WNBA DFS Breakdown: Wednesday, July 12th

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We have some massive prize pools today, but before we start talking WNBA, I wanted to give a few insights to newer players.

First off, if I see any news, I will tweet it out, so if you have any questions give me a follow on Twitter at travismangone and I am more than happy to get to them (but keep in mind that the closer it is to lock time, the more I will be busy working on my own lineups). I will also update this article if any news breaks.

Secondly, we need to remember that in WNBA DFS, news is hard to find, and we often don’t get lineups until right before tip. It is important to stay near your computer near lock, because things can change minute by minute. Sometimes, players originally ruled out can be ruled back in. For example, Moriah Jefferson could pass concussion protocol and be in right before tip without anyone’s knowledge.

Lastly, if you would rather listen to WNBA content, I have a podcast posted up Tuesday afternoon talking about the slate here.

Alright, let’s get started.

San Antonio @ Indiana (-9.5) – 156 Total

San Antonio Stars

The Stars are the worst team in the league, but they still have some fantasy assets that should be very valuable to us on this slate. With Moriah Jefferson in concussion protocol and Monique Currie traded recently, we have a lot of usage to go around with value at guard to take advantage of. Kelsey Plum is going to be one of my top targets in this game and for good reason. She’s only $3,400 FD/$4,100 DK and has played 22, 23, and 26 minutes in her last three, putting up an average of 14.8 FanDuel points per game since the Monique Currie trade. This is a great spot to take Plum as a value play to fill in some of the stud options on this slate. The one worry here is minutes, but she is starting to get them despite the fact the Stars have been cautious with her. Plum plays the least number of minutes of any number one pick in WNBA history, but with Moriah Jefferson likely out, Plum will be forced into minutes and is a great value. Alex Montgomery is another value play to love who will fill in for the Currie and Jefferson role at guard. She has shown upside recently, putting up 30.5, 14.7, and 20.6 in her last three games. The 30.5 is more of an outlier since she had a season-high 10 rebounds in that contest, but at a price of $4,300 FD/$4,700 DK, she is another value I would have interest in on the Stars. It is tough to rank them, but Plum was the number one pick, and they are starting to get her the ball (with Jefferson out, she has a 31.9% usage rate compared to Montgomery’s 10.9%). In the two games with Jefferson in but no Currie, Plum had 19.3% and 15.3% usage rates, while Montgomery’s usage was at 17.6% and 13.8%. Again, I think the 31.9% could be an outlier, but they are trying to get Plum more and more involved, and I prefer her for the cheaper price but will have exposure to both. The other guard in this offense is Kayla McBride, who should continue to have a nice usage and leads the team in 12.7 field goal attempts. She is certainly another tournament guard to target on this team.

The last player worth discussing on this team is Isabelle Harrison, and if you look at her game logs, it says it all. She is a very high-upside/low-floor type of player that I strictly leave to tournaments, but at a price of $4,700 FD/$6,900 DK, the upside is enough where I want exposure to her. Harrison has a 21.3% usage (third-highest among active players on Stars), 8.9 field goal attempts per game (second-highest among active players on Stars), and 5.1 rebounds per game (most on the team). Harrison is a tournament player you want exposure to, and in a matchup against the Fever, the question is whether to go over or underweight on the field. I can’t answer that for you, but for me in this matchup, I think my plan is to go overweight. I do love the value on the Stars side of the ball, but one concern is the pace of this game. The Fever are the slowest-paced team in the league, and they’re playing against the third-slowest paced team. This will lead to fewer possessions and opportunities for points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and fantasy goodness.

Elite Plays: Kelsey Plum, Alex Montgomery
Secondary Plays: Kayla McBride, Isabelle Harrison (GPP)

Indiana Fever

INJURY NOTE: Shenise Johnson is ruled OUT according to Fever twitter account. This will likely bump up some of the guards

Candice Dupree is the only forward I will be looking to target on the Fever, and she is as steady as they come, churning together between 19-31 fantasy points all season long. She is someone I like mixing on my rosters with some high-upside players because of the built-in, safe floor she has to go along with a bit of upside. I am not in love with Dupree, but sometimes it is safe to eat some guaranteed points, and that’s what Dupree can do you for you in a matchup against the third-worst team in defensive rating (and that only has one win this season). The Indiana guards are a bit tricky. Wheeler is clearly the more consistent option but is priced up more, but Shenise Johnson and Tiffany Mitchell are two guard plays that I think have the best price and upside of the guards. Then falls in Briann January, who has been struggling a bit but is priced down.

I rank the guards as Johnson, Mitchell, Wheeler, and January, but that is based on looking at their price and upside. I don’t love these guards compared to others because of the game’s slow pace. This team is not giving me any type of Disco Fever to roster, and it will probably be the team I have the least exposure to.

Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Candice Dupree

Dallas (-3) @ Chicago – 169 Total

Dallas Wings

Dallas has an interesting team with tons of guards that I have interest in. They’re in a a golden matchup against Chicago, who is allowing the most fantasy points per minute to guards on the year at 0.83. I’ve been getting exposure to the Dallas guards all year, and they have done well for me. It also helps to target a Chicago team that is second in pace, right near Dallas, who is fourth in pace. Chicago is the ranked 8/12 in defensive rating, so this Dallas team is one I want to get a ton of exposure to. First is Skylar Diggins-Smith, who leads the NBA in minutes and has been one of the most consistent fantasy assets this year. She is the most expensive guard, but for good reason. I normally don’t pay up for guard and focus on getting in my stud forwards, but there is good reason to pay up for Diggins-Smith. Since there is one fewer guard than a forward on both sites, it can lower her ownership compared to the stud forwards. Alisha Gray is the rookie of the month in June and honestly is a strong candidate for rookie of the year with what she has been doing. Her price tag of $5,300 FD/ $7,300 DK is more than reasonable for a player who just cranks out a solid performance every game. People may look at her and say she doesn’t have upside blah blah blah, but for that tag, if you are guaranteeing me 26.86 FanDuel points (which is what she is averaging in her last five games), sign me up.

Karima Christams-Kelly is the last guard I would play on this team and is a good value at $4,600 FD/$6,600 DK. I think I prefer her more on FanDuel at that price and based on the players around her, but she is a player I would like to get a little exposure to. Even so, there are other guards I would prefer in that price tier. Glory Johnson and Theresa Plaisance are the two forwards I would consider rostering on Dallas. Chicago struggles against bigs, and Glory Johnson has nice upside to bounce back here for $6,200 on FanDuel. I prefer her there than on DraftKings at $10,500. Plaisance is someone I don’t think I will get a ton of exposure to, but in a good matchup for bigs, I think sprinkling her could work on this slate. With such a high-paced game, I could see getting exposure to multiple Dallas players and feeling comfortable with my lineup.

Elite Plays: Skylar Diggins-Smith
Secondary Plays: Glory Johnson (FD GPP), Alisha Gray

Chicago Sky

Here is another team with a lot of value guards with Cappie Pondexter in the concussion protocol; we don’t officially know her status, but we expect her to be out. Courtney Vandersloot put on a show the other day, and I expect high ownership but is now $5,600 on FD and $7,900 on DK, which is not a bargain like the other day. She is still a top guard to target on this slate and should have a great game in this spot. Dallas is a team that can struggle against guards, so targeting these Chicago guards in this matchup with Pondexter being out is key. Pondexter leads the team in usage, and with her out, it gives a lot of opportunity to many of these plays. Vandersloot had a season high 30.9% usage and shot 11-for-16 from the field, although I really don’t see that happening again. We can’t forget Allie Quigley, who is a similar play as Courtney Vandersloot but has had a higher usage throughout her career.

For #TeamGameTheory, it makes sense to go Quigley over Vandersloot in tournaments just because of the ownership difference, as I would expect people to chase Vandersloot’s big game. The value play at guard is Tamera Young, who is a nice bargain at this price tag compared to others in her range. Young has a higher usage than both Quigley and Vandersloot this year to go with a a cheaper price tag and is shooting 11.3 attempts per game, only 0.4 behind Quigley. Young is also shooting only 38.9% from the field this year, which is .16% below her career average. You would assume she has some positive regression coming in the second half of the season. Personally, I think Young is the better point-per-dollar play of all the Chicago guards. Young for $4,300 might have some real nice upside here and at $6,200 at DraftKings is still a nice value, but FanDuel is where I have more interest. Now that we have moved past the guards and hopefully you have not fallen asleep yet, it’s time to get pumped for this big day of WNBA! So back to the forwards, which should be Dolson, Breeland, and Boyette as main targets. I will pass on Boyette, but Breland and Dolson are both options that have provided big games. Even though they are tough to predict, the way I normally approach them is sprinkle them throughout my lineups if they fit, but I think they have such similar upside I just go with Breland because she is cheaper. I also think in this fast-paced game Breland will have opportunities to show off that jumper and use her energy on the court to snag a ton of rebounds. Give me Breland over Dolson on point-per-dollar on both sites.

Elite Plays: Tamera Young
Secondary Plays: Allie Quigley, Courtney Vandersloot

Connecticut (-4) @ Seattle – 169 Total

Connecticut Sun

Connecticut is a team that has provided a lot of production as of late with Morgan Tuck being out. There was talk that she might be back last game and she did not play, so I would not expect her to get massive run in this game. I am probably going to do a lot of rambling about this game, but bear with me. Alyssa Thomas has been a player just pumping out great scores left and right for me, and in a matchup against Seattle, I think she is in a great spot for another good performance. The question is what to do with her at that price tag. She is in a similar range to Jonquel Jones, and Jones struggled last time in this matchup. The reason why is that she was in foul trouble and only played 25 minutes, acquiring five fouls. Breanna Stewart even said last game that the plan was to try and get Jones into foul trouble, but if Jones doesn’t get in foul trouble, she could have a massive game. Jones leads the league in rebounds and gets a matchup against a team ranked fourth out of 12 in rebounding percentage. Seattle also defends forwards better than centers, which is a plus for Jones if she keeps her hands to herself. Alyssa Thomas has a higher usage than Jones but has a lot of different ways to produce fantasy points. Alyssa Thomas also says her favorite player is LeBron James. She has watched a lot of film on him and tries to model her game after him, and if you watch this game, you might even see her use LBJ’s spin move in post. I didn’t say she is LBJ but just figured that was something worth noting I have heard watching games. Thomas for $7,800 FD/$11,100 DK is starting to feel expensive, but she has a great floor producing and is averaging 34 FanDuel points per game. I will likely have exposure to both Jones and Thomas. I think they are both great plays.

There is only one more play I like on the Connecticut side of the ball, and that is the other Thomas. Jasmine Thomas is the other I’m targeting in this matchup against Seattle. I am not scared of Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird on the defensive end of the floor, so expect the Sun to let Jasmine Thomas get a ton of opportunities in this matchup. Jasmine had a career high 29 points last game out against Seattle and I think we can go back to the well on her here and expect a good performance. All the other Suns guards I will likely pass on, mainly because I think there are other better value plays at guards and I prefer paying up for the expensive options on the Sun.

Elite Plays: Jasmine Thomas, Jonquel Jones
Secondary Plays: Alyssa Thomas

Seattle Storm

Breanna Stewart has been on a heater. I doubted her in a tough matchup against LA and she still came through and in a matchup against Connecticut, which I expect to be competitive. I will have to have some interest in Stewart. The Sun are not the best at defending forwards and Seattle is the second-to-last paced team going up against the third fastest paced team in the league in Connecticut. Stewart has a 28.5 % usage this season and averaging 42.42 FanDuel points in her last four games. Her lowest in the last four was 37 against Connecticut, which maybe keeps ownership a little lower, but I think Stewart is one of the studs you are going to want to have exposure to. Jewell Loyd has been struggling recently and we are getting her at a cheaper salary for $5,900 FD/$8,300 DK. Loyd has also been getting lessons from Kobe Bryant, so the question is do you want exposure to an under-priced, high-usage player that is ranked fifth in the league in shot attempts? I shouldn’t have to answer this for you, but the answer is yes!

If I must pick one of these fringe forwards on Seattle like Langhorne and Clark, I think I will play Clark to save some salary. She can put up enough points and if I need to save some salary at Forward I don’t mind her. The other issue with Langhorne is yes, she is consistent, but the upside seems limited compared to Harrison and Breland, who are around the same price tier. If I like my roster and feel like I want less risk and just a safe 20 points, I will go with Langhorne, but if I am looking for more upside, I would prefer to go to Harrison and Breland, who both have 40-point upside.

Sue Bird is the last player I want to mention on Seattle. For $5,300 on FanDuel I prefer other options, but on DraftKings, $7,300 is too cheap, and I will get my exposure to her over there where the three-point bonus will benefit her, as well.

Elite Plays: Breanna Stewart
Secondary Plays: Jewell Loyd, Sue Bird (DK)

Atlanta @ Phoenix (-7.5) – 161 Total

Atlanta Dream

Atlanta has had some good guard play recently but draws a matchup against Phoenix, who is ranked third out of 12 in defensive rating. Phoenix also gives up the fewest fantasy points per minute to guards in the league. Tiffany Hayes has had a good season and is currently a starting guard in the All-Star voting, but I think at her price tag and in this matchup, I prefer other plays on this slate. If I went any guards in this matchup, it would likely be Clarendon or Sykes. I know Clarendon has shown HUGE upside for only $5,600 FD/$7,600 DK, but I think fading her if you are playing a couple of lineups is a good idea. I am assuming people will chase this game log, and in a tough matchup she does have downside. I will probably playing a lot of lineups, so I am assuming I will chicken out of my full-on fade and get some exposure and just be underweight, but I won’t know until I build my lineups. I want to go back to the well on Sykes, but now that she is priced up, it would seem like if I played any of these Atlanta guards, going to Clarendon makes the most sense because of her upside.

I think I will be really underweight on these Atlanta guards because they are priced up, but Clarendon and Sykes are most appealing on DraftKings if I had to pick one site to roster them. Sancho Lyttle being back throws a wrench back into things and will hurt some of these Atlanta plays who are now priced up, but I think there are some to take advantage of. DraftKings currently has Sancho Lyttle as out, but she played last game, so don’t buy into that. With Lyttle back I do worry about Elizabeth Williams’s upside, especially in a matchup against Griner. Griner should give Williams some issues inside and priced up at $5,800 FD/ $8,300 DK. I think Williams should score in the lower 20s, but I don’t see a 30-point outing from her, and I think I would rather buy on Glory Johnson for $6,200 on FanDuel. If she fits as a last spot play that you feel is safe and rounds out your roster, sure, I don’t hate it, but on FanDuel specifically, I think Glory is the better tournament play because she has the better matchup and worse game logs could drive down ownership. Damiris Dantas is now hurt by Lyttle being back and is no longer a good value play.

Elite Plays: None
Secondary Plays: Elizabeth Williams, Layisha Clarendon, Brittney Sykes

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Phoenix Mercury

Brittney Griner should dominate Atlanta on the boards going up against the second-worst team in the league at rebound percentage and the team with the fastest pace in the league. Griner is also ranked sixth in the league with 8.9 rebounds per game, and I expect an easy double-double bonus in her future on DraftKings in this matchup. The questions with Griner are, will we have the money to pay for her? And with so many value forwards to consider, will you want to even if you can afford it? I think this is a great matchup, and if Griner has one of those massive games, you are going to need her to win. She has only struggled in tough matchups like LA, MIN, and (oddly enough) DAL. Atlanta should be a cakewalk for her, and I expect Griner to have a good game. If you have the money, it is certainly realistic that for her to be the highest-scoring play of the night.

The addition of Monique Currie has added some depth to help Diana Taurausi, which has hurt her performance a bit but dropped her price on FanDuel. At $5,600 on FanDuel, I don’t mind buying low on her in a tournament. I’m not in love with the play, but it makes sense to buy low on DraftKings for $9,600. I will pass, because there are too many other options I would prefer to play, especially the value plays before going Taurasi. Monique Currie could be an interesting value guard at $3,700 FD/$4,900 DK. Is there tons of risk here? Yes. But in a GPP, Currie has shown when she gets the minutes to bust out for a massive game. If we think everyone gravitates to the Chicago and Stars value guards, this could make her unowned. Currie had 24.4 FDP in 23 minutes against ATL earlier in the season, but that was on another team, and I am concerned about the minutes. If you are running a ton of teams, I wouldn’t mind getting some exposure, but there are better values on this slate than Currie. I would likely buy Currrie on FanDuel at $3,700 and then go Danielle Robinson on DraftKings at $5,000 so I could get exposure to them where they are cheapest if I wanted to take this route.

Elite Plays: Brittney Griner
Secondary Plays: None

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