WNBA DFS Breakdown: Saturday, July 8th
Welcome back to my WNBA breakdown. I hope you have all been enjoying WNBA, and now that we have DraftKings contests I hope you jump on in and give it a shot. There was massive overlay yesterday on DK and I am hoping we can get that again. If you have any questions on WNBA, give me a follow on twitter @travismangone and I will be happy to answer them for you.
If you are new to WNBA, here are some important things to note: news is hard to find, we don’t get lineups until right before tip, and it is important to stay near your computer near lock.
One thing to note before we get started is that FanDuel and DraftKings both have Stefanie Dolson listed as OUT for an illness, though I have not seen that information anywhere. I know she was sick in the past, but I don’t understand why she is listed as out, seeing as she was sick the game before and then played 29 minutes in her last game. If Dolson is out, Breeland and Boyette will get the most run at forward for Chicago. Breeland is the play with the most upside despite it being a tough matchup. I would expect her to draw the easier matchup in Maya Moore, in an attempt to spread the floor and pull her away from the basket and shooting jumpers. With Pondexter now out I would expect Vandersloot and Allie Quigley to be my favorite targets to replace her. I also expect Tamera Young to get good usage too I will likely mix and match these Chicago guards in my lineups and get exposure to these three on all my teams.
Top Plays
Cappie Pondexter/Courtney Vandersloot
Editor’s Note: Pondexter has been ruled out for today’s game.
I am writing up both girls for a reason, and it is because I am going to buy low on them on each site. I feel that they each offer more value on one of the two sites.
Let’s start with Cappie Pondexter, who cost $8,600 and is the second-highest priced guard on DK. However, on FD Pondexter is $4,800 and the ninth-most expensive guard on the slate. She is the main distributor and has a team high usage of 23.1% on the season but has been awful the last couple of games, shooting poorly from the field, turning the ball over and not cracking 20 FanDuel points in any of her last three games. Now on DraftKings, the reason for wanting Vandersloot is simple; she is only $5,400, the 14th-priced guard on the slate and about $1,000 too cheap.
On the other hand, Vandersloot has put up 18.3 21.4 and 25.3 FanDuel points in her last three games despite having a usage in the teens for those games. Vandersloot is also only $4,600 on FanDuel and I am assuming everyone will gravitate to her over Pondexter due to recent bias, making Pondexter a great tournament play on this slate.
This is as simple as buying the player on the right site. I do think you can get away with going Vandersloot on FanDuel as well, but I would prefer Pondexter for the upside. This matchup will be a difficult one regardless for both players against a tough Minnesota team where they are +15 on the WNBA odds board, but again on a slate with not a ton of value, I think this is the best way to get value and not miss out on each play.
Emma Meesseman
Meesseman is an underpriced player and too talented to be priced at $4,800. I understand that she went to Belgium and that while she was gone the team went 8-3. The coach has said that they would ease her back into the rotation. In her two games back, she has played 19 minutes for 18.8 FanDuel points and then 22 minutes for 20.7 FanDuel points. At this price, if she gets that type of production, I am satisfied, but I believe that the minutes should increase in this matchup. We are buying low on a talented player that was talked about being a special player, one that would cause nightmare matchups for opponents with the addition of Delle Donne. Not only that, but Meesseman averaged 27.87 FanDuel points last year and is clearly too good to be this cheap. On top of that, she has positive regression coming, as she is shooting a career low 42.0% from the field.
The matchup against Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas on the inside would not be the most ideal, but this price tag is just too cheap on her. Since she has returned from Belgium, I have been buying low, and it has worked out. I will continue to do so until her production and price tag increases.
Alyssa Thomas
Since Morgan Tuck went down, Alyssa Thomas has been a beast, averaging 33.79 FanDuel points per game. Thomas and Jasmine both have a usage of 23% and 22.9% on the season, and both are carrying a ton of the load for the team. She has a nice floor and upside in this matchup against the Mystics in what I expect to be the most competitive game on the slate, with a 3.5 spread favoring Connecticut. She is also one of those players that, if you look at her game log, contributes in all categories; points, rebounds, assists and steals.
Thomas does it all, and in a big division game with the Sun only .5 games back of the Mystics, Thomas should bring her A game.
Fade of the Night
Breanna Stewart is going to be my fade of the night. I will say that I could see myself having a small exposure to her if I am playing multiple lineups, but I do worry about her in this spot against LA. The Sparks are a good defensive team and have good forwards like Parker and Ogwumike who can give her some trouble. If I had to say one player that I would get the least exposure to over $7,500 on FanDuel and over $10,000 on DraftKings, it would be Stewart.
Game log watchers will also look at Stewart’s last three games of 41, 54 and 47.5 DraftKings points and just assume she is a fantastic play, but the matchup is not the easiest and there are other options at that price I would prefer to play.