Week 7: In Which We Are All Business
I wore a suit. And tie. And dress shoes – the whole shebang. It might have been the first time I wore a suit without being told to. In fact, it might be the only time I have ever worn a suit without being told to.
The occasion? I was helping my sister learn math.
You see, each of my sisters is very smart (and yes, that was written correctly – “each is,” not “each are,” in case you were wondering…), but neither of them were ever great at math. On the other hand, I was great at math, so one year (I was probably 11 years old), my parents had the idea of having me help my older sister sharpen her math skills. I knew my sister was annoyed that this was taking place, so I tried to make her laugh by putting on a suit (and tie, and dress shoes – the whole shebang) for the occasion. And it worked. That is…the “making her laugh” part worked. The “helping her with math”? Yeah. Not so much.
In high school, I tried my hand at teaching again. This time, it was an SAT Prep course I taught to some of my classmates. “Hey,” I figured, “I did pretty darn well on the SAT myself. I know what I’m doing. Why not help some of my classmates do well also?” How did it go?
Do you want to guess?
Yeah. Of the eight classmates I helped, I think seven of them scored below a 900 (this was back when the SAT was out of 1600; I think you got 800 just for correctly writing down your name – which, perhaps, was something I forgot to go over: “How to correctly write down your name”). The one who didn’t score under 900? He accidentally signed up for the ACT after spending weeks preparing for the SAT (that must have been something I forgot to cover as well: “How to sign up for the correct test”).
The problem with me and teaching? To put it simply: I tend to see things differently than others see things. This makes it easy for me to understand certain things, but makes it nearly impossible to convey to others how they can/should see these things themselves.
It makes sense. After all, I found out about five or six years ago that I’m not an entirely lousy teacher. I taught ACT, SAT, and GRE test prep for Kaplan for a while and did quite well! The difference? There was a curriculum. Easy! All I had to do was be personable and “hang out with” the students as I guided them through the curriculum. I loved it, and they loved it (or…at least, they didn’t hate it, and they learned things, which is just about as good).
I bring all that up because I told you last week I was going to use this week to give you a glimpse at my standard research and roster construction approach. And I will be doing that. I guarantee it! (I mean…I’m in charge of what’s in this article, so how much am I really going out on a limb in making that guarantee? Yeah. Not at all. Unless my cat takes over my computer and punches in a bunch of random letters and numbers and attaches it to an email and presses “send,” I will be covering my research and roster construction strategies.) What I cannot guarantee is that I will do a good job conveying all this in a manner that will make it easy for you to apply some of this yourself.
Let’s give it a go, though. Feel free to let me know in the comments whether or not this helped! (You’re all still with me this week, right? Even after I told you to use Matt Ryan and Roddy White last week? Okay, good. Let’s forget about that, now. After all, it wasn’t a completely awful week for me – I did move up to 31st in the Tournament Player of the Year rankings, and that was because…oh, what’s that? Oops – never mind, that was because the results from Week 5 imported a bit late. Yeah, I did nothing well in Week 6. They should take me out of the TPOY rankings entirely. Ouch, JM, stop hitting yourself! Okay, moving on…)
Research
When you’re in school (here we are – back to school stuff again), there is a big difference between having to “cram for a test” (you remember that, don’t you? – where you try to store all this information in your head for one day so you can pass this test, only to forget everything the next day?), and instead already knowing the material over which you will be tested. This is how I see research for fantasy football. My goal is to never feel like I am “cramming” each week. Instead, I like to simply make sure I “know” the NFL – which effectively makes my weekly research something akin to “brushing up before a test,” rather than “cramming before a test.”
How do I do this? Well, frankly, it’s easier than you might think.
1) Resources. Having some resources you can use throughout the week (resources that collect information for you, so that you do not have to gather all this information yourself) is immensely helpful! My main resources for “knowing the NFL” are RotoWorld and FantasyPros. On RotoWorld, I read every single post, every single day. Sound difficult? It’s not. Their app has everything on it, and it takes maybe 10 or 15 minutes to read everything they post throughout the day. Even if it’s about a linebacker who missed practice or a backup running back who is hurt, I read it, because – in the long run – it all matters. As for FantasyPros, this is one of the best resources for knowing what beat writers around the league are saying. FantasyPros posts links to lots of articles from beat writers that will be helpful to you in knowing what’s going on with each team, and with each player. Beat writers spend more time with a team than anyone but the players and coaches themselves, so being plugged into what the beat writers are observing/saying can go a long way toward helping you “know the NFL.”
2) Watching games. In one sense, I have a bit of an advantage here, as I was a film rat when I played football in high school, and for the first few years after I graduated high school I spent Friday nights in the fall in the press box with a headset on, communicating with the coordinators on the sideline, and I spent my Saturday mornings (bright and early) breaking down film with the coaches. It’s just something I’ve always loved. In another sense, however, anyone who has watched football for years can watch games (and listen to the announcers) and pick up things about the players! At the very least, you should be watching football on Sundays. (This seems to be a given, but I know there are a lot of fantasy football players who do not do this.) And if you can, you should also watch games during the week. If you have a Game Rewind subscription, you will have access during the week to replays of all the games – including condensed versions that are about 40 minutes long. You probably will not have time to watch all the games, but you should at least try to watch some players you have questions about (or, if you cannot afford a Game Rewind subscription – which is about $70, I think – you should ramp up your time with “Resources” to really know what’s going on with all the different teams).
That’s the first part of my “research” approach: Making sure I know the NFL (and its players) extremely well. That’s something I do for 10 minutes here, 30 minutes there, and maybe one full afternoon a week (typically the afternoon on which I put together my RotoGrinders article). It may seem like a lot of work, but if it’s just something you do here and there, it helps you pile up a lot of information and knowledge, and it never really takes too much out of your day. (And, of course, once you start making money off daily fantasy, you can think of it as “work,” or as “investment,” rather than just thinking of it as “losing a bit of time”!)
The other part of my research deals with the weekly stuff. How do I determine the players I like?
The main things I like to pay attention to are as follows:
Talent
Opportunity
Matchup
Price
A talented player who gets lots of opportunity (lots of carries/targets for a RB, lots of targets for a WR/TE, lots of dropbacks for a QB), is in a good matchup, and has a low price is optimal. This is not something you find often, of course, but it’s optimal! But even outside this, there are a lot of combinations that can work. Say you have a slightly-below-average running back, but he is running behind a great offensive line (which ups his “talent” level), is going to get around 20 carries and 4 or 5 targets, and is facing off against a poor run defense at a low price? If this is the case, who cares if this guy is a below-average talent? He’s still likely to pay off his salary in a big way!
Of course, simply saying “talent, opportunity, matchup, and price” is a bit arbitrary (and that’s where conveying this information to you in such a way that you will be able to use it yourself becomes a bit tricky!). For myself, I have built an algorithm that takes all these factors into account and spits out a projected point total for each running back, wide receiver, and tight end. I do not use this as the “be all and end all” of my research and roster decisions, but my algorithm has proven to be a very accurate “ranking tool” for me, as well as a fair barometer of how likely a given player is to return value on their salary.
With that said (as I can’t exactly put together an entire algorithm-specific post each week, and as a lot of the “matchup” elements in my algorithm require me to look at specific sets of information on Pro Football Focus, and to then determine my matchup – and even my talent – ratings accordingly), it’s not as if it’s as simple as just explaining my algorithm to you so you can use it yourself! And this means you need to know how to determine talent, opportunity, matchup, and price yourself.
Price, of course, is the easy one. It’s right there. You don’t have to do “research.” You don’t have to do any-kind-of-search. Just open DraftKings and you find the players’ prices. The question, then, becomes: which players are worth their price? Is it better to use Antonio Brown at $7.9k, or is it better to use Andre Johnson at $5.2k?
Opportunity becomes a big factor here, and this is easy to find. For running backs, how many carries are they getting? For wide receivers, how many targets are they getting? And then, how many of these opportunities are occurring in the red zone (thereby increasing the player’s likelihood of scoring a TD)?
If you are following the NFL closely, you should already have a handle on each player’s talent level.
And even if you do not have a subscription to Pro Football Focus, a bit of digging around will usually give you a solid idea of what type of matchup a player is facing.
Of course, all this is still a bit arbitrary, and this is where the “secret weapon” of FantasyPros’ consensus rankings comes into play! Every week, FantasyPros averages the rankings of more than 100 “fantasy experts” around the Internet (everyone from the guys at ESPN and Yahoo to the guys on Pro Football Focus to the guys on some of the smaller fantasy sites you may have come to know and love). This is far more valuable than looking at the rankings of one or two “experts,” as it tends to give you a far more accurate idea of where players SHOULD be ranked. (That is not to say, of course, that these players will perform as they should, but it is to say that the rankings generally reflect how players should be expected to perform.)
One of my favorite things to do with these rankings is to pull up the consensus FLEX rankings, and to then pull up the FLEX tab on DraftKings and compare the two lists. This is where you start finding gold! For example: maybe Brandon Marshall is ranked as the #7 FLEX play for PPR…but he is priced as the #17 FLEX play on DraftKings. Boom! Value. Add him to your list of guys you like. Maybe, then, you were considering Randall Cobb. Perhaps you really like him. But let’s say he is ranked as the #22 FLEX play that week, and is priced as the #22 FLEX option. Value? Not at all! (In this example: could Cobb still perform at a higher level than #22? Of course. But by taking him when he’s priced right about where he should be, you may prevent yourself from filling out your roster with as many good players as possible! Getting married to one particular player because you “really like him” – and sacrificing other spots on your roster as a result – is almost always a mistake.)
Again, this is not the “be all and end all” of who you should pick. But it is one of the best ways to determine which players are undervalued that week!
All of this is sort of bleeding into Roster Construction, so we’ll move into that now.
Roster Construction
First off, you need to know your contest. If you look at the Game Changer, for example (which typically maxes out at 100 entries, and includes many of the best players in the industry), you will find that the winning teams usually score around 160 to 180. Now, you may see this and imagine that this means the Game Changer is somehow a softer tournament than those large-field tourneys in which you need about 200 or 215 to win. But the reality is this: Because it’s a smaller field (and because these are almost all smart players), most of the guys are taking slightly safer picks – raising their team’s floor while still targeting a high ceiling – as they know they don’t need 215 points to win! This is why, for example, I will be using Rodgers with one of my teams in the Game Changer this week, while hardly using him at all in the Millionaire Maker. You see? In the Game Changer, I want that solid 20-point floor, even if I have to pay up for it. I know I can find enough good values elsewhere that I can still easily score 180 – and even if some of my players bomb, I can have a solid shot at cashing, because I’m raising my floor.
In a tournament such as the Millionaire Maker, on the other hand – with 92,000 entries – high floor doesn’t matter. In one such tournament, you need to be fine rolling with someone like Derek Carr and hoping he goes off for 30 points. Maybe he won’t, and your team will have no shot. But if he does go off for 30 points, you have now freed up enough salary to maximize all your other positions! You see? Knowing your contest is big. Ask yourself these two questions: 1) What is your goal? (Your goal should always be – first and foremost – to give yourself the best chance of winning, while also – secondly – trying to give yourself a high enough floor that you have a shot to cash even if some players do not pan out. What you need in order to reach these goals will differ from contest to contest!) And 2) How can you reach this goal?
In order to reach this goal (trying to win, while giving yourself a high enough floor to cash if things go wrong in some spots), you need to make sure you are maximizing every position.
I talk a lot in this article about targeting a mark of “4x a player’s salary.” If all your players do this (for example: a $5k guy scoring 20 points), at a budget of $50k on DraftKings, you will score 200 points.
The problem, however, is that we can find players in the $3k range who will quadruple their salary….and yes, this enables us to then get a couple guys in the $8k range; but you know what this means, right? This means we need those guys in the $8k range to then quadruple their salary as well!
One of the big mistakes I see people making is that they find great values in the $3k range, and then they load up on high-priced guys elsewhere, assuming this is the best strategy because they now have marquee names with high ceilings – but while it’s good to have one or two of those marquee names, it’s not always necessary!
For instance, some weeks you can pretty much fill up your team with Top-30 FLEX options without straying far from the $5k range. A team like this can offer you just as much upside as a “$3k and $8k” team, with a much higher floor!
Another thing to consider is that you do not want guys who are strictly there for quadrupling their salary. What do I mean by this? Basically, I mean you do not want a $3k guy for whom 14 points is his absolute ceiling. Sure, he more than quadruples his salary this way, but what we are really seeking from our team is for every player to also have the potential for 25 to 30 points, in order to fully maximize our ceiling! The way I like to determine this is by only picking players I feel have the potential to get “100 yards and 2 TDs.” Obviously, it’s not going to be a regular occurrence that this happens, but by targeting only guys who have that sort of potential – always asking yourself, “Does this player have the talent, opportunity, and matchup to notch 100 yards and 2 TDs?” – you will always give yourself opportunities for the sorts of huge performances that win you tournaments!
And the last (and perhaps most important) thing I have to say about constructing your roster is this: Come up with a research strategy!
For myself, I start out each week looking at the prices and making note of the players I feel are undervalued. Simple. Just scroll through the players in each category on DraftKings and take note of the guys – based off what I already know about the NFL – who I feel are priced lower than they should be.
After this, I go through the players again and pull out any additional guys who particularly intrigue me that week.
After this, I compare prices to the consensus rankings on FantasyPros and add any guys I missed.
From here, I have a list of maybe 10 QBs, maybe 15 or 20 RBs, maybe 25 to 30 WRs, and maybe 10 TEs, and I put these players through my algorithm, and then sort them by “best score” and “best value,” according to my algorithm.
After this, I start building teams. And building teams. And building teams. Throughout the week, this is what I do. I build teams! Most of the teams never see the light of day. Most of them come together, and I never look at them again. But as I build teams, I’ll end up putting together one that makes me say, “Wow…I really like this one.” Boom. That’s one of my teams. And so on. And so on. Some weeks, I only use two or three teams total. Other weeks, I may use 15 or 20. But all weeks, I’ll end up building several hundred teams – many of which, again, never see the light of day! (And when I stop building teams – that is, when I have the full number of teams I plan to use that week – I stop. Usually, this is around Thursday or Friday. I don’t look at football stuff after that; I shut off my mind from all this and move forward and enjoy life.)
For me, it is only after I have done all of my own research and have built a good chunk of my teams that I start reading articles on RotoGrinders and reading the forum and watching Grinders Live videos to see who others like that week. Every once in a while, I will gain a new perspective on a player I had not been thinking of, and I will work them onto a few teams and see how I feel about these new teams I have put together. Other times, I will decide to get off a player I had perhaps been on the fence about. But always, my own research is my basis for what I do with my teams – my research based off the guys I like from A) Knowing the NFL, and B) looking at all the factors that help me determine value based on talent, opportunity, matchup, and price!
That is not to say, of course, that this is exactly the approach you should take. It is to say, however, that you need to come up with an approach that works for you – an approach that “fits” what you like to do! Perhaps, for you, the best approach is to start out with articles on RotoGrinders and see what some of the “experts” are saying. Perhaps this is what helps you really determine where you want to begin your research, and how you want to move forward! Or, perhaps the group-shared thoughts on the forum are a great place for you to start, and the articles on RotoGrinders are where you like to wrap up. The point is: you need an approach with which you feel comfortable – an approach you can use each week! And then, you need to stick to this approach – tweaking it as necessary, but always remaining confident in what works for you.
After all, you know the NFL. Right? So you should feel confident in what you are looking for, what you are finding, and the teams you are putting together!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the incredibly long intro, and we move onto this week’s picks.
Is this part of your research regimen? Good! Welcome aboard…
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$6800 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Rams
I love Russ so much this week, it didn’t even occur to me originally that his ownership numbers might be low. But you know what? His ownership numbers might be low. Nice! After he burned a lot of people last week, this is the perfect week to use him. He’s a championship-caliber player, and I expect him to bounce back in a big way. (By the way: his AVERAGE fantasy points per game is 3.2x his salary for this week; yeah, that’s awesome value!)
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$9000 – PEYTON MANNING vs 49ers
Peyton Manning is going to break the all-time touchdown record this Sunday night. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but I would bet the contents of my fridge, and we have some tasty leftovers in there. There are some players to whom statistical records seem to truly mean nothing, and there are other players to whom statistical records mean quite a bit; Peyton seems to fall squarely into that second category, and on Sunday Night Football (primetime game with the whole country watching – at home in front of his own fans, no less), Manning will want to make sure he gets the record taken care of. And Manning usually gets his way. And even though his price is high (and you could find the same ceiling at a lower price this week), you cannot top the floor Peyton Manning gives you.
$8800 – AARON RODGERS vs Panthers
It’s Aaron Rodgers. He has 15 touchdowns and 1 interception this year. And the Panthers have a bad secondary. There isn’t a whole lot more that needs to be said.
$7400 – CARSON PALMER vs Raiders
The quandary: Palmer’s arm strength is at about 80% as he recovers from his…well, I guess you could call it his “weird nerve thing” (is that the proper medical term?). However, the Raiders’ D is about 40% of a real defense. Palmer tends to have a floor of about 17 or 18 points, and he certainly has the ceiling to quadruple his salary (29.6 points) in this matchup.
$6500 – COLIN KAEPERNICK vs Broncos
This will be a high-scoring game. When a game is high-scoring, there needs to be players scoring those points. This week, Kaepernick will probably be one of those players scoring those points. Oh yeah – and he only costs $6.5k. Awesome!
Sweepstakes Pick:
$6000 – ALEX SMITH vs Chargers
“What? Alex Smith?” Yes. Alex Smith. I know the Chargers are a solid D, and this pick is certainly not for the faint of heart. But I could see this game turning into a shootout, and if it does, Smith could rack up a good 25 to 30 points. If you used Smith on a team or two, you could stack him with Charles (receiving TDs) or Kelce, or you could use Smith entirely by himself. (I’m going out on a limb, in fact, and predicting that the team that wins the Millionaire Maker this week will have Alex Smith in their lineup. And I’m also making this a contract-binding section: If you did not have Smith in a lineup, but you put him in after reading this and win $1 million this weekend, you owe me a 2% commission. Kidding. But seriously…)
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$5300 – BEN TATE vs Jaguars
No, he does not catch passes. But you know what he does? He gets about 25 carries per game! And against the Jaguars, that could be enough for him to put up a massive stat line. Given price, he’s my favorite play of the day. (Bonus: I also do not hate the idea of using Isaiah Crowell. Even if Tate is healthy, Crowell should get 10 to 12 carries as he rotates in, which isn’t bad at a $4k price tag. And given Tate’s injury history, it would not be especially surprising if Tate were to get inured during the game, and if Crowell were to then get about 20 carries himself as a result. Surely, Crowell will be extremely low-owned, and you never know what could happen…)
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$7100 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Rams
I’ve seen a lot of people this week who aren’t sure if Lynch is a good play in Week 7. What? The Rams defended the run well on Monday night, but that does not change the fact that they have been very suspect against the run this season. The Seahawks’ offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell is upset with himself for failing to get Marshawn enough carries last week (if you’re paying attention to the NFL as I advised you in the section above to do, you know this already (you did read the section above, right? – because, you know, it’s sort of important this week…)), and I expect the Seahawks to overcorrect with a vengeance this week. I like Lynch as easily one of the top plays of the week. In fact, I don’t hate the idea of stacking him with Russ. (Typically, Russ is one of the few QBs you can feel good about using without a stack; but there is always a good chance Russ dumps off a TD to Marshawn, and with both of them on your team you could reap double goodness.)
$6700 – JAMAAL CHARLES vs Chargers
This pick scares me a bit, as the Chargers are stout on defense this year (and, you know, I’m sort of all-in on my Alex Smith recommendation with that stupid guarantee I made). But…come on. It’s Jamaal Charles, priced at $6.7k. I wouldn’t care if this were the 1985 Bears (I mean…like, with time travel and stuff, to where they’re playing the actual 1985 Bears; I don’t mean “I don’t care if it’s the players from the 1985 Bears playing today,” because obviously that would be a mismatch), you have to consider Charles at this price. Especially coming off the bye – rested, with the team having had an extra week to figure out ways to get him the ball – Charles needs to be strongly considered for your lineups.
$6600 – LE’VEON BELL vs Texans
Le’Veon Bell is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage this season. The only reason he is not priced with the likes of Forte, Demarco, and Arian is because he has only one TD. I know Todd Haley is hardheaded and unpredictable, but the Steelers have been awful in the red zone. Eventually, they need to start giving Bell more looks in the red zone, and the Texans have a poor run D. Bell is one of my favorite plays of the week!
$5100 – REGGIE BUSH vs Saints
I like the Lions to get Bush heavily involved in the pass game this week. My algorithm has him projected at about 17 points this week, and I could easily see him having one of those games in which he goes off. I know he’s generally ranked outside the top 20 RBs this week (which doesn’t exactly make this price a “great value”), but I’m high on Bush this week. I like him as a great PPR option.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3700 – C.J. SPILLER vs Vikings
Spiller’s floor in the receiving game this year has pretty much been 3 catches for 25 yards. That’s a floor of 5.5 points, even before any carries. I know Spiller has disappointed, and I know his usage is unpredictable, but even with his “lower usage,” he’s getting about 10 carries per game. There is risk involved in picking Spiller, but at $3.7k, he’s ripe for you to use. The Vikings D is susceptible to the run, and Spiller has the potential to pay off in a big way; certainly, he’s one of those guys with a $3k-range price tag who could not only quadruple his salary, but could also go off for “100 yards and 2 TDs.”
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4800 – SAMMY WATKINS vs Vikings
The Vikings do have a solid pass D, but I particularly like Watkins for a bounce-back game this week. After Watkins survived Revis Island last week, I think the Bills will try to get him involved early. Orton is loving being able to push the ball downfield to Watkins, and I think he will have extremely low ownership numbers this week and will provide a high floor with immense potential for a 30-point game.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6700 – RANDALL COBB vs Panthers
Cobb’s touchdown rate is sure to regress, but his average YAC is also likely to go up from where it is at present. Cobb is still one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, and while he does not offer the same ceiling as Jordy, he does give you a very high ceiling for the price, and has a high floor as well. (Bonus: I also like Davante Adams at $3.9k. In the Millionaire Maker, where you pretty much need 30 points from all your players, I don’t love Adams. But on a strictly “4x salary” basis, he makes one of the best plays of the day – and heck, who knows, maybe he really does have “100 yard, 2 TD” upside.)
$6300 – BRANDON MARSHALL vs Dolphins
Two words: Revenge game. There are some players for whom “getting traded from a team” would not matter all that much. But for someone with a chip the size of Alaska on his shoulder, this game will mean a lot to Marshall. He’s still Cutler’s favorite target, and he seems to be mostly healthy. Even if he has a down game, you can just about guarantee the Bears will try several times to get him a score or two. This gives him an extremely high floor, and…oh yeah, there’s also the fact that he’s one of the top 5 or 6 WRs in the NFL and is priced at only $6.3k. You’re welcome.
$5900 – GOLDEN TATE vs Saints
You should hope everyone is off Tate this week, and then you should be all over him! He disappointed last week in the stat line, but in reality it was still a very good game (7 catches, 11 targets – the only real issue was no big plays). The Saints have been atrocious in the secondary this year, making Tate an extremely enticing play. I don’t care of Megatron plays or not; Tate remains one of my favorite plays of the week.
$5200 – ANDRE JOHNSON vs Steelers
His touchdown rate will increase. He’s getting the ball deeper down the field than you’re probably thinking. And he is still a threat for a big play. Against a weak Steelers pass D, on Monday Night Football, I like Andre Johnson a lot.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3700 – JUSTIN HUNTER vs Redskins
Reports are that Locker is probably going to be out again this week, which means “Checkdown Charlie” will be starting again. But how much has Charlie Whitehurst really been “Checkdown Charlie” this year? Believe it or not, his aDOT (average depth of target) is actually among the highest in the league this year. He has been pushing the ball downfield, which is good for Hunter. If Locker starts, he likes to push the ball downfield, which is good for Hunter. The Redskins have one of the worst secondaries in football, which is good for Hunter. And Hunter is explosive, which is good for you. Hunter has a low floor (that’s why he’s, you know, a “sweepstakes pick“…and why he’s priced at $3.7k!), but he also has one of the highest ceilings you can find at his price. (A bonus “high ceiling at this price”: Markus Wheaton; yes, I know he has been a massive disappointment, but he is racking up tons of targets, and if the Steelers give him just one more week, I bet he shows up big. The issue, of course, is that it’s tough to trust Todd Haley to give Wheaton another week of big target numbers. If you’re willing to take the risk, however, it could pay off.)
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$4600 – JORDAN CAMERON vs Jaguars
He’s still only getting about five targets per game, but I would not be surprised to see that number climb to six or seven this week…and against this Jaguars D, that may be more than enough. Cameron’s floor is lower than some of the other TE options this week, but I absolutely love his ceiling as a tournament play.
Four More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6900 – JULIUS THOMAS vs 49ers
We expect Manning to throw several touchdowns this week? Okay, then. Julius is probably one of the guys to whom these touchdowns will be going. Yes, the 49ers are one of the best defenses against the tight end – but hold on just a moment; do you know why they’re one of the best defenses against the tight end? That’s right – because of Patrick Willis. And Willis is likely out this week. Kazaam!
$5000 – JORDAN REED vs Titans
When a player’s price goes up this much in one week ($1.8k), I generally avoid them, as that tends to mean they are overpriced (or, at least, it tends to mean there are much better values out there). But this was what I said last week about Reed, when he was priced at $3.2k: “…if Reed is healthy, he’s more a $5k talent at TE than a $3.2k talent. Add to that the fact that the Cardinals remain historically awful at covering tight ends, and Reed becomes one of the best values of the weekend.” Well, he was one of the best values of the week last week, and his price has now risen as a result; but it has risen only to that “$5k” range I mentioned last week. Even with that big jump in price, he’s not “overpriced.” Instead, he’s priced right about where he should be, and that still means he could hit that 4x salary mark…and he has that “big game” potential to boot.
$4800 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Chargers
Don’t be scared off by the fact the Chargers have been “the best team against tight ends” this year. Why should you not be scared? Because the Chargers have not played any top tight ends. They do have a good defense, but Kelce is very good himself. Even with this matchup against a solid D, Kelce remains one of the best TE plays of the week.
$4500 – VERNON DAVIS vs Broncos
I don’t particularly love Vernon this week, as he’s not getting as many targets as you might think. Frankly, he’s quite a touchdown-dependent option right now. Even still, I’ll be using Vernon in a few spots this week, as this projects to be a very high-scoring game, with the 49ers likely in catch-up mode. With that, Vernon is as likely as anyone on the 49ers offense to have a monster game.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3500 – LARRY DONNELL vs Cowboys
Did he burn you last week? Did he burn you the week before? Excellent! This mean his ownership will be extremely low, and…look at that! His price is extremely low too. Two weeks ago, the Falcons focused all their energy on stopping Donnell. Last week, the entire Giants offense was a wreck. But with Victor Cruz no longer running routes in the middle and Donnell still a big part of this offense, this price makes him an immensely enticing option. Add to that the fact that the Cowboys have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends this year, and Donnell becomes one of the best plays of the week.
Thanks for reading. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to start hitting “refresh” on this page to see if any of you comment to let me know this article helped you…or, to at least let me know you’re still around, even after last week’s hot mess!