Yahoo NFL Expert Picks: Week 11
Every week this NFL season, you’ll find expert picks for Yahoo contests below. Brit Devine will provide his top plays at every position to help build strong lineups in any game type for this week’s NFL slate. You’ll learn the reason behind the picks so you can be confident setting your lineups for this week’s contests.
Russell Wilson vs. Atlanta Falcons $37
Analysis: It’s always tough to spend this amount on a quarterback at Yahoo with their tough pricing, but if you want to spend it’s clear to me that Wilson is the best spot. He’s at home against the Falcons who rank 24th in pass DVOA this season and allow an above average success rate to opposing wide receivers per Sharp Football (25th best). Why are receivers the key?, because Seattle has three deadly ones that should be the focus of a volume based pass game as the Seahawks appear to have very little run game right now. The Seahaks lost top cornerback Richard Sherman last week, which should allow the Falcons to have an easier time moving the ball, and is one of my favorite games of the week to go over the total.
Joe Flacco at Green Bay Packers $20
Analysis: Finding the cheap quarterback that does well is one of the main keys to winning on Yahoo, so I am taking a leap of faith this week and hoping that Flacco can be elite for me. The Packers are 23rd in Pass DVOA while being 11th in DVOA against the run, so it’s safe to assume one would attack them through the air. The Ravens needed a bye week, hopefully helping Flacco get over his early season back issues and hopefully letting Danny Woodhead return to the team as well. The Packers are well below league average in success rate allowed to RB targets (25th), WR’s (23rd), and TEs (30th), providing solid opportunity for Flacco to find success after having a week off.
Kareem Hunt at New York Giants $34
Analysis: Andy Reid is 16-2 off a bye week and gets a cupcake matchup against a Giants team that appears to have quit on their head coach. The Chiefs are setup to steamroll a Giants defense that is allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing running backs, is ranked 25th in Rush DVOA and has allowed 82 points over the past two weeks. With the Chiefs setup to dominate, I expect Hunt to go back to seeing plenty of work as the Chiefs are unlikely to be playing from behind, making Hunt an attractive target for 20+ touches.
Mark Ingram vs. Washington Redskins $28
Analysis: The Saints are an offensive powerhouse right now as one of the truly balanced and dynamic teams in the league. Defenses have no clue what is coming on any play, and while the Redskins season numbers on defense aren’t bad, this looks like a total mismatch. The Saints have an elite defense that is giving up just 12.25 points per game over their last four games, allowing the Saints to rush 30.7 times per game this season, fourth most in the league. They have an elite offensive line as well that is giving them the most adjusted line yards per run per Football Outsiders as well as allowing the lowest run stuff percentage in the league. Play a Saints running back this week, this is not the Drew Brees show anymore until noted otherwise.
Mike Evans at Miami Dolphins $28
Analysis: Cam Newton just lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns on Monday night with receivers that pale in comparison to the Buccaneers. We now have Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball, but even that shouldn’t slow down Evans much as he should easily be the top option this week against a Dolphins defense that is allowing the highest success rate in the league to wide receivers. The Dolphins also rank 26th in DVOA against a team’s top option which should see Evans matchup against PFF’s 115th ranked CB out of 116.
Alshon Jeffery at Dallas Cowboys $23
Analysis: Jeffery has faced what we would consider an above average to elite cornerback in all but one game so far this season, and is still one of the best fantasy producers at the position. The Cowboys are allowing successful plays to wide receiver targets 56% of the time (26th best in league) per Sharp Football and ranks 19th in both pass DVOA and DVOA against the #1 wide receiver per Football Outsiders this season. In one of his easier mathcups all season, look for Jeffery to have a big game at a reasonable price.
Jamison Crowder at New Orleans Saints $12
Analyisis: It’s tough to find players with 24 targets in their last two games at any price, let alone one who is near minimum price on Yahoo. The Saints defense is legit, but Crowder should find the “easiest” individual matchup of any of their wide recievers, as he should matchup against slot cornerback P.J. Williams for the majority of his snaps. Williams is good but not great compared to the other corners on the team and I have little doubt that the Saints will put up plenty of points, leading to a positive pass game script for a team that just lost their starting running back last week in Rob Kelly.
Jimmy Graham vs. Atlanta Falcons $17
Analysis: I usually like minimum priced TE’s on yahoo, but Jimmy is a pretty easy play this week. He has six touchdowns over his last five games as the clear redzone option for an offense that has no run game. The Falcons are 21st in DVOA against the Tight End and while they have only allowed one touchdown against the Tight end this year, the only “good” tight ends they have faced this season are Gronk and ASJ. Jimmy finds the endzone yet again this week, so get him on your team.
Mercedes Lewis at Cleveland Browns $14
Analysis: So it takes a leap of faith to click on Lewis this week, and it’s a much better idea to spend three extra dollars to use Graham, but it’s undeniable that you can attack the Browns via tight ends. The Browns rank 30th in DVOA against the tight end so far this season, are allowing 58% of passes to tight ends to be successful per Sharp Football (28th in the league), and are allowing the third most fantasy points per game to the position. The Browns have an elite run stopping defense as well, which should theoretically force the Jaguars to try to pass a little more on the road this week, and with Lewis being a big redzone target, has a solid chance to get into the endzone.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals $13
Analysis: The Broncos have faced three straight impressive offenses in the Chiefs and Eagles on the road and then the Patriots at home last week. I’m not going to hold a few bad performances against them at this price when they host the Bengals at home this week who aren’t exactly the offensive juggernaut of their three previous foes. The Bengals have the fourth highest adjusted sack rate allowed on the season per Football Outsider and the eight worst pass blocking efficiency per PFF, providing plenty of pass rush opportunities for us.