Will the U.S Enter a Recession in 2026? - Check the Polymarket Odds
The Polymarket recession market boils a massive economic question down to a single trade: Will the United States experience a recession by the end of 2026, as defined by this specific contract? On Polymarket, the number you see is the story. As of December 2025, the “Yes” side is trading around 28¢, implying a roughly 27% chance based on current market pricing.
That price isn’t a forecast, a promise, or an official call. It’s simply where buyers and sellers are meeting right now. Before you read too much into a chart screenshot, do a quick reality check: open the rule card, look at the spread, and ask whether the move actually lines up with new economic data, a scheduled release, or credible reporting. Recession markets have a habit of moving first and forcing everyone else to explain it later.
TL;DR Summary
- Polymarket allows users to trade event contracts on whether the U.S. meets this contract’s recession criteria by the end of 2026.
- The “Yes” price reflects the market’s implied probability. As of December 2025, that sits near 27%.
- The contract resolves if either GDP turns negative for two straight quarters or the NBER declares a recession.
- Prices shifted throughout 2025, alongside other economy-focused markets like inflation, gold, and Treasury yields.
Price Is a Signal, Not a Guarantee
Polymarket prices move because people trade, not because the market suddenly found “the truth.” Sometimes prices move on real economic news. Other times, they move just because one trader made a big bet in a market with very little activity.
Before treating any number like a severe outlook, run through a fast checklist:
- Look at the spread: A wide gap between buy and sell prices means the headline number may not be tradable in practice.
- Check liquidity: If there isn’t much money in the market, don’t overreact to sudden odds changes.
- Read the resolution rules: This contract is settled by its written criteria, not cable news commentary.
Details like GDP revisions, seasonal adjustments, and which Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimate is used can all matter more than people expect.
Does Polymarket expect a recession in 2026?
Right now, the market is leaning “No”, with “Yes” as the underdog. That can change quickly in macro markets. A single data release, revision, or unexpected headline can reprice things in a hurry.
Since this contract launched in late September 2025, the “Yes” side has traded as high as the mid-40¢ range before drifting down into the high-20s by year’s end. That isn’t a verdict; it’s the same question being re-evaluated over time as new information hits.
What happened in 2025?
There’s no better way to understand today’s markets than by looking at recent examples. Polymarket launched a similar contract in January 2025 titled “U.S. recession in 2025?” Like most live markets, prices moved throughout the year as news and sentiment shifted.
The market stayed open through the final days of December 2025, ultimately showing a 99% chance of “No”, with $11.4 million in total trading volume.
Late in the year, the outlook for a recession in 2025 remained largely unchanged. While issues such as rising unemployment, slower wage growth, and affordability pressures persisted, they were not enough to push the economy into recession. By late December 2025, economists broadly viewed recession risk as low, aligning with the market’s dominant “No” pricing.
How Polymarket’s Recession Contract Resolves
At a high level, this market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met within the contract window:
- GDP Path (BEA): Two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate, quarter-over-quarter) between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026.
- NBER Path: The National Bureau of Economic Research publicly announces that a recession occurred in 2025 or 2026, with the announcement coming no later than the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Because the BEA data goes through advance estimates and revisions, timing matters. If a quarter remains negative on the latest estimate as of December 31, 2026, the market can remain open until the Q4 2026 advance estimate is released.
How to Read This Rule in Under a Minute
- What actually triggers a “Yes”: GDP data, an NBER announcement, or either?
- Which GDP estimate counts: advance, revised, or latest?
- What’s the exact date window for resolution?
- What happens if a negative quarter is revised upward?
These details explain why a market can stay unresolved long after headlines move on.
Trading Volume on Polymarket’s Recession Odds
Volume shows engagement, not correctness. Traders might be leaning “No,” hedging positions, or flipping in and out around small moves. As of December 2025, this market shows roughly $107K in total volume, enough to be worth watching, but still thin enough that a single order can move the price more than expected.
How Polymarket’s Economic Markets Differ
Economic markets tend to be trickier than headline political boards, not because they’re smarter, but because they’re tied to scheduled releases, revisions, and official announcements.
You’re often trading the calendar as much as the data. An advance estimate can hit the tape, only for a later revision to quietly change the picture. That’s why reading the rules matters just as much as watching the price.
These markets also overlap with politics. When economic sentiment shifts, it often shows up here before it reaches polls or public narratives.
Other Economy Markets on Polymarket to Watch
The recession question is just one slice of the economic board. You’ll also find markets like:
- Gold closing price targets
- Monthly inflation readings
- 10-year Treasury yield levels
- Long-term Bitcoin policy questions
- Quarterly U.S. real GDP growth estimates
Each one comes with its own timing quirks and resolution details.
What Actually Matters Going Forward
If you’re following this market into 2026, focus on a few core things:
- Live pricing: The number reflects current trades, not a locked-in outcome.
- The rulebook: Resolution depends on BEA data or an NBER declaration, nothing else.
- Release schedules: Advance estimates and revisions can move prices without new “news.”
- Market mechanics: In thin books, prices can move fast on limited volume.
If you’re trading, you’re mostly positioning around release dates and revisions, not making a one-time call on the economy.
Polymarket Recession FAQs
Does Polymarket predict a recession by 2026?
As of December 2025, the “Yes” side implies about a 27% chance. That figure can swing sharply around GDP releases and revisions.
How are recession odds determined on Polymarket?
Through the trading price, with resolution based on either consecutive negative GDP quarters or an official NBER recession announcement within the contract window.
Are Polymarket economic markets reliable?
Yes, they’re reliable at showing traders’ real-time payments. For formal economic analysis, remember that inputs like quarterly GDP data are revised.
Is Polymarket available in the U.S.?
After the 2022 CFTC action, Polymarket restricted U.S. users. Later reporting in 2025 referenced a potential regulated path tied to eligibility checks. Always rely on the platform’s official availability and documentation before participating.
What other prediction market apps offer U.S. recession 2026 markets?
Several of the best prediction market apps, including Kalshi, offer U.S. recession markets and other economic prediction markets in the United States.