Wells Fargo Championship Golf Betting Picks — 2021
We came close to nailing our second triple-digit winner in a row last week, but Keegan Bradley fell short on Sunday — surprise, surprise. This week the Tour heads to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship, as a star-studded field continues preparation for the 2021 PGA Championship, which is just a couple of weeks away. Follow along as I break down this week’s tournament, PGA odds and my best 2021 Wells Fargo Championship betting picks, plus other golf betting tips.
Wells Fargo Championship Golf Betting Picks
1u Jon Rahm 12-1 at FOX Bet
1u Bryson DeChambeau 16-1 at FOX Bet
1u Rory McIlroy 20-1 at BetMGM
1/2u Keegan Bradley 70-1 at PointsBet
1/2u Matt Jones 125-1 at PointsBet
As I alluded to above, this week’s field is no joke. The competition includes Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson Dechambeau, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, just time to name a few. In total, seven of the world’s top 10 players will tee off at Quail Hollow, plus four more from ranked inside the top 10. Picking the winner from that bunch would be hard enough, but we have to add more than 100 other golfers into the mix!
So, what type of golfer are we looking for while perusing Wells Fargo Championship golf odds? Quail Hollow has hosted the PGA Championship before, so the course is capable of putting forth a major-like test. A par 71 with three par 5s, the course stretches nearly 7,600 yards, with its toughest stretch, known as the ‘Green Mile,’ starting at hole no. 16 and ending at the clubhouse. Ultimately, we’re looking for golfers who have length and are gaining strokes off the tee. When it comes to iron play, they need to excel with their mid-to-long irons, as approach shots are often anywhere from 175-200 yards. For more information regarding course fit, be sure to check out RotoGrinders’ premium golf content, featuring expert PGA DFS and golf betting picks from Notorious and STLCards.
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Aside from Rory McIlroy’s 21-under winning score in 2015, which beat the field by seven strokes, no other golfer has scored better than 15-under through four rounds. Max Homa enters as the defending champion after shooting 15-under in 2019. I expect the tournament to play slightly more difficult this time around.
Wells Fargo Championship Betting Favorites
1u Jon Rahm 12-1 at FOX Bet
1u Bryson DeChambeau 16-1 at FOX Bet
1u Rory McIlroy 20-1 at BetMGM
If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know I don’t typically venture up to the top of golf odds sheets, more often shying away from the betting favorites and instead investing in longshots. That, however, won’t be the case this week. There are several favorites for the Wells Fargo Championship I have my eyes on, and deciding which ones to back is no easy task.
Let’s begin by looking no further than Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, who are the consensus favorites across the online sports betting industry. Rahm rank ranks 2nd in strokes gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds. Considering the Spaniard hasn’t won since August (BMW Championship) and doesn’t have a runner-up or third-place finish this year, some might argue that his game isn’t in great shape. But winning on Tour is tough, even when golfers are playing at their best. His play hasn’t been flashy, but he has been a model of consistency with seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 events. Suffice to say, Rahm’s game is in fine shape, he just hasn’t had a strong enough putting performance to push him across this finish line. A win is coming soon, though, there’s little doubt, and Quail Hollow could be the place. In his lone Wells Fargo Championship appearance (‘17) he finished 4th and then 58th three months later when he returned to the Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship. Rahm’s game, particularly his strength and accuracy off the tee, sets up well for the difficult test ahead.
Unlike Rahm, Thomas has had his fair share of swing problems in 2021. The most noteworthy of which came in Mexico when he lost six strokes off the tee at the WGC event. Thomas also found himself all over the place during the match play format in Austin. The good news is those struggles appear to be behind him, as he gained more than four strokes with his driver last week at the Valspar Championship. There, Thomas finished 13th despite losing 6.5 strokes with his putter. Only four other golfers had a worse week on the greens, none of whom finished better than 57th. Aside from that, Thomas played as well as anyone. He led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, as well as off-the-tee and approach. When it comes to course history, Thomas won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017 and has a T21st and 7th along with an MC in his three Wells Fargo Championship outings.
Bryson Meets Quail Hollow, Again
After those two, you can’t ignore Bryson DeChambeau and his 16-1 price tag*. DeChambeau unsurprisingly leads the field in strokes gained off-the-tee. So far, he’s missed the cut twice at the Wells Fargo Championship but has a T4 here from back in 2017. It’s worth noting that, since the Tour skipped Quail Hollow last year, DeChambeau has yet to tackle the course since bulking up. As a result, there may be some value here that oddsmakers are missing.
Golf Odds: McIlroy Falls to 20-1
And then there’s Rory McIlroy, whose odds have fallen to 20-1 after a pair of missed cuts at The Masters and The PLAYERS. McIlroy’s play is alarming, indeed. He’s gone a year and a half without a victory — in fact, he only has one top-five in the past 12 months. The Irishman did look okay before visiting TPC Sawgrass, though, finishing 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 6th at WGC-Mexico. He’s taken a few weeks off and I have a suspicion that he figured some things out. Now he returns to a venue that he loves. He’s been victorious not once but twice at Quail Hollow, with his last victory here coming in 2015. He finished 4th, 22nd, 16th and 8th in his subsequent visits.
Looking forward to being back at
— Rory McIlroy (@McIlroyRory) April 30, 2021WellsFargoGolf</a> next week in Charlotte! One of my favorite stops on <a href="https://twitter.com/PGATOUR?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">pgatour each year. #WellsFargoChampionship pic.twitter.com/bt3RK4pp0v
And if you’re looking for another narrative, well, it is Rory’s birthday week, turning 32 on May 4th
Looking back at archived golf odds, McIlroy has consistently been around 7-1 odds at Quail Hollow, and with the exception of this year’s Dell Match Play, I can’t recall the last time he was as long as 20-1 anywhere. Rory is blowing out candles on Tuesday, but I’m betting the real celebration comes Sunday afternoon.
Note: I’m not sure it’s wise to bet on all four favorites. You likely have to make a tough decision, picking two of the three between Rahm, DeChambeau and Thomas. Whatever decision you make, I won’t fault you, but my Wells Fargo Championship betting card will have Rahm, DeChambeau and McIlroy on it, plus two longshots and some First-Round Leader picks.
Wells Fargo Championship Longshot Picks
1/2u Keegan Bradley 70-1 at PointsBet
1/2u Matt Jones 125-1 at PointsBet
I sound like a broken record, I know, but I can’t not include Bradley in my golf betting picks following his second-place finish. Bradley’s off-the-tee game is good enough to win at Quail Hollow, while his ball-striking has been as pure as gets. Bradley tops the field in strokes gained tee-to-green this season and is second in strokes gained approach.
Meawhile, Matt Jones comes off a T26 at the Masters, which he preceded with a victory in Florida. Though Jones isn’t as strong off the tee as I’d like, he did gain six strokes approach en route to his win at the Honda Classic. The Australian golfer doesn’t have any notable finishes at Quail Hollow, but he has made the cut in three of his last four showings in Charlotte, so the challenging track isn’t his kryptonite.
First Round Leaders
0.10u Keegan Bradley 66-1 at Unibet
0.10u Matt Jones 80-1 at BetMGM
0.10u Harold Varner 80-1 at PointsBet
0.10u Will Gordon 150-1 at BetMGM
I should’ve learned my lesson long ago, but after Bradley came out of the gates last week like Medina Spirit at the Kentucky Derby, I promised myself I wouldn’t place an outright on Bradley again without matching it with a first-round leader (FRL) ticket. Predictably, a few other golfers caught my eyes while I looked for Bradley’s name among FRL golf odds.
Typically you want to wait until tee times are announced to pick guys with the more advantageous Round 1 draws, but there’s nothing too crazy in Kevin Roth’s PGA Weather Report. Morning tee times certainly won’t hurt, as winds will be 5-10 mph lighter than in the afternoon. Since it’s only a slight difference, I think it’s safe to fire some FRL picks now. In addition to Bradley and Jones, here are the other golfers I’m betting on to lead after Round 1.
Harold Varner 80-1 (PointsBet) – Varner comes off a runner-up finish at the RBC Heritage. Forcing him to club down, Harbour Town Golf Links wasn’t the best course fit for HV3. He had missed three consecutive cuts there, after all. Despite losing two strokes from the tee box, an area in which Varner usually excels, he was still able to end the week with the best PGA Tour finish of his career, thanks to excellent ball-striking and a hot putter. Varner gained 5.2 strokes with his approach shots and 5.6 putting. The latter isn’t sustainable, but who says his putter can’t stay hot for another 18 holes?
Will Gordon 150-1 (BetMGM) – Gordon doesn’t do many things well on the golf course (at least relatively speaking), but he does know how to drive the ball. He ranks 16th off-the-tee and enters the week making five of his last seven cuts. The long hitter has proven that he can go low for a round or two. Additionally, with a cheap price tag of $6,200 on DraftKings, Gordon is a viable punt candidate if you need salary relief while making your golf lineups. I’ll use him so I can squeeze a pair of favorites into my lineup builds.
2021 PGA Golf Betting Results: -1.4 Units
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