Weekend Betting Guide: Picks for NFL, CFB, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA & More
Life seems way too good to be true right now with every single sport playing at the same time. College Football, the Premier League, and the NFL all start back up this weekend and nothing could possibly make me happier. When we temporarily lost sports in March, I promised myself I’d never take them for granted again. So, in the spirit of gratefulness, I’m giving eight sports betting for this weekend in eight different leagues. Let’s go.
Weekend Sports Betting Odds and Picks
PGA – Tom Hoge (+120) vs. Mark Hubbard (DK Sportsbook)
My basic rule of golf matchup betting is that there’s such a high level of variance that you’d be stupid not to take the underdog in a head-to-head matchup between any two professional golfers. Hoge’s 0.322 strokes gained: tee to green is better than Hubbard’s (0.095) this season, so he has a slight edge in what I’d consider the most important statistic for this weekend. On top of that, he shot 6-under yesterday despite a bogey on his second hole, edging Hubbard (-4) by two strokes. I think there’s a little better than a 50% chance that Hoge wins this matchup, so he’s a solid bet at +120.
NBA – Clippers/Nuggets OVER 216
I like this pick for a couple reasons. The first (and most important) is that it’s a Friday night so nobody wants to bet an under. This game tips off at 6:30 EST. I want to sit down, have a couple cocktails, and just simply root for the ball to go through the hoop as many times as possible.
The second (more rational) reason, is that this total is the result of recency bias. These two teams were only able to muster up the courage to score 181 points on Wednesday night, so people will naturally check that total and believe there’s no way they could score an additional 36 points tonight. The total going into Game 4 was 221.5. We are getting a discount on this total based on the result of one single game. I love this over.
NHL – Lightning/Islanders OVER 5
I like this one literally for the exact same reasons I just mentioned for the Clippers/Nuggets over. These teams only scored 3 goals on Wednesday but they took a combined 49 shots. Game 1 on Monday was 8-2. I think it’s another high scoring affair. I’m hammering the over.
MLB – Jake Cronenworth to hit a Homerun (+850 on FD Sportsbook)
Little bit of a longshot here, but Jake Cronenworth has a 55.8% hard contact rate and a 94 mph average exit velocity against right-handed pitching this season and he gets a nice matchup against Johnny Cueto tonight. Cueto has given up a 40% hard contact rate to left-handed batters this season and has allowed 40% fly balls. Cronenworth only has 4 dingers this season because of his low fly ball rate (31.2% vs. RHP), but Cueto should help him lift the ball in the air tonight. This is tremendous value at +850.
Tennis – Alexander Zverev (-300) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
This is just easy money today. Zverev is objectively better and 6 years younger than Mr. Carreno Busta. It’s not fun to lay the -300, but parlaying it with any other bets you like will give you a little extra juice.
Sports Betting Picks for Saturday and Sunday
Premier League – West Ham +100 vs. Newcastle
Michail Antonio probably pours in at least 5 goals in this game. I love the Irons at even money. For more EPL odds & picks, check out Chris Altruda’s EPL Betting Preview.
College Football – Pitt -27.5 vs. Austin Peay
Pitt has something to prove coming into this season after a disappointing 2019 campaign. They are also presented with a unique opportunity to spend most of this season in the top-25 since there are fewer power-5 schools to compete with this year. The Panthers are returning plenty of their roster from last season and they should improve significantly on both sides of the ball. Austin Peay just lost to Central Arkansas. I think Pitt wins this game by 42+ points.
NFL – Falcons +2.5 vs. Seahawks
This is my favorite pick of the opening weekend by a large margin. People are all over the Seahawks this year because that’s just what people do. These two teams are equally talented and the Seahawks have to travel across the country to play a game that starts at 10am Seattle Time. This will be a statement win for the most forgotten team in the NFC South.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images