WNBA DFS Breakdown: Tuesday, July 25th

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We’ve got five games on the WNBA schedule tonight. Below is a breakdown of the DFS slate and how I’ll be attacking it.

Chicago @ Connecticut (-7) – 172.5

Chicago is finally back to full strength, and although Pondexter was limited going into the All Star break I would expect her to go back to her full role off of rest. Pondexter only played 11 minutes in her last game, which is frustrating, but that was only her first game back, and with the All-Star Break it makes some sense. In her 11 minutes, she saw a 31% usage, and I expect her to go back to her role as the main ball handler with increased minutes. We used to pay a lot for Pondexter and now with her at $4,600 FD/$4,900 DK(extreme value on DK) this just seems like too good of a price tag to pass on. If Pondexter gets those minutes she is the top value play on this slate. I am not the coach, so I can’t predict what she will do, but after one game back and the All-Star Break it seems like a no-brainer to get your high usage player back involved. I do worry that coach sticks more with Vandersloot and that could hurt Pondexter, but I hope that’s not the case. I will likely hedge with some Vandersloot even at that price tag just to make sure I am not totally burned. Either way, Pondexter is a top value play on Chicago if she gets the minutes, and I will likely pass on the other guards because they are priced up and their production should be cut into. This game does have the highest implied total though, so I would want to make sure you get exposure to this game. I don’t mind taking a shot on Breland or Dolson at forward if you want because of their ceilings, but they are not core plays for me.

Chicago is a team that struggles defensively and is ranked third in the league in pace. Those two things add up for good fantasy production, and I think that the Sun can really provide that on this slate. This game has the highest Vegas total on the slate, so I want to get exposure to it. The Sun are easy in that they have three players that really provide a ton of production and that is Alyssa Thomas, Jasmine Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They just disappointed and I love their price tags around the industry. Chicago is a scrappy team that can keep things close, and with only a 7-point spread I think Chicago can keep it competitive enough where we want exposure to these three girls that I listed. My plan is to get exposure to all of them, and you can also sprinkle in plays like Courtney Williams and Shekinna Stricklen. This game also looks to me to be one of the better game stacks on the slate.

Phoenix @ Atlanta (-4) – 164

Phoenix is without their best player in Brittney Griner. In the first game without Griner and Taurasi back, here are Taurasi’s numbers. Taurasi had a 37.2% usage, shot 9-for-20 (34 points) with only 2 assists and 3 rebounds. Taurasi simply does it all for the Mercury with no Griner, we need to make sure to load up on her on this slate. That usage is insane, and if she gets that again with those shot attempts you will want her on your team. Other plays that I would be looking for to help Taurasi out are Camille Little who is probably my second favorite option in this game. Other plays you can take some chances on that I am not in love with but could produce are Monique Currie, Angel Robinson, and Danielle Robinson, but for me my focus is on Diana Taurasi, Dianna Taurasi, and oh yeah, Diana Taurasi.

Vegas expects this game to be close and Atlanta are only 4-point favorites. I kind of think that line might be off and Atlanta runs away with this, but either way we will want to look at some Atlanta players here. Without Griner I would expect Elizabeth Williams to dominate the glass but the one concern I have is paying $7,300/$9,900 for her. That is the highest price tag I have seen on her, and maybe I am overreacting, but she is certainly a safe option and should do well without Griner to make things difficult. Williams is a target in this game for me along with Sykes, Clarendon, and Tiffany Hayes who I don’t mind mixing in your lineup. If you don’t want to pay for Williams I think Sancho Lyttle is an option to consider as well. Atlanta has a bunch of all around solid players and at any time they can pop, so I like to mix my exposure to them, but with no Griner Williams seems to be in a great spot. I just worry about the price tag relative to her upside, but I will be getting exposure.

Indiana @ Dallas (-6.5) – 166

The Fever get a huge pace boost against Dallas, which makes them a nice fantasy option on this slate. If you did not know, Shenise Johnson is still out for the season and there is still valued to be had at the guard position. Between January, Mitchell, and Wheeler no one has taken the role of Shenise Johnson and secured it as the main option on this team. You would think after three games someone would have stepped up, but they still have not. In an up and down game, I like the idea of going to a cheap option like Tiffany Mitchell who is a scorer, and if she gets going in a fast paced game she could be set up for a great game. I do think there is risk to her because like a Jamal Crawford if she’s not scoring it could be ugly, but with Johnson out she has had at worst 16.75 fantasy points, and for her cheap tag she makes sense as a good guard option. If you think Mitchell is too risky for you, January feels like the safer option who I like more than Mitchell personally. She is a veteran and understands she needs to kind of step up here, which she has providing some good games and filling the stat sheet as well. Wheeler is the last option who I don’t mind, but I would rather pay down for these other two instead. I would not argue going Wheeler because maybe everyone goes to January who has been the more popular play since Johnson has been out, and if Wheeler has a big game that could be a nice leverage play. To give you my final rankings it is January, Mitchell, and then Wheeler. I am not a big fan of Dupree, but she is someone that I could be sprinkling in, but I don’t love her upside. She just gets between 18-30 fantasy points consistently, but with the price tag going down and in a pace up game she is someone I will get exposure to but not someone I am going to jam into my lineups.

The Dallas Wings get a matchup against the slowest paced team in the league, but I assume they will dictate the pace and it should not hurt them too much. The pace will be a little slower though, which has me less enthused about this team, but there are still options I like too. Glory Johnson is only in play because the Fever are bad against bigs, and she should be able to have her way down low, but she can be risky. She is an option I will have a little exposure to mainly due to matchup and upside, but I prefer other forwards on this slate. Skylar Diggins-Smith and Alisha Gray are two guards I always love to roster, but I don’t think Skylar will fit my construction today. It is also a slower paced game for her and she is priced up, so I prefer to pay up for forwards or guards that are cheaper. If you have the money and she fits your last spot go for it. I want to like Alisha Gray, but the problem is she is in the mid-tier with other guards I prefer. I still think in this matchup she could be a good play.

New York @ Minnesota (-12) -160

So, I know I didn’t like Tina Charles in the last matchup, and I am going to go back to the well saying I don’t like her here. The reason why is simple. This is the highest spread of the day and the toughest defensive team in the league. Charles has a matchup against Fowles who was your 2016 defensive player of the year. She also has had a tremendous season and I expect her to make things difficult on Charles. This is the toughest matchup in the league, and if she ends up having a monster game so be it, but on a five-game slate I don’t think you will need to pay for Charles to win this slate. Instead I would prefer mixing in plays like Zellous, Rodgers and Prince, but I am not even that high on them because Minnesota is an all-around tough team. For me I will likely stay away from the Liberty, and if I play any of them it would be sprinkling one of the guards that fits my last spot.

Minnesota Lynx provide some good options for us on this slate. The price tag and upside that Moore and Fowles can have her have me wanting to get some exposure to them. These are two options that can always have massive games, and at their price tags I feel like getting exposure to them is smart on this slate. If you don’t want to pay up but still want exposure to the Lynx, you can do it through Augustus and Brunson, who I prefer more on FanDuel than DraftKings; still, they can both be options to consider on this slate.

Seattle @ LA (-11) – 162.5

Seattle just hosted the All-Star game, and I am wondering if I am overthinking this, but with all the festivities and Breanna Stewart being heavily involved could she be tired from the long weekend? I could be overthinking, but she is also expensive relative to other forwards I like and draws one of the toughest matchups in the league against LA. Seattle are 11-point underdogs in one of the lower totals on the slate at 161.5. I think I will stay away from Stewart and play some other forwards instead, but she is a talented player; she just won’t make the cut for me today. This is sort of like a day when we have a ton of starting pitching we love like Kershaw, Kluber and Max Scherzer. So many forwards to love I can’t play them all though. I do think that if we want to exposure to this game the way to do it is with Jewell Loyd. Loyd has had success in this matchup before and I think if Stewart struggles she could have to carry the load for this team. We can also take a walk down Narrative Street where Jewell Loyd will be playing in LA, which is her mentor Kobe Bryant’s hometown. I would expect her coach to be in the stands watching her tonight and that Jewell Loyd will want to impress.

For me the Sparks are boring and simple – I won’t play the guards because there are too many others that I like and if I want to or have the money to pay up for Ogumike or Candace Parker I will. If I could only play one it would be Ogumike who I would expect to be able to bully Stewart down low and have a good game. Parker and Ogumike are options I will try to get some exposure to and I like them in this matchup, but again with so many forwards to like I don’t know how much exposure to them I will fall. From the sound of things it sounds like I might live in the mid-tier today on this slate with so many good options, but if I have value and can pay up for any of these two Sparks bigs you better believe I want to play them.

As always, give me a follow on Twitter at travismangone, as I will tweet out any news regarding the WNBA and answer all your questions.

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