Week 9: In Which We Are Nice To One Another
He had partied with Kings of Leon. And Daniel Craig. The band he was in had opened for Muse in Las Vegas and toured Europe with Cage the Elephant. Everyone in Nashville – where his band was based – knew him. And yet, he was the least pretentious/pompous person – was the most humble, friendly, loving person – I had ever spent time around. He was confident, sure, but he was not cocky at all; he was not arrogant in the least.
I grew up with the guy – we were best buddies when we were kids – and we reconnected a few years ago. I went to visit him in Nashville a few times, and people stopped him to chat with him everywhere we went. No matter who stopped him to chat (regardless of whether they were “someone important” or not; regardless of whether he knew them well or not), he gave them his full time and attention. That stood out to me at the time; I learned a lot from him in those few times we got to hang out, simply from being around him. I decided, after hanging out with him, I needed to be more like that.
The first time I got to hang out with him (after more than a decade apart) was when I was embarking on the book tour for my first novel (‘The Great Lenore’ – a shameless plug! – check it out if you’re a reader…or, heck, even if you’re not!). During that book tour, I heard a lot of stories from readers about other authors they had met, or other book events they had attended; many of these stories had to do with how pompous and stuck-up these well-known authors had been. I guess there’s just something about being really good at something – it tends to get to someone’s head, and they treat people differently as a result. People who are “really good at something” often act as though they are more important than others, or are more valuable than others, as a result of their own talent in that particular area.
I don’t really have a way in which this ties into “daily fantasy sports” advice. I don’t really even have a loose connection between this intro and this week’s picks. But you know what? So what. This is something I have been thinking about this week, so it was something I wanted to talk briefly about.
Quite frankly, I am a pretty busy person. Between my work on my second novel, the fiction reading I do each day, the daily fantasy preparation I do each day, the freelance writing projects I take on, the time I spend with my wife (photographer Abby Tohline – abby_tohline on Instagram, if you’re on there!), and the travel Abby and I like to do, I do not have a whole lot of free time. And yet, I always try to encourage readers of this article to feel free to drop me a line with any questions they have (in the comments, in private messages, or even via email) – and then, I try to always offer well-thought-out responses. I’m not bragging. I’m not saying I’m some sort of “great person”; honestly, in fact, “being nice to people” is not my natural inclination. If you’d met me six or seven years ago, you would probably have wondered why I was such a jerk. I wasn’t a jerk (well…for the most part, I wasn’t a jerk), but I also had very little time for people outside my immediate circle. I used to assume the worst about people, rather than assuming the best. But I grew up. I decided it was better to be known as a guy who is always nice to others than to be known as a guy who was only nice to people he really liked.
A few weeks ago, in this space, I talked about “being generous” and “sharing daily fantasy help with others” instead of hoarding it for ourselves. I talked about how there is plenty of room at the top, and how any of you with friends who play daily fantasy sports should make sure these friends know about the valuable assets that help you perform better in daily fantasy sports (those assets, for me – as I talked about two weeks ago – are primarily RotoGrinders, RotoWorld, and FantasyPros). If you read an article on RotoGrinders that is beneficial to you, you should share that article with others! If people ask your opinion on “this player or that player,” you should think through your thoughts, and then offer the best answer you can offer.
I guess that does tie this intro into daily fantasy sports to an extent (albeit without a specific focus on this week’s picks), but really, it’s just some general “thought spillage” in which daily fantasy sports is included. Overall, however – just in life, just in general – I think this is something we should all be striving toward. We should all be open, loving, and friendly toward others. We should realize that “being really good at something” does not mean we are more valuable than someone else, as that “someone else” is surely “really good at” something else. It’s just a good way to live life. It just makes the world a better place.
I don’t have a specific word count I am tasked with hitting in this article (in fact, in every week this season, I have gone over the original word count the awesome guys at RotoGrinders and I came up with for this article!), so I don’t want to ramble on and on about this topic, or on these thoughts, simply to fill up more space. I guess I’ve said what I wanted to say. I guess I’ve gotten my point across. Basically, to summarize, my point is this: Treat people well; it’s awesome!
I’ll be out of town this weekend (flying to Boston again to see my folks, and to be at the marriage proposal of a close family friend!), so I may be late on responding to emails, messages, or comments, but I’ll do my best to be around as much as I can. And in the meantime, hopefully these thoughts will help you. As always, there is no chicanery or subterfuge in these thoughts; I am not intentionally leaving players off the list below to throw people off my scent, so to speak. These are genuinely the players I am targeting/fading this week.
Through the first seven weeks of the season, I used this space to give you my “play of the week” at each position, along with four more plays at each position, and a “sweepstakes pick” at each position. Last week, I changed things up a bit: (In case you missed last week’s post…) I used the intro to discuss the importance of choices, and then I pointed out that, each week, you should not only know WHY you are using the players you are using, but should also know why you ARE NOT using the players you are not using; along those lines, I highlighted three guys I would be using on my lineups (and why) and three guys I would not be using on my lineups (and why). Basically, I want to encourage you to do the same each week; you should look at every single fantasy-relevant player, every single week; you should know exactly why you are not using the players you are not using, as this will put you in a position to always make the best picks for your lineups, rather than putting you in a position where certain players go off and you are left saying, “Crap! Why didn’t I have that guy in my lineup?”
We are going to change things up a little bit once more this week, as I am going to give you a look at my specific notes on all fantasy-relevant players for Week 9! The guys I like the most at each position will be underlined, which will give you an idea of who I would have been pulling out for this article if I were sticking to our standard structure. But basically, this will give you a more in-depth look into my thinking for the week – regarding the players I am targeting, and the players I am fading – and will give you an idea of what your notes would maybe look like once you start taking the little bit of extra time it takes to do this yourself!
Finally, before we get started, it’s time for Qualifier Watch! I received a lot of positive vibes from many of you, wishing me luck in the King of the Beach Qualifier, after I finished 2nd in Week 3, 3rd in Week 5, and 2nd in Week 7. Was Week 8 finally the week? Nope! Things started well, with me sitting in 1st place for much of the afternoon due to my Arian Foster, Tom Brady, and Gronkowski love, but the late games unraveled for me when Maclin was not enough to carry me through my missteps of Ben Tate and Michael Floyd. It was one of those very weird weeks in which 221 points was only good enough for 7th in the Qualifier. And so, we try again this week (and let me tell you – as a non-mass-entry guy, it stings to keep getting so close, and to keep just barely falling short!). I’m going to up the karma game a bit this week. You ready for it? Here goes: If I win a Qualifier this week and then finish in one of the top 5 places in the King of the Beach tournament, I’ll do a drawing for 1% of my winnings; everyone who comments on this article before this Sunday’s games will be automatically entered! (That’s $10,000 to the winner of the drawing if I get first place in Atlantis, $3500 if I get second, $2000 if I get third, $1500 if I get fourth, and $1000 if I get fifth. Is it a long shot that I’ll finish in the top 10% in Atlantis if I make the tournament? Maybe. But exactly 61% of the teams I have entered in the Game Changer this year have finished in the top 10%, and it will be largely the same competition in Atlantis. So you never really know! Of course, step one will be actually winning a Qualifier…)
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to my standing-on-a-soapbox intro. Here are my notes on all fantasy-relevant players this week!
QUARTERBACK
Peyton Manning at Patriots – Price is too high vs. a solid pass D, on the road; I’m not taking the jump.
Tom Brady vs Broncos – Broncos have a decent pass D, but Pats won’t be able to run, and pass game has been sharp. Probably won’t quadruple value, but should come close to 30 points. (A note for readers: I would not mind going Tommy naked this week. And by that, I mean using Tommy without handcuffing him to any one receiver…rather than meaning to imply that’s a Halloween costume I am considering.)
Mike Glennon at Browns – Cleveland pass D has been weak, but so has run D; Bucs should run with Rainey/Sims and won’t pass a ton.
Brian Hoyer vs Buccaneers – Not going to pass enough to be a viable option, even vs Tampa Bay.
Carson Palmer at Cowboys – 2 touchdowns seems to be his ceiling right now; Cardinals will probably attack Cowboys largely on the ground.
Tony Romo vs Cardinals (assuming he plays) – Worth considering; tough sledding on the ground vs Arizona; Cowboys may have to pass to take a lead.
Nick Foles at Texans – Eagles should attack largely on the ground; Foles should be decent, but not a high ceiling. Watt and Clowney will make his day tough and won’t let him hit the deep bombs.
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Eagles – Eagles have a strong run D and should stack the box to stop Arian Foster, which could force Fitz to throw. Not a super high ceiling, but good value at the price. Could return 4x salary.
Michael Vick at Chiefs – He could pick up 100 yards on the ground, but he should get demolished by this pass rush. Andy Reid knows him well. Fade him and hope for high ownership on the shiny new QB available.
Alex Smith vs Jets – Chiefs will have to attack through the air somewhat, but shouldn’t need tons of volume to win. This could cap Smith’s upside.
Blake Bortles at Bengals – Worth considering; Bengals have an awful pass rush and mediocre coverage; Bortles could have time to make throws, and could do something with it. Not a player to use on a core team, but worth a flier if making lots of teams.
Andy Dalton vs Jaguars – Good matchup, and could even be high-scoring; I just don’t trust his arm enough, even assuming A.J. Green plays.
Phillip Rivers at Dolphins – Dolphins have an excellent pass rush and pretty good coverage; I think it’ll be a low-scoring game. It’s Rivers, which puts him in play, but there are probably better options out there.
Ryan Tannehill vs Chargers – I don’t trust him, especially against this solid defense; his ceiling is just not high enough.
Colt McCoy or RGIII at Vikings – A fierce defense, and either a pop-gun armed QB or a rusty QB; love the Vikings D this week, and do not love either QB.
Teddy Bridgewater vs Redskins – I wish he had shown enough at this point to make him a viable start. Great matchup, but I just can’t trust that there is a high enough ceiling.
Austin Davis at 49ers – 49ers have a solid coverage unit. Quick is out, and really, there is simply not a high percentage chance of a good game. He could have a good game, sure, but it’s not the likeliest scenario.
Collin Kaepernick vs Rams – He shredded the Rams last time. Hopefully this leads to higher ownership. Given a second shot at the same QB, defenses usually have more answers. I don’t expect Kaepernick to need to pass a ton.
Derek Carr at Seahawks – Seattle has not been getting a ton of pressure on the QB; still, I can’t stomach using a rookie QB in Seattle.
Russell Wilson vs Raiders – I have no idea how Seattle plays this game; they could attack either way, and Russ could end up having 30 points or 16.
Joe Flacco at Steelers – I’d love to use him if I wouldn’t hate to use him! A good matchup, and a good spot for a bounce back.
Ben Roethlisberger vs Ravens – High ownership vs a tremendous pass rush? No thanks.
Andrew Luck at Giants – Giants have a solid coverage unit; if Luck were $8.8k again, I’d be all over him, but $10k is steep! Better to target his pass catchers and leave him alone at this price.
Eli Manning vs Colts – It’s largely about Vontae Davis. If he’s out, I love the matchup; if he’s not, I think there may be better values.
RUNNING BACK
Ronnie Hillman at Patriots – 20+ touches every week, vs a mediocre run D that will be focused on the pass.
Shane Vereen vs Broncos – Only Pats running back worth considering this week vs a tough run D; still, floor is too low for me to like given his unpredictable usage.
Charles Sims / Bobby Rainey at Browns – Tough to say who will get the carries this week against a bad run defense. Makes it tough to use either, and anyway, the Bucs run blocking is as bad as the Browns run D.
Ben Tate vs Buccaneers – Cleveland’s run blocking has been too awful the last couple weeks to trust them, even vs an atrocious run D. And anyway, I could see Tate losing more carries this week to West and/or Crowell. Crowell is the most talented runner of the bunch.
Andre Ellington at Cowboys – Cowboys weakness is on the ground; too bad Arizona has bad run blocking. Lots of volume for Ellington, at about 3 yards per carry. But this is a good spot for a big game.
DeMarco Murray vs Cardinals – Price is sky-high, and Arizona run D is elite. DeMarco will probably have yet another big game, but he will not come close to returning value this week.
LeSean McCoy at Texans – Houston with a bottom-5 rated run D; Eagles will attack on the ground. Blowup game for LeSean, and I don’t even care that his ownership will be excessively high. Even if he were 70% owned, he has a higher-than-70% chance of quadrupling his salary, which still leaves him in play.
Arian Foster vs Eagles – Price is sky-high, and the Eagles have a good run D and are likely to stack the box and force Fitz to throw. Hopefully his ownership will be up after his big game last week, and a large chunk of people will spend 20% of their salary on one player who has a good-but-not-great-for-the-price game.
Chris Ivory at Chiefs – KC run D is subpar, but Ivory may not have a lot of chances to run.
Jamaal Charles vs Jets – #1-rated run D in the NFL, by a large margin. Charles is not worth the price, even with his big game potential.
Denard Robinson at Bengals – Bengals have a bottom-5 run D, but Jacksonville still can’t run block; 20 touches makes him very worth watching, but his floor is probably lower than other 20-touch backs.
Gio Bernard vs Jaguars – I think the Bengals will take it somewhat easy on Gio – maybe only 15 touches; no go for me.
UPDATE: Gio Bernard has officially been ruled out this week.
Branden Oliver at Dolphins – Miami has an elite run D; not a great week to use Oliver, even with his pass game usage.
Lamar Miller vs Chargers – Miami is so adamant about limiting his touches; until that changes, he will continue to not fit into what I look for in a running back.
Alfred Morris at Vikings – Minnesota has a top run D. No pass game involvement and a top run D takes Alf out of mix for me this week. (A note for readers: Keep in mind that, in addition to looking for guys who can quadruple salary, I like to always ask, “Does this guy have the potential to notch 100 yards and 2 TDs?” If the answer is no, I generally try to avoid them. Alf could quadruple his low salary this week, but I do not see him having “win you this week on his own” upside.)
Jerick McKinnon vs Redskins – Redskins have a bottom-5 run D according to Pro Football Focus, McKinnon’s touches are up, and his ownership should be low because the Redskins haven’t given up a ton of fantasy points to RBs. Great play this week that could go off for a huge game. Only concern is the low TD opportunities.
Rams RBs at 49ers – I have no clue who will get carries, and Jeff Fisher may not know either. Probably no one will have more than 12 or 14 touches.
49ers RBs vs Rams – Once more, I have no clue who will get carries; probably neither Gore nor Hyde will have more than 15 touches.
Darren McFadden at Seahawks – Not in play against the Seahawks still-elite run D.
Marshawn Lynch vs Raiders – Will he ever get 20 carries in a game again? Sheesh! Oakland run D is subpar; Marshawn is worth considering, but he may be too unpredictable to rely on until we see them start using him more.
Justin Forsett at Steelers – 20 touches again for him; no goal line touches, though. He’s worth strong consideration, but no TD threat. Could get the same thing from McKinnon for less.
Le’Veon Bell vs Ravens – Facing an elite run D with his price (and likely his ownership) going up; probably best to look elsewhere – his ceiling is still high, but his floor this week is too low for me to like him, especially with a spike in ownership.
Ahmad Bradshaw at Giants – Even when T-Rich was out, they limited his touches; not a consideration for me. Hopefully everyone will keep using him because of the TDs, and he will be kept out of the end zone.
Andre Williams vs Colts – Colts have a subpar run D, but Williams has looked like a subpar player so far. He’s talented, but I’d rather miss a big game from him than try to guess when he’ll have one.
WIDE RECEIVER
Demaryius Thomas at Patriots – Revis. Yeah.
Emmanuel Sanders at Patriots – I don’t trust any Denver WRs this week.
Wes Welker at Patriots – I don’t trust any Denver WRs this week.
Brandon LaFell vs Broncos – Heavy focus on him from Denver D, I think; he could still have a big game, but I’d rather look elsewhere.
Julian Edelman vs Broncos – I think he goes back to being a focal point this week, and his price has dropped severely. Broncos will be focused on LaFell and Gronk, which could open things for Edelman underneath.
Vincent Jackson at Browns – He should have Haden covering him; Haden is coming around again, so I really don’t like the matchup.
Mike Evans at Browns – He’s a viable option with Skrine or Gilbert likely covering him. Targets are still low, but he is strongly in consideration given the price.
Andrew Hawkins vs Buccaneers – He’s the only viable option among Cleveland’s WRs for fantasy; still, TD upside is so low! I can find a higher ceiling elsewhere.
Larry Fitzgerald at Cowboys – Ownership will soar, and Cardinals pass game probably won’t do a ton as they attack on the ground.
Michael Floyd at Cowboys – Tempting at the price, but targets are just so inconsistent; go with a sure thing elsewhere instead.
Dez Bryant vs Cardinals – I think the Cowboys attack through the air; big week for Dez, worth the price with so few sure things available this week – and even better if Weeden starts. Ownership will plummet if Weeden is under center, and Weeden will likely lean on Dez heavily, giving him just as high of a ceiling.
Terrance Williams vs Cardinals – His targets are simply not consistent enough to consider him.
Jeremy Maclin at Texans – His ownership will be too high; he won’t duplicate last week, and I expect the Eagles to attack on the ground.
DeAndre Hopkins vs Eagles – I love him for 10 targets in a game where the Texans will have to pass, vs a mediocre pass D. (Note to readers: I mentioned this on Twitter this week, but it’s worth mentioning on here since I’m hardly ever on Twitter and since, consequently, no one follows me on Twitter: Sometimes, it’s beneficial to pivot off the WR everyone is talking about to use his counterpart instead; last week, that would have meant using Fitzgerald over Floyd, and this week it could mean using DeAndre over Andre. Andre’s targets are more consistent, but DeAndre could lead in targets on any given week and generally has a higher ceiling than Andre anyway.)
Andre Johnson vs Eagles – Same as DeAndre; I love him for 10 targets in a game where the Texans will have to pass, vs a mediocre pass D.
Jets WRs at Chiefs – I don’t trust anyone here – not Decker, not Kerley, not Harvin, even after 9 targets last week; not vs KC, in KC.
KC WRs vs Jets – Even with the Jets bad pass D, can’t trust Bowe, Hemingway, or anyone else to have a high enough ceiling.
Jacksonville WRs at Bengals – Jacksonville’s D has played a couple good weeks, and the Bengals offense has been inconsistent; this may mean there is not enough garbage time goodness for the Jaguars WRs.
Mohamed Sanu / A.J. Green vs Jaguars – I like the Bengals WRs this week, given the matchup, but their price is too high for me compared to some of the better values on the board. I don’t hate them, but I’m looking elsewhere.
San Diego WRs at Dolphins – Their usage is too unpredictable in this spread-the-wealth offense; there is no way to know who will get the volume/TDs.
Mike Wallace vs Chargers – He is worth considering vs SD, with most people overlooking him; injuries in the San Diego secondary could help him finally have a huge game, although his targets are not nearly as high as I would like to see, or as people seem to assume.
Redskins WRs at Vikings – Not worth using with Colt McCoy, or with RGIII in his first game back; Minnesota has a solid pass D; there are simply better plays on the board.
Vikings WRs vs Redskins – Wright, Cordarrelle, Jennings? Who knows who will get the targets; I can’t bring myself to do it, even vs Washington.
Rams WRs at 49ers – Against San Fran? No thanks, especially with Quick out. Someone will pick up some points, but there is really no way to know who it will be.
Michael Crabtree vs Rams – No way to know his volume will be any higher here after two weeks to prepare for this game. Too big of a risk, without really a ton of upside, given his usage to date.
Anquan Boldin vs Rams – He dominated St. Louis a couple weeks ago, but who knows; possession WRs have lower upside, so I just can’t see relying on him in a GPP.
Andre Holmes at Seahawks – He could break free for some long gains vs Seattle. He’s at least worth considering; he has still been heavily involved.
James Jones at Seahawks – Right now, there are really just not enough TD opportunities for him. Lots of targets, but low TD opportunities caps his ceiling.
Seahawks WRs vs Raiders – No one really has consistent enough targets to make me want to use them.
Steve Smith Sr. at Steelers – Hmmm, on Sunday Night Football, facing a bad pass D? He could have a game. He had 9 targets last week and is averaging 8.6 per game; still, he’s old and slow, which limits the appeal.
Torrey Smith at Steelers – Zero targets last week; right now, it’s impossible to use him in daily fantasy when he is getting such inconsistent usage on the field.
Antonio Brown vs Ravens – His price is so freaking high; he’s worth considering, especially with Jimmy Smith out, but I just can’t see spending that much, especially when there are no super-cheap guys I love, to help offset the high price.
Markus Wheaton / Martavis Bryant vs Ravens – Their targets are too inconsistent with how high their prices have now climbed. Hopefully their ownership will go up and it will be a slow game for each (although they did look very good on Sunday – minus the fact that Bryant catches every stinking pass with his body, instead of with his hands).
T.Y. Hilton at Giants – As close to a sure thing as there is, even vs a solid coverage unit, and even at the price. So many targets, and so much explosiveness. Low TD opportunities limits the appeal a bit, but the fact that he can score from anywhere on the field sure helps.
Donte Moncrief at Giants – If Wayne is out again, Moncrief could have high usage again; worth consideration, in fact, even if Wayne is back.
Rueben Randle vs Colts – If Vontae Davis is out, he’s a great option; even if Vontae Davis plays, however, Randle should see most of his snaps on the opposite side of the field from Davis. There should be plenty of targets, and he’s near the top of the league in TD opportunities.
Odell Beckham vs Colts – His targets are still very low. The TDs will regress. His ownership should be up. Really, it’s not a great week to use him, although I do like his talent at this price.
TIGHT END
Julius Thomas at Patriots – The Pats are bad at covering TEs; still, however, his targets are so low for the price! If he doesn’t get the TDs, he pretty much puts up a dud.
Rob Gronkowski vs Broncos – Wow, that price got really high; he’s definitely worth considering, but I can probably find better value elsewhere.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins at Browns – Four or five targets per game, and hasn’t gone over 60 yards yet; would love to use him, but the time is not quite right.
Jordan Cameron vs Buccaneers – Likely to miss with a concussion; have to assume he won’t be playing.
Arizona TEs at Cowboys – Arizona’s TEs are nonexistent in this offense.
Jason Witten vs Cardinals – A dangerous fade after he emerged on Monday night, and is now facing the Cardinals; he’ll absorb a lot of ownership – probably a higher percentage of ownership than the percentage I feel certain he’ll return value. It doesn’t feel great to fade him, but I’ll look elsewhere.
Zach Ertz at Texans – He’s in play, but there is better value elsewhere in this price range, given his inconsistent usage.
Houston TEs vs Eagles – No one in this group is consistent enough to consider using right now.
Jace Amaro at Chiefs – He’s worth thinking about, I guess, but I don’t want to trust any Jets at KC.
Travis Kelce vs Jets – He’s getting six targets every game; that could be enough to shred the Jets this week.
Clay Harbor at Bengals – He’s very much in play vs the Bengals; he has the athleticism to make some big plays.
Jermaine Gresham vs Jaguars – He is used in such a low-ceiling way, I cannot use him – even against the Jags.
Antonio Gates at Dolphins – I have a feeling he has a big game this week, but most of the data does not back that up. At least he gets all the red zone looks…
Charles Clay vs Chargers – San Diego is great against TEs, and Clay doesn’t create enough separation to warrant usage in this matchup.
Jordan Reed at Vikings – He’s the only Washington pass catcher really in play for me, especially after Monday night was relatively quiet; he could have a fine game vs Minnesota.
Chase Ford vs Redskins – Not a serious consideration, as he simply does not have the sort of playmaking ability I want to find.
Jared Cook / Lance Kendricks at 49ers – These guys are splitting too much value between the two of them for me to be able to consider one of them.
Vernon Davis vs Rams – St. Louis is great against TEs, and Vernon Davis has been, honestly, pretty bad lately.
Mychal Rivera at Seahawks – He does not possess enough after-catch (or even before-catch) talent to make him worth using vs Seattle, in Seattle.
Luke Willson vs Raiders – Not enough targets to warrant using him.
Ravens TEs at Steelers – Even if it’s Owen Daniels back, I don’t want to rely on him to get enough volume.
Heath Miller vs Ravens – Not dynamic enough before or after the catch; he will have a tough time vs Baltimore.
Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener at Giants – They are splitting too much value and are too touchdown-dependent to rely on either one of them.
Larry Donnell vs Colts – He is a solid option, especially if this becomes a shootout. He could snag a solid number of passes over the middle.
That’s what I have for you fine fellas today! Hopefully some of that helps you set your perfect lineups for this week. And remember – comment below if you want to be entered into the “If JMToWin A) wins a Qualifier this week, and B) finishes in the top 10% in Atlantis, I get paid” drawing.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go be nice to people. Because it’s just fun to do.