Weekly Sporer Report: Week 9
Welcome to the Weekly Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are scheduled to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Max Scherzer | CHC | Sun | Gets the Cubs again after seven shutout innings and 13 Ks v. them last Wed. |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez | TB | Sat | The one fantasy aspect where he often struggles, wins, has been awesome this year (8-1) |
| 3 | Felix Hernandez | NYY | Mon | Yanks aren’t an easy matchup, but Felix is matchup-proof, espec. at home (0.81 WHIP at home) |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | at ATL | Sun | Just keeps acing: 2.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 26% K rate, 5.8 K:BB ratio in 33.3 IP during May |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | STL | Sat | He’s been himself at home: 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 38% K rate, and 8.2 K:BB ratio in 32.7 IP |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | STL | Sun | Dominating both home and road, but the frontend of his two start week is in Coors |
| 7 | Max Scherzer | TOR | Tue | Max owns Toronto throughout his career w/a 1.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 51 Ks in 48.3 IP |
| 8 | Corey Kluber | at KC | Wed | KC has returned to earth w/25th wOBA v. RH in May; Klubot fully activated: 42% K in last four |
| 9 | Chris Archer | at SEA | Sun | Three 4 BB gms in May were a little alarming, but still ran off a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 35.7 IP |
| 10 | Cole Hamels | CIN | Wed | Had a 5.00 ERA thru 3 starts, has 2.24 ERA in 56.3 IP since w/58 Ks and a 1.07 WHIP |
| 11 | Matt Harvey | at ARI | Thu | Returned from the dead arm disaster w/a solid effort v. MIA that had one bad inning |
| 12 | Madison Bumgarner | at PHI | Sat | The Ks are really the only missing element in terms of MadBum being a super-ace |
| 13 | Gerrit Cole | at SF | Mon | SF much better offensively than expected, but more damage on road (23rd in wOBA at home) |
| 14 | David Price | at CWS | Fri | Kind of the AL’s Bumgarner as Ks are the only thing keeping him from a top 5 ranking regularly |
| 15 | Jake Arrieta | at WAS | Thu | Don’t be fooled by the 3.99 ERA in May, he still had a 28% K rate and 6.0 K:BB ratio; total stud |
| 16 | Dallas Keuchel | BAL | Thu | Bookended May w/8 & 11 K gms; Ks aren’t a staple in his game, but also far from devoid of ‘em |
| 17 | Chris Sale | at TEX | Wed | TEX is smashing LH this year (3rd in wOBA), but Sale is rolling: 1.71 ERA, 40 Ks in last 31.7 IP |
| 18 | Andrew Cashner | NYM | Mon | Road warrior in May w/4 of 5 away from Petco; returns to face anemic NYM (29th in wOBA v. RH) |
| 19 | Jordan Zimmermann | CHC | Sat | Has fully washed off the stink of that 7 ER dud at BOS; 22% K rate in last three matchup ’14 rate |
| 20 | A.J. Burnett | at SF | Tue | SF is first in wOBA v. RH on the road (.344), but drop to 23rd (.307) at home |
| 21 | Francisco Liriano | at SF | Wed | SF is second in wOBA v. LH on the road (.352), but drop to 18th (.317) at home |
| 22 | Chris Archer | at LAA | Tue | LAA coming out of their funk v. RH? 28th in wOBA for season, but 6th in last two weeks |
| 23 | Jon Lester | at MIA | Wed | A lot less talk about him holding runners when he’s dropping a 1.76 ERA in six May starts |
| 24 | Jacob deGrom | at SD | Mon | Better or even with all of his key indicators from ’14 now has 203 career IP of 2.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP |
| 25 | Andrew Cashner | at CIN | Sun | CIN is dangerous at home, but Cash’s 1.3 HR/9 is misleading after 3 in ’15 debut (0.9 HR/9 since) |
| 26 | James Shields | NYM | Wed | First HR-free gm in last eight came v. super-hot PIT team (3rd in wOBA v. RH for May) |
| 27 | Garrett Richards | TB | Mon | TB has 30% K rate on righty sliders, Richards’ out pitch; he’s generating a 38% K rate w/his |
| 28 | Michael Pineda | at SEA | Mon | Even w/KC shellacking, still had a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in May w/35 Ks and 11.7 K:BB in 33 IP |
| 29 | Johnny Cueto | at PHI | Tue | Hasn’t pitched since 19th, but great matchup; use this as a judge to decide on Sun’s start, too |
| 30 | Jacob deGrom | at ARI | Sun | You may’ve noticed that ARI isn’t a walkover offense, but they blast LH; average v. RH |
| 31 | Michael Pineda | LAA | Sun | Upside remains massive as he showed in his rebound v. KC 6.7 IP/1 ER w/8 Ks last time out |
| 32 | Garrett Richards | at NYY | Sun | Richards has always had good HR suppression so a trip to the Bronx isn’t as scary for him |
| 33 | Sonny Gray | at DET | Wed | How real are the Ks? 15% in first three, 31% in next five, & 18% in last three; tough matchup, too |
| 34 | Lance Lynn | MIL | Tue | Seems to have that 5-6 ER outing once every 5-6 starts, no real rhyme or reason for when & why |
| 35 | Danny Salazar | BAL | Sat | K% suggest stud & price is rising, but still a bit inconsistent (4.04 May ERA), usually bc of HRs (1.3) |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Jason Hammel | at MIA | Mon | A staple from Week 5 report, since first reco: 2.09 ERA, 42 Ks, & 7.0 K:BB in 43 IP |
| 2 | Noah Syndergaard | at SD | Tue | Schedule gods continue to bless him as SD has gone into the tank w/26th wOBA in May |
| 3 | Jesse Chavez | at BOS | Fri | Looking like last year’s iteration: 2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 21% K rate as a starter (53 IP) |
| 4 | Kyle Hendricks | at MIA | Tue | Last 4: 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 4.2 K:BB ratio despite a 5.7 IP/5 ER mixed in there |
| 5 | Drew Hutchison | HOU | Sat | Maddeningly inconsistent, but the high-K Astros have gotten him on track before |
| 6 | Carlos Martinez | at LAD | Fri | Gabey threatened to take out my dog if I didn’t get CarMart on here in a positive light |
| 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | MIN | Wed | Great debut from the lefty vs. a tough TEX team; MIN no slouch v. LH (8th in WOBA) |
| 8 | Edinson Volquez | CLE | Fri | I’m buying this more than his PIT performance last year as the skills have improved |
| 9 | Hector Santiago | TB | Wed | Really big May starting to convince me: 2.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 35 Ks in 38.3 IP |
| 10 | Tsuyoshi Wada | at WAS | Fri | Is K surge legit? Not entirely (31% thru three), but he wasn’t devoid of Ks last yr (20%) |
| 11 | Clay Buchholz | MIN | Mon | I’m his biggest skeptic, but can’t ignore 2.48 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.7 K:BB ratio in last 4 |
| 12 | Mike Wright | at HOU | Tue | Had his first hiccup, but the stuff has really impressed compared to scouting reports |
| 13 | Matt Shoemaker | at NYY | Sat | Back-to-back HR-free outings; solid 3.20 ERA in last four despite a 6 IP/7 ER in there |
| 14 | Chase Anderson | NYM | Fri | Tough outing at MIL, but 11 of his 22 ER have come in two starts; dominant in other 8 |
| 15 | J.A. Happ | TB | Fri | Panning out as expected w/excellent home work – 2.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 31.3 home IP |
| 16 | Rubby de la Rosa | ATL | Wed | LH kill him (.900 OPS) so just IBB Freeman every time |
| 17 | Nick Martinez | CWS | Wed | Adding intrigue: 1.47 ERA, 10% in first 6 starts; 2.84 ERA, 18% K in last 4 |
| 18 | Charlie Morton | at ATL | Fri | Ks always a struggle, but he’s better than a 10% rate (19% in ’14); elite GB drives value |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | at COL | Mon | This is where DFS differs most from season-long: not sitting these two in season-long… |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | at COL | Tue | …but at their prices, it just doesn’t make any sense to mess with them in Coors |
| 3 | Chris Sale | at TEX | Wed | TEX is smashing LH this year (3rd in wOBA), but Sale is rolling: 1.71 ERA, 40 Ks in last 31.7 IP |
| 4 | Chris Archer | at LAA | Tue | LAA coming out of their funk v. RH? 28th in wOBA for season, but 6th in last two weeks |
| 5 | Michael Wacha | at LAD | Thu | They handed Wacha his first L last week, but at least he fanned 7 in 5.7 IP |
| 6 | Lance Lynn | at LAD | Sun | Too regularly has the big dud mixed in and this is a team that can drop one on anybody |
| 7 | Collin McHugh | at TOR | Sun | HR-happy in May (1.9) so heading to TOR could be tough, but 7 IP/2 ER/9 Ks v. them on 5/17 |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around.
I took a couple weeks off from the bullpens as I was trying to figure out the most effective way to deliver this info and I realized it was just better to go with a full ranking of them. In the future, I won’t necessarily comment on every single unit, especially if they’re essentially status quo, but for today’s you get something on every one of them:
| RK | TEAM | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | KC | Davis, Madson, Herrera | Unfazed by Holland struggles (more BB than K) thanks to absurd depth |
| 2 | NYY | Miller, Betances, Shreve | Betances opened w/2 BB in each of first 3 app.; has 5 in 21 app. since (0.00 ERA) |
| 3 | LAD | Jansen, Garcia, Nicasio | Fourth-lightest workload means they can lean on pen while backend of staff is fixed |
| 4 | HOU | Gregerson, Harris, Neshek | Key components are all new to HOU and a huge reason they’re in first place |
| 5 | STL | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness | Mix of powers arms and crafty groundballers leaves opposition off balance |
| 6 | TB | Boxberger, McGee, Geltz | The Boxy-McGee combo could rival Miller-Betances for the Rays |
| 7 | NYM | Familia, C.Torres, A.Torres | Ridiculous pitching depth top-to-bottom has kept team afloat |
| 8 | BAL | Britton, O’Day, Brach | Oliver Drake was elite in AAA and could be another force for them |
| 9 | PIT | Melancon, Watson, Hughes | Melancon has allowed 1 ER in last 16 outings, but just 8 Ks says not all is right yet |
| 10 | WAS | Storen, Barrett, Treinen | Roark shifting to rotation might not hurt that much as his ERA was set to regress |
| 11 | SF | Casilla, Romo, Kontos | They allow too much contact for my liking, but it’s often weak, groundball contact |
| 12 | CHC | Rondon, Strop, Rosscup | Eighth-best in GB% for bullpens; maybe they can teach Rosscup (36% GB, 1.5 HR/9) |
| 13 | SD | Kimbrel, Maurer, Benoit | Kimbrel has surprisingly been the weak link at the backend, but still a lot to like here |
| 14 | CWS | Robertson, Duke, Jennings | What they lack in Ks, they make up for in GB% w/four 60+% guys (Jennings at 69%) |
| 15 | SEA | Rodney, Smith, Farquhar | They haven’t matched last year’s huge success, but they are still capable as a unit |
| 16 | CIN | Chapman, Cingrani, Diaz | Only one real stud and entirely too many BBs to be a trustworthy unit |
| 17 | MIA | Ramos, Dyson, Morris | Ramos cancels out Cishek’s awfulness; Dyson sneaky good w/24% K and 68% GB |
| 18 | MIL | K-Rod, Smith, Blazek | HRs sinking this unit w/1.1 HR/9 that sits as sixth-highest in MLB |
| 19 | LAA | Street, Smith, Salas | Smith’s 3.57 ERA should be at least a run lower given his great skills |
| 20 | TOR | Cecil, Osuna, Loup | Cecil logged a whopping one SV in May and not because he sucked (1.13 ERA, 32% K) |
| 21 | CLE | Allen, Shaw, McAllister | Allen might be coming out of his funk finally: 1.50 ERA, 0.83 ERA, 8 Ks, 1 BB in last 6 IP |
| 22 | PHI | Papelbon, Giles, De Fratus | Too many base runners, especially via the free pass (league-worst 11% BB rate) |
| 23 | ATL | Grilli, J.Johnson, Martin | Major drop off after the three key components; Grilli has been a K machine (32%) |
| 24 | DET | Soria, Nesbitt, Wilson | Some better results, but just not enough swings-and-misses to be a top unit |
| 25 | OAK | Clippard, Scribner, Otero | Doolittle’s return was short-lived and Clippard has been wholly unspectacular |
| 26 | MIN | Perkins, Graham, Pressley | Tough to get excited about anyone outside of the three key components |
| 27 | ARI | Ziegler, Reed, Delgado | Reed nearing a return to the closer’s role tells you how good this bullpen is |
| 28 | COL | Axford, Betancourt, Friedrich | Betancourt has been amazing, but Axford’s 0.64 is a mirage |
| 29 | BOS | Uehara, Tazawa, Barnes | Can Uehara and Tazawa just throw three innings every single day? |
| 30 | TEX | Tolleson, Kela, Claudio | Tolleson into the closer’s role is a great upgrade from Feliz; still lame as a whole |