WR vs. CB Matchup Analysis: Week 6
One of the keys to NFL DFS success is locating the highest upside at the wide receiver position. Which wideouts have the easiest matchups against the opposing secondaries? Which receivers will fly under the radar and make the difference in large-field tournaments? Each week this NFL season, ChrisGimino will explore his favorite WR plays on the slate, with the sort of insight and knowledge that only he can provide!
Julio Jones vs. Brent Grimes / Carlton Davis / M.J. Stewart
Projected with a slate high 44.9 ceiling per the RG projections and coming off an unbelievable stretch of games without a TD when you consider his offensive role and volume, Julio Jones is the Week 6 mega chalk for good reason in very high total game. Jones is ranked #1 in RG consensus value and gets a trio of highly beatable cornerbacks that could expose his upside. Likely CB Brent Grimes is washed, allowing 7 targets per game and a 127.7 passer rating in coverage to date. I’ll be invested in Julio more so than the field and I’ll sleep like a baby even if his stretch of disappointment continues.
Mike Evans vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans checks in with the 3rd highest ceiling projection on the main slate and 3rd ranking in RG Consensus Value Rankings. If and when he sees Desmond Trufant in coverage, he’ll tower over him with a 5 inch height advantage. He also has an advantage in height adjusted speed. Trufant leads the Falcons DBs with 7.4 targets per game and Bucs QB Jameis Winston loves to target his big body prototypical outside guy in Evans. The Falcons struggle to rush the passer and Jameis is substantially better when the pressure is off. Evans is a high upside play and likely the most popular pairing with Winston in GPPs.
Chester Rogers vs. Jets
Rogers is a lower ceiling volume driven play, with a projected ceiling of just 22.95. The Jets will be missing a few DBs and will slide in guys like Parry Nickerson and Darryl Roberts to fill the void left by Buster Skrine and Trumaine Johnson. The Colts are the most pass-heavy team in the NFL right now and will face a defense that will likely force them back to the air yet again. With a number of targets including the heavily targeted Eric Ebron banged up, the targets have to go somewhere. This individual matchup sets up as a volume situation where Luck can rely on his low ADOT slot against a fill-in slot DB with a 114.5 passer rating allowed on limited action to date.
John Brown vs. Malcolm Butler
Priced right on DK and coming into the game with a healthy 27.25 projected ceiling, take a look at the Premium Usage App Air Yard Share for Brown the last 3 Weeks:
That is in the ballpark of 50% for 3 straight weeks. His individual matchup against Malcolm Butler is top notch for this type of player. Butler has been targeted 7.6 times per game and has allowed a 139.7 passer rating in coverage this season. Butler has been charged with a slate high 384 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. Brown is a great value.
Robert Woods vs. Denver
Bradley Roby has not performed up to expectations this season, and Robert Woods has been leading the way in opportunity for a talented and high powered Rams passing attack. Brandin Cooks has a higher ceiling, but Woods ceiling of 29.6 and high leverage score of 1.71 make him very attractive in GPPs. QBs are attacking Roby at a high rate of 7 targets per game, and he has allowed a 125.5 rating in coverage and 3 touchdowns.
A.J. Green vs. Steelers
This one isn’t complicated. Joe Haden, while he has played well this season with just a 67.4 passer rating allowed, is still getting targeted 6.8 times per game. The Bengals have been moving him around the formation and he has been efficient when targeted. His production premium is +20.5 and he commands a #3 dominator rating of 35%. His projected ceiling of 32.96 makes him one of the highest upside WRs on the slate.
Keenan Allen vs. Browns
Allen commands a 26.7% overall share of targets in this offense, but last week climbed back up into the 35% range for this first time this season. There is upside for Allen to hit huge games in any matchup, and this week he’d be doing it at exceptionally low ownership. T.J. Carrie, E.J. Gaines, and to a lesser extent Denzel Ward are not must avoid spots for me yet. Carrie is the most exploitable and Ward has been the most targeted. At the end of the day, the volume is what we are chasing and less so the matchup. This group has done well this season, but anytime we have a high caliber WR at low ownership against a middling set of talents like Carrie and Gaines… we must attack.
Antonio Brown vs. Anyone
This is simply a reminder that Antonio Brown can break the slate and won’t be all that popular. In these scenarios, we must carefully consider if the matchup warrants him being overlooked. While there are some yellow flags, there are no red flags. I also want to point out the matchup for Juju Smith-Schuster. He has Dennard and his 109.2 passer rating allowed to contend with, and is finally projected at a reasonable ownership for the first time in a while. Both of these Steelers WRs have high ceilings and won’t be owned enough to match that upside.
Julian Edelman vs. Kendall Fuller
This could be an eruption spot for Edelman. Fuller has fallen off this season and allowed the 14th most yards (255) and 2 touchdowns to date which is good for a 118.1 passer rating allowed in coverage. This is a game total of 60 people… Edleman is getting it going in a big way in what looks like a high-quality matchup.
Tyreek Hill vs. Patriots
Hill ranks 17th in the NFL in expected points added among pass catchers, and currently leads the Chiefs into a high total environment with a team-leading 27.5% share of air yards. He’s been an explosive and highly valuable player for the team that is capable of slate changing performances. His matchups are not particularly notable for their quality, and perhaps Travis Kelce is the better overall Chiefs receiver to target here. With that said, his QB seems to be playing well with a 117.7 Independent QB rating and over 1500 air yards. His projected ceiling of 34.06 is 6th highest on the all week slate.