Betting Preview for #22 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama
This weekend we have an SEC matchup that could potentially have CFP implications down the line. The winner of the SEC probably gets into the CFP regardless, but Texas A&M already has one loss on the season to another CFP hopeful in Clemson. It not impossible that a two-loss SEC champ could be left out so I look for a good effort from A&M.
The Offense
Both teams have blown away all their inferior opponents. The only blemish on either record is A&M’s loss to #3 Clemson and that is nothing to be ashamed of. A&M has averaged 596 yards per game (5th) and Alabama has averaged 545 yards per game (14th). In addition, both schools are having no issue running the ball. A&M is averaging 285 ypg (9th) while Alabama is averaging 236 ypg (27th). What about the passing game? Both quarterbacks are averaging over 300 yards per contest and are having no issue putting up points. A&M quarterback Kellen Mond shows an IQR of 104.9 while Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa has an outstanding 146.3 for 6th best in the nation. On paper, the offenses seem identical statistically. I don’t see a huge advantage either way. If I had to pick one, I will side with Alabama at home and given Tagovailoa’s IQR advantage.
The Defense
Both defenses have respectable numbers with one looking better against the pass and the other against the run. Alabama is giving up 101 ypg on the ground which is good for a rank 24th, while A&M is only yielding 87 ypg for 14th. The pass defense numbers are not as flashy. A&M is letting opponents throw for 251 ypg (93rd) while Alabama is doing slightly better with 201 ypg (57th). However, I do not want to suggest these pass defenses are bad. Let’s keep in mind that both run defenses are in the top 25, which may suggest teams are going to attack them through the air. Especially on the Alabama side, as they rank 7th in team passing efficiency defense at 91.8. A&M ranks 90th in this category with a score of 139.3. Again, I don’t see a huge advantage for either team. I will go with Alabama given the pass defense efficiency numbers and the fact that they are allowing less passing yards per game.
The Pick
Texas A&M +26
On paper, this game looks closer than the 26 point spread. I use statistics in my handicapping run down in addition to other situational factors such as the eye test, “the situation”, etc… Texas A&M passes the eye test for me. I watched them play Clemson and I thought they looked like a team that can compete with the NCAA elites such as Clemson and Alabama. However, I do not want to discount anything Alabama does. They are an ELITE program with ELITE coaching, but I think 26 points is too much. I foreshadowed in an article earlier this year that I rarely pick against Alabama, but this is one of the few times on the year I will. I will be backing Texas A&M +26. It’s a little frightening this game is in Tuscaloosa, but I am confident this game stays close. If anything, I believe it will be close and Alabama pulls away in the second half to win by 17-20.
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