Welcome To Summer: MLS Edition June 5th, 2015
Welcome to Summer.
Welcome to no more EPL or Bundesliga. If you’re like me, you go into a semi-depression when the EPL ends and your favorite team isn’t in the Champions League final. Well, this year I’ve discovered MLS, and honestly, while the quality of play gets a lot of heat from some football purists that is sub-par as compared to the European Leagues, the competition itself has been excellent and the games are very entertaining to watch. If you happened to play the Wednesday night slate, you were able to witness some exciting games with ten goals scored in three games, it was a fun sweat for all involved. I sat out in my back yard with a nice summer shandy and my tablet and streamed the games on MLS Live and watched my lineups jump around with each passing moment of action. It was a good evening.
Welcome to Summer.
Welcome to nonstop soccer everywhere you look. The Women’s World Cup starts up in Canada tomorrow, and the Champions League ends on the same day. Copa America starts up on the 11th of this month. There will be tons of soccer going on over the next few weeks and in case you didn’t know already, MLS will be going strong all through it. After all, it’s summer.
So why do I bring all this up? Two very important words that you must keep in mind when setting MLS lineups this summer are “squad rotation”. Throughout the summer, teams will rotate players in and out of their starting lineups as transfer windows open up, and some of the better talents head off to fulfill national team duties. Also we’ll see some teams rest players during double game weeks (we saw this with Columbus earlier on Wednesday when practically their entire team was reserves, they ended up losing to Philadelphia 3-0)
Welcome to Summer.
DraftKings has some nifty summer tournaments going on, and Mondogoal is kicking off some co-ed leagues to keep you playing all through the summer. Go check them out, these guys are working hard, and you know you love playing some Daily Fantasy! So without further Ado, let’s get to some analysis.
The Saturday Slate
A couple of quick notes to take into the weekend of games, As noted above, international duty and double game weeks will come into play more often than not this summer. Columbus rested a bunch of regulars Wednesday, so they’re likely going to go all out this time. Also important to note early in the MLS season, is that home field advantage is very real. Over the season so far, only one team has a positive goal difference (Seattle) away from home, and of all the games that have been played so far, approximately only ~22% of away teams were able to hold the home team scoreless, and it has been trending downwards for the month of May. This tells me to really favor home teams in good matchups regardless of the opponent as well as favoring heavy home favorites for the goalkeeper and defense positions.
Weather
I’m not a weatherman, but I can look at a radar and tell if there is rain expected in a region or not. MLS has shown this season (twice) that they are willing to delay or postpone a game if there is lightning threatening the area. It’s much too early to tell if weather will impact any of these games, but you should keep a look out when the time draws near.
Goalkeepers
With seven games on the Saturday slate, there are two rather large favorites that I think it would be smart to target their goalkeepers. The first of those is Columbus’ Steve Clark who comes in at a very hefty price tag of $6,200 on DraftKings. Clark played the previous match on the road to Philadelphia and conceded three goals. That along with a quick look at his player card would make anybody shy away from taking Clark in this slate. However, his opponent, the Montreal Impact have not managed to score a single goal away from home this season and are winless in their last 21 away games. Some may argue that their luck will change, but Columbus has proven to be a different team at home than they have been on the road.
If you’re more risk averse and choose to save some salary on goalie, I would highly recommend going with LA Galaxy keeper Brian Rowe, at a highly discounted price of $3,500. Rowe is a spot starter with Penedo being out due to international call-up to the Panama national team. Rowe is facing a Vancouver team that has failed to win in their last three away matches and coming off an emotional loss against Montreal. Other options at Goalkeeper are Philadelphia’s Brian Sylvestre (safe and slightly cheap at $4,700) and Chris Konopka for Toronto (GPP option on the road for $3,400)
Defenders
The best bet for defenders this week is to wait on lineups to come out on Wednesday and to try to target the full backs or wing defenders for teams that are favorites. This week every single home team is a favorite in Vegas and only two road teams are expected to be a challenge (Toronto and FC Dallas)
So who are my top defenders?
Chris Tierney, New England Revolution $5,200 – As far as defenders go, Tierney is above average, but when it comes to fantasy we care more about what a player can do on the opposite end of the field. Tierney should be back from a red card suspension and he should still be able to contribute on crosses. New England are a tough team to pin down for clean sheets, but Tierney is involved in offense and has the potential to deliver an assist or find his way to a goal.
Jeff Larentowicz, Chicago Fire $5,900 – Larentowicz is the most expensive defender on the slate and for good reason, he has three goals in his last five matches and will routinely take shots and be involved in the attack. For his price, it’s a bit of a risk as he can disappear as well, but there is no reason to shy away from using him if you can afford him.
The other options at defense come from the wings for the goalies I highlighted earlier, Waylon Francis, Jeovin Jones, Fabinho. The best bet for value comes from cheap spot starters for home teams expected to push the pace to get all three points.
Midfielders
Pedro Morales, Vancouver $8,600 – One of the most talented midfielders in the game, Porales has the potential to score a goal and threaten in limited minutes. If he gets the full 90 minutes he’s virtually guaranteed a double digit outing fantasy wise. The only concern is that Vancouver have sort of lost their recent form and might be in trouble going to LA for a second match in a week. The good news is Morales only played 16 minutes on Wednesday, the bad news is the Galaxy will be well rested. But that’s a risk I’ll be taking in my lineups.
Harry Shipp, Chicago $8,500 – Home teams are in good spots in MLS. That’s something we’ll continue to see every week including this one. Shipp will anchor a Chicago midfield that should look to win this matchup with Orlando. Look for Shipp to deliver some crosses and put the pressure on Orlando to stay in their midfield in what could be a close match with just a goal or two separating the two sides.
Christian Maidana, Philadelphia $7,400 – Maidana has been a crossing machine and might be in one of the best spots this week playing against a weak NYC FC squad that is in last place with only 1 win and no wins on the road. Maidana has the numbers in his favor as he has 12.2% of the total touches for this Union team. He’s also coming off three straight double digit scores and an assist in his last match.
Other Midfielders: Graham Zusi (Kansas City, $6,700), Kaka (Orlando $11,800), Justin Meram (Columbus, $8,700), Marco Pappa (Seattle, $7,100), Vincent Nogueira (Phialdelphia, $4,600), Diego Valeri (Portland, $6,800)
Forwards
C.J. Sapong, Philadelphia Union $5,000 – Sapong should be getting the start this week if Fernando Aristeguieta can’t go after he came off mid-week due to injury. Sapong is in a good spot as he managed to score in limited minutes last week and has a total of three goals on the season including one against this NYC FC team who are the worst in the league at this point in time. For his price, Sapong would be great to help you roster any of the high priced options available in this almost-full slate.
Kei Kamara, Columbus $11,100 – He’s the leading scorer in MLS, and after missing out on the start of the last match, he’ll be looking to come back in this one and help his Columbus squad get back to their winning ways. He’s one of the most talented forwards in major league soccer and with 49 shots this season so far has the highest conversion ratio for any of the high volume forwards. He will cost a lot and you have to count on a goal from him, but he might be worth the price.
Sebastian Giovinco, Toronto $10,700 – At a slight discount but the added risk of playing on the road, Giovinco makes my second favorite target at the high price tag. Giovinco makes for a great target but the price is formidable.
Other Forwards: Chris Rolfe (DC United, $8,600), Dom Dwyer (SKC, $8,700, if he is injured and does not get the start, go for rookie forward James Rogers for $3,500), Fernando Adi (Portland, $7,500), Octavio Rivero (Vancouver, $9,300)
Good Luck