Week 8: In Which I Choose Not To Write An Open Letter
“Should I use a plastic bag to pick up my dog’s poop, or should I use my bare hand?”
You see – some choices are easy.
“Should I select DeMarco Murray or Matt Forte this week?”
Other choices are not.
Choices – it’s really what life is all about.
My dad used to always say, “The choices you make now will affect you for the rest of your life.”
He also once told me, “The best thing you can do for your children is help them learn to make right choices.”
Choices. Everything in life is choices. Some choices are more important than others. In the grand scheme of things, actually, your daily fantasy football choices are on the bottom rung of the Choices Ladder (heck, they may even be just the pile of books holding up the ladder – although it certainly never feels that way at the time, and anyway, using a pile of books to hold up a ladder is a bad choice to begin with), but because daily fantasy football is what we focus on in this article, those are the choices we will be talking about today.
This week, I chose to do something different with the intro. Namely, I chose to pretty much scrap my original plan. (My original plan? I was going to write a wry, humorous, “Open Letter to Rayofhope.” I met Ray briefly in the Bahamas during DraftKings’ World Baseball Championship, and he seemed like a really solid dude – super humble and low-key. I also read a blog post by HeadChopper after the tournament – at which Rayofhope finished 4th, I believe, besting me by three spots – in which HeadChopper referred to Rayofhope as ‘possibly the best daily fantasy baseball player in the game,’ which is a sentiment I certainly cannot disagree with. Anyhow, the basis of the open letter had to do with the fact that Ray took down a Qualifier this last weekend for a spot in the King of the Beach tournament…a Qualifier in which I finished 2nd (yes, on the heels of a 3rd-place finish in Week 5, and another 2nd-place finish in Week 3; it’s been a few crushing weekends!). We entered Monday night with a 4-point lead on my side. I had Le’Veon Bell…and Ray had Bell and Andre Johnson. Obviously, I knew going into the night that I was sunk…but as Andre Johnson decided to camp out at 1 catch for 4 yards for most of the night, I began to believe! Yeah. Stupid of me, really. Andre notched 4 additional catches for 73 yards in the 4th quarter, knocking me down to 2nd yet again. Anyhow, back to the open letter. It was a clever intro idea, really; I was going to congratulate Ray on winning the Qualifier. I was going to go into detail about my Monday night – how my hopes of winning went from pitch black at the start of the night…to slightly dim as the night wore on…to a full-fledged ray of light – a ray of hope, if you will – by the time the fourth quarter began. I was then going to talk about how I imagined Ray glued to his television set, yelling at Andre Johnson to just get one freaking catch for 16 freaking yards so he could take down the Q…and finally, I was going to talk about how I imagined Ray’s relief when Andre finally got that catch. That night, as I went to bed – slightly disappointed, but knowing a deserving player, and a deserving roster, had won – I figured, “Hey, at least he’s happy about his Q win. Must be a good feeling he’s enjoying right now. Hopefully I’ll get it next week.” Then I woke up Tuesday, logged onto DraftKings, and saw…Rayofhope had won the freaking Millionaire Maker. What! That’s a million bucks. One million freaking dollars! – and he sure as heck was not paying attention to his paltry Qualifier sweat on Monday night, and probably could not have cared less if Andre got another catch or not! At the very least, if he was yelling anything at the television, it was surely along the lines of, “Let’s end this freaking game so I can have that million locked up!” I was going to end the open letter being like, “What the heck, bro! While you were busy winning a million bucks, I was sweating out this stupid Qualifier all by myself. A million freaking dollars? You couldn’t leave the Qualifier for me? Come on! [Imagine that ‘Come on!’ in my best Gob Bluth voice]” Yeah. That was my original plan. But I chose not to do that. I chose, instead, to explain the entire intro without actually writing it – which, come to think of it, may have been kind of a stupid choice…)
Choices.
Instead of writing one of my standard, “Try to be entertaining while also being helpful to old and new daily fantasy players alike” intros, I am going to move into the picks more quickly than normal (What’s that? – it’s not more quickly than normal, because I wasted so much time explaining what the intro was gong to be? Well, crap…). And this week, I am going to not only break down for you some of the players I will be using this week, but am also going to break down for you some of the players I will not be using, and the reason(s) why.
You see? Choices.
One of the big mistakes I see daily fantasy players making is that they fail to know why they did not select certain players. I mean, sure, they can look back and tell you after a week ends why they did not use a player, but could they tell you this before games begin on Sunday? Were you able to watch Sammy Watkins, Doug Baldwin, and Roddy White go off on Sunday and say, “That’s okay that I missed out on them, because I looked at each of those players and did not like them because of [these specific reasons]”? Or did you instead watch those guys go off and say, “Crap! Why didn’t I use them?” It’s no shame if that happened to you – in fact, I’ve had a few of those myself this season (Andre Holmes in Week 6, anyone?). But each week, as best you can, you should be looking at every single fantasy-relevant player. Don’t just find the guys you like and say, “Okay, I like these guys, now I can set my team.” Instead, look at every guy – every starting QB, every RB who will touch the ball, every WR who will get five or more targets, every TE who is on the field for the bulk of his team’s snaps – and make sure you head into that week being able to say, “I know why I did not use all the guys that I did not use.” When you can do this, big games from players who are not on your rosters will hurt a whole lot less, as you will know you had a sound and concrete reason for not using those players that week. What’s more, this approach will help to ensure that you are always attempting to pin down “this week’s points,” rather than chasing “last week’s points.”
Finally, remember what I said in last week’s post (a good post to read if you missed it, as I broke down my research strategy and my roster construction strategy; you can find that post here) about using the thoughts of others to accent your own research, rather than using the thoughts of others as the basis for your research. Just because I give you reasons below why I will be using a player or will not be using a player does not mean you definitively should or should not use them; instead, you should take this information into account, but should still stick with the players you like (and dislike) yourself, based off your own research – always making sure you know exactly why you like (or dislike) them!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the not-intro. Let’s get to this week’s picks!
Quarterbacks
Three QBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$8800 – ANDREW LUCK vs Steelers
Andrew Luck is the DeMarco Murray of the QB position! Outside of Week 2 (a respectable 19.88 points), his lowest score of the year is 24.26, and he has four games this year of 29 points or more. Best of all? No one is talking about him, and his ownership numbers are minuscule every week. To put Luck’s fantasy dominance in perspective: everyone’s favorite State Farm rep has only two games of 29 points or more, and he has games of 18, 10, and 10 on his 2014 resume. And really, that’s what my Luck love this week is all about. While everyone who plays fantasy football (and probably even some who do not) will be playing Rodgers this week, Luck makes for a perfect pivot. Even in blowouts, Luck has been throwing 40+ times, which gives him a super high floor. And his ceiling is as high as Rodgers’. Sure, Rodgers and Luck could end up scoring the same amount this week (heck, Rodgers could easily end up outscoring Luck), but it’s just good fantasy football strategy! If you can get the same floor and the same ceiling with substantially lower ownership, you take it!
$7200 – TOM BRADY vs Bears
The Bears have a bottom-10 pass coverage unit (PFF), and their pass rush is remarkably average (contrary to what you may have thought!). With my boy Brady finally sharpening into shape (that’s not a real saying – I just made it up; that would be cool, except it makes no sense), and with Gronk fully healthy, I like Brady for a big game on Sunday, at a severely discounted price.
$6300 – NICK FOLES vs Cardinals
Foles has actually been pretty bad this year. But so has the Cardinals’ pass D. What’s more, Foles and the Eagles have had a bye week to get their stuff together. In what should be a game in which the Eagles focus on the pass (facing a bottom-10 pass D and a top-10 run D? – okay!), and in what should be a high-scoring affair, I see Foles having an extremely high floor (I’d say 225 yards and 2 TD – not bad for the price!). And, of course, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. I love Foles as a tournament play this week.
Three QBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$9000 – AARON RODGERS vs Saints
Okay, so this is actually cheating a little bit. I am using Rodgers on my cash game lineup this week (in my opinion, you pretty much have to!), and I am entering that lineup in a smattering of small-stakes GPPs. So you will see Rodgers on a small percentage of my tournament lineups. And it should be noted: I love Rodgers as a player and think he is quite possibly (quite probably? – or, quite probviously) the best QB in the NFL. Want more? I think there’s a very high chance he is the highest-scoring QB of the week. How could you not think that? But his ownership is going to be ridiculously high. There are no “sure things” in football, ever (hey, I’m a Pats fan; want to talk about “sure things”? – let’s talk about the Super Bowl after the 2007 season!), and with how high Rodgers’ ownership will be, it is simply a mathematically superior play to roll out a QB who has a shot at being the highest-scoring QB of the week if Rodgers misses his mark! Even if Rodgers scores 25, you would gain a big edge if you can find 30 points with another QB, and can also have the opportunity to allocate that extra salary elsewhere! (Which is exactly why I am using 9 different QBs this week – all on rosters that are otherwise pretty much the same!)
$8400 – RUSSELL WILSON vs Panthers
The Panthers do have a horrible pass D, but I simply cannot justify using Russell this week, for three reasons. 1) I believe his ownership numbers will be higher than I would like. 2) After he was severely undervalued last week, I feel he is slightly overvalued this week. 3) I have a hunch that the Seahawks will try to reestablish their ground-game dominance. That was their modus operandi last year, and it won them a Super Bowl; the last two weeks, they have gotten away from that (largely attributable to game flow, of course, but still…), and they have gone 0-2. I think the Seahawks will run a ton on Sunday, and if they do, this will lower Russell’s ceiling quite a bit. Quite simply, there are other QBs around this same price (and below this same price) who I like a lot more.
$7000 – JAY CUTLER vs Patriots
It’s not as if everyone is on Cutler, and you’re going to read this and be like, “Oh, good point, I should get away from Cutler myself.” I mean…pretty much no one is on him this week to begin with. But in case you saw him as a sneaky play, I don’t like him. The Pats’ pass D (for all the Pats’ other faults) is The Truth – you know, like Paul Pierce, except without the weird, uncoordinated-looking jumper. I do not like Cutler for a bounce-back game here.
Running Backs
Three RBs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$8400 – ARIAN FOSTER vs Titans
As with Luck, this is all about ownership! While everyone gravitates toward DeMarco and Forte, I will be on Foster. (Side note: did you know that Foster has actually outscored DeMarco three straight weeks? All by small margins, but I would be very happy with a two or three point edge with Foster, with a slightly lower salary and substantially lower ownership numbers!) Add to the consistent carries, the passing game involvement, and the goal line looks the fact that Foster is facing a bottom-10 run D (PFF), and that the Titans are starting a rookie in his first career games (which should hopefully lead to short fields, scoring opportunities, an early lead, and clock-killing mode), and Foster is my favorite play of the week.
$7100 – MARSHAWN LYNCH vs Panthers
The concern here is that the Seahawks will have trouble adjusting to a full-fledged run game without a true FB in the mix. With a week to work through the kinks, however – and with what I expect to be a dedication to establishing a ground game (see my thoughts on Russ above) – I like Marshawn a lot. Sure, he’s had a couple consecutive disappointing weeks (“Hello, lower ownership numbers – nice to see you here”), but this is the same guy who put up games of 28, 27, and 22 through the first five weeks (four games). Against – again – a bottom-10 run D (PFF), Marshawn makes for a tremendous, hopefully-low-owned play.
$4600 – BEN TATE vs Raiders
Especially in large-field tourneys at lower buy-in levels, I expect Tate to be incredibly low-owned. While the Browns did lose Alex Mack (who accounted for about 40% of the entire line’s Top 10 run-blocking grade), they are still an extremely strong run blocking unit. While there is no clear explanation for why last week went the way it did for the Browns’ run game, it should be more of an outlier than a new “normal.” They get another crack at a bottom-10 run defense, and they are wanting to go back to using just 2 RBs, instead of trying to work 3 guys in there. That should mean back up to 22-25 carries for Tate, and it will mean massive opportunities for fantasy goodness at an extremely low ownership.
Three RBs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$8600 / $8800 – DEMARCO MURRAY / MATT FORTE vs Redskins / Patriots
Either one of these guys could be the highest-scoring RB of the week. If they are, they will not be on my teams. But if these guys fail to score a TD (not all that unlikely), or if these guys somehow get held in check (far more unlikely!), the large percentage of the field that owns them will be at a disadvantage against those who faded them and went with the same ceiling elsewhere.
$6700 – JAMAAL CHARLES vs Rams
Every week, it seems, I hear this: “Jamaal Charles did not get as many catches as I was expecting on Sunday.” You know why? Because the Chiefs are not using him in the same way they did last year! We all “know” that Jamaal is a PPR monster, but the reality is that his targets the last three weeks have looked like this: 3, 2, 3. Until the Chiefs start using him in the pass game more, I will be fading him – especially with his ownership numbers about to reach the levels they are likely to reach this week, at this price!
$5800 – LESEAN MCCOY vs Cardinals
Look – Shady McCoy is awesome. And I think he may very well end up being the best running back in the NFL throughout the second half of the season, as the bye week was surely good for him, and his O-line is finally getting back to full health. But my hope is that his ownership numbers reach a peak this week with this tough-to-pass-up price, and that the Cardinals’ stout run D holds him down. If this happens, his price should stay low, and his ownership should also be much lower next week (in a much tastier matchup, against the Texans’ beatable run D). Obviously, Shady has the talent to beat even the toughest of matchups, but I’d rather invest my salary in a pick that has a higher floor than Shady will have in this matchup.
Wide Receivers
Three WRs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$5500 – JEREMY MACLIN vs Cardinals
We as a fantasy community are a bit silly at times in the way we view things – and one of the ways in which this is especially true is the “what have you done for me lately?” approach many of us take. What has Maclin done for us lately? Last week, he was on a bye. The week before that, he put up a dud. He’s done nothing for us lately, and that will hopefully be enough to scare some people off him (heck, look at WR rankings around the Internet this week; Maclin is surprisingly low in many places!). Before his dud, he was pacing the NFL in targets, and he is one of the NFL’s leaders in TD opportunities. This is a great week to invest in Maclin – at a terrific price!
$4900 – MICHAEL FLOYD vs Eagles
If Floyd only gets the six targets he has been averaging this season, I will regret this pick. But given game flow assumptions, I expect the Cardinals to not only be passing, but to also be attempting to push the ball downfield. If that happens, Floyd could see 8 to 10 targets, and is a strong candidate for one of those “100 yard, 2 TD” games we are always attempting to identify.
$3500 – DAVANTE ADAMS vs Saints
Last week, when many of the sharpest DFS players were on Davante, I told my buddy Collin that I did not think Davante’s breakout would come until the next week. That’s this week. I stand by that prediction. In fact, I am backing it up fully by using Davante on every one of my rosters (that’s not hyperbole; I am literally using him on every single one of my rosters). With Rodgers finally set to have to throw more than 30 times, I like Davante for 8 or 9 targets, and he could easily turn this level of opportunity into 20+ points. I’m hoping many of the sharpest DFS players will be off him after he had only one target last week, and I’m hoping the bulk of DFS players will not even consider Davante because he has not yet had a breakout game. At what will likely be ownership numbers under 4%, he could be a true game changer this weekend!
Three WRs I Will NOT Be Using This Week This Week – And Why
$8000 – ANTONIO BROWN vs Colts
I love Antonio Brown. It does not get any more consistently dominant than what he has done the last couple seasons! However, this Colts secondary is for real. I do not think they will completely shut down Antonio (I don’t think anyone can!), but I also do not think he will score enough fantasy points to come close to justifying his salary.
$6100 / $6000 – BRANDON MARSHALL / ALSHON JEFFERY vs Patriots
Even at their discounted prices, I am off both these studs this week. The main reason: We have no idea how the Patriots will deploy Revis. Do you really want to select one of these guys only to discover on Sunday that the Pats decided to shadow him with Revis? Absolutely not! If Revis plays strict shadow coverage on one of these guys, the other guy could have a very good game, but I’m not going to play Russian roulette with a six-shooter that has three bullets in the chamber (I’m not a gun guy, nor am I much of a Russian roulette enthusiast; did I get those terms right?).
$4700 – DOUG BALDWIN vs Panthers
How many huge games did Doug Baldwin have last year? You see? Last year, Harvin basically did not play the entire season, and yet, Baldwin was not a jump-off-the-page fantasy asset. He will have some big games this year, but I’m not going to try to predict when they will come – especially not on a week when his ownership numbers are sure to be much higher than they should be!
Tight Ends
Three TEs I Will Be Using This Week – And Why
$5900 – ROB GRONKOWSKI vs Bears
He’s fully healthy. He’s Gronk. He’s priced at $5900. Stack him with Brady this week and enjoy both the rewards and the extra salary this leaves you!
$4000 – JORDAN REED vs Cowboys
The Cowboys – as good as they have actually been on defense – have been one of the worst teams at covering the tight end. Even with Colt McCoy coming out of retirement (What’s that? He never left the league? How about that…), I like Reed this week. As the Redskins should be playing from behind, they’ll have to throw, and Reed should have a high floor as a result, with his talent giving him an extremely high ceiling for the price.
$3200 – ZACH ERTZ vs Cardinals
Ertz is not on the field as much as we would all like, but he is still getting plenty of opportunities (targets his last three games: 6, 6, 5). The Cardinals remain one of the worst teams in the NFL against the TE, and Ertz is an extreme-upside talent. His floor, honestly, should be about 3x this salary (you can’t beat that!), and his ceiling should be much higher than that!
Three TEs I Will NOT Be Using This Week – And Why
$5600 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Packers
Sure, he’ll be used in “passing situations” and “red zone opportunities” in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game. But honestly, how did it work using Graham last week? Or how did it work using Calvin Johnson the last couple weeks that he played? When a guy is injured, you never know if the team is putting him out there as a decoy or as a true threat, and while Jimmy has a high ceiling, there are other guys – much safer guys (guys who won’t put you at risk of taking a zero!) – from whom you can reach the same ceiling.
$4300 – DELANIE WALKER vs Texans
A rookie QB making his first career start? No thanks! I’ll leave all Titans pass catchers alone.
$3800 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Rams
I was driving the Travis Kelce bandwagon at the start of the season, and even in the games in which he did not go off, he still brought a great return on his salary! I put the bandwagon on cruise control and jump-rolled out of the driver’s seat back when Kelce had to square off against Patrick Willis, however, and I have not yet gotten back on. It’s not about the usage (we all keep complaining about it, but he’s averaging 5 targets per game – which isn’t awful, especially in this price range), but it is about the matchup. For all their faults, the Rams are very strong at defending the TE. I love Kelce’s talent, but I’d rather look elsewhere this week.
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If you’ll excuse me, I’m going to make a choice to go grocery shopping now. My wife is out of town all week, and I’ve been living off Mexican carryout. It’s probably time to choose something different – maybe some prime rib, some veggies, and a few good nights of grilling.
In the meantime, you should choose to comment below if you have any comments to share, or if you have any players you are choosing this week that you think others should know about!