2021 WGC-FedEX St. Jude Invitational Golf Odds & Betting Picks

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This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the 2021 WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Here’s a closer look at this week’s golf odds across online sportsbooks.

After a brief respite during the Olympics, the PGA Tour is back this week with the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. With only a couple of events left, players will be clamoring for as many FedEx Cup points as possible ahead of the first playoff round at the Northern Trust. Let’s dig into the field and course prior to walking through a few outright bets for the week.

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Golf Odds

At the time of this writing — early morning of August 3rd — BetMGM posts the following outright odds. The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

Golfer Odds (8/3)
Brooks Koepka +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Dustin Johnson +1600
Jordan Spieth +1600
Justin Thomas +1800
Louis Oosthuizen +2000
Rory McIlroy +2000
Daniel Berger +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Scottie Scheffler +3000
Abraham Ancer +3300
Harris English +3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Paul Casey +3500

The field is stacked — as per usual for a WGC event. The event features two previous winners… technically… with Justin Thomas winning last year and Brooks Koepka hoisting the trophy in 2019. Why technically? The St. Jude Classic was a tour stop at TPC Southwind since 1989. In 2019, the event replaced the WGC-Bridgestone and became a WGC event. So, when looking through old statistics, relevant information about the course will be tied to the St. Jude Classic and the Invitational over the last two years. PGAtour.com lists past champions 2018 and prior as those winning the WGC Bridgestone at Firestone CC. While researching for the event, be certain that any information about the tournament this week focuses on golf played at TPC Southwind.

To qualify, golfers must be in the top 50 of the OWGR or make it via some other condition. In total, 66 golfers will tee it up without a cut. Brooks Koepka is the current favorite while Collin Morikawa and freshly-minted Olympic Champion, Xander Schauffele, lurk close behind. Several golfers that competed in Tokyo, Japan are listed in the field. How we account for the travel and jetlag is certainly a tricky proposition. Does anyone have a SG: Post-Olympics stat generated yet? Let’s take a peek at TPC Southwind.

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Preview

Memphis, Tennessee is the home of TPC Southwind. A par-70 course, TPC Southwind is lined with Bermuda grass, plenty of bunkers, and water hazards that will test the metal of the field. Hosting the WGC event for the third time, TPC Southwind has hosted the St. Jude Classic since 1989. With stacked WGC fields, Justin Thomas won in 2020 at -13 while Brooks Koepka won in 2019 with a score of -16.

SG: Approach will always be a starting point and one will struggle to find any number of rounds where Collin Morikawa doesn’t lead the field in any related statistical category. I will sprinkle in some SG: OTT and putting, as well, but will parse the field using Par 5 Scoring, Par 4 450-500 (there are six of them), and proximity from 150-175. Greens-in-regulation will be important as well as bogey avoidance. With less opportunities for easy birdies, par will be a very good score on some of the more difficult Par 4s.

Why Par 5 scoring? While there are only two, the Par 5s are the 17th and 18th toughest holes on the course. Players must take advantage of the eight opportunities to play these two holes over four days.

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Picks

Daniel Berger +2200 (BetMGM)

Normally, we lead off with a very short golfer odds-wise to start our betting picks. While I am interested in Justin Thomas, his form leaves a lot to be desired. Like others, Thomas is traveling from Tokyo after the Olympics. Certainly, gauging the importance of a week-long break en lieu of a week in Tokyo could be pivotal for strategy this week. I will likely take a conservative approach and focus on building a betting card without many Olympians.

With that said, Daniel Berger feels like a really good place to start a betting card for this event. Over his last 36 rounds, Berger is 5th in SG: Approach as well as 10th in GIR gained. Berger owns back-to-back victories at TPC Southwind when the event back in the Classic days in 2016-2017. Certainly familiar with the course, Berger brings an exceptionally well-rounded game to this week’s tournament. If we filter the field for performance at no-cut events, Berger ranks 8th in total strokes gained over his last nine tournaments.

With a 22/1 price tag, I feel comfortable starting my betting card with a unit on Daniel Berger. At this price, he makes for an interesting DFS proposition if trying to create a more balanced build. Let’s start with Berger and hope his week off has him in the correct mindset to play well over four rounds.

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Corey Conners +5500 (DraftKings)

Why can’t I quit you, Corey? Just when Corey Conners was outside of our price range for seemingly… well, ever, a strong field comes along and a good price tempts me. With Corey, we lead off a run of players with awesome prices on DraftKings Sportsbook. At 55/1, can Conners line up his putting with his stellar approach game?

Conners is returning from the Olympics. I am a bit worried about the impact this event will have on players. That said, the big boost on DraftKings relative to other books mitigates my concern. Conners sits at 7th in SG: Approach and SG: OTT in his last 36 rounds. He adds a ranking of third in GIRs. As is always the case, if Conners puts together an excellent round or two of putting, a top finish is certainly in play. A victory? I am not sure. Yet, at 55/1, I am willing to wager a half-unit despite a hectic travel schedule.

Jason Kokrak +6000 (DraftKings)

Coming off of a very solid start at The Open Championship, Jason Kokrak returns to action at an extremely variant set of a prices across the sports betting industry. The DraftKings number is supreme at the time of this writing with other books featuring Kokrak as short as +4200. Partially a price play, Kokrak brings the form to back up his sticker price.

Kokrak boasts an impressive set of skills off-the-tee to complement a really strong putter. With two victories this season, Kokrak’s ability to convert opportunities created with his length has amounted to five T10s including his victories. Kokrak leads the field in SG: Par 5 in his past 36 rounds and will need to take advantage of his eight opportunities at the longer holes to best players with a bit more to offer on approach. With that said, Kokrak surely makes a fine half-unit play this week.

Max Homa +15000 (DraftKings)

Well, howdy! Max Homa, a man with a victory on tour this season, and multiple T10s is 150/1 (for now) on DraftKings Sportsbook. Homa is quite the mixed bag this year. With his five T10s come six missed cuts. The Homa-Coaster is a difficult ride but two things… There is no cut this week. So, forget worrying about his number on Friday. Secondly, this price tag is so robust that a quarter-unit is well worth the upside.

Homa sits in the top 25 players in the field in several of the aforementioned categories, but, of course there are only 66 golfers. With that said, Homa represents a very, very cheap boom-or-bust option in both betting and DFS. He is a no-brainer addition this week at a very cheap cost.

Good luck with the last WGC event of the PGA Tour season. Next week, we take on the final even before the FedEx Cup playoffs — the Wyndham Championship.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro