marrying this rich dude with gold to spare.
This weekend, my mom and I were chatting about daily fantasy football (Hi, Mom!), and I was telling her about the group of friends I have who have started playing this year, and how I’ve been helping them with all the things I learned during baseball season about roster construction, strategy, et cetera. And my mom said, “That’s nice that you would help them, but aren’t you competing against these guys?”
Honestly? Yes. Yes, I am competing against them. And I am competing against any of you who read this article. But I said to my mom, “Yeah, but it took a lot of hard work and a lot of trial and error to learn some of the things I’ve learned; I don’t want these guys to have to learn it all first-hand if I already know it. There is plenty of room at the top for all of us.”
Now, obviously, this outlook – this “generosity” – is not the reason I have been successful in daily fantasy sports. It’s not as if karma or the fantasy gods are rewarding me for being willing to open my personal box of secrets, strategies, and approaches, but I do feel that life is better when you’re generous. I feel that good things happen to generous people. I feel that those who are generous tend to keep their minds more open and unencumbered, which can lead to good decisions in…oh, I don’t know, things like daily fantasy football (as well as, of course, less important things – like regular life and all).
Yes, it may seem counterintuitive to share your secrets with others against whom you are competing, but you know what? There is plenty of room at the top! And good things happen to generous people.
I do not know how many of you have been reading this article regularly (roll call in the comments? – let me know if you’re present!), and I do not know how many of you have been following the advice I have been putting out there. But I do know this: This last weekend, I finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th with the four teams I entered in the Game Changer on DraftKings (actually, it was just two teams, each of which I double-entered), I finished 35th (out of 92,000) in the Millionaire Maker, I won a “trip-only” package to Atlantis as part of DraftKings’ King of the Beach weekend, and for the second time in three weeks, I barely missed out on winning a Qualifier for a spot in the King of the Beach tournament…And in this article, I attempt each week to provide you with my true, honest thoughts – with thoughts on the players I will be using myself! Yes, there are some weekly missteps (that’s the nature of the game!), and I am certainly not as much of a “name” player as some of the other guys whose articles you are probably reading, but I like to think the advice in this article can help many of you (after all, I’m not a mass-entry guy, either; generally, I will create anywhere from two to five teams on any given weekend, so any players I believe in and mention in this article are players I truly and strongly believe in!); hopefully you are incorporating some of the advice into your own lineups!
And that brings me to my next point: hopefully you are being generous with this article! If you find it helpful, don’t hoard it! Share the link with others you know who play daily fantasy.
For those daily fantasy players who have not yet started spending time on RotoGrinders themselves, let them know how valuable RotoGrinders is.
And if you have season-long friends who have not yet started playing daily, tell them how awesome daily is…then make an effort to ensure these buddies start out with as much information as you have accumulated yourself! There is plenty of room at the top; don’t try to hog it all to yourself – help others get there!
Finally, one last note before we get to this week’s picks: next week, I am going to use this space to break down the core elements of my weekly research strategy and my approach to roster construction. Are there other approaches that work? Of course! (And if your personal approach is working well, your best bet is to stick with it!) But if you are still searching for “what works for you,” perhaps some of the thoughts I share next week will help you get your feet under you. I’ll see you back here? Same time(ish), same place?
Now, this week, I am only putting in two distinct teams on DraftKings, and these two teams are fairly similar to one another (basically, I’m using a total of 12 players across these two teams), so not every guy I mention below is actually someone I will be using on my teams. However, all of these are guys I truly like, and are guys I believe are great values.
As always, in this article, we are not looking to predict who will score the most points at each position; rather, we are looking for the guys who will score the most points-per-dollar! Success in daily fantasy football is all about finding the guys who will score the most points per dollar, and our specific target in this article is guys who A) have a good chance to triple their salary (a guy who costs $5.4k, for example, should be a good bet to score 16.2 points), and B) have the upside to quadruple their salary. With a $50k budget on DraftKings, a team full of players who triple their salary will always give you the opportunity to finish in the money (150 points), and a team in which all your players quadruple their salary will always give you the opportunity to win (200 points) any tournament you enter!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro. Here are my favorite plays of the week.
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$8600 – MATT RYAN vs Bears
I’ll let you in on a secret: I am using Matt Ryan as my QB on both of my DK teams this week. It’s a big secret to divulge, as I am making the rare move of playing some head-to-heads this week (including a few I have scooped vs Condia and CSURam88 – you know, just for the heck of it), which means that announcing specific players of mine is a bit of a risk. (Of course, we can safely assume we will find Peyton on CSURam’s team…and Condia will probably have Mike Glennon or Blake Bortles or, heck, Ryan Mallett – why not, right? – on his team, so what does it really matter if I announce my QB in advance?) Crap – I’ve now taken up all my self-allotted space under Matt Ryan to talk about myself rather than talking about Matt Ryan. Let’s make this easy: The Bears secondary has gotten worse yet again this week with the loss of Chris Conte, and already the Bears secondary was not good. The Falcons are at home. Julio and Roddy are healthy. And the Bears are unlikely to be able to get a ton of pressure on Matty Ice, even with the Falcons beat-up O-line. I think Ryan has the highest QB score of the week this week.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$9400 – PEYTON MANNING vs Jets
Of course, Peyton has to be mentioned every week, regardless of opponent. When that opponent is Rex Ryan’s ragtag squad of lovable losers (sounds like a movie, doesn’t it? – maybe we could call this season “Little Jets,” and could make it the sequel to “Little Giants”!), Peyton’s ceiling rises so high you can barely see it from the ground. Peyton will be highly-owned, and I will not be using him, but he obviously has as much upside as any QB this week. I don’t think the Little Jets can do much to stop him.
$8000 – JAY CUTLER vs Falcons
Cutler will make mistakes. He will force the ball to Brandon Marshall in triple coverage. He will throw a pass up for grabs when he is under pressure. He will marry Kristen Cavallari. But even with those mistakes, he will produce. I don’t like him as much as my buddy Collin likes him (and Collin – collinman005 on DK – has grown his bankroll from $25 to about $500 through the first five weeks of his first season playing daily fantasy!), but with the opponent and the assurance that game flow will lead to lots of passing from Cutler, he certainly has a ceiling as high as anyone’s.
$7800 – ELI MANNING vs Eagles
I no longer chuckle when I mention Eli in this space. And I no longer cry quite as hard when I ask how the heck brother-of-Peyton managed to beat the Pats in TWO Super Bowls. Why? Because Eli has looked – dare I say it? – good. Yes, good. McAdoo’s offense has been perfect for Eli and his receivers now that they have finally grasped it, and this Eagles secondary bleeds points to QBs and outside WRs. This is a great spot for Eli.
$7600 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Cowboys
Remember that time Russell Wilson rushed for 122 yards? Yeah, I remember that too. What was that, Monday? Yeah, good times. Believe it or not, Russ has not only been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs this year, but has also been one of the highest-scoring. This price is still far too low, and he’s still a tremendous value against a defense that has a difficult time stopping the pass and should be susceptible to Russell’s legs as well.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$6000 – TOM BRADY vs Bills
Tommy Terrific! Great to see you back in my recommended picks, old friend. No, I know I have you stashed down in the “Sweepstakes Pick.” I know that’s a bit embarrassing. But you have to start somewhere! Actually, I guess you could say Brady started somewhere on Sunday night; he still did not quite look like the Brady of old, but he looked far closer to the Brady of old than he had all year. Gronk is healthy. Tim Wright is coming along. The line is coming along. Vereen and Ridley continue to produce. Edelman remains a force. And maybe, someday, the Patriots will figure out a way to build an outside WR (or will give Randy Moss whatever elixir Fred Jackson and Frank Gore are hogging, and will bring him back to dominate once more!). Brady is not quite an $8k QB yet, but he should certainly perform better than the other guys priced around him at $6k. He’s a steal at this price in a game in which he should notch around 250 yards and 2 TDs without much trouble.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5400 – ANDRE WILLIAMS vs Eagles
The rhetoric is that Williams cannot catch passes. The truth, however, is that Williams was not asked to catch passes last year at Boston College, and outside of one bad drop a couple weeks back, he has looked just fine as an option out of the backfield. Also, he spent a large chunk of the offseason working on hand-eye coordination drills to be ready for a pass-catching role. Also, Rashad Jennings will be out this week, making Williams the unquestioned starter against a mediocre run D. Also, who else are the Giants going to give the ball to? Peyton Hillis? They might as well use Al_Smizzle instead – heck, Al’s probably faster than Hillis, and I bet he’s tougher to take down as well! I love Andre Williams this week – he’s definitely one of my favorite plays.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7200 – LE’VEON BELL vs Browns
I like a lot of RBs at the higher price range (particularly Forte and Marshawn), but Bell offers a big chunk of savings over those guys! Who is likelier to quadruple their salary among those three guys? Who knows, really – Bell has not been getting as many red zone looks as he should be getting. But given his talent, the matchup, the price, and the opportunity, I like Bell as the best value among all the elite, high-priced guys.
$6000 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Giants
Speaking of “elite, high-priced guys,” there’s also LeSean McCo—wait, LeSean, where’d you go? Oh, wow! – I see you? What are you doing hanging out way over in the $6k range? That’s a fun place to find you…Yeah. LeSean may still be dealing with lingering issues from the turf toe. His O-line may still be working to improve. And the Giants may not be awful against the run (don’t let the “RB fantasy points against” fool you too much; as many fantasy points as they’ve been allowing, Pro Football Focus actually has the Giants rated as a top run D), but any running back who is getting 25 to 30(!) touches per game is worth considering at $6k. Jerome Bettis could come out of retirement, and he’d be worth considering at 25 to 30 touches with a $6k price! Slightly-injured with a damaged O-line against a somewhat tough run D? Doesn’t matter. I’ll still take LeSean McCoy at this price.
$5500 – BRANDEN OLIVER vs Raiders
It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s Darren Sproles! Okay, that joke was dumb. But really, watching Oliver is a lot like watching a young Sproles, and the Raiders do not have a good run D. I think people may go overboard this week with Oliver ownership (there is no guarantee the Chargers will use him the way we all imagine they will), but if they do give Oliver 20 touches with Donald Brown nursing his injured head and his injured pride, he’s a great bet to return piles of happiness to you at this price.
$4800 – FRANK GORE vs Rams
I have owned Frank Gore in season-long once (back when he was, like, 26 years old – what was that, 1996?) – and I think I traded him partway through the season. And I do not believe I have ever used him in daily. I don’t really have anything against him – he’s never wronged me in any deeply personal way – but I’ve just never really loved him, either. Heck, I don’t love him this week! Every week with Gore, there is the risk the 49ers will lower his carries and manage his reps to keep him healthy for the stretch run of the season. But in a divisional game, against a bad run defense, on Monday Night Football, I think Gore will have a big game. It may be just a gut call, but I ate recently, so I know it’s not just my gut telling me I’m hungry. It must be my gut telling me I like Frank Gore this week.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3700 – JOIQUE BELL vs Vikings
It’s almost unfair to use Bell at this price. $3.7k? Come on! This is a guy who was priced at $5k to $6k through the first few weeks of the season…and now that Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick are about to be out, and Bell will be the only healthy starting-caliber back (playing against a sub-par run D, no less), he’s $3.7k? I know his usage has been inconsistent this year and he has not yet had any games to match what he did last year, but use some forward thinking here (rather than just looking at what has happened through the first few weeks), and you’ll see what a great value Bell is this week. Even with a mediocre game, he has a good shot to quadruple this salary. And on top of that, he has the talent, matchup, and opportunity to put up 20 or more points; at this price, it’s an ace play.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4800 – RODDY WHITE vs Bears
I bet you can’t guess who I will be stacking with my boy Matty Ice on both of my teams. Wait, what? Crap! How did you know? Yes, Julio Jones is the “receiver to own” on this team – especially if you’re talking season-long. But if you are just talking value, it’s tough to beat Roddy at $4.8k this week. It seems people have forgotten that Roddy and Julio regularly trade off big games, and I do not think the huge disparity in targets last week is indicative of what things will look like every week moving forward. There is plenty of opportunity in this game for Roddy and Julio to each have a big game, and Roddy’s salary makes him – in my mind – the most attractive option on the day.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7100 – A.J. GREEN vs Panthers
Editor’s note: Green (toe) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game
This pick is similar to the Le’Veon Bell pick above. If you’ve just been skimming this article and only reading the players you really care about (shame on you!), and therefore missed what I said about Bell (or if you have short-term memory loss and have already forgotten what I said about Bell), I’ll recap: Basically, there are a lot of WRs I like in this price range, but Green is the cheapest of the bunch, and I like him as much as the others. This makes him the best value among the elite, high-priced WRs.
$6300 – BRANDON MARSHALL vs Falcons
Speaking of “elite, high-priced WRs…” wait, what? Again? Look, I know Marshall’s yardage totals have disappointed over the last few weeks, but let’s be real, who are the top WRs in the NFL? In no particular order, I would say: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown…and Brandon Marshall. Marshall practiced in full last week; he should be considered fully healthy. And if he is fully healthy, he’s a ridiculous value at this price, in this matchup. He’ll be highly-owned, but he’s probably worth using anyway! It’s tough to pass up this talent (and this man-crush connection with Cutler) at this price.
$6300 – GOLDEN TATE vs Vikings
I am slightly concerned about the prospect of Megatron missing this game, and of what it will do to the attention paid to Tate. But then, Megatron was playing on one leg the last two weeks, and Tate dominated even with the extra attention he was getting as a result of Megatron’s hobbled state. Because the offense will flow through Tate, and because he is the same price as Marshall (which will leave him very low-owned this week, as most people flock to Marshall), Tate is a great play this week.
$4600 – RUEBEN RANDLE vs Eagles
Ten targets. Ten targets. Ten targets. Those have been Randle’s target totals the last three games. T.Y. Hilton has stayed in the $5.2k to $5.8k range with his weekly 10 to 12 targets, even though he has not yet fully capitalized on these targets. Maclin has risen from the $5.6k to $6.8k range with his massive target volume, even though he and Foles are connecting on only a small percentage of these targets. And yet, Randle is still sitting here at $4.6k. At the moment, Randle has as much opportunity as anyone, his talent is on par with some of the top WRs in the league, and the matchup is hugely in his favor. There is perceived risk, as his “name value” is not as high as some of the other guys, but the real risk is a lot lower than you probably imagine, and the upside is very high.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$4200 – ODELL BECKHAM vs Eagles
Chip Kelly refuses to move Brandon Boykin out of his slot duties. This means he refuses to put anyone in a position to cover Beckham on the outside. Beckham should fly under the radar this week, as this is only his second career game, and as he only played 50% of snaps last week, but he is fully healthy, he will probably be on the field for 70% or 80% of snaps, and he is immensely talented. Guys like Cooks, Hurns, and Kelvin (multiple times) have turned in huge games as rookie WRs this season; I would not at all be surprised if it is Beckham’s turn this week.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5800 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Bills
Highway ROBbery – that’s what this price is! (Pause for applause) Gronk seems to finally be fully healthy, and is finally playing a full compliment of snaps. On its own, that would be enough to make this price “too low.” Add to that this tidbit: Gronk grew up in Buffalo, and the Pats seem to always try to make sure he gets a TD or two when they play in his hometown – and basically, you have one of the best plays of the day at TE.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$5500 – MARTELLUS BENNETT vs Falcons
It should be a high-scoring game. Bennett is a red zone favorite of Cutler’s. And the Falcons should have a hard time covering him. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
$3500 – LARRY DONNELL vs Eagles
It all comes down to Mychel Kendricks. If Kendricks is healthy and plays this week for the Eagles, Donnell is hands off. If Kendricks misses another week, however, Donnell will be low-owned after his poor performance last week (in a game in which he was constantly double-teamed), and he’ll be a tremendous value at this price. You already know Eli likes his safety net, and you know Donnell is a tremendous red zone target; add a great matchup in what should be a high-scoring affair, and this price is far too low (again: assuming Kendricks is out! – if Kendricks plays, this endorsement of Donnell evaporates like water on blacktop on a hot summer day…or like Blaine Gabbert’s composure when he has fewer than 7 seconds to throw).
$3200 – JORDAN REED vs Cardinals
It’s one of the funny things on DraftKings. Funny in a “what the heck? – that makes no sense” sort of way. When a player is injured, their price tends to drop, as if they’ve been performing poorly or something. Maybe the DraftKings’ algorithm knows something we don’t (maybe Reed has been performing poorly off the field – perhaps in the “picking up ladies” department – and that is why his price has dropped?), but if Reed is healthy, he’s more a $5k talent at TE than a $3.2k talent. Add to that the fact that the Cardinals remain historically awful at covering tight ends, and Reed becomes one of the best values of the weekend. Of course, you need to make sure he’s active – and even if he is, there is the risk he could break a fingernail and miss half the game – but there is certainly a ton of upside to like here.
$3000 – CHARLES CLAY vs Packers
I don’t think he’s been healthy through the first few weeks of the season (you know those shirts that say, “Trust me, I’m a doctor”? – yeah, I’m not a doctor…so I could be completely wrong here), but I believe Clay is going to come out of the bye far healthier than he has been this year to date, and is going to not only get those 6 to 10 targets he’s been getting so far, but will also be getting some of these targets downfield at last.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS vs Ravens
Don’t use ASJ this week. Or, I mean, use him if you want to, but not off my recommendation! I am only putting him here because I’m a sucker for symmetry, and in order to achieve symmetry in this article, I needed a “pick of the week,” “four more guys,” and a “sweepstakes pick” at tight end. I’m not actually recommending ASJ, though. I do like him a lot. I scooped him up in a couple season-long leagues. But I don’t like his matchup this week against the Ravens. He could definitely get five or six targets and a TD, but if he does, I’m content missing it. He’s only here for purposes of symmetry.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to take roll call and see who actually stuck around to read this whole article. (Present?) And then, I need to share this article with others…