XFL Primer - DFS Roster Construction, Strategy, & Scoring Overview
CAN YOU SMELL WHAT ‘THE ROCK’ IS COOKIN’!??
While that lingering odor is likely just the steaming pile that was what the USFL last spring, we are actually encouraged about the prospect of the 2023 XFL product under the guidance of the man himself, Dwayne Johnson. While the previous iteration of this league launched in 2020 right into the beginning stages of a global pandemic that resulted in a shutdown after just five weeks, the XFL took a year off, re-grouped, and looks to be in solid shape to build a sustainable alternate football league for us to enjoy each Spring.
Unlike the USFL last season, the XFL games will be played in the actual cities the teams represent, which should make for much better game atmospheres as opposed to a depressing neutral site that routinely drew less fans than a middle school basketball game. Arlington (HC: Bob Stoops), Washington DC (HC: Reggie Barlow), Houston (HC: Wade Phillips), Orlando (HC: Terrell Buckley), San Antonio (HC: Hines Ward), Seattle (HC: Jim Haslett), St. Louis (HC: Anthony Becht), and Vegas (HC: Rod Woodson) all have teams with fresh, shiny new logos.
The XFL is wasting no time at all in terms of scheduling, as we kick off this Saturday, just a few days after the Super Bowl. All XFL regular season games will be televised on national TV and they are staggered across Saturday and Sunday each weekend. Eight teams, four games per weekend – all island games. This setup makes for a weekend long sweat every main slate, and plenty of time to adjust lineups between games (and also showdown slates). There is big money up top this week on DraftKings ($100k to first)…
…and at RotoGrinders we will have all of the XFL content and projections that you need to take down a big tournament! Our XFL product will be part of the Combo or NFL package.
Now without further ado, let’s get into some football!
Rule Differences from NFL
First, let’s take a look at the major rule differences compared to the NFL, and how they will actually impact how we approach daily fantasy.
Clock: The XFL will have a 35 second play clock, as opposed to the 40 second clock in the NFL. Not a huge deal but they are trying to limit dead time between plays and get teams playing at a bit faster pace. Also the game clock will start following incomplete passes and out of bounds plays prior to two minute warning in either half (also known as a “running clock”). This rule will limit overall plays in a game – we think it’s very possible, if not likely, that league average plays per game is right around 60. Similar to college football, the clock will stop after a first down when the clock is under two minutes at the end of the 1st half or the game. This is just another rule designed to keep games more interesting for a longer period of time – allowing teams to move the ball faster with less game clock in hurry up situations.
Extra Points: Following a touchdown, teams have the option of a one point play from the 2-yard, a two point play from the 5-yard line, or a three point play from the 10-yard line. This rule does not change much for fantasy purposes except we trim a few points off kickers for showdown purposes with the lack of extra points. The three pointer likely only be used in late game situations, but it does theoretically make an 18-point game a “two-score game” forcing teams to be less likely to fully waive the white flag in late-game scenarios.
Alternative to Onside Kick: Teams can still onside kick if they like, but another option is to try a 4th and 15 from their own 25-yard line (after a score of course and ONLY in the 4th quarter). If you convert, you keep the ball; if you don’t, the other team gets it where the play ends. During this type of play, full player stats should be accumulated and also gives teams a direct path to keep a late game push rolling without having to rely on that perfect bounce of an onside kick.
Shootout Style Overtime: Overtime in XFL is kind of like a penalty shootout in soccer. But instead of five shooters for each team, it’s three plays from the 5-yard line for each team. Alternating plays at the 5-yard line, the team who has the most scores after three series is the winner. If tied, play is continued until the tie is broken. Players only can accumulate fantasy points in overtime for scoring (two points each) via a pass, rush, or reception (no fantasy points for receptions or yards).
Double Forward Pass: Forward passes completed behind the line of scrimmage allow for an additional forward pass across the line of scrimmage. We did not really see this used much at all in the five games teams played in 2022. Largely can ignore this rule but just wanted to point out that it does exist and does provide some marginal flexibility in trick play design.
In summary, the rule changes won’t really change how we play daily fantasy or construct lineups. However, it pushes out the limits of what is considered a comfortable lead, as there is a more realistic path to bigger comebacks late. With all of that said, the QB play in this league will likely be fairly middling, making this potentially just wishful thinking that a team can come back from a 16-18 point deficit late in the 4th quarter.
Roster Construction
Now, let’s talk about how lineups are constructed.
For the NFL, lineups consist of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, and 1 D/ST.
In the XFL, lineups consist of 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR/TE, 2 FLEX, and 1 D/ST.
The major takeaway here is that we are getting a lot of flexibility with our XFL daily fantasy lineups, which is great considering it’s only an 8-team league and this will drastically reduce potential for duplicated lineups. Tight ends are likely going to be ignored for a majority of teams, as we are not forced to consider them here (which could leave them to be interesting, cheap contrarian GPP plays). However, some teams, such as the Arlington Renegades, will likely target their tight end heavily so certainly there will be a few in play each week depending on price.
Another key point is that we only have to play 1 RB, allowing us to load up on four high upside wide receivers. If RB play and rotations are anything like we have seen in the past in these leagues, the 4 WR builds will likely become fairly standard once large RB pricing inefficiencies are phased out after a game or two.
Now that we have some of the basics down, how should you approach Week 1 lineup building?
Given that we have very limited concrete news, very little (or zero?) dedicated beat writers with boots on the ground, and no official team depth charts as of five days before kickoff, the first thing is to understand the context of the mean projections. Week 1 will be the lowest confidence level we have in the projections, in the sense that there are extremely wide ranges of outcomes for most players depending on how playing time and usage shakes out. In the large-field tournaments, don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table (many of the $5,000-$6,000 WRs can compete directly versus the $9,000 WRs) and stray into the second level of players for a given team. Once we get some actual usage data, our confidence in projections will grow each week.
Creating rules that limit playing negatively correlated players together in the same lineup will be key. Stacking will be important, but you may not want to be overly focused on making sure you have a “bring back” on the opposing team until we are more confident in player roles as this is a good way to kill a low owned stack by trying to be too perfect.
We will get into a lot of these lineup building topics and more on our weekly premium XFL show at RotoGrinders. Best of luck this season!
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