College Football DFS Week 4 – DraftKings and FanDuel Main Slate Value Plays
DraftKings and FanDuel will each feature 10-game main slates beginning at noon on Saturday. There are eight games in common between the noon slates, and two games unique to each one. Let’s evaluate the must-start locks, stars to target, and bargain players who you can use to fill out your lineups.
Note: There are a few key differences for roster construction purposes between DraftKings and FanDuel. While both sites provide for a lineup consisting of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, and a SuperFlex (includes QB), you must also fill a traditional Flex spot on DraftKings. While FanDuel gives you $60,000 to fill seven roster slots ($8,571 per slot), DraftKings gives you $50,000 to fill eight roster slots ($6,250 per slot). DraftKings is also a full point per reception, while FanDuel is 0.5 points per reception
12 PM Main Slate+
Common Games
- Tulane at Ohio State (-37), Total = 70
- Boston College (-7) at Purdue, Total = 66
- Georgia (-14.5) at Missouri, Total = 65
- Texas A&M at Alabama (-26.5), Total = 61
- Kansas State at West Virginia (-16), Total = 61
- Notre Dame (-7) at Wake Forest, Total = 60.5
- Clemson (-16) at Georgia Tech, Total = 51.5
- Nebraska at Michigan (-17.5), Total = 50.5
DraftKings Only
- Kansas at Baylor (-7.5), Total = 56.5
- Pittsburgh (-3.5) at UNC, Total = 48.5
FanDuel Only
- Arizona (-6.5) at Oregon State, Total = 75
- TCU (-3) at Texas, Total = 47.5
Locked and Loaded Values
QB
- Skylar Thompson ($5,500 DK; $8,100 FD) announced himself to the Big 12 at the end of last season, leading Kansas State to dramatic comeback wins over Texas Tech and Iowa State, and beating #10 Oklahoma State on the road. Thompson has risen from 78th to 39th in IQR this season, and his dual-threat nature under Bill Snyder keeps defenses honest as he’s averaged 11.5 rushing attempts in his first six regular season starts and over four yards per carry on his 106 career rushing attempts.
Thompson struggled in Week 2 against a Mississippi State defense that ranked in the Top 10 last season and ranks in the Top 20 this season against the pass (<70 QBR against), and ranked 21st last season in rushing yards per attempt by Quarterbacks (1.63). Upcoming opponent West Virginia has been outside of the Top 100 in passing defense in both seasons (>89 QBR against), and ranked 88th against QB runs last season (3.46 yards per attempt). The comeback kid, Thompson, is the ideal SuperFlex this week as the Wildcats try to chase down Will Grier and the Mountaineer offense.
RB
- Pooka Williams Jr. ($5,700 DK Only) has the look of a dominant runner as a true freshman despite his small stature (5’11”, 170 lbs.). Pooka is a blazing fast runner who also possesses elusiveness (7th in broken tackle rate) and deceptive strength (16th in yards after contact per attempt). Through just two games for Kansas, Pooka ranks 20th overall in total rushing yards, and 10th in yards per rushing attempt (9.4). Upcoming opponent Baylor ranks 157th this season in yards per rushing attempt allowed. I’m expecting a third consecutive 100-yard effort and 25+ fantasy point game from Pooka to begin his career.
WR
- Irv Smith Jr. ($4,400 DK; $7,300 FD) is the starting Tight End in arguably the best offense that the Alabama has ever had. With 12 targets, Smith has seen nearly as many looks as explosive top receivers Jerry Jeudy (15) and DeVonta Smith (14). He’s also recorded a touchdown and at least 40 receiving yards in the first halves of Alabama’s two blowout wins over Arkansas State and Mississippi. I’m expecting this game against a Jimbo Fisher coached team to be slightly more competitive, for Smith to play more of the game, and for him to take advantage of a Texas A&M defense that allowed more passing attempts (61), completions (52), and yards (505) to opposing Tight Ends than any other defense last season.
Counting (On) Your Stars
QB
- Anthony Brown ($9,200 DK; $10,000 FD), Will Grier ($10,500 DK; $10,600 FD), and Dwayne Haskins ($10,700 DK; $10,300 FD) rank 1st, 2nd and 4th in IQR, but Grier leads the nation in on-target throw rate (90%) and averages 3 more yards per attempt (12.7) than Haskins. Brown is averaging 13 yards per attempt, but just 77% of his throws have been on-target. Haskins is a good cash game play in Urban Meyer’s return, but Brown and Grier have the higher ceilings.
RB
- AJ Dillon ($9,000 DK; $9,800 FD) has the fourth most rushing yards in the nation, and has broken more tackles (18) than any other runner for a 30.5% broken tackle rate (8th, 1 spot behind Pooka Williams). Dillon finished 7th in rushing yards and 6th in total broken tackles last season while averaging a healthy 3.6 yards after contact per attempt. Purdue has merely been an average defense against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry. Dillon should see a lot of work in a projected one score game.
WR
- David Sills ($8,000 DK; $9,300 FD) was out-targeted by teammate Gary Jennings Jr. (137 to 104) last season, but he is the target leader early on this year (16 to 13) and is less expensive than Jennings on both sites. The 6’4” Sills is the preferred red-zone weapon, out-targeting Jennings 31 to 21 inside of the opponent’s 25-yard line since the beginning of last season and catching 13 touchdowns (to Jennings two) on 23 catchable targets. Sills scored two touchdowns in a win over Kansas State last season, and I’m expecting similar production in the rematch.
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