WNBA DFS Breakdown: Friday, July 28th
We have a massive six game slate with prize pools offering 25k to first place! This is an awesome slate and I hope you guys are ready to take it down. As always give me a follow-on twitter @travismangone for WNBA starting lineups/injury updates and if you have any questions regarding the slate I will be happy to answer them for you.
Connecticut @ Washington
This is going to be one of the better games to watch on the slate with two teams tied for first in the division at 13-9. This is a game that I expect the stars on each team to come out and try and shine. Connecticut closed out the all-star break with some tough games and poor performances which dropped their price tags. I am going to take advantage of this like I did last time out and play Jasmine Thomas, Alyssa Thomas, and Jonquel Jones. Last slate I really liked playing two of the three on each team but I don’t think that is necessary on this slate. I think Jasmine Thomas is someone I will get exposure to on both sites at guard but won’t go crazy with my exposure as I think she is a good play. If I had to pick a forward on the Sun it would be Alyssa Thomas for me because she is $600 cheaper on FanDuel and $1,500 cheaper on DraftKings than Jonquel Jones. If I had to pick one forward she would be the one I go to instead of Jones. If you want to play Jones I don’t hate the play but I prefer both Thomas girls instead.
Washington Mystics have some injuries that we can look to gain some value on this slate. Natasha Cloud and Taylor Hill are out giving more opportunities for Tolliver and Ivory Latta as interesting value plays to look at. The one thing I see promising about Tolliver is that she was forced to more ball handling duties and had a season high 10 assist along with shooting a poor 3-for-14 from the field. I would expect her to shoot better here and I have a lot of interest in her on this slate. Connecticut also allows 23% of opponents’ points from three-point range which is ranked third highest in the league. Tolliver is a value that I will have interest on this slate for sure. With those injuries though Elena Delle Donne will be asked to carry the load in this matchup. With this being an important game for both teams I expect Delle Donne to come out and bring a big game in a battle for first place in the division. Last time these two played it was a great 88-80 game with lots of production and Delle Donne gave us a good outing. That was without the injuries so I expect a lot from her in this spot.
Phoenix @ Chicago
Phoenix draws a matchup against Chicago who is playing good basketball right now but are still the second fastest paced team in the league and struggle defensively. Griner is still down with injury and I am assuming she is still out and am doing this write up with the assumption of her being out. With Griner out, Taurasi has a massive usage of over 35% in her past two games and I am not going to pass up on that. I understand Taurasi’s ownership might be inflated and she is scoring dependent but in a matchup against Chicago who has the second fastest pace in the league and allows the most fantasy points per minute to guards, I want exposure to her. On FanDuel for only $5,800 seems like an easy play to me but on DraftKings with the ownership it is more of a conversation. $9,800 on DrafKings is a tough price tag especially in tournaments with the inflated ownership so I could understand going underweight on her but for me I won’t pass up on that usage and massive shot attempts with Griner out. The four other options that are viable against Chicago are Danielle Robinson, Monique Currie, Camille Little, and Angel Robinson. Chicago is a poor rebounding team so I am hoping Little and Robinson who have had little success so far without Griner can turn things around in this matchup. Danielle Robinson had a big game with 4 steals and almost a season high in both points and assists. For only $3,500 FD/ $6,200 DK I struggle with what to do here because I expect recency bias to set in and her ownership gets inflated. On the other hand, in this matchup the Sun will need Robinson’s defense to cover their talented guards in Vandersloot, Quigley and Pondexter. I think she is an option to get exposure to so keep in mind ownership could be inflated, but it is a six-game slate so maybe I am over exaggerating.
Chicago has been playing some good basketball recently and I was worried about Pondexter losing time because of how well they have been playing and she sadly only played 16 minutes last game. Now apparently Cappie Pondexter saw me asking a WNBA writer what was going on with her minutes and even though I didn’t tag her she saw the tweet and said to me, “Where will that happen? Hard workers never get squeezed.” She apparently deleted the tweet since then but I do worry about Cappie now going forward. And why should I roster someone beefing at me on twitter so fade Cappie!! (jokes aside I will wait until Cappie’s minutes return to normal). Other than that, Quigley and Vandersloot are certainly in play but the question is do we want to pay this price tag? This situation is too much of a mess or unknown for me because if Cappie gets minutes that could hurt the other guard’s production. I want to get behind these Chicago guards but on a six-game slate it just feels unnecessary. If I am looking for exposure to this game with no Griner I will look to the Forwards and load up on Breland and Dolson. Both these girls are not options that I would want to play together but the amount of upside they have for the price tag I like sprinkling them in to get exposure to the Chicago side of the ball rather than mess around with the guards.
New York @ Indiana
New York draws a great matchup against one of the worst teams in the league at defending Forwards. Tina Charles would fit this matchup well but I do have some concerns. Sure, if I have the money to pay for Charles I want to in this matchup but I do worry about the blow out and a matchup against the slowest paced team in the league. I have faded Charles in the past and it has not done me well so I think I will get exposure to her but at the same price I like Breanna Stewart more. The New York guard situation is tough between Zellous, Prince and Rodgers – the best way to get exposure to them is to play both DraftKings and FanDuel and buy them at the cheap price tags and sprinkle them in throughout your lineup. These guards are not core plays for me but they have immense upside and I like getting exposure to them on most slates. The pace is slightly concerning but points will be scored here so we can’t overlook that.
Indiana Fever without Shenise Johnson have been struggling but there are still some plays in this game that can be interesting. If you want a safe option who is just cheap Candice Dupree is your option but I don’t think she has the upside to really win you the big tournament. With her price tag coming down she’s becoming more in play but in a tough matchup I think I will pass and look to the value guards. I hate giving you an answer like the last one but between Wheeler, January, and Mitchell it is one of those things where I sprinkle them in if I want exposure to them and buy low on their tags on each site. I don’t love the Fever in this matchup so I don’t think these guards are plays I will go out of my way to play on a six-game slate but if they fit for value I don’t hate it. My overall assessment on this slate is that I don’t think the Fever will be on the first-place team and I am playing for first so they don’t seem necessary on this slate.
Los Angeles @ San Antonio
Los Angeles is a simple situation for me – the guards are an easy fade on a slate where we have a ton of guards I have more interest in there is no need to overpay for some of these options. I like Chelsea Gray but in a slower paced game and at her price compared to other options I just can’t get behind it on a six-game slate. Ogwumike and Parker are two great forward options but when you compare them to the other Forwards on this slate and with it being six games we need to take stands and the stand I will take is passing on these options. I just think at those price tags I would prefer many more forward options and they just miss the cut. I understand the matchup being great but in a 155 total which we could have a blowout I just don’t think it is necessary for me to play these forwards.
San Antonio Stars are a mess at guard between McBride, Jefferson, and Plum. I want to like these girls but the coach makes it difficult messing with minutes and just not giving us any consistency. If you want exposure to this game I would do it through Plum and Jefferson because their tags are cheap and they have some upside but McBride is just too expensive and there are better options at that price. I don’t have a lot of love for these guards but just wanted to note those two as cheap options to consider and hey if the coach gives them run they could do well. If I had to pick only one to play I will side with Plum because of her usage the past five games but this situation is frustrating. Now I hate the guards but I really think Isabelle Harrison is a forward we should have interest in on this slate. Her last outing against the Sparks she provided 42.6 FanDuel points. Harrison just has an upside at her price that not many have and she is someone that I think you want to have exposure to. I also like her in this matchup because it is more of a slow-paced half-court offense style of game and the will need Harrison’s length to cover Ogwumike and Parker down low. This may not be the easiest matchup but the game style fits Harrison well and I want exposure to her in my tournaments.
Minnesota @ Atlanta
The Lynx are the best team in the league and draw a matchup against Atlanta in a 167 total. Atlanta leads the league in pace and has been playing better basketball so this is a spot I want to get exposure to one of the best duo forwards in the league in Maya Moore and Synthia Fowles. I love the price tags on Moore and Fowles specifically on FanDuel but they are also good plays on DraftKings as well. Atlanta is also the third worst team in the league at rebounding % and gets blocked the second most in the league. Fowles is a premier shot blocker and this is a good spot at this price tag she has some nice upside. If you want more exposure to this game you can get it through Augustus and Brunson but I don’t love their upside. If they fit the last spot and you want a safe option you can go with that but for me I am shooting for first in these big tournaments and I am looking for upside in these spots.
Atlanta has been playing well with Clarendon, Sykes, and Hayes being very productive at the guard position but they draw a tough matchup against the 17-2 Lynx who have the best defensive rating in the league. For me I think Sykes is my favorite play and feels like the safest one for production, but Clarendon has the highest upside of anyone. Hayes is listed as a guard but she is technically a small forward and could draw matchups down low against Moore and Fowles which makes me want to pass on her but I don’t hate using her to get exposure to this game I would just pick Sykes if I had to pick one. Elizabeth Williams is a hard pass for me as she is priced up and in a tough matchup it just seems like an easy fade to me. I don’t like attacking the Lynx but I want some exposure to Atlanta and I think Sancho Lyttle is a decent option to do so. Lyttle is only $4,200 FD/$6,400 DK and is a value that I would consider despite the tough matchup if you want some exposure to these 166 totals so I think Lyttle is a good option. I do hate this matchup but one thing to note is the minutes that Atlanta starters have. The Dream realistically only have a 7-8-woman rotation so these starters are in play mainly because of their minutes and production. I can’t tell you exactly where I am going to land on Atlanta because I normally fade teams against Minnesota but with this total and the minutes Atlanta has I am scared to limit my exposure too much mainly due to the matchup.
Dallas @ Seattle
Dallas has some great guard play that I love to use but are staring to be priced up a bit for my liking. If I have the money for Skylar Diggins-Smith I want her but I will likely be going a different route than paying up for her on this slate. I think on DraftKings is the best place to pay that tag on her if you had to pick but $7,800 on FanDuel is just a bit too pricey. If I want exposure to the Dallas guards I think Alisha Gray is a nice safe option at $5,400 FD/$7,500 DK. If you need a cheaper option Karima Christmas-Kelly is an option to go to if you feel like you need cheap exposure to Dallas that has upside. With Aerial Powers back in the mix at forward and such great guard play from Dallas the forwards are really lacking in my opinion and on this slate, seem like an easy stay away. There is no consistency in their minutes and it is really frustrating to try and roster them. The problem is this game has the highest total at 170 so I want exposure to this game but not many options are jumping out as great plays on the Dallas side of the ball. One thing you can do on this slate is make a team with Skylar Diggins-Smith and Breanna Stewart. Playing Diggins instantly makes you different and you get the two best players on each team in the highest total game. This games’ total is not so high that I think you need to jam players in from it but it is worth noting.
Seattle gets a nice bump in pace here against a Dallas team that struggles against opposing forwards and centers allowing the most fantasy points per minute to both. This is gold for Breanna Stewart who is another great forward play on this slate for me. At her price, I want to make sure to get exposure to her especially with her recent play. She also had a 49.5 FanDuel point performance against Dallas this year and of the top tier forwards she is my top Forward on this slate. If you can’t afford Stewart and still want cheap exposure to this awesome matchup head over to Crystal Langhorne who has been great recently and still has a decent price tag. I think Jewell Loyd is another option you can get exposure to if you want but I prefer her price of $8,500 on DraftKings compared to $6,100 on FanDuel. I think she is in play on both sites but just prefer her on DK.