I Hope I Don't Suck: WGC Fedex St. Jude Invitational Picks
Stephen Keech knows his basketball, baseball, and football, but now he’s ready to take a swing at golf. This week, follow Keech as he uses RotoGrinders Premium PGA tools to make picks for the WGC Fedex St. Jude Invitational, in the DFS lobby and at the sportsbook. If you haven’t yet signed up at BetMGM, take advantage of our golf betting special offer below!
To say that Week 1 of my PGA adventure was a mixed bag would be an understatement. Justin Thomas forgot how to play golf and my only bets that felt like a real sweat were on a 100-1 longshot who did manage to finish in the top five (kind of) but couldn’t quite pull ahead at any point. My sole entry in the $33 Single Entry contest didn’t get home either. I’m not going to make any excuses, no one should have expected greatness from me this early, but I have been dealing with a stye (sty? the eye thing) for more than a week now and it’s possible that’s why I couldn’t clearly see who the good golfers were going to be. Strictly from an entertainment standpoint, a four-day sweat with golf happening at night was amazing and it only made me even more jealous of the PGA OGs. I’m hopping right back in the single-entry waters this week and will be throwing a team into the $75K PGA Dogleg on DraftKings ($33). I also have a few longshot bets I’ve picked out based on the Premium PGA tools/content we offer here at RotoGrinders. Let’s recap last week before we get into the St. Judge Invitational picks…
Recap
I think I’ve made it pretty clear how I’m new to PGA betting, and I definitely learned a few things the hard way during the Olympics. First of all, I did not know what a “Dead Heat Payout” was and I was especially annoyed to see that it meant I’d be making significantly less money than I thought I would. One of my wagers last week was on Mito Pereira to finish in the top five at +1600. If you followed the tournament this past weekend, you’ll know that Mito was in the top five for a large portion of it, and my 100-1 bet on him to win the whole thing looked live for quite a while. That one obviously didn’t get home, but Mito did tie for 4th place with six other golfers. I did not read the fine print on DraftKings and thought I’d get paid out in full for that. That did not happen. My $10 wager on him that I hoped would return $160 led to a total payout of 56.64. Yikes. Despite Mito’s success I actually did lose -.28 units on the day, let’s hope better days are ahead.
Given last week’s events, it seems like the dead heat payouts are something I should educate myself on. Despite the fact that I did not see this coming, it’s a pretty straightforward concept. If you bet a golfer to finish in the top five, ten, etc., and he ties with a bunch of other people, your winnings are dwindled down depending on exactly how many golfers he tied with. For those that bet first-round leaders, this applies here too – if you bet a guy to lead after the first round and he’s tied for the lead with three other golfers, what would have been a 10-1 return turns into a 2.5-1 return.
One thing I noticed on BetMGM while scouring odds last week was that they note “All ties paid out in full” under the top 5/10/20 bets. I did not think much of it and assumed that would be the case with the other legal books in Tennessee. It is not. BetMGM appears to be the only legal book in the state of Tennessee (and the entire US) that offers full payouts on ties, which will add an interesting element for me when comparing odds between them and DraftKings/FanDuel on those types of bets. Especially with top-five and ten bets, I’ll take a number that isn’t as favorable on the surface to ensure I’m paid out in full rather than having my returns cut based on ties. It’ll be situational of course, but it does shed some light on why MGM’s odds seemed to be less favorable across the board on golf compared to DraftKings. Those will likely be the two places I flock to going forward, with DraftKings likely being my preferred spot for tournament winners given that those odds seem to generally be better than other legal books.
Let’s quickly recap last week’s DFS lineup. I finished in 675th. Nice round number, but not one that won me any money. I did (barely) finish in the top half of the field so that’s something to hang my hat on. Before someone comes at me and says that means absolutely nothing in GPPs, I already know that smart guy. But I need something to build some confidence. Justin Thomas stunk. I talked myself into Si Woo Kim suddenly becoming prime Tiger Woods because he had military service on the line, and wow was that wrong. Paul Casey and Mito were both solid but despite having two players who finished technically in the top three, I did not finish in the money. As I noted earlier, I was also down .2836 units – which is just a fancy way to say I lost $28.36 – on DraftKings sportsbook. Let’s get into this week’s team construction and betting picks…
One thing that was mentioned last week was that course history is important. I’m not sure if it’s that or STL’s very strong argument for him in LineupHQ, but I’m starting with Daniel Berger and I’m just praying he’s not immensely popular. He’s apparently been playing well and has won here multiple times in the past and also has a T-2 finish, so I’ll bite. Tyrell Hatton and Max Homa are also building blocks for me on the cheaper side, and it doesn’t hurt that our experts are fans of them. Also, those that tuned in last week might remember that one of Notorious’ golden rules was to always play Brian Harman. He wasn’t in the field last week, so this is my first chance. At this point, I’m rounding it out with Webb Simpson and Brooks because I hate Bryson, but maybe I’ll change things up.
St. Jude Invitational Betting Picks
Betting Season Total: -$28.36, Single Entry DFS: -$33
Daniel Berger to win outright +2200 (BetMGM) – .1 units ($10 to win $220)
Daniel Berger to finish in the top five +400 (BetMGM) – .3 units ($30 to win $120, MGM has the best line available and also pays out ties)
Max Homa to finish in the top 10 +900 (DK) – .1 units ($10 to win $90)
I’m sticking with the Daniel Berger course history narrative. He’s my biggest horse in the field but for some reason, I keep mixing him up with Brian Harman. If I was Daniel Berger I’d be really upset about that because Brian Harman’s hair is awful. Let’s hope I get back in the green this week.
Image Credit: Imagn